Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a rebound followed by a decline, with gold and silver prices showing fluctuations while palladium and platinum have decreased in value [1][2]. Precious Metals Market Summary - Gold prices in London rose by 1.49% to $4,071.10 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold increased by 3.39% to ¥953.20 per gram, with SHFE gold holdings up by 0.39% to 347,600 contracts [1][2]. - Silver prices in London increased by 6.23% to $52.01 per ounce, and SHFE silver rose by 7.95% to ¥12,351 per kilogram, with SHFE silver holdings up by 9.89% to 763,000 contracts [1][2]. - Palladium prices in London fell by 5.46% to $1,385 per ounce, and platinum prices decreased by 3.59% to $1,532 per ounce [1][2]. Economic Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has led to the anticipation of key economic data releases, including GDP revisions and employment reports, which may impact market sentiment [3]. - Hawkish statements from several Federal Reserve officials have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in December, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent inflation concerns [4]. - The Trump administration's plans to expand food tariff exemptions and reach trade agreements with countries like Switzerland may influence economic conditions and commodity prices [4]. Long-term Outlook for Gold - The "Trump 2.0" agenda, focusing on tariffs and tax cuts, is expected to stabilize, while the potential for interest rate cuts may provide strong support for gold prices in the latter half of the year [5]. - Key upcoming events include the release of the non-farm payroll report and GDP revisions, which are critical for assessing economic health and potential impacts on gold prices [5]. - Central bank gold purchases are projected to drive global gold demand to a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, up 1.5% from 2023, providing a solid foundation for gold prices [5][6]. - China's central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves, with a reported 7,409 million ounces (approximately 2,304.457 tons) as of the end of October, reflecting ongoing demand for gold [6].

近期金银价格有所反弹但未突破前高，我们认为主要原因包括： 1）美国政府最长停摆结束，关键数据有望陆续发布。当地时间11月12日晚，美国总统特朗普签署联邦 政府临时拨款法案，为大部分联邦机构按现有水平提供资金至2026年1月30日，结束持续43天的美国史 上最长政府停摆。据美国商务部公告，第三季度GDP修正值将于11月26日21:30公布，10月份个人收 入、支出及PCE指数将于当日23点发布；美国劳工部统计局（BLS）表示，下周四21:30将发布9月非农 就业报告，11月21日则发布9月实际薪资等数据。 2）多位美联储官员鹰派发声，打压12月降息预期。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆表示进一步放松政策空 间有限，必须谨慎行事，副主席菲利普·杰斐逊也强调在接近中性利率时稳步推进政策是合理的；波士 顿联储主席柯林斯认为由于通胀仍高且政府停摆导致关键数据缺失，短期内不宜进一步降息，维持现有 利率可能更合适，进一步宽松可能阻碍通胀回归目标；明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利指出，经济活动 韧性超预期，对降息必要性持谨慎态度；克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克明确表示，当前利率仍不足以限制经 济过热，需要保持政策限制性立场，预计通胀压力将持续至 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector has experienced a rapid price decline, with gold and silver prices dropping significantly after two months of strong gains. Key factors include recent US-China trade agreements and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains optimistic due to expected monetary policy changes and central bank purchases, with global gold demand projected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 2023 [5]. - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the precious metals sector, including Zijin Mining International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others [5]. Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, London spot gold fell by 5.05% to $4,011.50 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold dropped by 7.79% to ¥921.92 per gram. Silver prices also saw declines of 9.50% and 6.60% respectively [9][10]. US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with the target range now at 3.75%-4.00%. There are indications of internal disagreements within the Fed regarding future rate cuts [4][5]. Holdings and Trading Volume - The report notes a decrease in trading volumes for both gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with gold holdings down by 12.54% to 346,200 contracts and silver holdings down by 17.11% to 694,300 contracts [10][41]. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis (spot-futures) is at -$1.90 per ounce, an increase of $41.25 from two weeks prior, while the domestic gold basis is at -0.90 yuan per gram, up by 3.00 yuan [61][62].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing a sustained price increase for gold and silver, driven by recent economic data and monetary policy changes [2][3]. Price Movements - London spot gold rose by 1.91% to $3663.15 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 1.83% to ¥830.56 per gram, with holdings up by 2.24% to 448,900 contracts [2][3]. - London spot silver increased by 3.66% to $42.24 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver rose by 1.62% to ¥9971 per kilogram, with holdings up by 4.69% to 867,300 contracts [2][3]. - London spot palladium rose by 1.86% to $1151 per ounce, and platinum increased slightly by 0.07% to $1393 per ounce [2][3]. Economic Factors - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for August showed only a 22,000 increase, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [3]. - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking a resumption of the easing cycle [3]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates expectations for two more rate cuts this year, with varying opinions among officials regarding the extent of future cuts [3]. Future Outlook - The "Trump 2.0" policy framework, including tariffs and tax cuts, is expected to stabilize, while the "rate cut trade" will provide strong momentum for gold prices [4]. - Key upcoming events include the release of the U.S. core PCE price index and employment data, which may influence market sentiment [4]. Long-term Trends - Central bank gold purchases are expected to provide strong support for gold prices, with global gold demand projected to reach 4974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 2023 [6]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August [6]. - The listing of Zijin Gold International is anticipated to elevate the valuation of the entire precious metals sector [6]. Investment Recommendations - The precious metals industry is rated positively, with a focus on specific stocks such as Zijin Gold International, Shandong Gold, and others [7].

Key Points - The precious metals sector has seen significant price increases for gold and silver, with London spot gold rising 2.81% to $3429.15 per ounce and Shanghai gold increasing 1.20% to ¥785.12 per gram [2][5] - London spot silver rose 2.84% to $38.80 per ounce, while Shanghai silver increased 1.98% to ¥9386 per kilogram [2][5] - The decline in Shanghai gold holdings by 7.94% to 390,000 contracts contrasts with a 1.62% increase in Shanghai silver holdings to 773,300 contracts [2][5] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to increased expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference have led to increased bets on rate cuts [2][3] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump poses a challenge to the Fed's independence, with potential legal implications [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent large-scale attacks by Russia on Ukraine, are influencing market sentiment and may lead to new sanctions against Russia [4] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by expected interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with central bank gold purchases expected to support prices [4][5] - The World Gold Council projects global gold demand to reach 4974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 2023, driven by strong central bank purchases [4][5] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, with reserves reaching 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July [4][5]

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a significant drop of 2.80%, settling at $3,393.7 per ounce after reaching a record high of $3,534.1 per ounce [1] - Market analysts noted limited reactions to geopolitical events, such as the upcoming video conference on Ukraine, and highlighted increased uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy due to the search for a new Federal Reserve chair [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, several institutions remain optimistic about gold's long-term performance, citing factors like "rate cut trades" and geopolitical tensions as strong support for gold prices [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has classified major gold products, including one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, as import items subject to tariffs, which initially caused gold prices to spike above $3,500 per ounce [1] - The Trump administration is expected to clarify that gold bars should not be subject to tariffs, with an executive order anticipated to address misinformation regarding tariffs on gold and other specialty products [1] - China's central bank reported purchasing 1.86 tons of gold in July, marking nine consecutive months of gold purchases, which aligns with market expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, indicating potential for further increases in precious metal prices [5]

Group 1 - Industrial Fulian reported a record high revenue of 360.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, with a net profit of 12.11 billion yuan, up 38.6% [2] - In Q2, the revenue exceeded 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 200.34 billion yuan, a 35.9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.88 billion yuan, up 51.1% [2] Group 2 - A-share indices collectively rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year, up over 2% for the week [3] - The market is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, with quality tech assets expected to yield significant excess returns in Q3 [3] Group 3 - Major foreign investment projects are progressing steadily, with new policies to encourage foreign investment being implemented [4] - Cities like Wenzhou, Dalian, and Xuzhou have GDP growth rates exceeding 6%, with potential to join the "trillion-dollar club" by year-end [4] Group 4 - In July, the consumer price index (CPI) in Guangdong turned positive, rising 0.5% month-on-month, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% [5] - Hong Kong saw a record number of registered local companies, exceeding 1.5 million, with significant direct investment and job creation [5] Group 5 - Nearly 50 A-share companies have disclosed interim dividend plans, with major firms like China Mobile announcing substantial dividends [6] - The Hong Kong Investment Management Company is focusing on nurturing local startups and investing in quality enterprises [7] Group 6 - The A-share market is expected to face some resistance in the short term but remains in a bull market, with industry rotation accelerating [8] - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of 900.8 billion HKD, indicating a strong preference for Chinese concept stocks [8] Group 7 - The new science and technology bond policy has led to a significant issuance of 880.66 billion yuan in three months, with a low average coupon rate [21] - Gold futures prices reached a historical high, driven by geopolitical factors and central bank policies [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the A-share market despite external uncertainties, particularly focusing on the military industry and gold stocks as key investment opportunities driven by geopolitical tensions and economic indicators [1][4][6]. Group 1: Military Industry - The military sector experienced a significant surge, with defense and military-related stocks leading the market, including companies like Aileda and Lijun Shares, which saw a 20% increase [2][4]. - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the intensified military actions in Ukraine and the Middle East, have positively impacted the military sector, leading to a robust market performance [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for the military industry remains strong, driven by strategic goals to build a world-class military, indicating a new growth phase for the sector [5]. Group 2: Gold Stocks - Gold stocks collectively strengthened due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts, with companies like Chifeng Gold and Shandong Gold seeing increases of over 6% [6][7]. - Recent U.S. labor market data showed lower-than-expected job growth, which has fueled speculation about potential interest rate cuts, thereby boosting gold prices [9][10]. - The article suggests that the combination of interest rate cuts and ongoing economic policies will provide strong support for gold prices in the medium to long term [10]. Group 3: Humanoid Robotics - The humanoid robotics sector saw significant gains, with companies like Songlin Technology and Zhejiang Rongtai reaching new highs, driven by positive industry forecasts and major procurement contracts [11][14]. - The upcoming World Robot Conference and the announcement of large-scale orders for humanoid robots are expected to further enhance market sentiment and attract investment [14][15]. - Analysts note that while the sector shows strong growth potential, caution is advised due to potential volatility from capital outflows [15].

Market Performance - The three major indices showed strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.46%, the ChiNext Index up by 0.5%, and the STAR Market 50 Index gaining 1.22% [2][3] - Over 3,700 stocks in the two markets experienced an increase, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.50 trillion yuan [4] Military Industry - The military sector performed exceptionally well, with notable stock increases: North China Long Dragon (301357.SZ) up by 20%, Construction Industry (002265.SZ) up by 10%, and others like China Marine Defense (600764.SH) and North Navigation (600435.SH) also rising [5] - CITIC Securities indicated that the fundamentals of the military sector are beginning to recover, with catalysts expected to continue delivering results into the first half of 2025, suggesting a turning point in performance and ongoing investment value [5] Gold Sector - The gold sector rebounded as international gold prices strengthened, with stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) and Shandong Gold (600547.SH) seeing significant gains [6][7] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts and supporting gold prices [7] Robotics and AI Sector - The humanoid robot concept gained traction, with stocks such as Wuzhou New Spring (603667.SH) rising by 10% and Changsheng Bearing (300718.SZ) increasing by 8.88% [8] - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in 2025 will showcase over 150 humanoid robots, emphasizing the integration of AI with the real economy, which is expected to drive growth in this sector [8] - The State Council approved the "AI+" action plan, promoting the development of intelligent products, indicating a potential for explosive growth in companies deeply involved in AI technologies [8] Declining Sectors - Some sectors, including photovoltaic and film industries, saw declines, with stocks like Happiness Blue Ocean (300528.SZ) dropping over 11% and Shanghai Film (601595.SH) falling by 7.87% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent US non-farm employment data for July fell significantly below expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut outlook, which is expected to support gold prices in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 4, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 3.46%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (8.98%) and Shandong Gold (8.15%) [3] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) increased by 3.00%, with a latest price of 1.2 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 6.76% over the past three months, ranking it in the top 1/6 among comparable funds [3][4] - The Gold Stock ETF's trading volume was active, with a turnover of 11.7% and a transaction value of 4.2544 million yuan [3] Group 2: Fund Performance - The Gold Stock ETF has achieved a net value increase of 17.74% over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [4] - The fund's highest single-month return since inception was 16.59%, with a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 31.09% [4] - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.10, placing it in the top 2/6 among comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [4] Group 3: Index Composition - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index accounted for 66.02% of the index, with Zijin Mining (10.84%) and Shandong Gold (10.02%) being the largest contributors [5][7] - The index includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [5]