黄金股票ETF大涨9.47%、矿业ETF大涨8.58%、有色60ETF大涨8.44%、黄金基金ETF大涨4.57%点评 10月9日，节后首个交易日，两市主要股指盘中强势拉升，上证指数涨1.32%报3933.97点，站稳3900点 续创10年新高；深证成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨0.73%，中证A500涨1.59%。A股全天成交2.67万亿元。 受国际金价大涨影响，黄金股和有色板块涨幅居前。 黄金股票ETF（517400）收盘大涨9.47% 矿业ETF（561330）收盘大涨8.58% 有色60ETF（159881）收盘大涨8.44% 黄金基金ETF（518800）收盘大涨4.57% 【上涨原因分析】现货黄金历史性突破4000美元/盎司大关；美国政府关门已超一周、地缘政治局势、 央行持续购金等多因素利好 国庆期间伦敦金现货黄金价格继大幅冲高，创历史新高。截至10月8日收盘，伦敦现货黄金报收4040.42 美元/盎司，自9月30日以来累计上涨207.49美元/盎司，涨幅5.41%。 美国联邦政府自10月1日起停摆，受此影响，美国劳工统计局未能按计划于3日公布月度就业数据统计报 告，非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发 ...

10月8日，现货黄金升破4000美元/盎司关口，为史上首次，今年累计涨超52%。 此轮黄金大涨或存在几个重要的驱动因素。其一是对美联储降息预期的升温，以及对于美国此轮经济增 长的怀疑。疫情后的持续财政扩张，在支撑美国经济的同时，也弱化了美元本身的公信力，这使得黄金 成为了稀缺的避险资产。 其二则是地缘政治等风险事件的持续发酵。例如，美国国会参议院9月30日晚未能通过年度拨款法案， 时隔7年后美国政府再度停摆。 据浙商证券分析，本轮停摆主要由于两党对医保福利支出"是否加入预算案"产生分歧，共和党拒绝将医 保内容加入预算，因其"会给非法移民提供医保"。此次分歧也侧面展示了美国政府债务高企的现状，引 发市场进一步担忧。 国庆休市结束后，A股有色板块接棒上涨。 在金价大幅走强的带动下， 今日开盘，A股有色板块纷纷大涨，黄金股票ETF（517400）开盘大涨 7%、黄金基金ETF（518800）大涨近5%，矿业ETF（561330）大涨4%。 银河证券分析称，节后A股市场延续震荡抬升格局，其中近期一系列事件将刺激有色金属板块行情向 上。"国庆"期间大宗商品多数走强，贵金属（黄金、白银）同步上涨。虽然避险资产表现分化，如 ...

来源：WIND 国庆期间黄金再度大涨，站上4000美元/盎司大关。浙商证券表示，此轮黄金大涨或存在几个重要的驱动因素。其一是对美联储降息预期的升温，以及对 于美国此轮经济增长的怀疑。疫情后的持续财政扩张，在支撑美国经济的同时，也弱化了美元本身的公信力，这使得黄金成为了稀缺的避险资产。其二则 是地缘政治等风险事件的持续发酵。例如，美国国会参议院9月30日晚未能通过年度拨款法案，时隔7年后美国政府再度停摆。据浙商证券分析，本轮停摆 主要由于两党对医保福利支出"是否加入预算案"产生分歧，共和党拒绝将医保内容加入预算，因其"会给非法移民提供医保"。此次分歧也侧面展示了美国 政府债务高企的现状，引发市场进一步担忧。我们认为，黄金的这些主要驱动因素仍然存在，建议投资者持续关注黄金基金ETF（518800），寻找回调后 布局机会。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut signal a favorable environment for gold investments, particularly in gold ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold Fund ETF (518800) rose by 1.22% on September 29, while Gold Stock ETF (517400) increased by 3.5% on the same day [1] - COMEX gold prices have reached a new high, peaking at 3849 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut, with officials expressing differing views but overall leaning towards dovish stances [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that increasing risks in the job market were key factors in the decision to cut rates [1] - Vice Chairman Bowman emphasized the necessity for further rate cuts due to the fragility of the job market [1] - Bessent urged the Fed to consider a rate cut of 100 to 150 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The commencement of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, increasing macroeconomic uncertainties abroad, and the global trend of "de-dollarization" are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1] - The investment value of gold remains promising, with recommendations for investors to consider Gold Fund ETF (518800) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - As of last Friday (September 26), London spot gold closed at $3,758.78 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $74.13 per ounce, representing a 2.01% rise. The gold price reached a high of $3,791.08 and a low of $3,683.28 during the week [1] - The first interest rate cut has been implemented, and although there are differing opinions among Federal Reserve officials, the overall stance remains dovish, with expectations for further rate cuts [1][5] - Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the U.S. government faces a potential short-term shutdown, which may drive gold prices higher [1][5] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Dynamics - In the U.S., the Markit manufacturing PMI for September fell to 52, slightly below the expected 52.2, while the services PMI was at 53.9, also below the expected 54. The composite PMI initial value was 53.6, indicating a relatively high level [2] - The second revision of Q2 GDP in the U.S. was adjusted upward by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, with consumption and investment also revised upward, showing stronger economic resilience than previously expected [2] - The unemployment claims decreased to 218,000, below the expected 235,000, indicating a stable job market [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve officials have shown a divide in their views, with some calling for significant rate cuts, while others do not support further reductions. The overall sentiment leans towards the necessity of additional cuts due to increasing risks in the job market [3][4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a projected GDP growth rate of 3.9% for Q3, reflecting strong consumer spending and improving real estate data [3] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Impacts - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. could negatively impact GDP by approximately 0.1 percentage points per week, but most losses are expected to be recouped once the government reopens [4] - Trump's policies, including tariffs, have contributed to inflationary pressures and increased market uncertainty, which may support gold prices [6] - The recent signing of the GENIUS Act legalizing stablecoins could have lasting effects on dollar credit, potentially influencing gold prices depending on the stability of these digital currencies [6] Group 5: Long-term Gold Outlook - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" and increased demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to provide upward momentum for gold prices [7] - China's central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, indicating a sustained trend in central bank gold purchases [7]

今日A股全天震荡走强，三大指数集体上涨。沪深两市成交额2.16万亿。截至收盘，沪指涨0.90%，深 成指涨2.05%，创业板指涨2.74%。个股层面上，全市场超3500只个股上涨，呈现普涨行情，赚钱效应 好。从板块来看，券商板块集体爆发，新能源板块继续走强，有色金属板块全天走高，此外半导体产业 链午后回暖。大盘在经历了一段时期的高位震荡后，今日的普涨行情有助于提振市场情绪和风险偏好。 发改委今日表示将适时加力实施宏观政策，当前全市场成交量依然活跃，叠加国内政策加码，经济复苏 预期，中长期看A股整体上行趋势有望延续。 新能车ETF（159806）今日上涨4.42%。 消息面上，固态电池再迎政策利好。八部门《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》提出加 快全固态电池材料等高端产品应用验证。工信部发布《电子信息制造业2025—2026年稳增长行动方 案》，支持全固态电池等前沿技术方向基础研究。固态电池国内外产业化加速，设备端将率先受益。 需求方面，国内进入传统旺季。根据国盛证券，储能方面，上半年全球储能电芯出货226GWh （+97%），国内订单超160GWh（+220%）。目前国内储能电芯的需求十分 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to continue benefiting from liquidity easing and can hedge against uncertainties brought by tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, 2025, COMEX gold futures have risen nearly 8% in September [1] - The key drivers for this increase include concerns over European fiscal stability and the recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, marking the first cut in 2025 [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The U.S. job market faces downside risks, and inflation has not exceeded expectations, suggesting further rate cuts may occur within the year [1] - Ongoing uncertainties in the global landscape, including political turmoil in Europe and Japan, have contributed to the rise in gold prices since August [1] Group 3: Tariff Impact - The recent initiation of Section 232 tariff investigations by the U.S. on specific industries adds to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, making gold a potential hedge against volatility in risk assets like the stock market [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed strength today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% to 3853.64 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.80% [1] - The semiconductor industry chain remained strong, with significant gains in semiconductor equipment, chips, and related sectors [1] - The overall market sentiment is strong, with over 4400 stocks rising and less than 900 declining [1] Investment Strategy - The current market is driven more by sentiment and valuation, with a clear structural differentiation, particularly in the STAR Market [1] - Two potential future scenarios are identified: continued active micro liquidity leading to sustained market performance, or macroeconomic improvement allowing for broader market expansion [2][6] - Recommended focus on sectors supported by structural themes and fundamentals, such as chip ETFs and photovoltaic ETFs [1][6] Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond ETF fell by 0.16%, with a 5-day decline of 0.44%, reflecting a weak trend [2][6] - The core factors influencing bonds remain policy-driven, with the central bank maintaining a steady stance on liquidity [8] - Despite short-term pressures on the macro environment, there is a divergence between macro reality and expectations, impacting long-term bond performance [8] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor equipment ETF rose by 9.55% today, with a 5-day change of 21.39%, driven by events such as domestic lithography machine testing and AI demand from Huawei [9] - The long-term investment logic in the semiconductor sector focuses on domestic substitution and self-sufficiency, particularly in critical areas with low domestic production rates [12] - Global semiconductor sales increased by 20.6% year-on-year in July, supported by overseas AI capital expenditure [11] Economic Outlook - The domestic economy faces short-term pressure, but potential recovery in overseas demand due to the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts may benefit export-oriented sectors [5] - The current economic environment is seen as a normal outcome of "anti-involution" policies aimed at controlling supply-side expansion [5] - Key areas to watch include the progress of US-China tariff negotiations and domestic policy statements [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching new highs after a brief pullback following the recent Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by factors such as a weakening U.S. economy, global de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical risk premiums [1][6]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September FOMC meeting, with a vote of 11 in favor and 1 against [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments were hawkish, acknowledging a cooling labor market while emphasizing that the rate cut was a risk management decision [3]. Economic Indicators - The Leading Economic Index for August fell by 0.5% to 98.4, marking the largest decline since April and indicating a continued slowdown in economic activity [6]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts appear to be higher than the Fed's projections, with current rate futures implying rates about 0.5% lower than the Fed's dot plot median for the end of next year [3]. De-dollarization Trends - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves, with China adding gold for the tenth consecutive month as of August [6]. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the lack of progress in U.S. mediation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating violence in Gaza, contribute to the risk premium in gold prices [6]. Investment Opportunities - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains strong, and investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs during market pullbacks [7].

COMEX黄金期货持续新高，盘中突破3785美元/盎司。黄金基金ETF（518800）涨超1%，2025年以来已 经涨超37%。 黄金基金ETF（518800）紧密跟踪黄金价格走势，一手黄金基金ETF对应1克黄金，相当于实物黄金的 持有凭证，T+0交易，场内流动性较好。 平安证券表示，海外宏观不确定性持续，中期黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段。长期来看特朗普上任后， 美元信用走弱的主线逻辑愈加清晰，黄金货币属性加速凸显，持续看好黄金中长期走势。 对于场外投资者，也可以考虑布局相关联接基金（A类000218，C类004253，E类022502），联接基金主 要投资对象为国泰黄金ETF，银行、券商、基金平台都能买， 部分平台1毛钱起购，也是投资黄金的不 错选择。 截至8月15日，「国泰黄金ETF联接A」最近2年、3年业绩均排名同类第一（同类指银河证券黄金ETF （A类）最近2年、3年同类排名分别为1/13、1/12）。 今年以来，随着黄金价格的持续上行，黄金基金ETF获得资金持续流入。Wind数据显示，截至9月22 日，黄金基金ETF（518800）规模超185亿，年内增长近百亿，交投持续活跃。 风险提示：数据来源Wi ...