12月15日，国际金价延续强势表现，伦敦现货黄金站上4300美元/盎司上方。分析人士认为，在美联储降息、地缘政治不确定性延续以及央行持续购金等 因素支撑下，黄金的配置价值凸显。 多因素支撑金价上涨 美国本周将迎来"超级数据周"，美国11月非农就业报告和CPI数据将陆续公布，金价走势备受市场关注。 新世纪期货研报表示，近期金价走势主要受以下因素影响：一是美联储12月会议如期降息25个基点。二是美国通胀数据回落，核心PCE指标回落，市场对 通胀缓解与劳动力市场疲软形成共识。三是机构投资者看多意愿强烈，截至12月11日，SPDR黄金ETF持仓量较上周增加0.25吨至1050.83吨。 展望后市，瑞银认为，黄金仍是有效的风险对冲工具。鉴于黄金是无息资产，美元持续走软有望继续支撑金价。当前地缘政治不确定性挥之不去，美国政 府债务持续上升，而强劲的央行购金数据和投资需求有望延续，多种因素支撑贵金属配置价值。 推荐阅读 加仓，资金大幅涌入！增量资金或将集结 金价重新站上4300美元/盎司 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间12月15日21:43，伦敦金现货价格上涨0.93%，报4339.95美元/盎司。 国际投行近日纷纷重申对 ...

短期看，美联储打开降息通道，驱动黄金的估值中枢上移；长期看，在地缘政治风险、逆全球化趋势和美元信用体系弱化 的背景下，强化了黄金的配置价值。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 A | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159322 | 黄金股票ETF基金 | 1.610 | 0.039 | 2.48% | | 159321 | 黄金股票ETF | 1.516 | 0.032 | 2.16% | | 159315 | 黄金股ETF基金 | 1.625 | 0.034 | 2.14% | | 159562 | 黄金股ETF | 2.160 | 0.044 | 2.08% | | 517520 | 黄金股ETF | 1.981 | 0.040 | 2.06% | | 517400 | 黄金股票ETF | 1.562 | 0.029 | 1.89% | 消息面上，美国联邦储备委员会12月10日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.5%至3.75%之间。这是美联储继 9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。 黄金概念股走强，山东黄 ...

短期看，美联储打开降息通道，驱动黄金的估值中枢上移；长期看，在地缘政治风险、逆全球化趋势和美元信用体系 弱化的背景下，强化了黄金的配置价值。 每日经济新闻 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159562 | 黄金股ETF | 2.164 | 0.048 | 2.27% | | 159321 | 黄金股票ETF | 1.516 | 0.032 | 2.16% | | 159315 | 黄金股ETF基金 | 1.623 | 0.033 | 2.08% | | 517520 | 黄金股ETF | 1.978 | 0.040 | 2.06% | | 517400 | 黄金股票ETF | 1.563 | 0.031 | 2.02% | | 159322 | 黄金股票ETF基金 | 1.610 | 0.032 | 2.03% | 消息面上，美国联邦储备委员会12月10日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.5%至3.75%之间。这是美联 储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。 黄金股早 ...

Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价窄幅震荡。伦敦现货黄金收于4，197美元/盎司（周环比-0.5%），国内AU9999黄金收于957元/ 克（周环比0.9%）。 12月5日白宫发布《美国国家安全战略》，进一步强调"美国优先"，或加剧逆全球化趋势。该文件坚守 美国本位主义，"聚焦本土安全、重塑半球主导、调整全球义务"，将美国的持续生存与安全置于首位， 但放弃了"永久主导世界"目标，逐步退出全球事务。此外，文件将"贸易平衡"列为经济安全的重要方 向，美国将优先重塑贸易关系，削减贸易逆差。在美国优先理念下，贸易保护主义或持续，逆全球化或 将损害美元的国际地位，黄金的货币价值进一步凸显。 美联储仍处于降息大周期之中。北京时间12月11日凌晨2点将迎来美联储12月利率决议，当前利率期货 显示，市场预期12月降息25bp的概率达88%，届时还需关注联储对明年降息节奏的指引。 数据来源：Wind，华安基金，截至2025/12/5 品情况及听取销售机构适当性意见的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金 投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基金产品。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：江钰涵 Ø ...

Core Insights - The recent trend shows significant inflows into the Jianxin Shanghai Gold ETF, with a total of 172 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, indicating strong investor interest in gold assets [1] - The Federal Reserve is leaning towards a rate cut in December, which could further support gold prices, as multiple institutions predict an increase in gold prices if a 50 basis point cut is confirmed [1] - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold is expected to persist due to geopolitical tensions, high U.S. debt, and elevated stock valuations, despite potential short-term price adjustments [1] Group 1 - The Jianxin Shanghai Gold ETF (518860) has seen net inflows for 7 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 172 million yuan [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports a rate cut in December, citing stable inflation and concerns about the labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed may initiate a rate cut in December, with further cuts expected in 2025, potentially lowering the benchmark rate to the 3%-3.25% range [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongjin Company, gold prices have been rising since 2022 due to geopolitical factors and increasing U.S. debt, with central bank purchases being a major demand driver [2] - Some central banks are temporarily reducing gold holdings as their gold-to-reserve asset ratio exceeds targets, but overall, there is still potential for increased gold allocation by global central banks [2] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that cyclical demand and structural trends will continue to drive gold and silver prices upward [2]

特朗普政府已加速美联储新主席的遴选进程，美国财政部部长贝森特已确定五位最终候选人名单，包括 白宫经济顾问哈塞特、前美联储理事沃什、美联储现任理事沃勒、美联储副主席鲍曼及贝莱德高管里克 ·里德，这些候选人的货币政策倾向各异，但整体上偏向宽松。值得注意的是，贝森特特别指出美联储 新主席人选可能在2025年圣诞节前公布，这一"提前官宣"若成真，将在很大程度上架空现任主席鲍威 尔，使2026年上半年的货币政策决策陷入"双头领导"的混乱局面。 与此同时，美联储高层再现重要人事变动。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克于11月12日意外宣布，将在2026 年2月任期结束时退休。作为"鹰派"代表人物，博斯蒂克一直主张在可预见的未来维持利率不变，直至 看到"明确证据"显示通胀持续回落至2%。由于即将卸任，他将不再参与联邦公开市场委员会的利率决 策投票。 转自：期货日报 2025年贵金属市场表现令人瞩目，在全球宏观政策变革与地缘动荡中彰显独特价值。美联储政策预期的 反复及领导层面临更迭成为主导黄金价格的核心变量，其利率路径的不确定性持续重塑黄金的金融属 性，推动金价在波动中屡创新高。这不仅刷新了传统认知，更反映了全球格局深刻变革下资产配置 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price declines following a brief rise above $4100 per ounce, influenced by various economic factors and market sentiments [1][4]. Price Movements - On November 21, the London spot gold price fell by 1%, dropping below $4030 per ounce, before recovering slightly to $4062.65, a decrease of 0.34% [1]. - COMEX gold also saw a decline of 0.37%, settling at $4044.9 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold prices followed suit, with Shanghai Gold Exchange reporting Au99.99 at 924.44 yuan, down 0.59% [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent employment report from the U.S. indicates a mixed sentiment in the market, with both hawkish and dovish perspectives being supported [4]. - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar is attributed to speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, contributing to the current market uncertainty [4]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, long-term demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to factors such as high U.S. debt, elevated stock valuations, and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][5]. - UBS has raised its mid-2026 gold price target from $4200 to $4500 per ounce, citing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong demand from central banks and ETFs [4][6]. - The potential for increased gold demand is anticipated due to geopolitical uncertainties and changes in U.S. domestic policies [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing volatility, currently trading around $4032 per ounce, with related ETFs showing significant declines, indicating potential market repositioning by investors [1] Market Performance - COMEX gold futures are down, with the China Gold ETF (518850) falling by 0.73%, the Gold Stock ETF (159562) down by 2.86%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) decreasing by 5.23% [1] Economic Indicators - Traders are awaiting the preliminary PMI data for November from S&P Global, which is expected to provide insights into the health of the U.S. economy and influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to drop from 52.5 in October to 52, while the services PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 54.8 [1] Market Analysis - The current key variables affecting the gold market are the direction of the U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory [1] - Short-term employment data is suppressing gold prices, but uncertainty in the economic outlook may manifest in future data [1] - If PMI or confidence indices decline, the rebound potential for gold may increase [1] - Overall, while gold prices are under short-term pressure, they are expected to maintain resilience in the medium to long term, especially with central banks continuing to accumulate gold and the possibility of real interest rates peaking by year-end [1]

Macro Strategy - The core view indicates that actual interest rates remain the key anchor for gold prices, with fluctuations driven by macroeconomic policies and geopolitical factors [1][11] - In November, gold prices are expected to be influenced by geopolitical situations, trade negotiations, and macro policies, with a potential for continued high-level fluctuations [1][11] - The CME interest rate futures suggest a widespread expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which may support gold prices [1][11] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses a trading strategy of "long old bonds and short new bonds" based on the behavior of active bond spreads, which typically exhibit a jump during the switching process [2][12] - The active bond spread trading strategy remains profitable, with the maximum spread observed at 9.8 basis points since 2023, indicating a favorable trading environment [2][12] Food and Beverage Industry - The beer sector is currently viewed as being at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand recovery driven by macro policy changes and improved fundamentals in 2024 [4][14] - The report highlights that the beer sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 617.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.99% [4][15] - Key players such as Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer are expected to perform well, with a focus on high-growth segments and defensive strategies [4][15] Healthcare Products Industry - The healthcare products sector showed a year-on-year revenue growth of 18% and a net profit increase of 122% in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend despite individual stock variations [16][17] - Companies like Tongrentang and Minsheng Health are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential in the healthcare market [16][17] Nonferrous Metals Industry - The report notes that industrial metals are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with copper prices expected to strengthen after a period of consolidation due to supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment [5][19] - Aluminum prices have shown an upward trend, supported by supply stability and increased demand, particularly in the context of geopolitical developments [5][19] Media Industry - The media sector reported a revenue of 1,279 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, with the gaming sector showing particularly strong performance [6][20] - The gaming segment's net profit grew by 76% year-on-year, driven by successful product launches and a stable revenue growth trajectory [6][20]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in spot gold prices, dropping below $3900 per ounce, indicates a shift in market sentiment influenced by easing trade tensions and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On October 28, spot gold prices fell to a low of $3886.3 per ounce, marking a decline of over 10% from the recent high of $4381.11 per ounce [1]. - The Shanghai gold futures contract also experienced a notable drop, briefly falling below the critical level of 900 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - Easing trade tensions have led to a reduction in market risk aversion, contributing to the significant drop in international gold prices [1]. - The U.S. economy is currently facing downward pressure, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce a shift towards a rate-cutting cycle, which may weaken the U.S. dollar in the long term [1]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Despite the recent price decline, gold still holds certain investment value, suggesting that international gold prices may not have reached their peak yet [1].