谷歌真的很强。数日前，谷歌发布Gemini3模型，Gemini3 Pro刷新了几乎所有榜单，是目前综合实力最 强，且数学推理、视频生成、代码等单项能力大幅领先的大模型。此外，Nano Banana Pro 是 Google 推 出的由 Gemini 3 驱动的升级版图像生成模型。它具有 4K 分辨率输出，从生成效果上看，目前几乎已经 以假乱真。 11月25日，阿里巴巴财报公布，云业务超预期。阿里云整体收入同比增长34%，其中AI相关产品收入连 续9个季度实现三位数同比增长。过去四个季度，阿里在AI+云基础设施的资本开支约1200亿元。阿里 巴巴表示，将"积极"投资于人工智能能力的提升，不排除在已承诺的三年3800亿元人民币投资之外进行 额外投资。此外，据新加坡媒体报道，新加坡国家人工智能计划（AISG）正在进行一次重大战略调 整，在其最新的东南亚语言大模型项目中，放弃了Meta模型，转向阿里巴巴的通义千问Qwen开源架 构，标志着中国开源AI模型在全球影响力版图中的一次关键扩张。 AI需求方面，中金公司指出，AI应用已经带来了明显的成本节省。麦肯锡调查表示，受访者认为使用 AI可减少9-11%的成本，并涉及到 ...

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金票ETF（517400）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，9月美国非农数据喜忧参半，多份重要数据取消或延迟，使得通胀与政策预期不确定性 较高，美联储12月降息预期反复摇摆；俄乌和谈可能重启，中日紧张关系持续。避险需求利好黄金，部 分对冲了降息预期降温对金价的压制。短期市场聚焦12月FOMC利率预期和美国经济基本面。中长 期"美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价构成一定支撑，或 可考虑逢低分批布局。 长期看，货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下，美元信用体系受到挑战；加上全球地缘动荡频发推动资产 储备多元化， ...

风险提示：金价短期涨幅过快，请关注可能存在的回调风险，投资需谨慎。黄金基金ETF主要投资对象 为黄金现货合约，预期风险收益水平与黄金资产相似，不同于股票基金、混合基金、债券基金和货币市 场基金。如需购买相关基金产品，请关注投资者适当性管理相关规定，提前做好风险测评，根据自身的 风险承受能力购买与之匹配的基金产品。市场观点仅供参考，不代表投资建议。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 美联储12月降息表态上再现鸽派论调，金价反弹，黄金基金ETF（518800）涨超1.7%，资金持续流入， 连续10日吸金超16亿元。 从中长期看，美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球"去美元化"趋势对金价依然构成 利好，长期逻辑未变。感兴趣的投资者可分批逢低布局黄金基金ETF（518800）。 消息面，旧金山联储Daly表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，理由是就业市场突然恶化的可能性更大， 且比通胀飙升更难管理，结合此前纽约联储也表态支持降息，这使得市场对12月降息概率陡升，短暂缓 解了市场对流动性问题的担忧，黄金短线表现走强。 黄金基金ETF（518800）紧密跟踪黄金价格走势，一手黄金基金ETF对应1克黄金，相 ...

（1）海外经济 经济数据上：高频数据显示美国经济增长动能维持韧性，就业市场仍有韧性，房地产市场基本持平。增 长方面，亚特兰大联储GDPNow指示美国三季度GDP增速上行至4.2%。消费方面，上周实际个人消费 季比折年增速的Nowcast持平于3.4%，Redbook零售指数指示11月美国零售同比小幅上升。就业市场方 面，周度首申人数由前值23.9万人降至21.7万人，好于预期（彭博一致预期，下同），但续申人数上升 0.7万人至173万人。地产方面，30年期固定房贷利率上行至6.3%，房贷申请量略有下降，Redfin房屋销 售量基本符合季节性水平。 9月美国非农数据喜忧参半。一方面，9月美国新增非农就业人数11.9万人，大超市场预期（5.1万人）； 对就业市场走势具有一定前瞻性的每周平均时长维持在34.2小时，没有进一步下降；长期失业人群（27 周以上）占比有所回落。但另一方面，失业率在劳动参与率回升的影响下，进一步上升至4.4%，高于 市场预期（4.3%）；9月非农就业的增长仍集中在教育、医疗保健业、休闲和酒店业，增长基础并不广 泛。10月非农就业数据真空期内，民间数据的走弱一度引发市场对美国就业市场的担忧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have raised concerns among investors, indicating a shift from a consistent upward trend to increased volatility and uncertainty in the market [2][4]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently experienced a decline due to several factors, including hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation, which have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has also reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Market sentiment is divided, with some investors locking in profits while others continue to believe in the upward trend, leading to increased volatility in gold prices [4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term caution, the long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic due to ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchasing trends [7][8]. - Central banks continue to show strong interest in gold, with a reported net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, reflecting a 30% increase from the previous quarter [7]. - China's central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves for twelve consecutive months, indicating a sustained demand for gold as a strategic asset [7]. Investment Strategies - Recent tax policy changes in China have made gold ETFs more attractive, as they are exempt from value-added tax, potentially shifting investor interest away from physical gold purchases to more tax-efficient investment vehicles [10]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gold ETFs and other exchange-traded products as a balanced approach to participating in the gold market while minimizing tax burdens [10].

Group 1 - The long-term advantages of gold as a safe-haven and investment asset are becoming more prominent, driven by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and trade tensions, leading to sustained growth in gold and jewelry demand [1] - The gold jewelry industry is experiencing a shift in consumer logic, with a decline in wedding-related demand, a rise in self-consumption, and a split between lightweight and investment demand, indicating a need for brands with differentiated product offerings to meet new consumer needs [1] - Adjustments in gold taxation policies are expected to optimize market investment and consumption structures, encourage regulated trading, enhance the pricing influence of exchanges, and strengthen market supervision, facilitating a transition from decentralized to centralized trading in the gold market [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, the central price of gold is expected to rise, suggesting that investors may consider participating in subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) covering the entire gold industry chain are recommended for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations have led to a significant surge in gold prices, with the spot gold price rising and the Gold Stock ETF (517400) increasing over 2.5%, marking a year-to-date gain of over 75% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) has seen a rise of 2.58% [2]. - Year-to-date, the Gold Stock ETF (517400) has increased by more than 75% [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, with a report from JPMorgan indicating that by Q3 2025, net gold purchases by central banks will reach 220 tons, a 30% quarter-on-quarter increase, equating to an annualized purchase rate of 880 tons [3]. - In September, with an average gold price of $3,668 per ounce, the net purchase volume reported was 39 tons, marking the strongest month of 2025 [3]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, adding approximately 30,000 ounces, marking the twelfth consecutive month of gold accumulation [3]. Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve may dampen interest rate cut expectations, and the end of the U.S. government shutdown could reduce gold's appeal as a safe haven [3]. - However, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions may continue to drive demand for gold as a safe asset, suggesting that gold prices may remain volatile in the short term [3]. - In the long term, the challenges to the U.S. dollar's credit system due to excessive money supply and fiscal deficit monetization, along with increasing global geopolitical instability, are expected to enhance the demand for gold as a secure asset [3]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors optimistic about gold's long-term value may consider the Gold Stock ETF (517400) or the Gold Fund ETF (518800) for investment [4]. - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Index, covering the entire gold industry chain, including mining, processing, and consumption [4]. - The Gold Fund ETF (518800) holds gold spot contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, effectively allowing direct investment in physical gold, with superior liquidity due to T+0 trading [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent net inflow of nearly 1 billion yuan into gold ETF (518800) over five consecutive days reflects growing investor interest amid changing Federal Reserve policies [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation, leading to hawkish comments that suppress interest rate cut expectations [2] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 70% to 42%, primarily due to shifts in voting tendencies within the FOMC rather than economic data [1] Group 2 - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe haven, but ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions may continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets [2] - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile, while long-term factors such as the potential for a Fed rate cut cycle, increasing global macroeconomic policy uncertainties, and trends toward de-dollarization may provide support for gold prices [2] - Investors are advised to consider direct investments in physical gold and gold ETFs (518800) that are exempt from value-added tax, as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [2]

相关机构表示，上周四起，多名美联储官员表态对通胀的担忧，鹰派言论打压降息预期；美国政府停摆 结束，降低黄金短期避险吸引力。但美国政府仍然面临多重问题，宏观环境也存在不确定性，地缘紧张 局势或持续刺激资金的避险需求。预计短期内金价或延续震荡；中长期"美联储开启降息周期+海外宏 观政策不确定性加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价构成一定支撑，或可考虑逢低分批布局。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 ...

资金持续流入黄金基金ETF，黄金基金ETF（518800）连续5日吸金近10亿元。 黄金基金ETF（518800）紧密跟踪黄金价格走势，一手黄金基金ETF对应1克黄金，相当于实物黄金的 持有凭证，T+0交易，场内流动性较好，感兴趣的投资者可以关注相关布局机会。 风险提示：金价短期涨幅过快，请关注可能存在的回调风险，投资需谨慎。黄金基金ETF主要投资对象 为黄金现货合约，预期风险收益水平与黄金资产相似，不同于股票基金、混合基金、债券基金和货币市 场基金。如需购买相关基金产品，请关注投资者适当性管理相关规定，提前做好风险测评，根据自身的 风险承受能力购买与之匹配的基金产品。市场观点仅供参考，不代表投资建议。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 近期金价大幅上涨，触及4200美元后再度进入震荡。 从中长期看，美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球"去美元化"趋势对金价依然构成 利好，长期逻辑未变。 但近期缺乏明显催化，叠加前期上涨节奏较快、短期或将维持震荡。 ...