Core Viewpoint - The metal market experienced a strong opening on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, driven by optimistic macro liquidity expectations, short-term stimulus from downstream inventory replenishment, and long-term changes in global supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical risks [1]. Group 1: Copper - The average price of 1 copper reached 101,970 yuan/ton, increasing by 1,500 yuan, breaking the 100,000 yuan mark and setting a recent high, driven by a tight supply-demand balance and market expectations [2]. - Global copper mine production growth is slowing, with major producers like Chile and Peru facing resource depletion and policy disruptions, tightening supply and supporting price increases [2]. - Strong demand from sectors such as electric grid investment, renewable energy, and infrastructure is expected to surge post-holiday, bolstered by policies promoting appliance upgrades [2]. Group 2: Tin - The average price of 1 tin surged to 387,250 yuan/ton, a rise of 9,000 yuan, marking a 2.38% increase, driven by a combination of supply contraction and explosive demand [3]. - Slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar and tightening export policies from Indonesia and Peru are contributing to a constrained supply environment [3]. - The semiconductor industry's recovery and increased demand from the photovoltaic sector are significant drivers for tin consumption [3]. Group 3: Aluminum - The average price of A00 aluminum rose by 230 yuan to 23,390 yuan/ton, supported by supply constraints, high costs, and recovering demand [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is nearing capacity limits, with limited new capacity and production cuts in regions like Yunnan and Sichuan due to power supply issues [4]. - Demand is gradually recovering in construction, automotive, and packaging sectors, with policies promoting appliance upgrades enhancing aluminum consumption [4]. Group 4: Zinc - The average prices for 1 and 0 zinc increased by 320 yuan to 24,590 yuan/ton and 24,690 yuan/ton, respectively, due to tight supply and recovering demand [5]. - Global zinc mine production growth is slowing, and overseas smelter reductions are tightening refined zinc supply [5]. - Post-holiday recovery in galvanized demand from construction, automotive, and home appliance sectors is driving zinc consumption growth [5]. Group 5: Lead - The average price of 1 lead fell by 25 yuan to 16,750 yuan/ton, influenced by a loose supply-demand balance and slow recovery in downstream sectors [6]. - Stable supply from primary and recycled lead, along with inventory accumulation during the holiday, has increased supply pressure [6]. - Slow recovery in lead-acid battery production and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream users are contributing to weak demand [6]. Group 6: Nickel - The average price of nickel rose by 2,700 yuan to 142,750 yuan/ton, driven by tightening supply and increasing demand [7]. - Uncertainty in Indonesia's nickel export policies and seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines are tightening nickel supply [8]. - Recovery in stainless steel production and surging demand from the renewable energy sector are significant factors driving nickel consumption growth [8]. Group 7: Market Outlook - The strong opening of the metal market is a result of multiple factors, with expectations for a short-term upward trend and internal differentiation [9]. - Copper and tin, characterized by tight supply and emerging demand, are expected to lead the market, while lead may continue to face pressure due to weak fundamentals [9]. - Key variables influencing future metal market trends include actual recovery progress in downstream sectors, inventory depletion rates, global macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical developments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The metal sector on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a significant rally on January 29, 2026, driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic policies, geopolitical dynamics, supply-demand balance, capital flows, and inter-commodity linkages. Group 1: Core Driving Factors - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a dovish stance and reinforcing expectations for rate cuts in the first half of 2026. The US dollar index fell to 96.2, a near four-year low, reducing overseas procurement costs for metals and attracting global capital into the commodity market [1]. - **Domestic Growth Policies**: Continued domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, such as the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and consumption stimulation during the Spring Festival, further boosted metal demand expectations [2]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Easing concerns over supply chain disruptions due to improved conditions in resource-rich areas, although geopolitical uncertainties remain. Silver, with its dual attributes of finance and safe-haven, became a preferred choice for capital allocation [3]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: A "tight balance" in supply and demand was noted, with supply constraints in tin, nickel, and lead due to environmental policies and mining difficulties, while demand surged from sectors like new energy and construction [4][5]. - **Capital Flows**: Increased risk appetite led to significant capital inflows into the commodity market, with metals showing heightened trading activity. The reversal of previously accumulated pessimism quickly drove prices up [7]. Group 2: Price Movements and Commodity Performance - **Price Increases**: Major metals saw substantial price increases, with copper rising by 6,490 yuan (+6.35%), aluminum by 765 yuan (+3.08%), and silver by 1,706 yuan (+5.99%). Gold also saw a notable increase of 87.14 yuan (+7.53%) [1]. - **Commodity Linkages**: Leading commodities like copper and aluminum initiated the rally, boosting market sentiment. Copper reached a new high of 108,000 yuan/ton, while aluminum followed suit due to dual demand from new energy and infrastructure [8]. - **Differentiated Performance**: Various metals exhibited different price responses based on their supply-demand characteristics and market attributes, with tin and nickel showing strong rebounds due to specific supply constraints and demand from new energy applications [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - **Short-term Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain strong fluctuations leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by ongoing stocking activities and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Copper may challenge the 109,000 yuan/ton mark, while aluminum is monitored around the 26,000 yuan/ton resistance level [10]. - **Long-term Perspective**: Structural demand from industries such as new energy and AI computing is anticipated to reshape the market, with copper, aluminum, and tin potentially entering a "super cycle." However, caution is advised regarding potential risks from US government shutdowns and disappointing earnings from tech giants [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Last week, with concentrated events including a hawkish stance from the Fed Chair and an optimistic outcome of China - US consultations, precious metal prices stopped falling and rebounded. However, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened due to optimistic trade expectations and cooling rate - cut expectations, and they are expected to fluctuate mainly this week [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Price Changes**: All precious metal varieties showed price fluctuations. For example,沪金2512 fell 2.53%, COMEX gold fell 2.95%,沪银2512 fell 0.06%, and COMEX silver fell 0.69%. The US dollar index rose 0.8%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB depreciated 0.05% [4][15]. - **Policy Events**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, and the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time. China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and the US reached trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries [15][16][17]. - **Investment and Trade Agreements**: Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US, with energy as the key area. South Korea will invest $350 billion in the US, and the US will reduce the tariff on South Korean cars from 25% to 15% [18]. 3.2 Weekly Review This week, China will release important economic data for October, the US will release the ADP employment report, and Fed officials will speak frequently. Attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and cooling rate - cut expectations, the upward momentum of gold and silver is weakened, and they will mainly fluctuate [15]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price and Ratio Charts**: There are charts showing the ratio of domestic and foreign precious metal spot prices, the relationship between London gold spot prices and the US dollar index, and the relationship between London silver spot prices and the US dollar index [19][21][22]. - **Yield Data**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fluctuated and fell back to 4.38% [25]. 3.4 Position Data - **Domestic Positions**: The net position of Shanghai gold began to rise, with both long and short positions increasing. The net position of Shanghai silver continued to decrease, with both long and short positions decreasing. As of September 23rd, the net long position of CFTC gold slightly increased, and the net long position of CFTC silver continued to increase [28][30][32]. - **ETF Positions**: The positions of SPDR gold ETF continued to decrease, and the positions of silver ETF also continued to decrease [35][37]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase, COMEX gold inventory continued to decrease, Shanghai silver inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and COMEX silver inventory continued to decrease [39][40][42].

| 》伦敦金（现货黄金）CFD(xau) | | | | | | | | > 添加自选 在APP中查看 | | | | 数据来源: 汇通网 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4200 14 1 1 | | | | | 最新价: 4200.14 | | | 开盘价: 4144.30 | | 最高价: 4200.23 | | 最低价: 4140.65 | | +1.40% | | | | | 结算价: -- | | | 持仓量: 0 | | 成交量: -- | | | | 2025-10-15 15:09:00 | | | | | 买 价:4200.14 | | | 卖 价:4200.49 | | 买 量: 0.00 | | 卖 量: 0.00 | | 分时 年线 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 年K | રસ્ત્ર | 159 | 30分 | 603 | LT | 相关内盘期货 | | 用多> | | 15:09 价 4200.14 均 4176.31 幅 1.40% | | ...