贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.80 %，报 1008.54 元/克，沪银涨 6.19 %，报 19438.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4540.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 81.08 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.18%，美元指数报 99.23 ； 白银价格波幅显著增大，关注彭博商品指数调仓以及关税裁决短期对银价形成的短期利空因 素：2026 年 BCOM 指数调仓将从 1 月 8 日开始分批逐步调整，直至 1 月 15 日前后完成。2025 年白银价格录得极为强势的上涨，COMEX 白银主力合约价格在 2025 年 1 月 2 日至 12 月 31 日涨 幅达到 142.17%，在本轮调仓中，跟踪 BCOM 指数的商品基金或 ETF 将会被动减少白银的多头持 仓，对银价形成显著的利空因素。而在关税决议方面，2025 年市场对于特朗普关税政策预期令 海外白银现货流入美国，COMEX 白银库存总量由 2025 年 1 月 2 ...

受投资者获利回吐、短期期货交易多头平仓影响，美国纽约商品交易所黄金、白银期货价格29日大幅下 跌，黄金期价跌幅一度超过4.5%，白银期价跌幅一度接近9%。 瑞银集团29日发布报告说，在全球经济担忧持续以及美国国内政策不确定性等因素影响下，2026年黄金 需求将稳步增长。报告预计，到2026年9月，黄金价格或将达到每盎司5000美元。而美国中期选举前后 任何政治或经济动荡加剧都可能将金价推高至每盎司5400美元。 （来源：新华社） 市场分析人士认为，当天黄金、白银价格下跌只是短期回调，上涨趋势依然存在。未来两天交易走势对 于判断未来几周黄金和白银的价格走向至关重要。如果未来两天出现巨大抛售压力，表明短期市场顶部 可能已经形成。如果未来几天黄金、白银价格强劲反弹，那么29日的低点将成为上涨趋势中最新的"反 弹低点"。 摩根大通和汇丰银行贵金属交易部门前总经理罗伯特·戈特利布认为，2026年黄金、白银价格上涨动力 能否持续，答案在于黄金、白银在全球投资组合中的角色如何转变。他预计，黄金、白银价格将在结构 性支撑的基础上温和上涨。 当天，纽约商品交易所2026年2月黄金期货价格一度跌至每盎司4346.6美元，2026 ...

贵金属日报 2025-12-25 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.23 %，报 1010.30 元/克，沪银涨 1.54 %，报 17211.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4505.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 71.88 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.15%，美元指数报 97.93 ； 昨日公布的美国当周就业数据超预期，对金银价格形成短线的压制因素，美国至 12 月 20 日当 周初请失业金人数为 21.4 万人，低于预期和前值的 22.4 万人，数据公布后金银价格短线冲高 回落。 日前公布的数据显示，美国三季度实际 GDP 年化季度环比初值为 4.3%，高于预期的 3.3%和前 值的 3.8%。但其中较多受到医疗保险价格的影响。价格指数方面，美国三季度 GDP 价格指数为 3.8%，高于预期的 2.7%和前值的 2.1%。美国三季度 PCE 物价指数同比值为 2.7%，高于前值的 2.4%。显示本次经济数据并未 ...

锦泰期货分析指出，近期公布的经济数据指向降息会继续，叠加多位联储官员发声支持12月降息，市场 预期再度转鸽，风险偏好回升利好金银。白银方面，长期供需矛盾导致的缺货也未改变，金银价格的长 期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健，短期调整不改长期趋势，且下方空间相对有限。 消息面上，昨日特朗普再度发声，称将是否支持立即大幅降息作为挑选新任美联储主席的试金石。周二 在《华尔街日报》主办的CEO理事会峰会上，哈塞特被问及如果出任主席，是否会推动总统希望的大幅 降息。他说："如果经济数据显示我们可以这么做，比如现在这样，我认为利率有大幅下调空间。"当被 问到这是否降息意味着超过25个基点时，他回答说："没错。" 12月9日，金价早盘持续走低，盘中一度跌破4200美元后拉升走强，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨 0.45%报4236.6美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.71%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌3.28%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Last week, with concentrated events including a hawkish stance from the Fed Chair and an optimistic outcome of China - US consultations, precious metal prices stopped falling and rebounded. However, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened due to optimistic trade expectations and cooling rate - cut expectations, and they are expected to fluctuate mainly this week [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Price Changes**: All precious metal varieties showed price fluctuations. For example,沪金2512 fell 2.53%, COMEX gold fell 2.95%,沪银2512 fell 0.06%, and COMEX silver fell 0.69%. The US dollar index rose 0.8%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB depreciated 0.05% [4][15]. - **Policy Events**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, and the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time. China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and the US reached trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries [15][16][17]. - **Investment and Trade Agreements**: Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US, with energy as the key area. South Korea will invest $350 billion in the US, and the US will reduce the tariff on South Korean cars from 25% to 15% [18]. 3.2 Weekly Review This week, China will release important economic data for October, the US will release the ADP employment report, and Fed officials will speak frequently. Attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and cooling rate - cut expectations, the upward momentum of gold and silver is weakened, and they will mainly fluctuate [15]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price and Ratio Charts**: There are charts showing the ratio of domestic and foreign precious metal spot prices, the relationship between London gold spot prices and the US dollar index, and the relationship between London silver spot prices and the US dollar index [19][21][22]. - **Yield Data**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fluctuated and fell back to 4.38% [25]. 3.4 Position Data - **Domestic Positions**: The net position of Shanghai gold began to rise, with both long and short positions increasing. The net position of Shanghai silver continued to decrease, with both long and short positions decreasing. As of September 23rd, the net long position of CFTC gold slightly increased, and the net long position of CFTC silver continued to increase [28][30][32]. - **ETF Positions**: The positions of SPDR gold ETF continued to decrease, and the positions of silver ETF also continued to decrease [35][37]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase, COMEX gold inventory continued to decrease, Shanghai silver inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and COMEX silver inventory continued to decrease [39][40][42].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US government continued to shut down, trade concerns were high, and the expectation of interest rate cuts rose again. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The prices of gold and silver expanded their gains again. Shanghai gold closed up 9.94%, COMEX gold closed up 6.69%, Shanghai silver closed up 9.24%, and COMEX silver closed up 7.15%. The US dollar index significantly closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.29%. On Friday night, affected by optimistic trade news, gold and silver prices tumbled [13]. - The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party basically reached a consensus on coalition governance. According to Japanese media, this means that Kōshi Kanasugi is almost certain to win the prime - ministerial nomination election on the 21st [13][14]. - On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [13][14]. - In terms of positions, the net position of Shanghai gold decreased significantly, with more long positions cut and short positions increased. The net position of Shanghai silver decreased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing significantly, but the long positions began to decrease in the second half of the week, which deviated significantly from the price increase. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13]. - This week, events and data are concentrated. China's Q3 GDP, social retail, real estate development investment and other economic data, and the US CPI and manufacturing PMI will be released. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held. The 47th ASEAN Summit will be held in Malaysia, and Trump will attend. The Fed will hold a payment innovation conference. The US 9 - month CPI originally scheduled for October 15th was postponed to October 24th due to the government shutdown, and the US October Markit manufacturing PMI will also be announced on the same day [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination. The appointment of a dovish prime minister in Japan will bring upward momentum in the direction of easing. On the other hand, Sino - US trade concerns have significantly cooled down. These two factors will impact gold and silver prices in opposite directions, but the improvement in risk appetite will also drive gold and silver prices to remain relatively strong. The upward trend remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - The prices of various gold and silver varieties showed different price movements and fluctuations last week. For example, Shanghai gold 2512 had a previous close of 999, the highest was 1001, and the increase was 94; Shanghai silver 2512 had a previous close of 12249, the highest was 12366, and the increase was 24. The US dollar index closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated 0.29% [4][13]. 2. Weekly Review - The US government continued to shut down last week, trade concerns were high, and gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached a consensus on coalition governance. Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold new - round consultations. China's September economic data showed that the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap reached a new low of 1.2 percentage points, the year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [13][14][15]. 3. Fundamental Data - China's September economic data: new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, new RMB deposits were 2.21 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap was 1.2 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI was 1%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [15]. 4. Position Data - Shanghai gold's top 20 long positions decreased by 7.00% to 204,656, short positions increased by 1.25% to 79,553, and the net position decreased by 11.59% to 125,103. Shanghai silver's top 20 long positions increased by 9.91% to 377,410, short positions increased by 14.57% to 285,786, and the net position decreased by 2.46% to 91,624. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [25][27][29]. 5. Summary - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination and the release of the US CPI data. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With recent positive trade progress, gold and silver prices have continuously declined. Before the new tariff deadline, there was a peak in negotiations. After the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, multiple media reported that the US and the EU are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on imposing a 15% tariff, cooling the risk - aversion sentiment. US CPI has rebounded, further cooling the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. Although the impact of the US tariff policy shown by economic data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. In addition, the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the price is high and the upward movement is hesitant. Silver is showing strength driven by industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2508, 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2508, 2512, there were small declines in prices with the largest decline being - 0.18% for Shanghai Silver 2512. In the spot market, London Gold and London Silver also decreased, with London Gold dropping by - 1.66% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of different futures contracts vary. For example, the position of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 110,694 and the trading volume is 46,395 [2] - **Spread and Ratio**: The current values of spreads such as Shanghai Gold 2512 - Shanghai Gold 2506 and ratios like gold/silver have changed compared to previous values [2] Inventory - The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 501 kg, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 402,925 [2] Related Market Indicators - The US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate all have their current values and changes. For example, the US dollar index is currently 97.4884, up 0.29% [2] ETF and CFTC Positions - The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while that in gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Macro News - US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured for interest rate cuts. An investment company sued Federal Reserve officials for closed - door policy meetings. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and listed "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty. The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary values of the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold futures (Au) dropped 0.29% to 785.02 yuan/gram, while Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 0.12% to 8,226.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.21% to $3,326.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver dropped 1.15% to $33.19 per ounce [2]. - The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.19%, and the US dollar index was at 99.15 [2]. - The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of various gold and silver contracts (such as Au(T + D), Ag(T + D), COMEX gold, COMEX silver, etc.) showed different changes compared to the previous trading day [2][4][6]. Group 2: Economic Data and Policy - US economic data released last night further weakened. The number of JOLTS job openings in March was 7.192 million, significantly lower than the expected 7.48 million. The US consumer confidence index in April was 86, lower than the expected 87.5 and the previous value of 93.9, reaching the lowest level since May 2020 [2]. - US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the current monetary policy this morning but did not deny the Fed's independence. He also took a tough stance on tariffs, indicating that the tariff war has not really started [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Given the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the expected marginal easing of the Fed's monetary policy, and the continuous overseas economic risks, a medium - term long - position strategy for gold and silver prices is recommended [3]. - Gold prices have significantly declined after a sharp rise, and the current price trend is generally weak. Attention should be paid to the support level of 747 yuan/gram for the main contract, with a reference operating range of 747 - 808 yuan/gram for the Shanghai gold main contract [3]. - Silver requires a clear easing monetary policy statement from the Fed to have a significant upward drive. Currently, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended, with a reference operating range of 7,804 - 8,545 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai silver main contract [3]. Group 4: Market Risks - The US non - farm payroll data for April to be released on Friday may cause significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices. Investors should adjust their positions appropriately [3]. - The domestic precious metals futures will enter the Labor Day holiday closure period starting tonight, while the overseas gold and silver futures will continue to trade [3].