Gold and silver may have begun the new year on a positive note, but now advisors and investors are questioning which direction the metals will take next. Last Friday, prices for gold and silver alike... ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. Although there are short - term negative factors for silver, the large holdings of silver ETFs will keep the available inventory of London silver at a relatively low level. The expected increase in silver imports in India in the first quarter will support the spot demand for silver, so the upward driving force for the silver price still exists. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and conduct bargain - hunting long positions after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 970 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On January 12, 2026, Shanghai gold rose 0.80% to 1008.54 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 6.19% to 19438.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4540.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 81.08 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.18%, and the US dollar index was 99.23 [2] - From January 2 to December 31, 2025, the price of the main COMEX silver contract increased by 142.17%. The total inventory of COMEX silver increased from 9918.8 tons on January 2, 2025, to a high of 16500 tons in early October. As of January 9, 2026, the silver one - month implied lease rate dropped from 10.24% at the beginning of the year to 3.76%, and the total inventory of COMEX silver decreased from 13989.5 tons at the beginning of the year to 13677.5 tons [2] 3.2 Strategy View - Mid - term factors support the upward trend of silver prices. As of January 9, 2026, the large holdings of silver ETFs (29295 tons) will keep the available inventory of London silver at a relatively low level. The new silver mortgage regulations in India will take effect in April, and it is expected that silver imports in the first quarter will increase significantly, which will support the spot demand for silver. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and conduct bargain - hunting long positions after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 970 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.3 Key Data Summary - **Gold**: For COMEX gold on January 9, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 4518.40 dollars/ounce, up 0.68%; the trading volume was 198000 lots, up 3.20%; the position was 488100 lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1129 tons, down 0.21%. For LBMA gold, the closing price was 4493.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46%. For SHFE gold, the closing price of the active contract was 1006.48 yuan/gram, up 0.86%; the trading volume was 266400 lots, down 15.93%; the position was 318600 lots, up 1.58%; the inventory was 97.65 tons, unchanged. The settled funds increased by 2.45% to 51.307 billion yuan [5] - **Silver**: For COMEX silver on January 9, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 79.79 dollars/ounce, up 4.04%; the position was 153200 lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13677 tons, down 0.62%. For LBMA silver, the closing price was 78.14 dollars/ounce, up 3.90%. For SHFE silver, the closing price of the active contract was 18731.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.52%; the trading volume was 228500 lots, down 26.62%; the position was 677900 lots, up 0.76%; the inventory was 620.26 tons, down 2.73%. The settled funds increased by 2.30% to 34.284 billion yuan [5] 3.4 Price and Inventory Charts - Multiple charts show the relationship between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volume, and position over time, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences, providing a comprehensive analysis of the market trends of gold and silver [7][10][20][26][39][46] 3.5 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - On January 9, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was - 100.98 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 35.30 dollars/ounce. The SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 4.54 dollars/ounce [46]

Group 1 - On November 29, gold and silver futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange experienced significant declines, with gold prices dropping over 4.5% and silver prices nearing a 9% drop [1] - The February 2026 gold futures price fell to $4,346.6 per ounce, while the March 2026 silver futures price dropped to $71.54 per ounce, following previous record highs of $4,584.00 for gold and $82.67 for silver [1] - Market analysts suggest that the price drop is a short-term correction, with the future trading trends over the next two days being crucial for determining the price direction of gold and silver in the coming weeks [1] Group 2 - UBS Group reported that gold demand is expected to grow steadily by 2026, influenced by ongoing global economic concerns and uncertainties in U.S. domestic policy [2] - The report forecasts that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by September 2026, with potential spikes to $5,400 per ounce in the event of political or economic turmoil surrounding the U.S. midterm elections [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the perspective of overseas medium - term monetary policy trends, the Fed's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion will lead to a continuously strong performance of precious metals prices. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 983 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 15519 - 18000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 0.23% to 1010.30 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.54% to 17211.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4505.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 71.88 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.93 [2] - The recently announced US employment data for the week exceeded expectations, suppressing the short - term prices of gold and silver. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 20 was 214,000, lower than the expected and previous value of 224,000. After the data was announced, the prices of gold and silver rose briefly and then fell [2] 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%, but it was significantly affected by medical insurance prices. The US GDP price index in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. The year - on - year value of the US PCE price index in the third quarter was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, indicating that the economic data did not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of price levels [3] 3.3 Fed Chairmanship and Interest Rate Expectations - Trump clearly stated that "those who oppose him will never get the position of Fed Chair", which strengthened the market's expectation of a dovish new Fed Chair and the pricing of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts. The CME interest rate monitor shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July 2026 FOMC meetings [3] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's CFTC - reported weekly open interest increased 8.91% to 471,100 lots, and inventory remained unchanged at 1,125 tons. LBMA gold's closing price rose 0.63% to 4449.40 US dollars/ounce. SHFE gold's closing price rose 0.04% to 1014.68 yuan/gram, trading volume increased 29.19% to 491,200 lots, and open interest decreased 3.00% to 359,800 lots. The precipitation of funds decreased 2.96% to 58.418 billion yuan. AuT + D's trading volume decreased 10.36% to 55.63 tons, and open interest increased 2.36% to 229.72 tons [5] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's CFTC - reported weekly open interest decreased 1.19% to 152,900 lots, and inventory increased 0.10% to 14,039 tons. LBMA silver's closing price rose 0.75% to 69.74 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver's closing price rose 7.10% to 17,609.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume increased 38.32% to 3,301,300 lots, and open interest increased 3.06% to 819,200 lots. The precipitation of funds increased 10.38% to 38.949 billion yuan. AgT + D's trading volume increased 23.70% to 1010.78 tons, and open interest decreased 3.02% to 3184.882 tons [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a notable drop below $4200 before recovering to close at $4236.6 per ounce, influenced by market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.45% to $4236.6 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) decreased by 0.71% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (159562) fell by 3.28% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data suggests that interest rate cuts are likely to continue, with several Federal Reserve officials supporting a rate cut in December [1] - Trump's comments on selecting a new Federal Reserve chair based on their stance on significant rate cuts indicate a potential shift in monetary policy [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Long-term supply and demand imbalances are causing shortages in silver, which remains a core driver for gold and silver prices [1] - The long-term trend for gold and silver prices is expected to remain robust despite short-term adjustments, with limited downside potential [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Last week, with concentrated events including a hawkish stance from the Fed Chair and an optimistic outcome of China - US consultations, precious metal prices stopped falling and rebounded. However, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened due to optimistic trade expectations and cooling rate - cut expectations, and they are expected to fluctuate mainly this week [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Price Changes**: All precious metal varieties showed price fluctuations. For example,沪金2512 fell 2.53%, COMEX gold fell 2.95%,沪银2512 fell 0.06%, and COMEX silver fell 0.69%. The US dollar index rose 0.8%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB depreciated 0.05% [4][15]. - **Policy Events**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, and the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time. China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and the US reached trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries [15][16][17]. - **Investment and Trade Agreements**: Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US, with energy as the key area. South Korea will invest $350 billion in the US, and the US will reduce the tariff on South Korean cars from 25% to 15% [18]. 3.2 Weekly Review This week, China will release important economic data for October, the US will release the ADP employment report, and Fed officials will speak frequently. Attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and cooling rate - cut expectations, the upward momentum of gold and silver is weakened, and they will mainly fluctuate [15]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price and Ratio Charts**: There are charts showing the ratio of domestic and foreign precious metal spot prices, the relationship between London gold spot prices and the US dollar index, and the relationship between London silver spot prices and the US dollar index [19][21][22]. - **Yield Data**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fluctuated and fell back to 4.38% [25]. 3.4 Position Data - **Domestic Positions**: The net position of Shanghai gold began to rise, with both long and short positions increasing. The net position of Shanghai silver continued to decrease, with both long and short positions decreasing. As of September 23rd, the net long position of CFTC gold slightly increased, and the net long position of CFTC silver continued to increase [28][30][32]. - **ETF Positions**: The positions of SPDR gold ETF continued to decrease, and the positions of silver ETF also continued to decrease [35][37]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase, COMEX gold inventory continued to decrease, Shanghai silver inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and COMEX silver inventory continued to decrease [39][40][42].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US government continued to shut down, trade concerns were high, and the expectation of interest rate cuts rose again. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The prices of gold and silver expanded their gains again. Shanghai gold closed up 9.94%, COMEX gold closed up 6.69%, Shanghai silver closed up 9.24%, and COMEX silver closed up 7.15%. The US dollar index significantly closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.29%. On Friday night, affected by optimistic trade news, gold and silver prices tumbled [13]. - The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party basically reached a consensus on coalition governance. According to Japanese media, this means that Kōshi Kanasugi is almost certain to win the prime - ministerial nomination election on the 21st [13][14]. - On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [13][14]. - In terms of positions, the net position of Shanghai gold decreased significantly, with more long positions cut and short positions increased. The net position of Shanghai silver decreased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing significantly, but the long positions began to decrease in the second half of the week, which deviated significantly from the price increase. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13]. - This week, events and data are concentrated. China's Q3 GDP, social retail, real estate development investment and other economic data, and the US CPI and manufacturing PMI will be released. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held. The 47th ASEAN Summit will be held in Malaysia, and Trump will attend. The Fed will hold a payment innovation conference. The US 9 - month CPI originally scheduled for October 15th was postponed to October 24th due to the government shutdown, and the US October Markit manufacturing PMI will also be announced on the same day [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination. The appointment of a dovish prime minister in Japan will bring upward momentum in the direction of easing. On the other hand, Sino - US trade concerns have significantly cooled down. These two factors will impact gold and silver prices in opposite directions, but the improvement in risk appetite will also drive gold and silver prices to remain relatively strong. The upward trend remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - The prices of various gold and silver varieties showed different price movements and fluctuations last week. For example, Shanghai gold 2512 had a previous close of 999, the highest was 1001, and the increase was 94; Shanghai silver 2512 had a previous close of 12249, the highest was 12366, and the increase was 24. The US dollar index closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated 0.29% [4][13]. 2. Weekly Review - The US government continued to shut down last week, trade concerns were high, and gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached a consensus on coalition governance. Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold new - round consultations. China's September economic data showed that the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap reached a new low of 1.2 percentage points, the year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [13][14][15]. 3. Fundamental Data - China's September economic data: new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, new RMB deposits were 2.21 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap was 1.2 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI was 1%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [15]. 4. Position Data - Shanghai gold's top 20 long positions decreased by 7.00% to 204,656, short positions increased by 1.25% to 79,553, and the net position decreased by 11.59% to 125,103. Shanghai silver's top 20 long positions increased by 9.91% to 377,410, short positions increased by 14.57% to 285,786, and the net position decreased by 2.46% to 91,624. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [25][27][29]. 5. Summary - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination and the release of the US CPI data. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With recent positive trade progress, gold and silver prices have continuously declined. Before the new tariff deadline, there was a peak in negotiations. After the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, multiple media reported that the US and the EU are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on imposing a 15% tariff, cooling the risk - aversion sentiment. US CPI has rebounded, further cooling the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. Although the impact of the US tariff policy shown by economic data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. In addition, the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the price is high and the upward movement is hesitant. Silver is showing strength driven by industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2508, 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2508, 2512, there were small declines in prices with the largest decline being - 0.18% for Shanghai Silver 2512. In the spot market, London Gold and London Silver also decreased, with London Gold dropping by - 1.66% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of different futures contracts vary. For example, the position of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 110,694 and the trading volume is 46,395 [2] - **Spread and Ratio**: The current values of spreads such as Shanghai Gold 2512 - Shanghai Gold 2506 and ratios like gold/silver have changed compared to previous values [2] Inventory - The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 501 kg, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 402,925 [2] Related Market Indicators - The US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate all have their current values and changes. For example, the US dollar index is currently 97.4884, up 0.29% [2] ETF and CFTC Positions - The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while that in gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Macro News - US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured for interest rate cuts. An investment company sued Federal Reserve officials for closed - door policy meetings. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and listed "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty. The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary values of the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold futures (Au) dropped 0.29% to 785.02 yuan/gram, while Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 0.12% to 8,226.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.21% to $3,326.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver dropped 1.15% to $33.19 per ounce [2]. - The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.19%, and the US dollar index was at 99.15 [2]. - The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of various gold and silver contracts (such as Au(T + D), Ag(T + D), COMEX gold, COMEX silver, etc.) showed different changes compared to the previous trading day [2][4][6]. Group 2: Economic Data and Policy - US economic data released last night further weakened. The number of JOLTS job openings in March was 7.192 million, significantly lower than the expected 7.48 million. The US consumer confidence index in April was 86, lower than the expected 87.5 and the previous value of 93.9, reaching the lowest level since May 2020 [2]. - US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the current monetary policy this morning but did not deny the Fed's independence. He also took a tough stance on tariffs, indicating that the tariff war has not really started [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Given the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the expected marginal easing of the Fed's monetary policy, and the continuous overseas economic risks, a medium - term long - position strategy for gold and silver prices is recommended [3]. - Gold prices have significantly declined after a sharp rise, and the current price trend is generally weak. Attention should be paid to the support level of 747 yuan/gram for the main contract, with a reference operating range of 747 - 808 yuan/gram for the Shanghai gold main contract [3]. - Silver requires a clear easing monetary policy statement from the Fed to have a significant upward drive. Currently, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended, with a reference operating range of 7,804 - 8,545 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai silver main contract [3]. Group 4: Market Risks - The US non - farm payroll data for April to be released on Friday may cause significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices. Investors should adjust their positions appropriately [3]. - The domestic precious metals futures will enter the Labor Day holiday closure period starting tonight, while the overseas gold and silver futures will continue to trade [3].