Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to improve gradually each quarter, leveraging its product flavor development advantages and expanding its product range [1][27]. - The company has shown strong growth potential with a 6-year CAGR of 16.32% in revenue and 21.00% in net profit from 2018 to 2024 [1][29]. - The company is undergoing channel reforms, which may cause short-term performance dips but are expected to lead to more efficient distribution and direct sales channels in the long run [1][30]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of leisure foods, with main product categories including green peas, sunflower seeds, broad beans, and mixed nuts [5][25]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to decline by 2.92% in 2025, followed by growth rates of 13.29% and 11.14% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [9]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 254.07 million, with a significant drop of 32.46% compared to the previous year, but is expected to recover in subsequent years [9][8]. Product Dynamics - The mixed nuts and bean products category is expected to maintain a CAGR of 32.37% from 2019 to 2024, with a growth rate of 39.8% in 2024 [2][3]. - The company has a strong focus on flavor development, which is a key factor for consumer purchasing decisions [2][3]. Channel Dynamics - The company is enhancing its e-commerce strategy, with a 12.42% increase in e-commerce revenue in the first half of 2025, despite overall revenue decline [2][3]. - The snack wholesale channel is expected to account for over 20% of revenue in 2024, with continued double-digit growth [3]. Regional Dynamics - The company anticipates significant growth in overseas markets, particularly in Vietnam, which serves as a model for expansion into other Southeast Asian markets [1][35]. - Revenue from the East China and Southwest regions has shown remarkable growth, with increases of 45.31% and 49.18% in 2024, respectively [35]. Innovation and Market Trends - The leisure snack market is projected to reach 972 billion by 2025, driven by rising disposable income and diverse consumption scenarios [67]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for healthy and innovative snack options, aligning with consumer trends [68].

甘源食品 002991.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年07月25日） | 57.91 元 | | 目标价格 | 63.27 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 93.42/45.31 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 9,322/4,969 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 5,398 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 07 月 28 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.75 | -4.07 | -20.17 | 18.59 | | 相对表现% | -0.94 | -8.29 | -29.15 | -2.82 | | 沪深 300% | 1.69 | 4.22 | 8.98 | 21.41 | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 2025 年公司处于主动调整期，收入与利润短期承压，我们基于最新中报业绩预告， 下调了核心品类销售增速、渠道放量节 ...