Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities' report indicates that Ganyuan Foods is experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with expectations for recovery in the second half due to new product launches and channel expansion [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Ganyuan Foods reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.945 billion and 0.075 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 9.34% and 55.20% [1] - In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 0.441 billion and 0.022 billion, showing year-on-year decreases of 3.37% and 70.96% [1] - The revenue decline in Q2 2025 narrowed compared to previous quarters, indicating an improvement in operational conditions [1] Product and Category Performance - Revenue changes for major product categories in H1 2025 were as follows: mixed nuts and bean products -24%, green peas -11%, broad beans -16%, sunflower seeds -5%, and others -20% [1] - Year-on-year price changes for these categories showed increases: +6% for mixed nuts, +11% for green peas, +22% for broad beans, -5% for sunflower seeds, and +10% for others [1] - The decline in major categories is primarily attributed to a decrease in sales volume [1] Product Development and Market Strategy - In 2025, the company launched four new flavored nut series, with the new product "Fresh Freeze-Dried Premium Fruit" already available at Sam's Club [1] - The company is continuously introducing new products to meet market demand and is deepening its multi-channel development strategy [1] - The Sam's Club and bulk purchase channels are expected to contribute to incremental growth, while overseas business is anticipated to continue its breakthrough [1] Future Outlook - With the introduction of new products and the expansion of overseas channels, Ganyuan Foods is expected to achieve a recovery in performance in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company's valuation is currently at low percentiles compared to the past 3, 5, and 10 years, leading to a maintained "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.34% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a net profit decline of 55.20% [1]. - The revenue drop has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, indicating an improvement in operational conditions [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 53.13 million yuan, accounting for 71.22% of its net profit in H1 2025 [1]. - The company has launched four new flavors of nut products, which are expected to meet market demand [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 9.45 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.75 billion yuan [1]. - The revenue from major product categories showed a decline, primarily due to a decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company reported a gross margin of 32.79% and a net margin of 4.90% in Q2 2025, both showing a year-on-year decline [3]. Segment Performance - The company’s revenue from different regions in H1 2025 was as follows: East China 2.85 billion yuan, Southwest 1.22 billion yuan, and overseas 0.22 billion yuan, with overseas revenue growing significantly by 163% [2]. - E-commerce business showed a revenue increase of 12% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 6 percentage points [2]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 22.65 billion yuan, 25.55 billion yuan, and 28.17 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 0%, 13%, and 10% respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 2.54 billion yuan, 3.46 billion yuan, and 3.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 33% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [4]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the food and beverage sector, specifically in the snack food category [6]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 5.36 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21X for 2025 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing an active adjustment period in 2025, with short-term pressure on revenue and profit. The latest interim performance forecast has led to a downward adjustment in key assumptions regarding sales growth, channel expansion pace, and expense ratio improvement. However, the long-term product and channel expansion logic remains unchanged. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.33, 4.08, and 4.68 yuan respectively, down from previous forecasts of 5.37 and 6.52 yuan for 2025 and 2026. Given the company's multi-brand and multi-channel layout, the recovery in profitability is highly certain. A price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2025 is suggested, corresponding to a target price of 63.27 yuan, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected financial performance for 2023A to 2027E is as follows: - Revenue (million yuan): 1,848 (2023A), 2,257 (2024A), 2,341 (2025E), 2,668 (2026E), 2,985 (2027E) with year-on-year growth rates of 27.4%, 22.2%, 3.7%, 13.9%, and 11.9% respectively [7][12] - Operating profit (million yuan): 406 (2023A), 441 (2024A), 368 (2025E), 450 (2026E), 516 (2027E) with year-on-year growth rates of 91.7%, 8.7%, -16.6%, 22.4%, and 14.6% respectively [7][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): 329 (2023A), 376 (2024A), 310 (2025E), 381 (2026E), 436 (2027E) with year-on-year growth rates of 107.8%, 14.3%, -17.5%, 22.6%, and 14.7% respectively [7][12] - Earnings per share (yuan): 3.53 (2023A), 4.04 (2024A), 3.33 (2025E), 4.08 (2026E), 4.68 (2027E) [7][12] Market Performance Summary - The company's absolute performance over different time frames is as follows: - 1 week: +0.75% - 1 month: -4.07% - 3 months: -20.17% - 12 months: +18.59% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to be within -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a valuation shift during the earnings window, with a focus on opportunities in undervalued stocks and potential rebounds following recent corrections [4][11]. - The SW food and beverage index increased by 0.8%, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries, with notable gains in the liquor, health products, and beer sectors, while soft drinks and dairy products saw declines [4][11]. - The report highlights the rebound in the liquor sector, particularly the SW liquor index, which rose by 1.41%, suggesting a recovery from previous overly pessimistic expectations [16][20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the upcoming demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [20]. - Key brands such as Guizhou Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for investment due to their stable pricing and market performance [20][23]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is facing a correction due to downward adjustments in earnings expectations for leading companies, particularly in soft drinks and snacks [21]. - Innovative product launches in the snack segment are highlighted, with companies like Youyou Foods and Weidong introducing new items to capture market share [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in ready-to-drink beverages and the increasing competition in the tea drink market, with a positive outlook for brands like Mixue and Gu Ming [21][22]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy rating with expected EPS growth [23] - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold rating with stable performance [23] - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy rating with significant revenue growth forecast [22][23] - Youyou Foods: Buy rating with strong market recovery potential [23] - Nongfu Spring: Buy rating with expected market share recovery [23]