Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities' report indicates that Ganyuan Foods is experiencing a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with expectations for recovery in the second half due to new product launches and channel expansion [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Ganyuan Foods reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.945 billion and 0.075 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 9.34% and 55.20% [1] - In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 0.441 billion and 0.022 billion, showing year-on-year decreases of 3.37% and 70.96% [1] - The revenue decline in Q2 2025 narrowed compared to previous quarters, indicating an improvement in operational conditions [1] Product and Category Performance - Revenue changes for major product categories in H1 2025 were as follows: mixed nuts and bean products -24%, green peas -11%, broad beans -16%, sunflower seeds -5%, and others -20% [1] - Year-on-year price changes for these categories showed increases: +6% for mixed nuts, +11% for green peas, +22% for broad beans, -5% for sunflower seeds, and +10% for others [1] - The decline in major categories is primarily attributed to a decrease in sales volume [1] Product Development and Market Strategy - In 2025, the company launched four new flavored nut series, with the new product "Fresh Freeze-Dried Premium Fruit" already available at Sam's Club [1] - The company is continuously introducing new products to meet market demand and is deepening its multi-channel development strategy [1] - The Sam's Club and bulk purchase channels are expected to contribute to incremental growth, while overseas business is anticipated to continue its breakthrough [1] Future Outlook - With the introduction of new products and the expansion of overseas channels, Ganyuan Foods is expected to achieve a recovery in performance in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company's valuation is currently at low percentiles compared to the past 3, 5, and 10 years, leading to a maintained "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.34% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a net profit decline of 55.20% [1]. - The revenue drop has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, indicating an improvement in operational conditions [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 53.13 million yuan, accounting for 71.22% of its net profit in H1 2025 [1]. - The company has launched four new flavors of nut products, which are expected to meet market demand [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 9.45 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.75 billion yuan [1]. - The revenue from major product categories showed a decline, primarily due to a decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company reported a gross margin of 32.79% and a net margin of 4.90% in Q2 2025, both showing a year-on-year decline [3]. Segment Performance - The company’s revenue from different regions in H1 2025 was as follows: East China 2.85 billion yuan, Southwest 1.22 billion yuan, and overseas 0.22 billion yuan, with overseas revenue growing significantly by 163% [2]. - E-commerce business showed a revenue increase of 12% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 6 percentage points [2]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 22.65 billion yuan, 25.55 billion yuan, and 28.17 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 0%, 13%, and 10% respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 2.54 billion yuan, 3.46 billion yuan, and 3.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 33% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [4]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the food and beverage sector, specifically in the snack food category [6]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 5.36 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21X for 2025 [5][6].

甘源食品 002991.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年07月25日） | 57.91 元 | | 目标价格 | 63.27 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 93.42/45.31 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 9,322/4,969 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 5,398 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 07 月 28 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.75 | -4.07 | -20.17 | 18.59 | | 相对表现% | -0.94 | -8.29 | -29.15 | -2.82 | | 沪深 300% | 1.69 | 4.22 | 8.98 | 21.41 | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 2025 年公司处于主动调整期，收入与利润短期承压，我们基于最新中报业绩预告， 下调了核心品类销售增速、渠道放量节 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to be within -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a valuation shift during the earnings window, with a focus on opportunities in undervalued stocks and potential rebounds following recent corrections [4][11]. - The SW food and beverage index increased by 0.8%, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries, with notable gains in the liquor, health products, and beer sectors, while soft drinks and dairy products saw declines [4][11]. - The report highlights the rebound in the liquor sector, particularly the SW liquor index, which rose by 1.41%, suggesting a recovery from previous overly pessimistic expectations [16][20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the upcoming demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [20]. - Key brands such as Guizhou Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for investment due to their stable pricing and market performance [20][23]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is facing a correction due to downward adjustments in earnings expectations for leading companies, particularly in soft drinks and snacks [21]. - Innovative product launches in the snack segment are highlighted, with companies like Youyou Foods and Weidong introducing new items to capture market share [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in ready-to-drink beverages and the increasing competition in the tea drink market, with a positive outlook for brands like Mixue and Gu Ming [21][22]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy rating with expected EPS growth [23] - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold rating with stable performance [23] - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy rating with significant revenue growth forecast [22][23] - Youyou Foods: Buy rating with strong market recovery potential [23] - Nongfu Spring: Buy rating with expected market share recovery [23]