证券研究报告 天孚通信 (300394 CH) Q2 业绩超预期，有源业务高速增长 2025 年 8 月 26 日│中国内地 通信设备制造 | | | 王兴 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070003 SFC No. BUC499 wangxing@htsc.com +(86) 21 3847 6737 高名垚 研究员 SAC No. S0570523080006 SFC No. BUP971 王珂 研究员 wangke020520@htsc.com SAC No. S0570524080005 SFC No. BWA966 +(86) 755 8249 2388 陈越兮* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070005 chenyuexi@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 目标价 (人民币) | 164.16 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 8 月 25 日) | 129.35 | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 100,559 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 2,508 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xi Tai Investment has conducted research on Tianfu Communication, focusing on its product development and production capacity adjustments [1] - Tianfu Communication's 1.6T optical engine product is experiencing steady delivery and increasing output, with the company planning to dynamically adjust production capacity based on customer demand [1] - The gross margin of the 6T optical engine is influenced by various factors, particularly during the initial mass production phase, where the company aims to control production costs [1] Group 2 - The company has made progress on CPO-related supporting products, but these are not expected to significantly contribute to revenue in the short term [1] - The production base in Thailand is being developed in two phases, with the first phase expected to be operational by mid-2024 and the second phase nearing completion of equipment debugging and sample validation [1] - Active products are projected to account for over 50% of the company's revenue in 2024, and the company is committed to developing more customers [1]

Suspension and Resumption of Trading - *ST Yazhen has repeatedly triggered abnormal stock trading fluctuations and will be suspended for verification starting tomorrow [1] Investment Cooperation and Operating Conditions - Hesheng New Materials plans to invest 250 million yuan to increase its stake in Yizhi Electronics, expecting to hold 10% of the company post-investment. Yizhi Electronics specializes in the R&D, design, and sales of high-end processors for servers and workstations, providing chip product solutions [2] - Xingye Securities has not received any information regarding a merger with Huafu Securities [2] - Keda Li intends to jointly invest with Weichuang Electric to establish Suzhou Yizhi Intelligent Drive Technology Co., focusing on the market potential of embodied intelligent robots [2] - Tianfu Communication's 1.6T optical engine product is in a stable delivery phase, with smooth progress on related CPO products [2] - Shuangliang Energy has signed a sales contract for a 450 million yuan green hydrogen production system [2] - Junshi Biosciences' subsidiary JT118 injection clinical trial application has been accepted, aimed at preventing monkeypox virus infection [3] - Xingsen Technology plans to participate in the purchase of a 24% stake in its subsidiary Xinke Semiconductor [4] - Tianci Materials intends to invest approximately 280 million USD to build an integrated production base for electrolytes and raw materials in Morocco [5] - Shaanxi Construction has won a bid for a melamine project in Indonesia worth 2.137 billion yuan, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons [6] - Changyuan Donggu has received a notification from a well-known domestic automaker, confirming it as a designated supplier for a series of engine cylinder block semi-finished products, with total sales expected to be between 450 million and 500 million yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company is in a continuous ramp-up phase for its 1.6T optical engine products, with stable deliveries currently [1] Group 1: Product Development - The CPO-related supporting products are progressing smoothly, but they are not expected to make a significant contribution to revenue in the short term [1] - The first phase of the production base in Thailand has been put into operation, and the second phase is nearing completion with equipment debugging and sample production [1] Group 2: Revenue Outlook - Active products are expected to account for over 50% of the company's revenue in 2024, with plans to develop more active product customers in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, indicating strong operational performance and market demand [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 3.252 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 68% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.344 billion yuan, up 84% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.314 billion yuan, reflecting an 83% increase year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Analysis - In 2024, the company's passive optical components business generated revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year, while the active optical components business saw revenue of 1.655 billion yuan, up 122% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic revenue reached 778 million yuan, growing by 125% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 2.473 billion yuan, marking a 55% increase year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for passive components was 68.4%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, while active components had a gross margin of 46.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Operational Insights - In the second half of 2024, the company reported passive revenue of 879 million yuan, a 26% increase from the first half, attributed to workforce expansion and increased customer demand [2]. - Active revenue was 835 million yuan, reflecting a 2% increase from the first half, indicating stable demand for 800G optical engine products [2]. - The company’s inventory increased by 13.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, suggesting a positive demand outlook [3]. Strategic Developments - The establishment of overseas production capabilities, particularly in Thailand, is expected to enhance delivery capacity and mitigate tariff impacts [3]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the emerging markets of CPO (Chip-on-Board) and Optical I/O, driven by AI advancements and increasing bandwidth requirements [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in net profit, projecting 2.081 billion yuan in 2025, 2.741 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.386 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 32%, and 24% [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its strong growth trajectory and market positioning [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The delivery of passive product lines is accelerating in H2 2024, while active products are awaiting the ramp-up of new 1.6T products. The company reported a revenue of 3.252 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.344 billion yuan, up 84% year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is experiencing improved cost management in Q4 2024, with inventory levels increasing by 13.2% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive demand outlook. The establishment of overseas production capacity is expected to enhance delivery capabilities and mitigate tariff impacts [11][12]. - The CPO/OIO market presents significant growth opportunities, driven by AI advancements and the increasing demand for high-performance optical modules [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's passive components business generated revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year, while the active components business achieved 1.655 billion yuan, a 122% increase year-on-year. Domestic revenue reached 778 million yuan, up 125%, and overseas revenue was 2.473 billion yuan, up 55% [11][12]. - The gross margin for passive components was 68.4%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, while active components had a gross margin of 46.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. Cost Management and Production Capacity - In Q4 2024, the company's expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 0.3%, 3.7%, 6.9%, and -6.3%, respectively, showing improvements compared to previous quarters [11][12]. - The company is increasing its inventory levels, reflecting a positive demand trend, and its fixed assets have increased by 7.9% quarter-on-quarter, indicating the gradual establishment of overseas production capacity [11][12]. Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the CPO and Optical I/O markets, with expectations of continued growth driven by AI and high-performance optical module demand [11][12]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.081 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.386 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 32%, and 24%, respectively [11][12].