Group 1 - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, as indicated by the recent ADP data, suggesting a potential deterioration in economic conditions [1] - There was a brief increase in yields, correlated with a rise in S&P futures, but this momentum was not sustained, leading to a separation in trends [2] - Overall, there has been a three basis points deterioration across all maturities, reflecting the impact of weak jobs data on the bond market [3] Group 2 - Japanese 10-year yields have reached a fresh high, indicating a significant movement in the bond market over the past 18 years [3]

Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a steadfast uptrend, characterized by a nice upward slope in the 200-week moving average and a strong upward sloping trend line [2] - The 14-week RSI is above 80, indicating an overbought market, with psychological resistance around $4,000 per ounce [3] - A potential pullback is anticipated, with target levels around $3,720 to $3,500 [4][5] 10-Year Yield Trends - The 10-year yield is showing a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a lack of trend with converging trend lines [6] - A long bias is preferred as long as the yield resistance holds around 4.5% [7] - The market may remain in a longer-term consolidation phase until the end of the year [8] US Dollar Outlook - The US dollar has been in a long-term secular uptrend since the 2008 lows, with a notable trend line connecting historical bottom points [9] - The dollar market may see a small upward move despite general bearish consensus, with potential retracement of one-third to one-half of previous moves [11] - The dollar index could target levels around 102 to 103, with the euro expected to reach lower lows than 113.90 from previous months [12]

Bond Market Overview - Bond yields are rising despite weaker-than-expected economic data, particularly in the service sector [1][2] - Two-year and 10-year yields are up several basis points during the session, but down about eight basis points for the week [3] Economic Data Impact - The disappointing service sector data raised questions about both sides of the Federal Reserve's mandate, particularly regarding the labor market [2] - Prices paid in the service sector showed a slight increase, which is not favorable for inflation control [1] Technical Analysis - The NASDAQ index is showing a higher high and a lower low compared to the previous day, indicating potential volatility [4] - A close below the previous day's low could signal a key reversal from all-time highs, which would be technically significant and potentially bearish [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **A-share market** in China, highlighting recent trends in investor sentiment and market performance amid potential government interventions and economic indicators. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Sentiment Decline**: A-share investor sentiment has decreased significantly, with the weighted MSASI dropping by **32 percentage points** to **126%** and the simple MSASI to **121%** compared to the previous cutoff date of August 28 [2][6][11]. 2. **Market Correction**: Reports of government measures to cool market sentiment have led to a notable market correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index down **1.3%**, CSI 300 Index down **2.1%**, and ChiNext index down **4.2%** on September 4 [4][11]. 3. **Turnover Trends**: Daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and Northbound fell by **26%** (to **RMB 658 billion**), **25%** (to **RMB 2,366 billion**), and **17%** (to **RMB 166 billion**), respectively, indicating reduced trading activity [2][11]. 4. **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading recorded net inflows of **US$ 2.3 billion** from August 28 to September 3, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching **US$ 128.1 billion** and **US$ 3.4 billion**, respectively [3][11]. 5. **Earnings Misses**: The A-share market has seen a moderate miss in earnings, with a slight deterioration compared to Q1 results, indicating potential challenges in corporate fundamentals [11][12]. Additional Important Insights 1. **PMI Indicators**: August PMIs showed a continued growth slowdown, with construction PMI dropping to a record low of **49.1** and manufacturing PMI for consumer goods at **49.2**, reflecting weakening economic conditions [11]. 2. **Government Policy Impact**: The upcoming **15th Five-Year Plan** to be announced in mid-October is expected to be a critical checkpoint for assessing the need for structural reforms to support economic stability [11]. 3. **Monitoring Signposts**: Investors are advised to monitor key indicators such as onshore bond yields, policy catalysts focusing on consumption and social benefits, earnings trajectories, and potential government interventions to stabilize the market [11]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently facing challenges due to declining investor sentiment, market corrections, and economic indicators suggesting a slowdown. The effectiveness of government interventions and upcoming policy announcements will be crucial in determining the market's trajectory in the near future.

Group 1 - The Agricultural Development Bank issued a 392-day bond with a scale of 15 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.3883%, exceeding the expected rate of 1.3700%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.30 times and a marginal ratio of 1.67 times [1] - The Agricultural Development Bank issued a 3-year bond with a scale of 2 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.6893%, higher than the expected rate of 1.6500%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.24 times and a marginal ratio of 1.17 times [1] - The Agricultural Development Bank issued a 10-year bond with a scale of 16 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.8411%, above the expected rate of 1.8200%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.76 times and a marginal ratio of 6.67 times [1]

Group 1 - Agricultural Development Bank issued a 392-day bond with a scale of 15 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.3695%, with a bid multiple of 2.54 times and a marginal multiple of 1.27 times [1] - Agricultural Development Bank issued a 3-year bond with a scale of 2 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.6649%, with a bid multiple of 3.26 times and a marginal multiple of 2.67 times [1] - Agricultural Development Bank issued a 10-year bond with a scale of 16 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.7888%, with a bid multiple of 3.76 times and a marginal multiple of 1.13 times [1]

Group 1 - Agricultural Development Bank issued a 392-day bond with a scale of 15 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.3684%, with a bid multiple of 2.72 times and a marginal multiple of 10.97 times [1] - Agricultural Development Bank issued a 3-year bond with a scale of 2 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.6534%, with a bid multiple of 5.41 times and a marginal multiple of 5.00 times [1] - Agricultural Development Bank issued a 10-year bond with a scale of 16 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.7526%, with a bid multiple of 3.18 times and a marginal multiple of 5.18 times [1]

Group 1 - The China Development Bank (CDB) issued a 1-year bond with a scale of 6 billion yuan, an issuance rate of 1.3838%, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.92 times [1] - The CDB issued a 5-year bond with a scale of 11 billion yuan, an issuance rate of 1.5564%, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.71 times [1] - The CDB issued a 10-year bond with a scale of 21 billion yuan, an issuance rate of 1.6790%, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.74 times [1] Group 2 - The expected issuance rate for the 1-year bond was 1.4000%, while the actual rate was lower [1] - The expected issuance rate for the 5-year bond was 1.5300%, with the actual rate being slightly higher [1] - The expected issuance rate for the 10-year bond was 1.6700%, with the actual rate being marginally higher [1] Group 3 - The marginal bid-to-cover ratio for the 1-year bond was 1.79 times [1] - The marginal bid-to-cover ratio for the 5-year bond was 3.83 times [1] - The marginal bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year bond was 13.22 times [1]

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Development Bank issued 3-year bonds totaling 2 billion with an issuance rate of 1.6524%, slightly below the expected 1.6500%, and received a bid-to-cover ratio of 5.06 times, with a marginal bid-to-cover ratio of 4.64 times [1] Group 1 - Agricultural Development Bank issued 10-year bonds totaling 16 billion with an issuance rate of 1.7389%, close to the expected 1.7400%, and achieved a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.72 times, with a marginal bid-to-cover ratio of 1.90 times [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance of China issued a 7-year bond with a scale of 109 billion, an issuance rate of 1.5302%, and a marginal rate of 1.5573%, with expectations of 1.5600% [1] - The bidding multiple for the 7-year bond was 4.22 times, and the marginal multiple was 13.84 times [1] - Additionally, a 10-year bond was issued with a scale of 131 billion, an issuance rate of 1.6188%, and a marginal rate of 1.6342%, with expectations of 1.6300% [1] - The bidding multiple for the 10-year bond was 5.04 times, and the marginal multiple was 6.91 times [1]