民间投资的结构跃迁，是宏观政策精准引导与市场机遇同频共振的产物。一系列"拆门槛""拓赛道""优 环境"的政策举措，有效稳定了市场预期，提振了投资信心。实现民间投资高质量发展，还要在深层次 结构改革上持续发力。 高技术服务业与民生消费成为民间投资的新热点。以信息传输业、水利管理业为代表的高技术及补短板 领域投资增速较快，其中，信息服务业，航空、航天器及设备制造业投资分别增长28.4%、16.9%。住 宿和餐饮业、文化体育娱乐业等直接服务于消费升级的领域，也实现了稳健增长。 民间投资的结构跃迁，是宏观政策精准引导与市场机遇同频共振的产物。一系列"拆门槛""拓赛道""优 环境"的政策举措，有效稳定了市场预期，提振了民间投资信心。从2025年5月民营经济促进法正式实 施，到9月国务院常务会议专题部署促进民间投资，以及11月国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步促进民间 投资发展的若干措施》，民间投资迎来了前所未有的政策利好。不过，要持续增强民间投资信心和活 力，实现民间投资高质量发展，还要在深层次结构改革上持续发力。当前，最关键、最迫切的改革有两 点： 一是推动"身份平等"向"规则公平"深化。当前，市场准入的显性门槛已大幅减少 ...

"国际市场对中国的意义重大，关起门来只看中国市场是不行的，只有在国际竞争中才能保证高质量发 展，特别是科技发展，尽管中国已经有部分走在世界前列，但还有很多仍需在国际竞争合作中才能保持 快速进步。所以，坚定不移地扩大开放、坚定不移地保持出口对中国经济非常重要。"中国人民大学经 济研究所联席所长、中诚信国际信用首席经济学家毛振华在CMF宏观经济月度数据分析会上对《华夏 时报》记者表示。 进一步扩大"朋友圈" 2025年，我国以亮眼的成绩展示了坚定支持自由贸易的成果。 1月14日，海关总署副署长王军表示，全年我国外贸进出口45.47万亿元，增长3.8%，连续第9年保持增 长，是入世以来时间跨度最长的连续增长。这也是我国进出口首次突破45万亿元大关，创历史新高。其 中，2025年我国进口达到18.48万亿元，规模也创历史新高，连续17年成为全球第二大进口市场。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 在当今世界充满变动的背景下，中国展现出的巨大确定性，为全球经济注入强劲动力。 当地时间1月20日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰在瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛2026年 年会并发表致辞。何立峰 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.41% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.61%, indicating a positive start for the market [1] - Lithium mining stocks showed strength, while tech stocks exhibited mixed performance, with Meituan rising by 1.46% [1] - The Hong Kong consumer sector experienced slight fluctuations after an initial rise, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) showing a small increase, led by stocks like Mixue Group, Blukoo, and Zhenjiu Lid, which all rose over 4% [1] Group 2 - According to China Merchants Securities, the recent weakness in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to the return of southbound funds to A-shares due to new public fund benchmark regulations, concerns over IPO financing, and a peak in lock-up expirations [1] - Looking ahead, it is expected that the Hong Kong market may see a year-end rally as southbound fund flows stabilize and the pressures from IPO supply and lock-up expirations ease [1] - Jianyin International suggests that investors should consider buying on dips before the spring market in early 2024, focusing on high-yield stocks and sectors related to new productivity and structural reforms, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, hydrogen, nuclear energy, and domestic consumption [1] Group 3 - Related popular ETFs include the Tourism ETF (562510) benefiting from holiday catalysts and the ice and snow economy, the Food and Beverage ETF (515170) aimed at boosting domestic demand, and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) focusing on e-commerce leaders and new consumption trends [2]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.41%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.61%. Lithium stocks showed strength, with Tianqi Lithium up by 2.19% and Ganfeng Lithium up by 1.84%. Meituan increased by 1.46% in a mixed performance among tech stocks [1] - According to China Merchants Securities, the recent weakness in Hong Kong stocks is attributed to southbound capital returning to A-shares due to new public fund benchmark regulations, the crowding-out effect, concerns over IPO financing, the upcoming peak of lock-up expirations, earnings downgrades, and overseas liquidity disturbances. Looking ahead, with the return of southbound capital and a reduction in crowding behavior, the pressure from IPO supply and lock-up amounts is expected to ease, leading to a potential year-end rally in Hong Kong stocks [1] - According to Ping An International, the market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with rotation in styles and investment themes. The lack of new catalysts, combined with uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts next year affecting external liquidity, may lead to a concentration of incremental capital in scarce assets, while the expansion space for valuations is limited. These factors could increase market volatility, making earnings performance more likely to determine market trends [1] Group 2 - Jianyin International suggests buying on dips before the end of 2025 to prepare for the spring rally early next year, gradually increasing offensive positions by early 2026. The focus should be on high-yield stocks, new productivity, and structural reform themes, with a selective approach towards technology, high-end manufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and domestic demand stocks (consumption and services) [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but rebounded before closing down, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.44% to 25,357.69 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.26% to 5,389.3 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.6% to 8,790.55 points [1] - Major technology stocks experienced declines, including Alibaba down 1.58%, Tencent down 0.58%, and Xiaomi down 3.11% [1] - Airline stocks continued to rise, with Capital Airport increasing by over 7% [1] - Lithium battery stocks saw significant declines, with CATL down over 3% [1] - New consumption concept stocks weakened, with Pop Mart down over 2% [1] Corporate News - CICC (03908.HK) is planning a stock swap to absorb and merge with Dongxing Securities (601198.SH) and Cinda Securities (601059.SH), with resumption of trading on December 18 [2] - Ronshine China (03301.HK) reported a total contract sales of approximately 3.492 billion yuan for the first 11 months, a year-on-year decrease of 49.6% [3] - Wanbang Investment (00158.HK) reported revenue of 164 million HKD for the year ending September 30, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, but a loss of 640 million HKD, widening by 309.61% [3] - Corning Jereh Pharmaceutical-B (09966.HK) had its IND application for JSKN027 officially accepted by the CDE [4] - China CNR (01766.HK) signed significant contracts totaling approximately 53.31 billion yuan over the past three months [5] - Bofull Property (00225.HK) reported a loss attributable to shareholders of 216 million HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 63.88% [6] - SenseTime (00020.HK) plans to issue shares at a discount of over 8% to raise approximately 3.15 billion HKD [7] - Minth Group (00425.HK) entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with a robotics company [8] - XunCe (03317.HK) is offering 22.5 million H-shares for subscription starting today until next Tuesday [9] - Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) appointed Bernardo Novick as CFO, effective April 1, 2026 [10] - China Metallurgical Group (01618.HK) plans to repurchase up to 2 billion A-shares and 500 million H-shares [11] - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) repurchased 1.283 million shares for 83.037 million HKD at prices between 63.9 and 65.55 HKD [12] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.057 million shares for 636 million HKD at prices between 595 and 605.5 HKD [13] - Techtronic Industries (00669.HK) repurchased 500,000 shares for 44.91 million HKD at prices between 89.35 and 90.50 HKD [14] - Country Garden Services (06098.HK) repurchased 3.697 million shares for 23.1748 million HKD at prices between 6.22 and 6.33 HKD [15] - Giga Bio (02367.HK) repurchased 400,000 shares for 13.9713 million HKD at prices between 34.62 and 35.22 HKD [16] Institutional Insights - According to CICC, the recent weakness in the Hong Kong market is attributed to southbound capital returning to A-shares due to new public fund benchmark regulations, concerns over IPO financing, and the upcoming peak of lock-up expirations [17] - Huatai Securities noted that while the market's downside is controllable, the upside potential remains limited, with sentiment indicators in a pessimistic range [18] - Ping An International expects the market to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with investment strategies focusing on a "technology + dividend" barbell approach [18] - Jianyin International recommends buying on dips before the spring market in early 2025, focusing on high-yield stocks and sectors like technology, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [19]

Group 1 - The core message of the Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 is to analyze and plan for the economic work in 2026, signaling a strong start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The meeting emphasizes that the main economic and social development goals for 2025 will be successfully achieved, with a projected economic growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters of 2023, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2][3] - The meeting highlights the importance of achieving a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is seen as a critical period for solidifying the foundation for socialist modernization [4] Group 2 - The meeting outlines a "high requirement" approach for 2026, focusing on better coordination of domestic economic work and international trade, as well as enhancing policy foresight and collaboration [4] - It is expected that a more proactive macroeconomic policy mix and forward-looking structural reforms will support a stable economic start in 2026, laying a solid foundation for the 2035 modernization goals [5] - The work tone for 2026 is set to prioritize stability while seeking progress, emphasizing quality and efficiency in economic governance [6] Group 3 - The meeting specifies the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [6] - Key areas of focus include maintaining domestic demand as the main driver, promoting innovation, and ensuring coordinated development while adhering to the "dual carbon" goals [6] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to clarify how to effectively implement policy measures for a successful start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and its macroeconomic policies, particularly in the context of the upcoming **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** scheduled for mid-December 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Policy Direction**: - The CEWC will set the macro policy tone for 2026, with expectations for a GDP growth target of **4.5-5%**. The consensus among market participants leans towards "around 5%", which is considered challenging due to slowing exports and a downturn in the property market [2][6][7]. 2. **Fiscal and Monetary Policy**: - A modest support tone in fiscal and monetary policy is anticipated, with a focus on innovation, consumption, and housing market stabilization. The government may confirm the extension of consumption subsidies in 2026 to mitigate disruptions from high base effects [6][8][10]. 3. **Property Market Dynamics**: - The property market is experiencing significant weakness, with **30-city property sales** declining by **-33% YoY** in November, worsening from **-27% YoY** in October. Contract sales from the top 100 developers also fell by **-37% YoY** [3][14][25]. 4. **Investment and Consumption Trends**: - Property investment is expected to contract by **-23% YoY**, while infrastructure investment may see a slight improvement. Retail sales growth is projected to be around **3.2% YoY**, showing some resilience despite the overall economic slowdown [4][31][26]. 5. **High Frequency Data**: - Manufacturing PMIs indicate subdued growth, with the NBS manufacturing PMI at **49.2** and non-manufacturing PMI at **49.5**. This reflects ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [12][13]. 6. **Trade and Export Performance**: - Export growth is expected to improve to **2% YoY** on a low base, with port cargo throughput growth increasing to **3% YoY**. However, the overall trade environment remains cautious due to global economic conditions [32][32]. 7. **Inflation and Credit Growth**: - CPI is projected to rise to **0.9% YoY**, while PPI is expected to be less negative at **-2% YoY**. Total social financing (TSF) credit growth is anticipated to decline to **8.4% YoY** [34][33]. Additional Important Insights - **Structural Reforms**: The CEWC is expected to emphasize structural reforms, particularly in technology and social welfare, aiming to enhance the social safety net and income distribution [9]. - **Household Consumption Support**: There is a strong focus on boosting household consumption through both supply and demand-side measures, with potential for earlier subsidy disbursements in Q1 2026 [8]. - **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued challenges in the property sector and broader economic growth [10][10]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future expectations of the Chinese economy and its various sectors.

Core Viewpoint - Shiseido has significantly lowered its earnings forecast, expecting a consolidated net loss of 52 billion yen for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to asset impairment losses from underperforming acquired American brands [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Shiseido anticipates a consolidated net loss of 52 billion yen, a substantial downgrade from a previous forecast of a profit of 6 billion yen, marking the largest loss in the company's history [2]. - Revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is projected to decrease by 3% year-on-year to 965 billion yen, falling short of the earlier estimate of 995 billion yen [4]. - For the first nine months of fiscal year 2025, the company reported a loss of 43.9 billion yen, compared to a profit of 75.4 million yen in the same period last year [4]. Asset Impairment Issues - The primary reason for the asset impairment in the U.S. business is the underperformance of the skincare brand "Drunk Elephant," acquired in 2019 for approximately 90 billion yen [6]. - Shiseido has faced asset impairment issues from previous acquisitions, including Bare Escentuals and Laura Mercier, leading to significant losses in past fiscal years [6][7]. Strategic Changes - Shiseido plans to implement layoffs and close its research facility in Singapore as part of its restructuring efforts, aiming for a total of over 70 billion yen in core operating profit by fiscal year 2026 [8]. - The new mid-term management plan for fiscal year 2030 emphasizes a shift in brand management strategy, with a focus on centralized decision-making from Japan's headquarters and a unified global brand strategy [8]. Market Challenges - The company faces increasing criticism for optimistic earnings forecasts and governance issues, with its stock price significantly declining from a peak of 9,250 yen in 2018 to around 2,000 yen recently [9]. - The competitive landscape in the premium cosmetics market is intensifying, raising questions about Shiseido's ability to effectively implement its brand rebuilding and market expansion strategies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The independence of central banks is crucial for economic stability, especially in the current international context where political pressures can undermine effective monetary policy [1][14]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is essential for implementing necessary and sometimes difficult decisions, as political systems tend to focus on short-term goals [1][14]. - The independence of central banks allows for a long-term perspective in monetary policy, which is vital for sustainable economic outcomes [14][15]. Group 2: Israel's Economic Transformation - Israel's economic success in the 1990s was attributed to a comprehensive strategy that included stabilizing inflation, reducing budget deficits, developing capital markets, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [2][12]. - The influx of highly skilled immigrants and improved geopolitical conditions contributed to Israel's transformation into a "startup nation," with high-tech exports accounting for over half of its total exports [2][12]. Group 3: Global Economic Governance - The shift from globalization to fragmentation is concerning, as countries are increasingly competing rather than cooperating, which can lead to unhealthy economic practices [6][8]. - China is recognized as a vital player in the global economy and should take on a larger role in global governance, responding to traditional systems' inadequacies [3][8]. Group 4: Emerging Markets Representation - Emerging markets have shown resilience and performed better than developed countries in recent years, but their representation in international institutions like the IMF does not reflect their economic weight [7][8]. - There is a growing recognition of the need to enhance the representation of emerging markets in global governance structures [7]. Group 5: Debt and Economic Stability - The accumulation of public debt is a long-term issue resulting from persistent budget and current account deficits, which can lead to systemic risks [9][10]. - Responsible government behavior and the development of robust capital markets are essential to manage high debt levels and maintain economic stability [10]. Group 6: Lessons from Israel - The experience of Israel in achieving price stability and economic openness can serve as a model for other emerging or middle-income economies [14][15]. - Effective public communication and building public support for monetary policy are critical for central banks to maintain their independence and achieve economic stability [15].

Core Points - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) have reached an agreement for a coalition government, with JIP confirming support for LDP candidate Sanae Takaichi in the upcoming prime ministerial election [1] - The agreement includes commitments to swiftly implement economic measures and structural reforms, as well as a proposal to reduce the number of seats in the House of Representatives by approximately 10% [1] - A mechanism for discussions on abolishing political donations from corporations and organizations will be established, aiming for consensus during Takaichi's tenure as LDP president [1] Political Dynamics - JIP will participate in the coalition as an "outside cooperation," meaning its members will not join the cabinet, despite LDP's desire for JIP to send cabinet members [1] - JIP's decision to support Takaichi indicates a high likelihood of her winning the prime ministerial election, potentially making her Japan's first female prime minister [1] - The prime ministerial election will take place in the National Diet, where a candidate must secure a majority in the first round of voting to win [1]