来源：国是直通车 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，传递出实现"十五五"良好开局的有力信 号。 总结2025：主要目标将顺利实现 从年末回望，如何在内外复杂环境中实现稳定且高质量的增长，是2025年中国经济的一条主线。 首先，放眼全球，前三季度中国经济5.2%的增长水平在主要经济体中名列前茅。其中，三季度中国经 济总量达35.5万亿元人民币，超过全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量。 其次，中国力推经济结构调整、新旧动能转换，效果正在显现。最新数据显示，中国高技术制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）已连续10个月位于临界点以上，相关行业持续保持增长。此次会议亦表示，过去一 年"新质生产力稳步发展"。 把时间尺度拉长，会议还给出判断：过去5年，中国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等 软实力明显提升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 布局2026："高要求"谋划"十五五"良好开局 "十五五"时期被官方定位为"基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期"，开好局重要性 不言而喻。 "更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争""更好统筹发展和安全，实施 ...

ab Global Research CEWC and data preview: modest policy support; weak but mixed growth in Nov CEWC preview: modest policy support, more focus on rebalancing The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) in mid-December will set key macro policy tone for 2026. Similar to previously, key policy targets (e.g. GDP growth, headline fiscal deficit) and details of supportive measures will be released in the NPC meeting next March, not in the CEWC. We expect China to set GDP growth target at 4.5-5% for 2026, ...

Core Viewpoint - Shiseido has significantly lowered its earnings forecast, expecting a consolidated net loss of 52 billion yen for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to asset impairment losses from underperforming acquired American brands [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Shiseido anticipates a consolidated net loss of 52 billion yen, a substantial downgrade from a previous forecast of a profit of 6 billion yen, marking the largest loss in the company's history [2]. - Revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is projected to decrease by 3% year-on-year to 965 billion yen, falling short of the earlier estimate of 995 billion yen [4]. - For the first nine months of fiscal year 2025, the company reported a loss of 43.9 billion yen, compared to a profit of 75.4 million yen in the same period last year [4]. Asset Impairment Issues - The primary reason for the asset impairment in the U.S. business is the underperformance of the skincare brand "Drunk Elephant," acquired in 2019 for approximately 90 billion yen [6]. - Shiseido has faced asset impairment issues from previous acquisitions, including Bare Escentuals and Laura Mercier, leading to significant losses in past fiscal years [6][7]. Strategic Changes - Shiseido plans to implement layoffs and close its research facility in Singapore as part of its restructuring efforts, aiming for a total of over 70 billion yen in core operating profit by fiscal year 2026 [8]. - The new mid-term management plan for fiscal year 2030 emphasizes a shift in brand management strategy, with a focus on centralized decision-making from Japan's headquarters and a unified global brand strategy [8]. Market Challenges - The company faces increasing criticism for optimistic earnings forecasts and governance issues, with its stock price significantly declining from a peak of 9,250 yen in 2018 to around 2,000 yen recently [9]. - The competitive landscape in the premium cosmetics market is intensifying, raising questions about Shiseido's ability to effectively implement its brand rebuilding and market expansion strategies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The independence of central banks is crucial for economic stability, especially in the current international context where political pressures can undermine effective monetary policy [1][14]. Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is essential for implementing necessary and sometimes difficult decisions, as political systems tend to focus on short-term goals [1][14]. - The independence of central banks allows for a long-term perspective in monetary policy, which is vital for sustainable economic outcomes [14][15]. Group 2: Israel's Economic Transformation - Israel's economic success in the 1990s was attributed to a comprehensive strategy that included stabilizing inflation, reducing budget deficits, developing capital markets, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [2][12]. - The influx of highly skilled immigrants and improved geopolitical conditions contributed to Israel's transformation into a "startup nation," with high-tech exports accounting for over half of its total exports [2][12]. Group 3: Global Economic Governance - The shift from globalization to fragmentation is concerning, as countries are increasingly competing rather than cooperating, which can lead to unhealthy economic practices [6][8]. - China is recognized as a vital player in the global economy and should take on a larger role in global governance, responding to traditional systems' inadequacies [3][8]. Group 4: Emerging Markets Representation - Emerging markets have shown resilience and performed better than developed countries in recent years, but their representation in international institutions like the IMF does not reflect their economic weight [7][8]. - There is a growing recognition of the need to enhance the representation of emerging markets in global governance structures [7]. Group 5: Debt and Economic Stability - The accumulation of public debt is a long-term issue resulting from persistent budget and current account deficits, which can lead to systemic risks [9][10]. - Responsible government behavior and the development of robust capital markets are essential to manage high debt levels and maintain economic stability [10]. Group 6: Lessons from Israel - The experience of Israel in achieving price stability and economic openness can serve as a model for other emerging or middle-income economies [14][15]. - Effective public communication and building public support for monetary policy are critical for central banks to maintain their independence and achieve economic stability [15].

Core Points - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) have reached an agreement for a coalition government, with JIP confirming support for LDP candidate Sanae Takaichi in the upcoming prime ministerial election [1] - The agreement includes commitments to swiftly implement economic measures and structural reforms, as well as a proposal to reduce the number of seats in the House of Representatives by approximately 10% [1] - A mechanism for discussions on abolishing political donations from corporations and organizations will be established, aiming for consensus during Takaichi's tenure as LDP president [1] Political Dynamics - JIP will participate in the coalition as an "outside cooperation," meaning its members will not join the cabinet, despite LDP's desire for JIP to send cabinet members [1] - JIP's decision to support Takaichi indicates a high likelihood of her winning the prime ministerial election, potentially making her Japan's first female prime minister [1] - The prime ministerial election will take place in the National Diet, where a candidate must secure a majority in the first round of voting to win [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **A-share market** in China, highlighting recent trends in investor sentiment and market performance amid potential government interventions and economic indicators. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Sentiment Decline**: A-share investor sentiment has decreased significantly, with the weighted MSASI dropping by **32 percentage points** to **126%** and the simple MSASI to **121%** compared to the previous cutoff date of August 28 [2][6][11]. 2. **Market Correction**: Reports of government measures to cool market sentiment have led to a notable market correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index down **1.3%**, CSI 300 Index down **2.1%**, and ChiNext index down **4.2%** on September 4 [4][11]. 3. **Turnover Trends**: Daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and Northbound fell by **26%** (to **RMB 658 billion**), **25%** (to **RMB 2,366 billion**), and **17%** (to **RMB 166 billion**), respectively, indicating reduced trading activity [2][11]. 4. **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading recorded net inflows of **US$ 2.3 billion** from August 28 to September 3, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching **US$ 128.1 billion** and **US$ 3.4 billion**, respectively [3][11]. 5. **Earnings Misses**: The A-share market has seen a moderate miss in earnings, with a slight deterioration compared to Q1 results, indicating potential challenges in corporate fundamentals [11][12]. Additional Important Insights 1. **PMI Indicators**: August PMIs showed a continued growth slowdown, with construction PMI dropping to a record low of **49.1** and manufacturing PMI for consumer goods at **49.2**, reflecting weakening economic conditions [11]. 2. **Government Policy Impact**: The upcoming **15th Five-Year Plan** to be announced in mid-October is expected to be a critical checkpoint for assessing the need for structural reforms to support economic stability [11]. 3. **Monitoring Signposts**: Investors are advised to monitor key indicators such as onshore bond yields, policy catalysts focusing on consumption and social benefits, earnings trajectories, and potential government interventions to stabilize the market [11]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently facing challenges due to declining investor sentiment, market corrections, and economic indicators suggesting a slowdown. The effectiveness of government interventions and upcoming policy announcements will be crucial in determining the market's trajectory in the near future.

Core Viewpoint - The IMF emphasizes the need for policymakers to focus on addressing trade tensions and implementing macroeconomic policies to tackle potential domestic imbalances in the face of ongoing downside risks and high uncertainty [1] Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Policymakers should restore fiscal space and ensure that debt remains at sustainable levels to maintain economic stability [1] - Monetary policy must be carefully adjusted according to each country's specific circumstances, with clear and consistent communication [1] - The independence of central banks must be protected to ensure effective monetary policy [1] Group 2: Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are crucial for enhancing productivity, supporting job creation, and leveraging new technologies to promote medium-term growth [1] - These reforms are also essential for offsetting demographic changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nissan is facing significant financial challenges, with projected losses for the fiscal year 2024 reaching up to 750 billion yen, marking the highest loss in its history due to declining sales, particularly in North America, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Nissan anticipates a consolidated loss of 700 to 750 billion yen, a stark contrast to the previous year's profit of 426.6 billion yen [1]. - The company's operating profit is expected to be 85 billion yen, a decrease of 85% year-on-year, and lower than previous forecasts by 35 billion yen [2]. - Global sales for fiscal year 2024 are projected to be 3.35 million units, a 3% decline compared to the previous year, falling short of the initial target by 50,000 units [1]. Structural Reforms - Nissan is undergoing fundamental structural reforms, including a plan to reduce production capacity by 20% (1 million units) and lay off 9,000 employees [2]. - The company plans to cut 2,500 jobs in global management and 6,500 in factories, along with the closure of three global plants [2][3]. Leadership Changes - The new CEO, Ivan Espinosa, who took office in April, emphasized the need for asset reassessment and the impact of restructuring costs on the company's financials [2][3]. - The previous president, Makoto Uchida, resigned in March due to poor performance and failed merger talks with Honda [3].