证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260301 周观：震荡格局延续，政策催化仍待确认 （2026 年第 8 期） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 节后利率上行叠加人民币升值，如何看待债市后续的运行态势和新催 化？本周（2026.2.24-2026.2.27），10 年期国债活跃券 250016 收益率 从 2 月 13 日的 1.78%上行 2.2bp 至 2 月 27 日的 1.802%。周度复盘：周 二（2.24），春节假期期间，特朗普此前的关税被判无效，再次推出 15% 的对华关税，较先前有所降低，但债市对此定价有限。随后，2026 年 2 月 LPR 公布，与此前持平，符合市场预期。尾盘央行宣布续作 6000 亿 元 MLF，当月到期量为 3000 亿元，展现对资金面呵护态度。假期后首 日，市场成交清淡，全天 10 年期国债活跃券 250016 收益率上行 0.25bp。 周三（2.25），早盘对于上海楼市政策放松有所预期，利率出现上行。午 后政策落地，包括外环内限购政策放宽、公积金可贷额度提高等，利率 继续上行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券 250016 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day OMO injection of 402 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in liquidity [1] - The bond market experienced a mixed performance, with a divergence between long-term and short-term bonds, as the market remained in a narrow fluctuation range [1] - The overall sentiment in the bond market was cautious, influenced by the stock market's volatility, leading to a general decline in bond prices [2] Group 2: Interest Rates and Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.45 basis points to 1.8295%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 1.35 basis points to 2.2555% [1] - The Shibor rates showed a mixed trend, with the overnight Shibor declining to 1.3710%, down by 4.90 basis points, while the 1-month Shibor remained relatively stable [3] - The bond market saw a decrease in trading volume, with the total transaction scale dropping by 28.9 billion yuan to 207.8 billion yuan [3] Group 3: REITs Market Performance - The public REITs market showed a slight increase, with the index rising by 0.08% to 1045.72 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 3.55% for the year [4] - There was significant divergence within the REITs sector, with consumer and high-speed sectors leading gains, while industrial park and innovation sectors faced declines [4] - The total trading volume in the REITs market increased by 23.35% to 666 million yuan, indicating a neutral trading environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major bond yields have mostly decreased, indicating a potential shift in the interest rate environment [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Changes - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250016) decreased by 0.3 basis points to 1.826% [1] - The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond (active bond 250215) fell by 0.15 basis points to 1.8975% [1] - Conversely, the yield on the 30-year government bond (active bond 2500006) increased by 0.58 basis points to 2.1888% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The interbank major bond yields have declined across the board as of October 30, indicating a potential shift in the interest rate environment [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The yield on the 10-year government bond active note "250016" decreased by 1.05 basis points, reaching 1.8025% [1] - The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond active note "250215" fell by 0.7 basis points, settling at 1.882% [1] - The yield on the ultra-long bond active note "2500006" dropped by 1.25 basis points, now at 2.1635% [1]