美国国债期权交易员正加大押注力度，认为未来几周10年期美债收益率将突破近期区间，跌破 4%关 口，至11月以来最低水平。 自12月底以来，期权市场的看涨情绪就在持续增强。本周开始陆续公布不受政府停摆影响的关键经济数 据之际，投资者处于观望状态。过去一个月，基准10年期美债收益率在0.1个百分点左右的范围内波 动。 美国国债期权交易员正加大押注力度，认为未来几周10年期美债收益率将突破近期区间，跌破 4%关 口，至11月以来最低水平。 自12月底以来，期权市场的看涨情绪就在持续增强。本周开始陆续公布不受政府停摆影响的关键经济数 据之际，投资者处于观望状态。过去一个月，基准10年期美债收益率在0.1个百分点左右的范围内波 动。 周二公布的仓位数据显示，三月10年期期权买盘进一步涌现，押注美债走高。本周的资金流向显示，一 位大买家押注收益率将从当前略低于4.2%的水平回落至3.95%左右。 这些期权将于2月20日到期，意味着覆盖了美联储1月28日的政策决议。交易员预计，该央行在连续三次 降息以应对就业市场降温迹象后，可能会按兵不动。 随着一系列劳动力市场数据即将发布，尤其是周五的12月非农报告，10年期美债期权头寸 ...

Group 1 - Bond traders have rapidly built long positions in U.S. Treasuries, hoping for a boost from the upcoming June non-farm payroll report [1] - The recent data showed a surprising increase in job vacancies for May, indicating a strong labor market, which led to a sell-off in the bond market [1] - Citigroup strategist David Bieber noted that long positions in U.S. Treasuries have been accumulating, with tactical positions becoming "highly one-sided" after significant long building over the past week [1] Group 2 - The bullish momentum in the U.S. Treasury futures market is also reflected in the options market, with traders spending up to $32 million on options betting on further increases in 10-year Treasury yields [3] - There is a concentration of long positions in the U.S. Treasury market, and if employment data does not support expectations for a Fed rate cut next month, traders may begin to unwind their positions [3] - The market is still seeking to hedge against potential rising yields, with traders establishing hedge positions betting that 10-year Treasury yields will rebound to around 4.3% before Thursday's close [3]

Core Viewpoint - Traders in the U.S. Treasury market are heavily betting on a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, as indicated by Chairman Powell's dovish signals in Congress [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Expectations and Movements - Significant options betting has occurred, with at least $38 million in premiums paid for call options on 10-year Treasury bonds, targeting a drop in yields to 4% or below [1][4] - The market is pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut this year, with expectations for two cuts in September and December [5][22] - The 10-year Treasury yield has recently dipped below 4.3%, marking its lowest level since early May [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Influences - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell by 5.4 points to 93, below economists' expectations, contributing to the dovish sentiment in the market [6] - The decline in consumer confidence reflects a significant drop in expectations for future business conditions, indicating potential economic weakness [6] Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - There has been a notable increase in open interest for August call options on the 10-year Treasury, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards a yield drop [9][10] - The skew in Treasury options has shifted towards a bullish stance, with traders paying higher premiums to hedge against falling yields [19] Group 4: Broader Market Implications - A decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4% could alleviate pressure on risk assets, particularly benefiting technology stocks and other high-growth sectors [24][25] - The current yield levels are critical as they serve as a key input in valuation models for equities, influencing the overall market sentiment [25]