Report Information - Report title: "Fund Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report" [1] - Report date: April 1, 2026 [1] - Data date: March 31, 2026 [2] Key Points about Fund Flows and Positions Morgan Chase - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 14.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] Qiankun Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 14.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] UBS Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented for various products, with the net position reaching up to 4.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [2] CITIC Futures - Net position and daily position change data are presented, with the net position reaching up to 10.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [4] Guotai Junan - Net position and daily position change data are presented, with the net position reaching up to 20.00% and daily position change shown on the chart [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In March 2026, the domestic stock index futures market weakened overall, with all major futures contracts closing down. Small and medium - cap related index futures declined more significantly than large - cap blue - chip varieties. The market sentiment remained weak throughout the month, and the index futures were under pressure [4]. - The full - bond futures showed a differentiated trend last month. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures declined, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures showed slight increases [5]. - In March, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose above the critical point, indicating an improvement in the overall business climate [8][11][15]. - The overall market valuation is at a relatively high level, and the valuation pressure of small and medium - cap varieties is more prominent. The high valuation restricts the upward space of the market, and if the performance fails to meet expectations, there will be greater valuation adjustment pressure [33][34]. - The trend of index futures deviates from the repair of the domestic economic fundamentals. The core suppression factors are the high overall valuation and the overseas geopolitical conflicts, which lead to a decline in market risk preference. The size - style differentiation is significant, with small and medium - cap varieties adjusting more than large - cap blue - chip varieties [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Futures**: In March, the domestic stock index futures market weakened. The CSI 300 futures (IF) closed at 4,375.8 with a monthly decline of 7.17% (-338.0); the SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2,804.0 with a monthly decline of 7.93% (-241.4); the CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 7,425.0 with a monthly decline of 14.12% (-1220.4); the CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7,379.4 with a monthly decline of 13.50% (-1152.0) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 111.690 with a monthly decline of 0.38% (-0.43); the 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 108.400 with a monthly increase of 0.01% (0.010); the 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 106.025 with a monthly increase of 0.11% (0.120); the 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.538 with a monthly increase of 0.09% (0.090) [5]. 3.2 Valuation Analysis - As of March 31, the PE of the CSI 300 index was 13.96 times, the quantile was 77.69%, and the PB was 1.44 times; the PE of the SSE 50 index was 11.30 times, the quantile was 75.34%, and the PB was 1.22 times; the PE of the CSI 500 index was 35.15 times, the quantile was 86.69%, and the PB was 2.42 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 index was 46.94 times, the quantile was 75.54%, and the PB was 2.55 times [18]. 3.3 Other Data - **Stock - Bond Spread**: There are two formulas for calculating the stock - bond spread. One is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [26]. - **China - Buffett Indicator**: The reasonable valuation range of A - shares is about 70% - 100%. As of March 30, 2026, the "total market value/GDP" was 88.43%, the quantile in historical data was 87.55%, and the quantile in the last 10 - year data was 91.34% [29][30]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - **Policy**: The policy maintains a loose tone. The market liquidity environment is stable and loose, and the policy emphasizes the implementation of active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [32]. - **Domestic Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, enterprises resumed work and production, and the market activity increased. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing business climate improved, and the comprehensive economic climate returned to the expansion range [32]. - **Overseas Situation**: Geopolitical conflicts continued to ferment, leading to an increase in global risk - aversion sentiment, rising commodity prices, and increased production costs for domestic enterprises, which may affect the global supply chain and inflation expectations and disturb the policy rhythm [32]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions - **Single - Side Trading**: Be cautious and participate in bottom - fishing. Large - cap blue - chip index futures have a relatively higher safety margin. Pay attention to the layout opportunities after the shock correction. For small and medium - cap varieties, do not blindly chase the high and strictly control the position to prevent volatility risks [35]. - **Arbitrage**: Participate in the spread convergence strategy of going long on IH and short on IM/IC. Pay close attention to the progress of geopolitical conflicts and market style switching signals. If the risk - aversion sentiment continues to rise, the defensive attribute of the large - cap style will be dominant in the short term, and set stop - losses strictly [35]. - **Options**: In the context of expected market volatility, use the covered call strategy to increase the holding income. To prevent the downside risks caused by valuation decline and geopolitical conflicts, consider buying out - of - the - money put options for hedging [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on weekly technical indicator signals, different sectors of commodity and financial futures show various trends. In the commodity futures, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black and shipping, energy, chemical, and agricultural product sectors have different signals of rising, falling, or oscillation. In the financial futures, stock index futures mostly show bearish signals, while treasury bond futures show an oscillatory trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - Precious metals: Gold shows a bearish signal, and silver shows an oscillatory signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate show bullish signals, aluminum shows a bearish signal, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a weekly "umbrella line" but no reversal, a shrinking MACD red column, and a narrowing Bollinger Band [9][10][13] 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Hot - rolled coil, coking coal, and manganese silicon show bullish signals, and the rest, including European container shipping, show oscillatory signals. For example, rebar is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a flat weekly line, a MACD death - cross above the zero - axis on the daily line, and the price touching the MA60 [18][19][24] 3.3能源及化工板块 - In the energy sector, crude oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, while fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show oscillatory signals. In the chemical sector, soda ash, 20 - rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, pulp is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bearish monthly line, weakening upward momentum on the weekly line, and a MACD running below the zero - axis on the daily line [31][32][35] 3.4农产品板块 - Soybean oil, sugar, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, and red dates show bullish signals, soybean No. 1, rapeseed meal, and apples show bearish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, corn is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bullish weekly line but a shrinking red column and a MACD green column expanding on the daily line [40][41][45] 3.5股指期货板块 - Shanghai 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 stock index futures all show bearish signals. For example, IC CSI 500 futures and IF SSE 300 futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [50][51][53] 3.6国债期货板块 - 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all show oscillatory signals. For example, the 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [62][63][66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on March 26, 2026, with some varieties rising and others falling. The market is significantly affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to be cautious when participating in the market, and some varieties are suggested to be observed on the sidelines [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Commodity Performance and Capital Flow - **Futures Market Overview**: As of the close on March 26, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Methanol, synthetic rubber, and asphalt rose by over 4%, while palladium fell by over 5%. Stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures rose. In terms of capital flow, methanol 2605, glass 2605, and asphalt 2606 had capital inflows, while中证 500 2606,沪深 300 2606, and沪金 2606 had capital outflows [6][7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Varieties - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, with an overall increase. Supply - side factors such as tight overseas copper resources and low domestic inventory support the price, but the weak terminal demand restricts the upward space. The inventory is being digested smoothly during the peak season, but the short - term price is still under pressure due to the ongoing war [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations. Although the price increased slightly, the production decreased, and the inventory reduction was limited. The demand growth showed signs of weakening, and the market lacked support, with a difficult - to - change wide - range shock pattern in the short term [11]. - **Crude Oil**: EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The situation in the Middle - East, especially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, affected the supply. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the situation in the Middle - East is still uncertain, and the oil price fluctuates greatly [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply decreased, and the demand gradually recovered. The inventory was at a low level, but the supply pressure was not substantially relieved. Due to the possible negotiation between the U.S. and Iran and the complex Middle - East situation, it is recommended to observe on the sidelines [14]. - **PP**: The downstream demand recovered slowly, and the enterprise's operating rate decreased. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation, and the supply was expected to decrease. The market fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to observe on the sidelines [16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate decreased, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation, and the supply was expected to decrease. The market fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to observe on the sidelines [17][18]. - **PVC**: The supply decreased, and the demand gradually recovered. The social inventory decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival, but it was still at a high level. The upstream raw material supply was tight, and the market fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to observe on the sidelines [19][21]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and closed low, with a decline. The mine production resumed smoothly, but the downstream recovery was slow. The price increase has not been implemented, and the subsequent conflict situation needs to be observed [22]. - **Urea**: It opened high and closed high, with an increase. The supply was guaranteed, and the inventory continued to decrease. The market was in a stage of peak - season verification, and it was in a strong consolidation state, but it is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [23][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1] Core Views - Based on weekly technical indicators, in the commodity futures market, most precious metals and non - ferrous metals show bearish signals, while some black and shipping, energy, and agricultural products show bullish signals; in the financial futures market, most stock index futures show bearish signals, and 2 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, with others being volatile [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver in the precious metals sector show weekly bearish signals. In the non - ferrous sector, alumina shows a bullish signal, while most other varieties like nickel, copper, and aluminum show bearish signals, and lead and polysilicon are volatile [9] - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. This week, the price decreased by 3.77%, the weekly MACD red bar contracted, and the daily MACD showed a death - cross signal. Attention should be paid to the support of the MA60 [13] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Hot - rolled coils, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon in the black and shipping sector show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile; European container shipping is also volatile [18] - The main contract of rebar is expected to be volatile in the short term. The daily MACD shows a bullish arrangement but the red bar is shortening. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough situation between 3130 - 3150 yuan/ton and the support of the MA60 [22] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, etc. show bullish signals; in the chemical sector, plastics, PVC, etc. show bullish signals, while p - xylene, glass, etc. show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile [27] - The main contract of pulp is expected to be volatile in the short term. The monthly MACD shows a bearish arrangement, and the weekly price fluctuates between 5000 - 5500 yuan/ton [31] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Logs, soybeans No.2, rapeseed oil, etc. in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, while cotton, pigs, and red dates show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile [36] - The main contract of corn is expected to be volatile and rising in the short term. The weekly K - line shows a "cross - line" pattern, and the price fluctuates between 2380 - 2420 yuan/ton [41] 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - The Shanghai 50 futures show a volatile trend, while the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures show bearish signals [47] - The IC CSI 500 futures have short - term downward pressure. The weekly price dropped by 7.97%, and the daily price broke through the MA60 and approached the MA120 [50] - The IF CSI 300 futures still have short - term downward risks. The weekly price dropped by 3.68%, and the daily price broke through the MA120 [53] 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures show volatile trends [59] - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The weekly price moved away from the MA60, and the daily price broke through the original volatile range [63] - The TS 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile in the short term. The daily MACD shows a bullish arrangement, and the price runs between the middle and upper rails of the Bollinger Band [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 17th, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 4%, alumina rose over 3%, and palladium rose over 2%. On the other hand, pulp dropped over 3%. The performance of stock index futures and treasury bond futures also varied. The flow of funds in the futures market showed significant differences among contracts [4][5]. - Due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes, the prices and trends of different commodities like copper, lithium carbonate, crude oil, and others are affected differently. The prices of some commodities are expected to be strong and volatile, while others may face downward pressure or return to fundamentals [7][9][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 17th, platinum, alumina, palladium, asphalt, iron ore, and Shanghai lead in the domestic futures main contracts rose, while pulp, caustic soda, live pigs, etc. fell. The performance of stock index futures and treasury bond futures also differed. In terms of fund flow, crude oil 2605, pulp 2605, and alumina 2605 had capital inflows, while CSI 2603, CSI 1000 2603, and Shanghai - Shenzhen 2603 had capital outflows [4][5]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Different Commodities 3.2.1. Shanghai Copper - In February 2026, China imported 231.0 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The electrolytic copper production in March increased. The copper product industry started to recover, but the terminal data was not optimistic. Affected by factors such as oil prices, inflation, and the US Federal Reserve meeting, the copper market remained weak [7]. 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate rose. The export of lithium concentrates in Zimbabwe was suspended. After the Spring Festival, the upstream production increased, but there was a high risk of domestic lithium mine resumption. The inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The terminal demand showed signs of weakening, but the export increased. The price of lithium carbonate mainly fluctuated in a range, and future policies and resumption might affect the market [9]. 3.2.3. Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the overall oil product inventory decreased. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran affected Iran's oil production and exports. The Strait of Hormuz was almost shut down, leading to production cuts in Middle - Eastern countries. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the risk of crude oil price increase remained, and the market was highly volatile [10][11]. 3.2.4. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased slightly, and the expected production in March increased. The downstream industry's start - up rate increased, and the shipment volume increased. The inventory rate remained low. Affected by the supply of raw materials from the Middle East, the asphalt price was expected to be strong and volatile [12][14]. 3.2.5. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased slightly, and the enterprise start - up rate was at a low level. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of crude oil increased, and the supply of raw materials was tight. The domestic supply - demand situation improved, and the price was likely to rise [15]. 3.2.6. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate was at a neutral level, and the downstream start - up rate increased. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of crude oil increased, and new production capacity was put into operation. The domestic supply - demand situation improved, and the price was likely to rise [16][17]. 3.2.7. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price rose, the PVC start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate recovered. The export inquiry improved, but the social inventory was still high. Affected by environmental policies and the supply of raw materials, the price was likely to rise [18]. 3.2.8. Coking Coal - The coking coal price低开 and then rose, showing weakness. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased, and the domestic mine output increased. The inventory decreased significantly, and the downstream replenished stocks. The price was affected by energy shortage expectations, but the market was complex [20]. 3.2.9. Urea - Urea prices fell nearly 2% on the day. The supply was abundant, and the downstream demand was from both agriculture and industry. The inventory did not show a large - scale accumulation, and the market was expected to stabilize after a correction [21].

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on March 10, 2026. Some commodities like silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate rose, while others such as container shipping to Europe and SC crude oil declined. The market was significantly affected by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - related conflict, which led to large - scale price fluctuations in commodities [4][5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand fundamentals. For example, copper has a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation; lithium carbonate shows a wide - range oscillation; and crude oil prices are highly volatile due to OPEC+ production adjustments and the Middle - East situation [7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: It opened and closed higher. March production is expected to increase both month - on - month and year - on - year. The regenerated copper market is tight, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. However, the shortage of copper ore and policy disturbances have not yet affected actual production, and inventory is still accumulating. The price is affected by the Middle - East situation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened and closed higher, with prices rising. The开工 rate dropped, and production in February decreased. There is a high risk of lithium mine resumption, which is a potential negative factor. Inventory is being depleted, and downstream inventory is accumulating. The price is affected by the Middle - East conflict and shows wide - range oscillation [9]. - **Silver and Gold**: Silver had a significant increase of over 7%, and gold also had capital inflows. The specific reasons were not detailed, but they were likely affected by the overall market and the Middle - East situation [4][5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will increase production in April. The US crude inventory increased more than expected. The Middle - East conflict, especially the situation in Iran, has a huge impact on the oil market. The price has fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to observe the Middle - East situation [10][11]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side's开工 rate increased slightly, and the expected production in March increased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and attention should be paid to the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials [12][13]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工 rate is recovering, and the enterprise开工 rate decreased. The inventory is at a neutral level. The price is affected by the Middle - East situation and crude oil price fluctuations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate decreased slightly, and the downstream开工 rate is recovering. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The price is affected by the Middle - East situation and crude oil price, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [15][16]. - **PVC**: The upstream电石 price increased, the supply side's开工 rate decreased slightly, and the downstream开工 rate is recovering. The export situation improved, but the inventory is still high. The price is affected by the crude oil price and is recommended to be observed [17]. - **Urea**: It opened and closed lower. The market has sufficient supply, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The price was affected by the futures market and the Middle - East conflict, and it is expected to continue to adjust [20]. Coking Coal - It opened and closed lower. The domestic mines are resuming production, and the inventory of mines increased while that of independent coking enterprises and steel mills decreased. The steel mill's demand is low, and the price is affected by the Middle - East situation and is expected to oscillate weakly [19].

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market has experienced a significant surge, raising concerns about inflation expectations, which has led to a sharp decline in the domestic bond market, referred to as "Black Monday" [1] Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The 30-year Treasury futures contract saw a maximum intraday decline of over 1.2%, reaching a low of 111.36 yuan, marking the largest single-day drop since 2026, ultimately closing down 1.11% at 111.52 yuan [2] - The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond increased by 4 basis points, approaching the 2.30% mark, while the yields on other maturities also rose, indicating a general upward trend in bond yields [12] - On March 9, the bond futures market experienced widespread declines, with the 30-year Treasury futures down 1.11%, the 10-year down 0.21%, and the 5-year down 0.14%, reflecting a significant sell-off in the bond market [11] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The recent crisis in Iran has reignited inflation concerns in financial markets, leading to notable declines in global bond markets, including U.S. Treasuries and Eurozone bonds [4] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen from approximately 4.6% to around 4.8% in just six trading days, an increase of over 20 basis points [5] - Analysts suggest that a 10% increase in oil prices could lead to a 0.2% to 0.3% rise in the U.S. CPI year-on-year, indicating that the short-term impact of rising oil prices on inflation should not be underestimated [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market is facing a "major test" as inflation fears grow, with U.S. Treasuries and other global bonds experiencing significant declines [4] - The rise in oil prices is expected to create a typical stagflation environment, where rising risk-free rates coincide with squeezed profit margins due to increased energy and labor costs [9] - The market's focus has shifted from a quick resolution of geopolitical tensions to a prolonged conflict, which could lead to increased liquidity risks and inflationary pressures in the bond market [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, similar to 2025. Developed countries will keep stable economic growth, and developing countries will also maintain a relatively stable growth rate. Global geopolitics may ease [3][57]. - China's economic growth rate in 2026 may slow slightly compared to 2025, with the full - year growth rate likely ranging from 4.5% - 5.0%. The marginal effect of the "two - new" policies will diminish, real estate investment may continue to decline, and export growth may fall slightly compared to 2025 [3][57]. - China's monetary policy in 2026 is expected to remain generally loose. There is a possibility of a small - scale interest rate cut, and the probability of raising policy interest rates is low. The short - end of the Treasury yield curve may continue to decline, while the long - end and ultra - long - end may remain horizontally volatile, making band trading suitable for Treasury futures [3][70][90]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Treasury Futures Contracts and Delivery System - China Financial Futures Exchange has four listed Treasury futures varieties: 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year. Each has specific contract elements such as contract value, minimum price change, daily price limit, minimum margin, and deliverable bond maturity [13][14]. - Treasury futures contracts have common elements including trading hours, last trading day, last delivery day, delivery method, contract months, and quotation methods. The delivery process includes rolling delivery and centralized delivery. The price of Treasury futures is mainly affected by spot prices, which are influenced by factors such as money supply, macro - economic policies, and supply - and - demand [16][17][18]. 3.2 Second Part: Treasury Yield and Futures Market Review in 2025 - Over the past 10 years, the 10 - year Treasury yield has shown different trends due to factors such as nominal economic growth, inflation, and the COVID - 19 pandemic. In 2024 - 2025, due to low inflation and loose monetary policies, the yield continued to decline [23][26]. - In 2025, Treasury futures prices fluctuated due to factors such as central bank policies, A - share market performance, and international trade relations. The market first rose, then fell, and rebounded later [3][27]. - In 2025, the cumulative trading volume of 30 - year Treasury futures was 30.46 million lots, 10 - year was 21.85 million lots, 5 - year was 16.80 million lots, and 2 - year was 9.66 million lots. The total annual trading volume was 97 trillion yuan, a 44% year - on - year increase. By the end of December, the 10 - year Treasury futures had the largest open interest, followed by the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year. The total open - interest amount was about 726 billion yuan [35]. 3.3 Third Part: Macroeconomic Review and Outlook - China's GDP grew by 5.0% in 2025, achieving the target set by the Two Sessions [3][38]. - In 2025, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. General infrastructure investment decreased by 1.5%, manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.2%. In 2026, manufacturing investment may maintain low - single - digit growth, and real estate investment is likely to continue to decline [40][43]. - In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 50.1202 trillion yuan, a 3.7% year - on - year increase. In 2026, fiscal policies may continue to promote consumption, and the total retail sales growth rate is expected to be about 4.5% [46][48]. - In 2025, China's total export value was $3.77 trillion, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, and the import value was $2.58 trillion, remaining flat. In 2026, export growth may decline slightly [51][57]. - In 2025, the CPI remained flat compared to the previous year, and the PPI decreased by 2.6%. In 2026, CPI may have a moderate increase of about 0.5%, and the year - on - year decline of PPI is expected to narrow significantly [54]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Analysis of Treasury Supply and Demand - China's fiscal deficit rate has generally increased since 2012. In 2025, the target deficit rate was raised to 4%. In 2026, more active fiscal policies will be continued, including boosting consumption, expanding investment, supporting innovation, and strengthening social security [58][60][62]. - In 2025, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points. The open - market Treasury trading operation was restarted in October. In 2026, the central bank will maintain liquidity and guide market interest rates [66][67][69]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Outlook for Treasury Futures Trends - In 2026, China's monetary policy will remain loose. The short - end of the Treasury yield curve may decline, and the long - end and ultra - long - end may remain horizontally volatile. The probability of a slightly bull - steep yield curve is high [70][72]. - The 10 - year Treasury yield in 2026 is expected to fluctuate between 1.5% - 2.0% [73]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Analysis and Outlook for Treasury Futures Arbitrage Opportunities - Curve strategy: When the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury yields is around 0.15% or lower, consider going long on the spread. Also, when the yield curve is likely to steepen, consider going long on 2*TS - T [76][77][79]. - Spot - futures strategy: When the implied repo rate (IRR) of the Treasury futures main contract exceeds the 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit yield, there is an opportunity for positive arbitrage. When IRR is significantly lower than the funding rate minus the bond - borrowing cost, the value of reverse arbitrage is prominent. Also, consider trading based on the relationship between the Treasury futures price and the basis [81][83]. - Inter - delivery - month strategy: There may be arbitrage opportunities in the inter - delivery - month spread near the delivery month. For example, in 2025, there were opportunities to short TL00 - TL01 when it exceeded 0.30 yuan [86]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Treasury Futures Hedging Case - In October 2025, an insurance company expected new premiums in January 2026. To avoid the risk of rising Treasury prices, it bought Treasury futures with the same amount expiring in three months. After the funds arrived, it could choose to buy Treasury bonds in the spot market and close the long - position in the futures market or take delivery at maturity [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In the first half of 2026, the Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates, and China's monetary policy may also cut interest rates. The inflation level in 2026 is expected to rise compared to 2025. Band trading is suitable for Treasury futures [90].