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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main - line driver. The strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment, especially increasing the selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds and widening the spread between long - and short - term yields. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect has intensified. In the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. The issuance of new 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds on August 22 may trigger a switch of the CTD bonds for far - month contracts under the policy of levying VAT on interest from interest - rate bonds. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the inter - period spread brought by the issuance of new bonds [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market a. Futures Prices and Volumes - T主力收盘价108.000，环比上涨0.06%，成交量63938，环比增加11704；TF主力收盘价105.450，环比上涨0.06%，成交量38506，环比减少16805；TS主力收盘价102.326，环比持平，成交量36357，环比增加5932；TL主力收盘价116.110，环比上涨0.34%，成交量62804，环比减少37112 [2] b. Futures Spreads - Multiple futures spreads showed changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread increasing by 0.05 to - 0.46, while the T12 - TL12 spread decreasing by 0.42 to - 8.11 [2] c. Futures Positions - T主力持仓量57904，环比减少11640；TF主力持仓量50434，环比减少12248；TS主力持仓量35544，环比减少7131；TL主力持仓量40766，环比减少7308. The net short positions of different contracts also had corresponding changes [2] 2. Bond Market a. CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds changed, with most showing a decline, such as 2500802.IB (6y) dropping to 98.8632, a decrease of 0.1253 [2] b. Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with different maturities changed, with the yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y increasing by 0.50bp, 1.25bp, 1.75bp, and 1.40bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] c. Short - term Interest Rates - Short - term interest rates such as silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight decreased, while the silver - pledged 14 - day rate remained unchanged [2] d. LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3. Public Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 2530 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1287 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2] 4. Industry News - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13583.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, and the securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5%. The August LPR quotation remained stable. The yields of treasury bonds strengthened on Thursday, and the treasury futures also showed an upward trend. Domestically, economic data in July showed a mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended by 90 days, and the Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish monetary policy [2] 5. Key Events to Watch - On August 21 at 21:00, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was to be released. On August 22 at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the Fed's September FOMC meeting is approaching, with high market uncertainty. The fundamentals remain largely unchanged, but the upcoming peak season may boost demand, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market is volatile. Although the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production eases supply concerns, the suspension of CATL's production continues. With the anti - involution measures in progress, lithium carbonate prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [11]. - For crude oil, supply - demand conditions are weakening, and prices are expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][14]. - For asphalt, considering factors such as开工 rate, production, demand, and cost, it is advisable to view asphalt as having a weak and volatile trend [15]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. The 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit and exit as the 09 contract approaches the delivery month [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to oscillate recently, influenced by factors like开工 rate, demand, and cost [18]. - For PVC, due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, it is expected to oscillate downward [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is fluctuating, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. - For urea, the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 20th, domestic commodity futures contracts showed mixed performance. EG, caustic soda, and methanol rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down, and soda ash, glass, etc. declined significantly. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures had different trends [6]. Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 20th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2509, SSE 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509, while funds flowed out of Shanghai silver 2510, lithium carbonate 2511, and ten - year treasury bond 2509 [7]. Specific Commodity Analyses Copper - Uncertainty surrounds the Fed's FOMC meeting. Supply may face challenges in the later third - quarter, and demand is expected to improve in the peak season. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [9]. Lithium Carbonate - After the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production, the market sentiment fluctuated, and the price hit the daily limit down. Supply may decline in August - September, and demand has some support [11]. Crude Oil - Seasonal factors, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical events affect supply - demand. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [12][14]. Asphalt - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by factors such as weather and funds. Cost is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. PP - Downstream开工 rate is low, supply may increase, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate, and the 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit [16][17]. Plastic -开工 rate is at a medium - low level, demand is weak, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate [18]. PVC - Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward [20]. Coking Coal - Supply is increasing, downstream demand is complex, and market sentiment is fluctuating. The price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. Urea - Supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender [23].

Group 1: Hot News - China Futures Association suggests continuous expansion of specific futures varieties and steady opening of the "variety pool", expanding the scope of specific varieties at a "mature one, include one" pace, and optimizing cross - border fund settlement and bonded delivery networks [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is advancing the research and development of innovative products like the Baltic Panamax Dry Bulk Freight Index Futures (BPI Index Futures) and exploring settlement price authorization cooperation with overseas futures exchanges [2] - Regarding India media's report on China lifting rare - earth export restrictions on India, the spokesperson said she was unaware of the situation and emphasized cooperation to maintain global supply - chain stability [2] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - session Performance - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, butadiene rubber, glass, soda ash, and urea [3] - Night - session performance shows the following sector percentage increases: non - metallic building materials 2.95%, precious metals 26.23%, oilseeds and oils 13.19%, non - ferrous metals 21.11%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal - coking - steel - minerals 14.71%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 11.72%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.99% [3] Group 3: Position Changes - The document presents the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering multiple sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coking - steel - minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity market: Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 4.31%, and a yearly increase of 11.20%; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also have different performance data [5] - Fixed - income market: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures have different daily, monthly, and yearly performance data [5] - Commodity market: CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., show various price changes [5] - Other assets: US Dollar Index and CBOE Volatility Index have their respective performance data [5]

Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese and Indian foreign ministers resulted in 10 key agreements aimed at enhancing bilateral relations and cooperation [3][4][5] - Both sides emphasized the importance of strategic leadership from their respective leaders for the development of China-India relations [3] - China welcomed Indian Prime Minister Modi's participation in the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, while India expressed support for China's presidency of the organization [3][4] Group 2 - The two countries agreed to support each other's diplomatic activities, including the hosting of the BRICS summits in 2026 and 2027 [3][4] - There is a mutual agreement to explore the resumption of various government-to-government dialogue mechanisms to strengthen cooperation and manage differences [3][4] - Both nations plan to facilitate direct flights and visa conveniences for travelers engaged in tourism, business, and media activities [4][5] Group 3 - The agreement includes provisions for the continued pilgrimage of Indian devotees to sacred sites in Tibet, expanding the scale of such activities [4][5] - Specific measures will be taken to facilitate trade and investment flows between the two countries [5] - Both sides committed to maintaining peace and stability in border areas through friendly consultations [5] Group 4 - The two countries agreed to promote multilateralism and enhance communication on major international and regional issues, defending the interests of developing countries [5]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond futures, once favored in the bond market, are experiencing a decline in popularity as the equity market continues to perform strongly, leading to a bearish sentiment in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the 30-year government bond futures fell over 1%, marking a new low since early April this year. Other maturities, including 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year government bond futures, also saw varying degrees of decline [2][4]. - The 30-year government bond futures closed down 1.33%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year futures fell by 0.29%, 0.21%, and 0.04%, respectively [4]. - The yields on major interbank government bonds have risen sharply, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 4.35 basis points to 2.0375%, and the 10-year bond yield rising by 3 basis points to 1.775% [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Dynamics - The bond market is currently under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market, which is suppressing bond market sentiment. Additionally, institutional redemptions are contributing to short-term risks in the bond market [2][4]. - The prevailing sentiment in the bond market is one of weakness, as it has shown a muted response to positive economic data while being more sensitive to negative influences from the equity and commodity markets [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to research from Everbright Securities, the banking system currently has ample liquidity, and despite upcoming tax periods and month-end factors, the average DR007 is expected to be the lowest of the year in late August, alleviating concerns over significant increases in bond yields [6]. - The bond market may either decouple from the equity market or continue to react to its movements. The likelihood of bond yields declining in the short term is greater than the chance of them rising [6]. Group 4: Redemption Risks - The ongoing adjustments in the bond market could trigger a wave of redemptions from bond funds, further increasing volatility. The research team at Huachuang Fixed Income suggests that while there may be minor redemption pressures, the overall risk remains manageable as long as yields stay below 1.9% [8]. - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures to support the liquidity of government bonds in the secondary market, which could help stabilize the market amid these adjustments [8][9].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile and bullish [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Weakening [4] - Gold: High-level volatile [4] - Silver: High-level volatile [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Volatile and bullish [6] - Soybean meal: Bullish and volatile [8] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish and volatile [8] - Soybean No. 2: Bullish and volatile [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Livestock: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Views - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily falsified, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market correction due to expectation deviations. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. The coking coal and coke market is supported by supply-side factors, and it is recommended to buy on dips after corrections. The steel market is supported by macro and policy factors in the short term, and it is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels. The glass market is affected by market sentiment and inventory digestion, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term. The stock index market is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The bond market is affected by interest rate changes, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position. The precious metal market is affected by factors such as interest rate policies and geopolitical conflicts, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate. The log market is affected by seasonal factors and supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. The edible oil market is supported by factors such as export demand and policy, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish. The meal market is affected by factors such as planting area and weather, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile. The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and price trends, and the price is expected to be volatile. The soft commodity market is affected by factors such as weather and inventory, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polyester market is affected by factors such as oil prices and supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile [2][4][6][8][10][11]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments decreased slightly month-on-month but were stronger year-on-year. Domestic arrivals decreased month-on-month, and port inventories increased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and steel mills had limited motivation to cut production actively. There are expectations of production cuts in the northern region in late August, and the short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, with the market expected to be volatile at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure was weak, and coking coal prices adjusted slightly. The recovery of coal mines was slow, and coal inventories reached the lowest level since March 2024. Downstream enterprises maintained high operating rates, and coal prices were supported in the short term. To break through the previous high, continuous supply reduction is needed [2]. - Rebar: There were news of production restrictions for independent steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan, leading to expectations of supply reduction. Building material demand decreased month-on-month, and external demand was overdrawn in advance. Real estate investment continued to decline, and overall demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance. The profits of the five major steel products were acceptable, and production increased slightly while apparent demand decreased. Steel mill inventories increased rapidly, and social inventories increased. During the military parade in mid-August, there were expectations of supply contraction, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market was not significant. There are still expectations of stable growth in the steel industry in the short term, and it is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment cooled, and the midstream and downstream were in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with significantly weakened restocking demand. There were no changes in production lines, and the operating rate remained stable. Weekly production remained unchanged, and factory inventories continued to increase. It is unlikely for glass factories to stop production during the military parade, and the market is affected by many factors. The midstream and downstream inventories are low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - Soda ash: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth." After the short-term emotion is released and the market adjusts again, attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.70%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 Index rose 2.16%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.02%. Funds flowed into the securities and power equipment sectors and out of the banking and soft drink equipment sectors. The article in Qiushi Magazine emphasized promoting the healthy and high-quality development of the private economy. In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year. From January to July, national fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12%. The market's bullish sentiment increased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rose 1bp, FR007 rose 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 238 billion yuan on August 15. The market interest rate rebounded, and the bond market declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: In a high-interest-rate environment and the context of globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. Trump's bill may exacerbate the US debt problem, highlighting the de-fiat currency attribute of gold. In the global high-interest-rate environment, the substitution effect of gold for bonds weakens, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds decreases. Geopolitical risks have weakened marginally, but market risk aversion still exists. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that the Fed's interest rate policy will be more cautious this year, and tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. The latest US data shows that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, and inflation data has slowed down. In the short term, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [4][6]. - Silver: The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, affected by factors similar to those of gold [6]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price was mainly consolidating. The latest quoted prices for coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased, weakening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand was in the off-season, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume at ports remained flat week-on-week. Demand was in the seasonal off-season, but as the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approached, the willingness of processing plants to stock up increased. The shipment volume from New Zealand to China in July increased by 5% month-on-month, and the expected arrivals in August were low. The expected arrivals last week decreased by 60% week-on-week, and supply pressure was not significant. Port inventories decreased, and spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The cost side provided stronger support, and the price is expected to be volatile [6]. Edible Oils and Meals - Edible oils: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued to increase production and inventory, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. The export volume from August 1 to 15 increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month-on-month, and the demand was strong. Indonesia's biodiesel policy provided long-term support for prices. In China, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in August remained high, and the oil mill operating rate was high. Although the export of domestic soybean oil to India increased, the inventory accumulation trend of oil mills could not be stopped. Palm oil inventories may increase, rapeseed oil inventories continued to decrease, and the demand is expected to pick up with the approaching of the double festivals. The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce boosted rapeseed oil prices. Supported by factors such as soybean raw material costs, external palm oil prices, and demand recovery, edible oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [6]. - Meals: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area of US soybeans. Although the yield per unit increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there are concerns about the hot and dry weather in some areas in the Midwest, which may affect yields. The anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed imports increased import costs, and the market was worried about supply reduction. However, Brazil had a bumper soybean harvest, and the production outlook for US soybeans was strong. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly declined, but it is difficult to change the pattern before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, and the oil mill operating rate is generally high. Soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and downstream purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [8]. Agricultural Products - Livestock: On the supply side, the average trading weight of pigs across the country continued to decline. Due to factors such as high temperatures and the positive price difference between fat and standard pigs, slaughterhouses increased the purchase of low-priced standard pigs, and the overall purchase weight decreased. It is expected that the trading weight in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the settlement price of pigs at key slaughterhouses last week showed a downward trend. Affected by factors such as the accelerated slaughter rhythm of farmers and high temperatures affecting terminal consumption, slaughterhouses pressured prices. The average operating rate of key slaughterhouses increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs fluctuated. In the context of increasing supply and restricted consumption demand, the weekly average price of pigs is expected to remain volatile [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The impact of weather on the main natural rubber production areas has weakened, but geopolitical conflicts still slightly disrupt rubber tapping. In the Yunnan production area, the profit from rubber tapping increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials supported high purchase prices. In the Hainan production area, the weather was good, but the glue output was lower than expected. Driven by the futures market, local processing plants were more active in purchasing, and raw material purchase prices increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber continued to rise, but profits continued to narrow, and geopolitical conflicts restricted rubber tapping progress in some areas. In the Vietnamese production area, the weather was good, and raw material prices also rose. The utilization rate of the sample semi-steel tire enterprises in China decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of the sample all-steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The inventory at Qingdao Port decreased, and the market is still in a situation of oversupply, but the gap has narrowed. As the geopolitical situation is expected to ease and rainfall increases in the production areas, the supply of raw materials is expected to be tight, driving up rubber prices. Domestic spot inventories are expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Polyester - PX: The expectation of easing the Russia-Ukraine situation continued to put pressure on oil prices, and oil prices declined. The PTA load fluctuated, and the polyester load rebounded. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX were slightly weaker but still tight, and the PXN spread was relatively strong. PX prices fluctuated with oil prices [10]. - PTA: Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and although the PXN spread was strong, cost support was average. PTA supply gradually recovered, and the load of downstream polyester factories began to rebound, improving the supply and demand situation. In the short term, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. - MEG: Port inventories may have continued to increase slightly last week. Terminal demand was sluggish, domestic production gradually recovered, and imports fluctuated, increasing supply pressure. In the medium term, MEG supply and demand are expected to be in a balanced state. In the short term, cost fluctuations are large, and low inventories support the futures price. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - PR: The supply of polyester bottle chips was stable, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking at low prices. The peak season performance was poor, and purchases were cautious. The market is expected to be weak with cost fluctuations [11]. - PF: The decline in oil prices dragged down polyester costs, and there was no significant positive support for the fundamentals of short fibers. Prices are expected to decline with raw materials [11].

Hot News - In July, CPI showed positive changes, with the month-on-month change turning from decline to increase, and the year-on-year increase of core CPI expanding continuously [1] - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a stable and progressive development of the national economy [1] - In August, the central bank will continue to inject medium-term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchase, and may implement another RRR cut and interest rate cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter [1] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain adequate liquidity, and ensure that the growth of social financing scale and money supply matches the economic growth and price level targets [2] - Trump plans to determine the tariffs on steel and chips in the next one or two weeks, with a possible tax rate of 200% or 300% [2] Key Focus - The sectors to focus on are coking coal, palm oil, methanol, soda ash, and glass [3] Night Session Performance - The night session performance shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.89%, the precious metals sector rose 26.74%, the oilseeds sector rose 12.96%, the non-ferrous metals sector rose 21.30%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.47%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 14.70%, the energy sector rose 3.35%, the chemical sector rose 11.55%, the grain sector rose 1.17%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.87% [3] Sector Positions - The data shows the changes in the positions of various commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% daily, 3.46% monthly, and 10.29% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.29% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and rose 9.66% annually; the Hang Seng Index fell 0.98% daily, rose 2.01% monthly, and rose 25.97% annually [5] - In the fixed-income market, the 10-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.18% monthly, and 0.58% annually; the 5-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% daily, 0.06% monthly, and 0.83% annually [5] - In the commodity market, WTI crude oil fell 1.24% daily, 8.74% monthly, and 12.17% annually; London spot gold rose 0.01% daily, 1.39% monthly, and 27.10% annually [5] - Other assets include the US dollar index, which fell 0.36% daily, 2.20% monthly, and 9.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index rose 1.75% daily, fell 9.75% monthly, and fell 13.03% annually [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the trading activity of 30-year Treasury futures, which were once highly favored in the bond market, due to a shift in investor sentiment towards equities and commodities [2][5][8] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, with the stock and commodity markets gaining strength while the bond market remains under pressure, leading to a reallocation of funds away from long-term bonds [3][4][5] - The overall bond market is experiencing a weak performance, particularly in long-term bonds, with the yield curve steepening and short-term yields outperforming long-term yields [4][7] Group 2 - The trading volume and open interest in long-term Treasury futures have been rising since the beginning of 2023, but the recent market dynamics have led to a decrease in their attractiveness as investors shift focus to commodities [5][6] - Institutional investors, including banks and insurance companies, are facing challenges in the current market environment, leading to a cautious approach towards increasing their positions in the bond market [7][8] - Future recovery in bond market sentiment is expected to take time, with potential signals being a decrease in risk appetite and an increase in interest rate cut expectations [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/8/12 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Futures从业资格号: F30825507 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On August 12, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively, with the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturities rising by about 0.10 - 0.60bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y rising by about 1bp to 1.72% and 1.97% respectively. Treasury bond futures also weakened collectively, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL falling by 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.04%, and 0.31% respectively. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly to around 1.47% [2]. - Domestically, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand has emerged. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of core CPI continued to rise, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The PMIs of the manufacturing and non - manufacturing sectors declined comprehensively in July, with the marginal decline of supply and demand. The composite PMI declined slightly but remained above the boom - bust line, indicating that overall production and business activities remained stable. In terms of trade, the export growth rate continued to rise in July, showing the resilience of foreign trade [2]. - Overseas, the suspension period of Sino - US tariffs was extended by another 90 days. The US labor market showed signs of weakness. The non - farm payrolls in July were lower than expected, and the previous value was significantly revised down. The non - farm employment numbers from May to June were revised down by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2]. - In terms of strategy, the equity market has been strong recently, with the stock index approaching the high since last October, triggering concentrated selling of bonds by trading accounts. The selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds is significant, and the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds has continued to widen, highlighting a bear - steepening curve. Currently, the bond market is still anchored to equity fluctuations. Under the unchanged dominance of risk preference, the linkage between stock and bond fluctuations may further strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Category Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: On August 12, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.420 (-0.04%), 105.715 (0%), 102.338 (-0.02%), and 118.140 (-0.31%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 76,952 (+4,763), 48,505 (+1,665), 34,415 (+25), and 123,182 (+7,595) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 were -0.40 (+0.03), -0.11 (-0.01), 0.01 (-0.04), and 0.04 (+0.00) respectively. Other spreads such as T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, etc. also changed [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 10,169, 3,491, 1,557, and 5,060 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL changed by +2,430, -771, -1,333, and +2,066 respectively [2]. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc. declined on August 12 [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds increased by 0.50bp, 1.50bp, 3.50bp, 2.95bp, and 2.65bp respectively [2]. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The rates of silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day were 1.4423% (+14.23bp), 1.4800% (+3.00bp), and 1.4860% (-1.40bp) respectively. The Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates were 1.3150% (0.00bp), 1.4330% (+0.10bp), and 1.4560% (+0.10bp) respectively [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. Open Market Operations - On August 12, the issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 114.6 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 160.7 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion yuan [2]. Policy News - The nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities". Loans that meet certain conditions can enjoy the interest - subsidy policy. The interest - subsidy period does not exceed 1 year, with an annual subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point. The central and provincial finances will bear 90% and 10% of the subsidy funds respectively [2]. Key Data to Watch - August 12, 20:30, US July unadjusted CPI annual rate; August 14, 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ended August 9 (in ten thousand people) [3]