Stock Market - The A-share market continued to rise with a volume increase, with Wind All A up by 1.59% and a trading volume of 2.83 trillion yuan [3][9] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains, influenced by geopolitical factors related to Venezuela, while non-bank financials also performed well [3][9] - There was a significant net subscription of 110 billion yuan in broad-based ETFs in December, with nearly 102 billion yuan allocated to A500 ETF, which has a high correlation with the CSI 300 index [3][10] - The CSI 1000 index's revenue growth for Q3 was approximately 2.6% year-on-year, providing strong support for its current valuation [3][10] - The spring market rally may be less intense than in previous years due to the lack of favorable conditions such as liquidity easing and sustained improvement in inflation expectations [3][10] Bond Market - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year government bond contracts saw declines of 0.31%, 0.13%, 0.11%, and 0.05% respectively [4][11] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 162 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [4][11] - The money market remains reasonably ample, which is the main support for the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious interest rate cuts pose constraints [4][11][5] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term, with upward pressure requiring significant inflation recovery and downward pressure needing guidance from interest rate cuts [5][11] Precious Metals - London spot precious metals experienced a slight increase, with silver, platinum, and palladium showing active performance [6][12] - The gold-silver ratio fell to 54.4, and the platinum-palladium price spread rose to approximately 620 USD per ounce [6][12] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path continue, with some officials suggesting that rates may need to be cut further this year [6][12] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S.-Iran conflicts, are expected to keep gold prices strong, while silver, platinum, and palladium are likely to maintain upward momentum due to solid fundamentals and market sentiment [6][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Extreme conservative House members threaten to block Trump's tax - cut bill, and the White House warns that killing the bill would be an "ultimate betrayal". The EU says the US negotiation proposal is unrealistic and has a new plan. The US states that the Treasury Secretary and the Japanese Finance Minister did not discuss exchange - rate levels at the G7 meeting. Shanghai releases a special action plan to boost consumption. The domestic market rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The suppression of bonds by the equity market is limited. Treasury bond futures show strong buying support near the technical support level in the afternoon. The market is looking for cost - effectiveness, and the allocation funds favor long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited under the background that the logic of loose liquidity remains and the signal of fundamental recovery needs to be verified. However, the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and the trend is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.43%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.46%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.13%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.18% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.27%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. Futures Data - On May 21, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures contracts are provided in a table [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Oscillatory operation" [2][3] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Short - term optimistic" [3] Core Viewpoints Stock Index - The Fed paused rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating increased "uncertainty". Powell ignored Trump, saying the economy is still good and uncertainty is extremely high, and refused to act preemptively due to tariffs. The Bank of Japan unanimously agreed to "stand pat", keeping the interest rate at 0.5%. China's Foreign Ministry responded to the China - US high - level economic and trade talks. China's financial sector introduced a package of policies to stabilize the market and expectations. A major reform plan for the public fund industry was implemented, linking the interests of investors, tying fund managers' compensation to returns, and reducing fees. With multiple positive factors, attention should be paid to the stock index trend. If there is a downward trend to fill the gap, it may fill the gap before rebounding; if the overall situation is stable and favorable, the stock index may oscillate strongly [1] Treasury Bond - Currently, as the policy rate drives down the short - term money market interest rate center, the certainty of the short - to medium - term part of the curve is relatively high. After the curve steepens again, it in turn provides "protection" for the long - term end. The bond market as a whole may still be in a situation with a relatively high probability of success but limited odds. Before the fundamental situation shows a significant improvement, there is no need to be overly cautious [2] Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.51%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.66%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.01%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 0.12% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.19%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.62%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% [6] Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market oscillates strongly [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract oscillates strongly [7] Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bond - Short - term optimistic [3] Data Table | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 300 continuous main contract | 3785.00 | 0.51 | 56105 | 141994 | | 2025/05/07 | SSE 50 continuous main contract | 2646.40 | 0.66 | 29460 | 46351 | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 500 continuous main contract | 5620.20 | 0.01 | 54572 | 100287 | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 1000 continuous main contract | 5955.20 | 0.12 | 158085 | 174521 | | 2025/05/07 | 10 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 108.85 | - 0.19 | 85388 | 180727 | | 2025/05/07 | 5 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 106.00 | - 0.08 | 62281 | 151057 | | 2025/05/07 | 30 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 120.14 | - 0.62 | 115667 | 93433 | | 2025/05/07 | 2 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 102.31 | - 0.01 | 40388 | 89974 | [9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Short - term bullish on Treasury bonds [3] - The stock index is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Group 2: Core Views Stock Index - The EU plans to expand counter - measures; if negotiations fail, it will impose tariffs on $100 billion worth of US goods. Meetings between US and Canadian leaders have different stances. High - level China - US economic and trade talks and the 10th China - France High - level Economic and Financial Dialogue will be held. The spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce answered questions about the China - US economic and trade talks. Relevant departments will introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations". With multiple positive factors, the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Treasury Bonds - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is not significant. The core factor restricting the decline of yields is the capital price. Although the overall capital situation is balanced, the central bank's actions in April and after the holiday show the restraint of the capital market. The "relatively high" capital interest rate is the biggest obstacle to the decline of current yields [2] Group 3: Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.13%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.67%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.99%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.39% [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.11%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [5] Treasury Bonds - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight upward trend [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bonds - Short - term bullish [3] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3766.20 | 1.13 | 47831 | 138953 | | 2025/05/06 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2629.60 | 0.67 | 25377 | 44285 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5622.00 | 1.99 | 43200 | 97319 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5953.20 | 2.39 | 107389 | 160100 | | 2025/05/06 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.01 | 49555 | 189565 | | 2025/05/06 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.06 | - 0.04 | 46541 | 155595 | | 2025/05/06 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.97 | 0.11 | 61695 | 102169 | | 2025/05/06 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.31 | - 0.06 | 28361 | 93460 | [9]