Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve implemented a "dovish pause" during the January FOMC meeting, signaling a shift in the future rate cut path, which will now depend more on inflation data rather than solely on labor market weakness [1][5] Economic Outlook - FOMC members showed greater consensus on the economic outlook, with Powell noting stronger economic performance compared to December, supported by resilient consumer spending, expanding business investment, fiscal support expectations, favorable financial conditions, and ongoing AI-related capital expenditures [5] - The only weak area identified was the housing market [5] Rate Cut Logic - The logic for future rate cuts has fundamentally changed, with a shift towards being "inflation-based" rather than "employment-based" as the risk of job losses diminishes [5][6] - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to maintain patience until clearer signs of inflation deceleration appear, likely later in the year, before considering rate cuts [5][6] Market Strategy - Morgan Stanley's rate strategists recommend maintaining a neutral position on U.S. Treasury durations and curves, while continuing to favor 2-year UST SOFR swap spreads [8][9] - In the foreign exchange market, the firm predicts a weaker dollar, but notes that the Fed's policy is unlikely to be the main driver of dollar depreciation, with more focus shifting to international monetary policies and related intervention risks [9] MBS Strategy - For agency MBS, Morgan Stanley maintains a neutral stance, citing low volatility as favorable but noting that the option-adjusted spread (OAS) is near its narrowest levels in recent years, with ongoing uncertainty in housing policy [9]

对于投资者而言，本次会议的关键在于前瞻指引。根据摩根士丹利的预测，美联储将在1月会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.50%-3.75%不变。这并不是紧缩周期的回归，而是基于近期数据的战术性调整。 声明措辞的微妙变化： 大摩预计FOMC声明将上调对经济增长的评估，从"温和"改为"稳健" 。 更重要的是，预计美联储将 删除 关于"就业下行风险增加"的表述——既然选择暂停降息，逻辑上意味着他们对劳动力市场的担忧有所缓解。 保留宽松倾向 ： 关键在于前瞻指引。大摩预计声明将保留"考虑对目标区间进行进一步调整的范围和时机"的表述。 投票情况 ： 预计将会出现反对票。大摩预测理事Miran将投出反对票，主张降息50个基点。 摩根士丹利预计美联储将进行"鸽派暂停"，关键在于声明保留"考虑额外调整"而非"任何调整"的措辞，以暗示宽松倾向仍在。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 摩根士丹利指出， 下周即将召开的1月FOMC会议毫无悬念将维持利率不变，但关键在于定调 。 据追风交易台，1月23日，大摩在发布的最新报告中预计美联储将通过一次"鸽派暂停"来安抚市场，即 虽然因近期劳动力市场企稳而暂停降 息，但仍保留后续宽松的倾向。 鲍 威 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the upcoming January FOMC meeting will maintain interest rates unchanged, focusing on the tone of the statement [1][2] Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, indicating a tactical adjustment rather than a return to a tightening cycle [2] - The statement is likely to upgrade the economic growth assessment from "moderate" to "robust" and remove references to "increased risks to employment," suggesting reduced concerns about the labor market [2][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts a dissenting vote from a board member advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Market Strategy and Liquidity - Despite the Fed's pause on rate cuts, the short-term financing market remains loose, with repo rates normalizing below the interest on reserve balances (IORB), indicating an "excessively ample" cash situation [5] - The Fed is expected to maintain reserve levels by purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills monthly, with projections for the SOMA account holdings to exceed $600 billion by the end of 2026 [6] Group 3: Currency Outlook - Morgan Stanley has revised its outlook on the foreign exchange market, now projecting a stronger U.S. economy with a GDP growth forecast of 2.4% for 2026, delaying the anticipated rate cuts [8] - Despite this, the firm maintains a moderately bearish view on the dollar due to synchronized global growth and undervaluation of the Japanese yen, which is expected to converge [9] Group 4: Asset Class Focus - In the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) sector, the significant $200 billion purchase plan by government-sponsored enterprises has led to a narrowing of MBS spreads, prompting a neutral stance from Morgan Stanley [11] - The municipal bond market shows solid fundamentals but is considered expensive, with low yield ratios compared to corporate bonds, raising concerns about sustainability if the Fed signals ambiguity rather than a clear dovish stance [11]