2，【白银崛起的三重驱动】 白银今年以来累计涨幅113%，远超黄金35%的表现，主要得益于： 1. 光伏、人工智能数据中心、电动车等领域工业需求持续爆发； 2. 全球矿山供给增长停滞，可供开采年限已降至不足20年； 3. 美国政府将白银正式列入"关键矿产"清单，战略属性显著提升。 3，【地缘风险持续发酵】 俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫表示，若不根除乌克兰危机根源，问题无法平稳解决，并警告已做好应对欧洲派兵或资产没收等敌对行为的准备。美国总统特朗普则公 开批评泽连斯基"必须现实一点"，并呼吁乌克兰尽快举行大选、结束战争。地缘不确定性继续为贵金属提供潜在支撑。 行情回顾： 白银周三（12.10）最高触及61.94美元/盎司，最低触及60.08元/盎司。收盘于61.82美元/盎司。周四（12.11）开于61.8美元/盎司，截至目前最高上探至62.88 元/盎司，最低试探至61.67，现报61.75元/盎司附近. 基本面分析： 1，【鲍威尔发布会核心观点：政策已处于良好位置，下一步不太可能加息】 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，当前利率水平已足以应对多种经济情景，下一步行动"极不可能"是加息，加息也不在委员们的基线情景之中 ...

基本面： 周四（12月11日）亚盘时段，现货黄金回吐隔夜部分涨幅继续受限于短期区间内徘徊，目前暂交投于4213美元附近。周三（12月10日）现货黄金小幅收涨， 盘中最低触及4182美元附近后转折上攻，在美元与美债收益率双双走弱的背景下，现货黄金快速收复早盘失地，最高触及4238.59美元/盎司，创近三个交易 日新高，最终收报4228.47美元/盎司，单日涨幅约0.5%。现货白银表现更为亮眼，一举突破并站稳61美元整数关口，最高触及61.92美元/盎司，刷新历史纪 录，今年以来累计涨幅高达113%。 美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）当地时间周三（12月10日）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.50%–3.75%，符合市场普遍预期。然而， 决议公布后，美元指数应声下跌，最低触及98.59，创近一个半月新低，收盘报98.65，跌幅约0.6%，录得近三个月最大单日跌幅；10年期美债收益率同步下 行0.88个百分点至4.192%，同样创下近一个半月最大单日降幅。美联储本次决议投票结果为10票赞成、3票反对，出现近年来罕见的分裂局面。芝加哥联储 主席古尔斯比、堪萨斯城联储主席施密德主张维持利率不变，而理事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision point as it approaches the December meeting, balancing between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation nearing 3% [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Fed Chair Powell is caught between two factions: the "preemptive" camp advocating for a rate cut and the "cautious" camp insisting on no further cuts [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have surged from 40% to 80%, putting Powell in a precarious position where any decision could lead to a split within the FOMC [2] - Powell is weighing two options: a "hawkish cut" of 25 basis points in December with a commitment to future restraint, or a "dovish pause" delaying decisions until January [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic data suggests a "stagflation" scenario, with a three-month average job growth falling below 100,000 without significant layoffs, and core inflation remaining steady at 0.3% month-on-month [3] - Concerns arise from the potential for prolonged economic stagnation if rates are cut too slowly or the risk of reigniting inflation if cut too quickly [4] Group 3: Leadership Pressure - The December vote represents not only a decision on economic direction but also a test of Powell's leadership, as he must navigate the delicate balance of opinions within the Fed [4] - Experts indicate that the outcome of the December 19 meeting will be crucial, with global risk assets already reacting to the uncertainty [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a challenging decision regarding potential interest rate cuts amid conflicting economic signals, with some key allies indicating support for a preemptive easing approach [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Signals and Market Reactions - New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly have expressed concerns about labor market risks, suggesting support for a rate cut in December [1]. - Following Williams' comments, the market's implied probability of a December rate cut surged from 40% to approximately 70%, indicating a shift towards a dovish stance among investors [2]. - Current market expectations for a rate cut have further increased to around 80% [2]. Group 2: Internal Divisions within the Fed - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are reportedly at an unprecedented level during Powell's tenure, driven by mixed economic signals such as stagnant job growth and persistent inflation near 3% [7]. - Hawkish officials express concerns that rapid rate cuts could undermine necessary policy restrictions, especially as inflationary pressures spread from goods to domestic services [7]. - Notably, four voting Fed officials have voiced worries about further rate cuts, emphasizing the need for caution in the current economic climate [7]. Group 3: Strategies for Decision-Making - Powell is weighing two strategies: "hawkish rate cut" which involves cutting rates in December while setting higher thresholds for future cuts, and "dovish pause" which entails maintaining current rates and reassessing in January [5]. - The "hawkish rate cut" strategy aims to meet market expectations while managing internal dissent, similar to Powell's approach in late 2019 [5]. - The "dovish pause" could prolong existing divisions but may provide more comprehensive data for decision-making [5]. Group 4: Leadership Challenges for Powell - The upcoming decision is not only a test of economic data but also a critical evaluation of Powell's leadership and his ability to unify a divided committee [9]. - Historically, the Fed has not seen more than three dissenting votes on rate decisions since 1992, highlighting the importance of consensus [9]. - The fragile support for a December rate cut is evident, as only a slight majority favored cuts in previous meetings [9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have recently expressed dovish signals, significantly increasing the market's expectations for a rate cut in December, with the probability rising to 80% [1][2] - The S&P 500 index rose nearly 1.6%, marking its largest gain in six weeks, while the Nasdaq increased by 2.7%, achieving its best single-day performance since May [1] - However, Bank of America warns of serious internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the December decision, indicating that the dovish voices do not represent a consensus [1][2] Group 2 - The September employment data has intensified the debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with conflicting indicators leading to differing opinions among members [2] - The unemployment rate is approaching 4.5%, suggesting a loosening labor market, while job growth, income increases, and labor participation rates remain strong [2] - Despite dovish signals from Williams and Waller, other FOMC members, including Barr and Goolsbee, express caution regarding inflation risks and oppose a December rate cut [2] Group 3 - Bank of America suggests that a "dovish pause" may be a more prudent choice for Powell than pushing for a "hawkish cut," allowing for maximum flexibility for future actions [3][4] - The upcoming data releases between the December and January meetings, including three employment reports and two CPI reports, could provide critical insights for the Fed's decision-making [4] - A forced "hawkish cut" could backfire, as the market may not trust the commitment to a future pause, leading to potential opposition from regional Fed presidents [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to pause its year-long interest rate cut cycle to assess the effectiveness of the economic recovery, with most economists predicting that the interest rate will remain unchanged this week [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has indicated that interest rates have entered a neutral zone, reducing the urgency for further cuts [1] - Future rate adjustments may follow a quarterly pace rather than being made at every policy meeting [1] - There was a divergence of opinions during the last monetary policy meeting, highlighting uncertainty in the current economic recovery momentum [1] Group 2 - Given the still unstable momentum of economic recovery, further rate cuts within the year remain a possibility [1]