Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hunt, is expected to outline a £40 billion tax increase and spending cut plan in the upcoming budget, which could double the country's fiscal space [1] Group 1: Tax and Spending Plans - The proposed plan includes potential increases in income tax, which could secure revenue but may erode public support for the government and impact bond market stability [1] - Experts suggest that without raising income tax, the effectiveness of the budget plan may be limited in addressing inflation in the short term [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The budget plan is viewed as a measure that could potentially counter inflation in the short run, according to UK central bank policymakers [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor, Michelle Bowman, emphasizes that many of her forecasts depend on the housing sector showing more signs of disinflation [1] Group 1 - The outlook for inflation is closely tied to developments in the housing market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in overseas risk-free interest rates, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, which reached a new high [1][3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq index rose by 2.1% during the week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.02% [1][3] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with expectations that it may last over 30 days, impacting various sectors and government operations [54][55] Group 2 - In the developed markets, stock indices showed mixed results, with the French CAC40 rising by 3.2% and the Nikkei 225 declining by 1.1% [3] - Emerging market indices mostly rose, with the South Korean Composite Index increasing by 3.8% and the Brazilian IBOVESPA rising by 1.9% [3] - The Hang Seng Index and its sub-indices, including the Hang Seng Tech Index, experienced declines of 8.0% and 4.0%, respectively [13] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yields for developed countries fell, with the French 10-year yield down by 11.8 basis points to 3.36% and the German yield down by 13.0 basis points to 2.62% [17] - Emerging market 10-year yields showed mixed results, with Turkey's yield rising by 76 basis points to 29.8% while South Africa's yield fell by 11.0 basis points to 9.0% [21] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.3% to 98.56, while several other currencies appreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound [25] - The offshore Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.13 against the dollar, indicating a stable exchange rate [30] Group 5 - Commodity prices mostly declined, with WTI crude oil down by 2.3% to $57.5 per barrel, while COMEX gold surged by 6.2% to $4,234.9 per ounce [35][41] - Precious metals saw an overall increase, with COMEX silver rising by 6.3% to $50.4 per ounce [41] Group 6 - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to exacerbate oil price volatility and disrupt global inflation control efforts [64] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of unexpected slowdown, raising concerns about employment and consumer spending [64] - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more hawkish stance may impact future interest rate cuts if inflation remains resilient [64]

Economic Indicators - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1.85 basis points to 3.564%[4] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.12 basis points to 3.699%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 2.90 basis points to 4.123%[4] Market Performance - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1932.00, up by 1.63%[5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22788.36, down by 0.67%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46602.98, down by 0.20%[5] - The S&P 500 closed at 6714.59, down by 0.38%[5] Currency and Commodities - The price of ICE Brent crude oil was $65.73, up by 0.40%[5] - The spot price of London gold was $3984.34, up by 0.64%[5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.12, down by 0.03%[5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious stance despite stabilizing inflation, emphasizing the need for flexibility in monetary policy to address economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - ECB Governing Council member Escrivá highlights the necessity for the bank to be ready to act in any direction regarding monetary policy [1] - The ECB has implemented eight interest rate cuts within a year, indicating a reduced likelihood of further cuts in the short term [1] - Current inflation levels are aligned with the ECB's 2% policy target, suggesting that anti-inflation measures have been successful [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The visibility of the Eurozone's economic outlook has improved recently, with a trade agreement between Brussels and Washington cited as a contributing factor [1] - Escrivá did not provide specific details on the trade agreement or its potential impacts on the economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its current interest rates and is adopting a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, emphasizing that the process of combating inflation has ended, but the economic outlook remains uncertain [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the discussions regarding economic forecasts and risks were agreed upon by the governing council, highlighting a consensus on the current economic stance [1] - The ECB is prepared to adjust its tools as necessary and will not commit to a specific interest rate path in advance, indicating flexibility in its monetary policy approach [1] Group 2 - The EUR/USD currency pair shows a clear bullish pattern, with the current price of 1.1747 remaining above all key moving averages, suggesting a short-term upward trend [2] - The MACD indicator supports this bullish sentiment, with positive values indicating mild momentum expansion and no signs of divergence, suggesting that the recent 0.13% pullback is a normal adjustment rather than a trend reversal [2] - Trading volume has not significantly increased, but the price holding above the 1.17 level reinforces the bullish control in the market [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its interest rates during the upcoming decision on September 11, aligning with long-standing views and current market expectations [1][2] - Economic data since the July meeting has shown mixed results, with August PMI slightly better than expected and a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2, although this may be revised down [1][2] - There are signs of anti-inflation since June, including the appreciation of the euro and higher-than-expected tariffs from the US on the EU, but the ECB's inflation forecasts are not expected to be downgraded [2] Group 2 - ECB President Lagarde emphasized that the current state is stable, indicating no intention for further rate cuts, which supports the view that data is insufficient to change policy in September [2] - The ECB's inflation target of 2% is likely to be missed in the coming year, with projections suggesting it may only be reached by 2027 [2] - Lagarde may be questioned about France's situation and the potential use of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), but it is anticipated she will avoid the topic, stating it is too early for such discussions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's Finance Minister Simsek asserts that the anti-inflation process is clearly ongoing, with expectations for inflation to drop to single digits within two years [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Expectations** - Simsek anticipates that the inflation rate will remain within the central bank's year-end forecast range of 19%-29%, with a projection of falling below 20% next year and reaching single digits by 2027 [1] - **Economic Conditions** - The necessary conditions for inflation cooling are fundamentally in place, and the process is progressing along the expected path [1] - **Long-term Stability** - The focus is on ensuring that the improvement in inflation is both durable and stable [1]

Group 1 - The central bank of Turkey indicates that recent data shows a strengthening of anti-inflationary effects from demand conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide explicit industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as "anti - involution", supply - demand dynamics, and external trade risks. Different commodities show various trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [12][39][47]. - Some commodities are expected to follow the overall strength of the commodity market driven by "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization, while others are restricted by their own supply - demand fundamentals [12][60]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Price rose on the 21st. A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China plans to shut down for maintenance tomorrow. It is expected to be in a state of tight supply - demand. Suggested to go long on PX unilaterally and roll - over long on the spread. Keep an eye on the long PX and short EB/EG positions [6][12]. - **PTA**: In a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, it is a unilateral sideways market. The processing fee is hard to improve. The supply is loose, and it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern [12]. - **MEG**: The spread is weak, and it unilaterally follows the overall strength of the commodity market. The supply is relatively loose, and the upward space of the unilateral price is limited due to weak polyester demand [13][14]. Rubber - The price is oscillating strongly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Influenced by macro - positives, cost, and产区 weather, the bullish sentiment is strong [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policies, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals. In the medium - term, there is pressure on the fundamentals [19][21]. Asphalt - It is oscillating repeatedly. The production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly [22][37]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. Although the inventory was low before, it is gradually moving towards inventory build - up [38][39]. PP - The spot price rose slightly, and the trading was light. The futures price increase boosted the market sentiment, and the cost support strengthened, but the downstream procurement was cautious [43][44]. Caustic Soda - It is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increasing power, but strong cost support due to weak liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for the peak season [46][47]. Pulp - It is oscillating strongly. The market shows a differentiation of futures premium and spot price stagnation. The supply pressure is still there, and the demand support is limited [50][52]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has risen slightly recently, and the production and sales in most regions are acceptable [54][55]. Methanol - It is running strongly. The spot price index increased. It is expected to follow the strength of the commodity market in the short - term, with a neutral short - term fundamental [57][60]. Urea - It is running strongly in the short - term. The inventory decreased this week. It may follow the strength of the commodity market. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in late July, but there is pressure from the end of domestic agricultural demand [62][64]. Styrene - The "anti - involution" sentiment is strong, and it is strong in the short - term. It is currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, mainly for short - allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated inventory build - up stage [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price oscillated upwards, and some enterprises controlled orders. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly and the low price may rise [67]. LPG - It is oscillating weakly in the short - term. The 8 - month and 9 - month Saudi CP expectations decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [71][78]. PVC - It is strong in the short - term but still has pressure above. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term, and the export sustainability needs to be observed [81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session weakened slightly, and it is mainly in a short - term sideways trend. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market remained weak [86]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is recommended to short at high prices for the October contract and hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [88].