若企业能证明其人力与人工智能投资实现了高效利用，那么美国民众的生活水平有望得到提升。 专题：美国12月非农略低于预期 生产率的大幅跃升，是解读当前美国经济动向的关键所在。 企业大举投入人工智能领域，同时放缓招聘步伐，推动劳动者生产率创下两年来最快增速。美国国内生 产总值（GDP）的增长不再依赖大量劳动力投入，美国劳动者无需付出更多体力或脑力劳动，就能实现 经济增长。 美国劳工部数据显示，第三季度劳动者每小时产出年化增速达到 4.9%，这一水平与 2023 年以来的峰值 持平。 睿域管理咨询公司（RSM）首席经济学家乔・布鲁苏拉在周四的报告中写道，过去六个月生产率平均 增幅达到 4.5%，这是 "不折不扣的好消息"。 责任编辑：郭明煜 专题：美国12月非农略低于预期 生产率的大幅跃升，是解读当前美国经济动向的关键所在。 然而，同一时期美国经济增速达到 4.3%，就业岗位的增长却十分乏力。 某种意义上，企业经营蒸蒸日上，却在领英平台上传递出 "无需再招聘人手" 的信号。 生产率激增的同时，失业率预期走高、招聘市场陷入停滞、自动化引发的焦虑情绪持续蔓延，种种迹象 都预示着一场经济与社会困局。推动 GDP 增长的生产 ...

转自：新华财经 星展集团：美国12月制造业PMI意外走弱强化美联储宽松预期 三菱日联银行：英国食品通胀升温，英镑获支撑 荷兰国际集团：地缘风险或使丹麦央行大规模干预汇市 【机构分析】 •瑞讯银行分析师指出，2026年市场将受地缘政治、美国中期选举、货币政策分化及人工智能发展主 导，AI热潮在驱动创新的同时也引发科技股估值泡沫担忧。真正的尾部风险可能源于意料之外的宏观 冲击或政策突变，这些被市场忽略的因素或成全局性扰动源。 •eToro策略师警告，2026年美联储主席更替及特朗普政府施压降息可能削弱央行独立性，过度宽松或意 外重燃通胀，构成被低估的尾部风险。2026年美国中期选举、最高法院对特朗普关税政策的裁决，及其 对多国激进言论（如委内瑞拉、格陵兰等），正显著推升地缘政治风险溢价。匈牙利、巴西、哥伦比亚 等国2026年大选结果将影响财政与监管走向；若保守派在拉美胜出，或利好市场情绪。 •凯投宏观称，日本ICT投资难转化为生产率优势。尽管日本ICT投资领先G7，但日本生产率增长仍将持 续落后于主要发达经济体，投资与产出效率关联微弱。未来十年，预计AI每年仅提升日本劳动生产率 0.7%，约为其他发达经济体增速的 ...

Market Overview - The tech bubble from 1995 to 2000 was driven by technological advancements, macroeconomic changes, regulatory relaxations, and shifts in monetary policy frameworks[6] - The NASDAQ Composite Index peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, before a significant sell-off began due to external economic shocks[9] Economic Factors - Labor productivity in the U.S. increased significantly during this period, breaking the long-standing relationship of "low unemployment and high inflation" and contributing to economic resilience[6] - The rapid increase in productivity led to a contraction of the output gap, with inflation remaining subdued despite declining unemployment rates[17] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve, under Alan Greenspan, adopted a technology-friendly monetary policy framework, maintaining low interest rates to support economic growth while being cautious about inflation[22] - The Fed's approach evolved to focus on maintaining overall price stability and managing the consequences of asset bubbles rather than attempting to burst them[23] Investment Trends - The number of tech IPOs surged from 1995, peaking in 1999, reflecting a growing investor appetite for technology stocks[9] - In 1998 and 1999, tech stocks experienced a significant rally, with the information technology sector showing returns of 77.64% and 78.44% respectively[32] Risk Factors - The report highlights that excessive liquidity and regulatory relaxation were common characteristics of bubbles, with the potential for chaotic leverage expansion being a critical concern[6] - The experience of the tech bubble serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing that historical patterns cannot be solely relied upon for future investment decisions[2]

【力挺"自己人"搞改革："影子联储主席"哈塞特支持设地区联储主席居住地要求 】哈塞特支持贝森特 提出的新规，要求地区联储主席候选人必须在所在辖区居住至少三年。他重申，下周美联储应该继续谨 慎降息；称除非"黑天鹅"干扰，否则明年将是经济黄金年份，"鉴于AI加速发展的程度"，明年生产率可 能提高4%。详见 ...

更多消息，持续更新中 12月5日，被视作美联储主席候选人领跑者的哈塞特在福克斯商业频道发表讲话。他表示，现在是美联 储"谨慎降息"的好时机，并且他预计央行将在下周采取行动。 他同时指出，人工智能经济的发展速度已超越20世纪90年代的互联网经济。针对关税问题，他警告称， 若最高法院最终否决现行关税政策，可能引发巨大混乱。 他澄清未与特朗普讨论过美联储主席相关议题，支持贝森特对美联储主席的看法。 他预计政府关门的影响比预期的要大，尽管如此，经济有望在明年第一季度实现更强劲的反弹。2026年 的生产率可能会达到4%。如果（明年）一季度和二季度的经济增速为3%，将会感到失望。 ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：现在是美联储 "谨慎降息"的好时机，预计美联储下周将采取这 一行动。预计政府关门的影响比预期的要大。预计第一季度将出现更大幅度的反弹。2026年的生产率可 能会达到4%。人工智能经济的发展速度比20世纪90年代的互联网经济更快。如果（明年）一季度和二 季度的（经济）增速为3%，将会感到失望。如果最高法院否决关税，将会造成巨大混乱。没有和特朗 普讨论过美联储主席的问题。我支持贝森特对美联储主席的看法。 ...

Core Insights - Westpac Bank anticipates a significant enhancement in Australia's economic growth momentum in Q3, with GDP expected to increase by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and an annualized growth rate rising to 2.3%, slightly above the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest forecast of 2.0% [1] Economic Performance - The standout feature of the data is the strong performance of domestic demand, which is projected to surge by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the strongest quarterly growth since early 2012 [1] - The economic recovery is becoming increasingly broad-based, supported by multiple sectors rather than relying on individual areas for growth [1] Future Outlook - As the impact of exceptionally large capital expenditure projects, particularly aircraft purchases, gradually diminishes, overall economic growth rates are expected to slow in the coming quarters [1] - However, excluding these one-off factors, the underlying growth rate for the quarter is still projected to remain at a healthy level of 0.6%, indicating inherent economic resilience [1] Productivity and Labor Costs - A significant rebound in productivity is anticipated, with an annual increase of 0.9%, which will help slow the growth rate of nominal unit labor costs to approximately 2.5% (on a six-month annualized basis) [1] - This development is seen as a positive signal for the Reserve Bank of Australia as it weighs inflation prospects [1]

美联储巴尔金：如果劳动力数量不增加，经济增长将完全取决于生产率。 来源：滚动播报 ...

AI Impact on Employment - White House National Economic Council Director Hassett suggests AI-driven productivity gains may lead to a "quiet period" in the job market [1] - The Trump administration acknowledges concerns about AI replacing entry-level positions [1] Monetary Policy - Hassett indicates it's time for the Federal Reserve to be truly "data-driven" [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Jefferson stated that the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity will significantly influence monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The integration of artificial intelligence is expected to enhance productivity levels across various sectors [1] - Changes in productivity due to AI advancements may lead to adjustments in interest rates and other monetary policy tools [1] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the developments in AI to assess its implications for the economy [1]