美联储巴尔金：如果劳动力数量不增加，经济增长将完全取决于生产率。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，AI提升生产率或致就业市场“平静期”，美联储是时候真正“以数据为驱动”。🗒️特朗普政府高层罕见公开承认AI取代初级岗位的担忧。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储杰斐逊：人工智能对生产率的影响将对货币政策产生重大影响。 ...

美国经济的"混合信号" 在全球经济充满不确定性的当下，美国经济展现出消费强劲、AI投资高涨与劳动力市场趋缓的复杂图 景。近日，全球知名宏观经济学家奥利弗·布兰查德（Olivier Blanchard）在2025年外滩年会期间接受21 世纪经济报道记者专访时指出，美国经济正受到"关税冲击"与"AI驱动"两股力量的拉扯，当前增长主要 依赖人工智能投资带来的生产率提升。 布兰查德认为，AI投资的直接效应是刺激需求、提振信心；间接效应则体现在生产率上升。"美国就业 增长不显著，而产出增长较快，这说明生产率提升强劲。"他强调，这种变化若持续，将代表美国结构 性增长潜能正在上移，但目前尚难判断这种趋势究竟是短期周期性反弹还是长期结构性转折。 针对AI与就业的关系，布兰查德提醒，尽管当前生产率增长显著，但AI可能导致部分技能型岗位被替 代，引发结构性失业。他建议个人应拓展可迁移技能，避免过度专业化；政府和社会也需积极推动再培 训项目，应对未来劳动力市场的潜在挑战。 布兰查德是麻省理工学院罗伯特·M·索洛经济学荣休教授、彼得森国际经济研究所C.弗雷德·伯格斯滕高 级研究员，曾担任国际货币基金组织（IMF）首席经济学家、美国经 ...

Core Insights - The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has raised its economic growth forecast for the region to 2.4% for 2025, maintaining a 2.3% growth forecast for 2026, with increased trade with China being a significant factor [1][2] Economic Growth Projections - ECLAC's upward revision reflects an improvement in the external environment affecting the region's economy, with major trading partners performing better than previously expected [1] - For South America, the growth forecast for 2025 is now 2.9%, up from the previous estimate of 2.7%, driven by increased trade with China and a rebound in prices of precious metals and other natural resources [1] - Central America and Mexico are expected to grow by 1.2%, slightly higher than before, mainly due to improved international trade conditions [1] - The Caribbean region (excluding Guyana) has a slightly raised growth forecast of 1.9%, benefiting from strong performance in the tourism sector [1] Recommendations for Regional Countries - ECLAC calls for regional countries to maintain macroeconomic stability, enhance productivity, promote export diversification, expand intra-regional trade, and encourage sustainable investment [2] - The importance of international cooperation and multilateralism is emphasized for consolidating economic recovery and mitigating geopolitical fragmentation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has raised its economic growth forecast for the Latin America and Caribbean region to 2.4% for 2025, while maintaining the 2026 growth forecast at 2.3% [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - The 2025 growth forecast for South America has been increased to 2.9%, up from the previous estimate of 2.7% in August, driven by increased trade with China and a rebound in prices of precious metals and other natural resources [1]. - Central America and Mexico are expected to see a growth of 1.2% [1]. - The Caribbean region (excluding Guyana) has a slightly raised growth forecast of 1.9%, primarily benefiting from better-than-expected performance in the tourism sector [1]. External Environment and Risks - The upward revision reflects a more favorable external environment impacting the region's economy, although multiple downward risks remain, such as slower-than-expected global inflation decline, potential severe adjustments in international financial markets, and rising fiscal sustainability pressures in developed economies [1]. Recommendations for Regional Countries - ECLAC calls for regional countries to maintain macroeconomic stability, enhance productivity, promote export diversification, expand intra-regional trade, and encourage sustainable investment [1]. - The organization emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and multilateralism in consolidating economic recovery momentum and mitigating geopolitical economic fragmentation [1].

Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure Impact - In Q2 2025, capital expenditure by the "MAG 7" companies in the US approached $100 billion, doubling from three years prior, with a year-on-year growth rate of 64.8%[2] - From Q4 2022 to Q2 2025, US computer equipment investment grew by 61%, significantly outpacing other sectors[2] - AI-related investments have become a major driver of the US stock market, with MAG 7 capital expenditure accounting for 30% of the S&P 500[2] Group 2: Economic Contribution of AI Investment - In the first half of 2025, AI investment contributed 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth, nearly matching the 1.1 percentage points contributed by consumer spending[3] - The net investment in computer equipment has shown a negative contribution to the economy since 2023, highlighting the impact of imports[3] Group 3: Productivity and Historical Comparison - The probability of the US being in a "low growth" phase for productivity is as high as 85% as of Q2 2025[4] - From 2019 to 2024, US labor productivity growth averaged 2.1%, lower than the 2.2% and 2.7% growth rates seen in the previous two decades[4] - Since Q4 2022, AI investment as a percentage of GDP has only increased by 0.4 percentage points, compared to a 1.4 percentage point increase during the last tech revolution[4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The current AI investment cycle is supported by strong financial fundamentals, with MAG 7 companies showing better cash flow and profitability metrics than during the dot-com bubble[5] - Potential headwinds for future AI capital expenditure include declining free cash flow, pressure on profits, and rising electricity demand for data centers[5]

Core Viewpoint - The current labor market in the U.S. shows no significant hiring or layoffs, with demand and supply contracting at a similar pace, indicating a stable yet cautious economic environment [1] Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - U.S. companies are neither engaging in large-scale hiring nor layoffs, reflecting a balanced labor market [1] - Labor demand remains robust, particularly among high-income groups, suggesting a divergence in economic activity based on income levels [1] Group 2: Cost Management and Productivity - Companies are planning to pass on tariff costs to consumers, indicating a strategy to manage rising expenses [1] - There are signs of improving productivity, which may help alleviate some cost pressures faced by businesses [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers continue to spend, but with more caution compared to previous years, indicating a shift towards more selective purchasing decisions [1] Group 4: Federal Reserve Data Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges due to a reduction in available data, complicating its decision-making process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding which companies will emerge as winners in the next market focus, suggesting a diversified investment approach as a strategy to navigate this unpredictability [5]. Group 1: AI and Productivity - The article posits that AI is expected to enhance productivity across various industries, similar to the historical impacts of the steam engine and electricity [6]. - It highlights the importance of understanding the future implications of AI technology on businesses, which should guide investment decisions [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that betting on a wave of productivity benefiting most companies differs from betting on the difficult development of a few legacy firms or the emergence of the next generation of superstar companies [6]. - It indicates that while the future winners and losers in the AI landscape are uncertain, the overall trend points towards widespread benefits across industries [6].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve, represented by Jefferson, is actively seeking to understand artificial intelligence and its potential impact on productivity [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focusing on the implications of artificial intelligence for economic productivity [1]