存储方面，AI持续推动存储需求，TrendForce预计存储器产业2026年产值达5,516亿美元，yoy+134%； DRAM与NANDFlash合约价涨势有望延续至2027年。CPU方面，AI智能体对通用计算能力的需求正在 加速增长，加上通用服务器进入更新周期，驱动服务器CPU价格上涨。 被动元件方面，在AI服务器领域电源管理等方面的需求拉动下，头部厂商正在持续推动高端被动元件 涨价，例如国巨在2025年11月上调其应用于AI服务器、汽车电子等领域的部分钽电容价格。 服务器制造方面，美国放宽对英伟达H200芯片出口到中国的监管规定，有望提升对国内服务器制造的 需求。此外，AI算力对服务器PCB、数据中心光模块等互联类硬件的需求有望保持强劲态势，并拉动上 游的高端铜箔、电子布、光芯片等物料的需求，使得相关物料维持供需紧张的态势。 国产算力相关硬件持续突破技术瓶颈，有望深化国产替代 智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，当前AI推理等需求拉动AI算力需求持续攀升，相关硬件的供 需失衡情况正由点及面。其中，在封测方面，AI算力强劲需求与原材料成本压力共振下，部分封测厂 近期陆续启动封测价格涨价；存储方面，AI ...

Core Viewpoint - The electronic sector is expected to show a significant upward trend in profitability by the second half of 2025, driven primarily by AI and strong demand for self-controlled technologies, leading to valuation expansion [1] Group 1: Storage Industry - The storage industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand situation, with AI becoming the core driver of future storage demand [1] - Rapid growth in computing power demand due to AI training and inference is leading to increased storage needs for HBM, large-capacity DDR5, and enterprise SSDs [1] - Limited capital expenditure from overseas storage manufacturers in recent years has resulted in constrained supply, with projected NAND and DRAM supply-demand gaps of -14.20% and -9.38% respectively for 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Computing Power Demand - The demand for computing power is expected to continue growing, with CSP cloud providers increasing capital expenditures [3] - The global demand for computing PCBs is projected to reach 513 billion, 1068 billion, and 1785 billion from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 88%, 108%, and 67% respectively [3] - The transition to liquid cooling solutions is anticipated due to rising power consumption in computing infrastructure [3] Group 3: End-Side AI Innovation - Major overseas companies are shifting focus to consumer applications, with Apple significantly increasing its AI investments and enhancing model capabilities [4] - Apple plans to develop a rich product lineup around iPhone, wearables, and smart home devices over the next 2-3 years, contributing to its end-side AI ecosystem [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities in the storage industry include companies like Tuojing Technology, Zhongwei Company, and others, with a focus on domestic storage chip and module companies benefiting from the tight supply-demand situation [5] - Emphasis on high growth in computing power demand, with recommendations for companies like Huidian Co., Shennan Circuit, and others [5] - Positive outlook on end-side AI innovation, with suggested investments in companies like Pengding Holdings, Luxshare Precision, and others [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent tariff adjustments between the US and China, highlighting a temporary compromise in the ongoing tech rivalry, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which presents both short-term benefits and long-term challenges for the industry [2][19]. Policy Framework and Execution Mechanism - The US has reduced tariffs on semiconductor-related imports from a maximum of 145% to 30%, while China has lowered its retaliatory tariffs from 125% to 10%, with a 90-day negotiation buffer until August 12, 2025 [2]. - Sensitive areas like semiconductor equipment and AI chips remain excluded from tariff reductions, and the US continues to enforce technology restrictions through an "entity list" [2][7]. Industry Chain Cost Restructuring and Market Segmentation Short-term Cost Improvement and Supply Chain Recovery - Equipment procurement costs have decreased by approximately 18%-22% for companies like SMIC, facilitating expansion plans for advanced processes [4]. - The utilization rate for automotive chips at SMIC's Tianjin facility has increased from 65% to 82% due to reduced costs for mature process chips [5]. - US companies like Qualcomm and Intel are expected to see a 12%-15% increase in sales in China by the second half of 2025, potentially impacting domestic competitors [6]. Long-term Competition and Structural Challenges - Despite tariff reductions, technology access remains restricted, with delays in SMIC's expansion due to equipment export limitations [7]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment and materials are gaining market share, with the bidding rate for domestic 28nm etching machines increasing from 22% to 37% [9]. - The global semiconductor supply chain is undergoing regional restructuring, with increased compliance costs for companies adapting to new trade rules [10]. Differentiated Impact and Strategic Choices in Sub-sectors Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - The cost of exporting lithography and etching machines to China has decreased, but key technologies like EUV lithography remain restricted [11]. - Domestic companies are focusing on technological breakthroughs to reduce costs in semiconductor materials, with current profit margins significantly lower than international competitors [11]. Chip Design and Manufacturing - The import cost of high-end AI chips has decreased by 24%, but US policies may restrict sales to China [12]. - SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor are enhancing their competitiveness in automotive chips, but face pricing pressures from international competitors [12]. Packaging and Testing - SMIC's advancements in advanced packaging technologies may attract more AI chip orders, but competition from US subsidies for TSMC could divert high-end demand [13]. Corporate Response Strategies and Market Outlook Short-term Strategies - Companies are diversifying their supply chains, with SMIC shifting 20% of its equipment procurement to Japan and Europe [14]. - Inventory management strategies are being implemented to mitigate risks from fluctuating tariff policies [15]. Long-term Strategies - Investments in domestic technology are being prioritized, with significant funding directed towards local semiconductor manufacturers [16]. - Companies like Huawei are expanding their market presence in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with overseas revenue expected to rise [16]. Future Trends - The tariff adjustments represent a temporary easing in US-China tech tensions, but core issues like technology restrictions and industrial subsidies remain unresolved [19]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience short-term cost improvements alongside long-term competitive pressures, with key negotiations in the next 90 days being critical for future stability [19].