如何看 AI 剧的爆发趋势及商业化机会 20260125 摘要 AI 短剧市场细分类型多样，包括动态漫、表情包漫剧、AI 真人和小说漫 解，其中 AI 真人在 2025 年 12 月迎来爆发期，预计 2026 年 1 月投放 量将继续增加，表明 AI 真人短剧市场潜力巨大。 AI 短剧受众以男性为主，但女性受众比例在 2025 年第三季度至第四季 度呈现上升趋势，表明 AI 短剧在吸引更广泛受众方面具有潜力，市场结 构正在发生变化。 抖音在 AI 短剧广告投放规模远超快手和腾讯，12 月广告流水较 6 月增 长超 20 倍，全年播放量达 700 多亿次，显示抖音在 AI 短剧推广和用户 获取方面占据主导地位。 AI 短剧供给端内容丰富，但优质内容和 AI 真人剧仍然稀缺，供给量增长 迅速，但审核速度可能受到平台版权中心合并的影响，这可能影响市场 增长速度。 AIGC 显著降低了内容生产成本，改变了传统生产关系，编导和编剧的 价值提升，核心竞争力在于柔性洞察力和社会情绪把握，高质量 AI 导演 需具备艺术修养和影视语言能力。 Q&A 2025 年下半年以来，AI 短剧行业发生了哪些显著变化？ 从 2025 年下 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 文 | 定焦One 陈丹 编辑 | 魏佳 AI漫剧风头正盛之际，短剧行业又迎来下一个拐点。 过去几个月，一种更具颠覆性的内容形态正在加速出圈——AI真人短剧。从数据来看，它已经跑出了具有代表性的作 品。《斩仙台AI真人版》（以下简称"斩仙台"）上线两天登顶红果漫剧热播榜，六天播放量破亿；仅2025年12月，就有 8部AI真人短剧播放量突破3000万。 所谓AI真人短剧，并非新物种。与传统的真人短剧相比，其演员的形象和表演过程完全由AI生成；与AI漫剧相比，它 不再依赖虚拟的漫画风格，而是试图复刻真人演员的外形、表情与镜头语言，更接近观众熟悉的观影体验。 早在2024年，行业内就已出现相关尝试，2025年的《兴安岭诡事》《奶团太后宫心计》也曾引发各方关注。但当时技术 不够稳定，人物一致性、画面真实感与沉浸体验存在明显短板。因此，去年AI在短剧行业生产力的释放更多体现在二 次元画风的漫剧上。 变化发生在最近一轮技术迭代之后。以《斩仙台AI人版》为例，与几个月前的作品相比，人物细节更加稳定，音画同 步问题基本解决，观众不再频繁被"AI感"打断 ...

如果说2025年是AI漫剧元年，2026年我们有望迎来AI真人短剧的爆发。 刚刚开年，就有一部AI真人短剧实现了对AI漫剧"弯道超车"，《斩仙台AI真人版》上线两天就成功登顶红果漫剧热播榜、DataEye抖音动态漫榜首，仅用 六天就实现播放量破亿，不仅打破了AI真人短剧的市场天花板，也再次刷新行业对于AI技术潜力的认知。 | 《红果漫剧榜》 | | | | 《 抖音动态漫榜》 | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基于红果观看/互动/个人兴趣及热度值排序 | | | | 基于抖音端原生播放增量排序 | | | 热播榜 飘升榜 漫剧榜 | 新剧榜 | 热搜 (2) | 动态漫榜 | 抖音热播 快手热播 | 红景 更多 | | | | | | 日榜 × | 2026-01-15 V | | 推荐 热播 新剧 | | | | 斩仙台真人AI版 | A 1285.8w | | 斩仙台真人AI版 | | ● 5170万熟度 | | 古代/剧情 ■ 妙想制片厂(斩仙台热播中 ■ 番茄 | | | 玄幻脑洞 | 现代青年陆凡穿越进小说,成为为父母报仇、遭西方教 | | ...

Core Insights - The perception of short dramas has shifted from being considered "cheap and low-quality" in 2024 to a more nuanced appreciation for their emotional depth and production quality by the end of 2025 [1][3] Industry Trends - The transition from a "paying for views" model to a "viewers seeking quality content" model is driving traffic towards high-quality productions, indicating a natural selection process favoring premium content [3] - The short drama industry is experiencing a significant upgrade in production quality, with the average crew size increasing to 40-80 members, and the number of jobs created reaching approximately 1.333 million [6][8] - The production costs for mid-tier short dramas have risen by 30%-50%, now averaging between 500,000 to 600,000 yuan, with some productions exceeding 1 million yuan [10] Content Quality Enhancement - Emotional engagement in short dramas has evolved from simplistic narratives to more complex character development and emotional depth, with protagonists exhibiting realistic traits and growth [11][13] - The industry is witnessing a trend towards character-driven narratives, where protagonists are no longer one-dimensional but possess depth and relatability, enhancing viewer connection [11][13] Market Dynamics - The male-oriented short drama market, initially dominant, has seen a decline, with male-themed productions dropping from 521 to 312 titles, although a resurgence of quality male dramas is noted since August 2025 [15][17] - Notable male dramas like "One Piece" and "The Adventure of the Great Grandmother" have gained significant viewership, indicating a potential recovery in the male short drama segment [17][20] IP Development - The adaptation of long-form IPs into short dramas is becoming a common practice, with several classic titles being reimagined for shorter formats, although the compatibility of deep emotional content with short drama formats remains a challenge [21][23] - Successful short drama IPs are being developed into series, with rapid production cycles allowing for timely audience feedback integration, leading to higher quality sequels [25][26] Technological Integration - The rise of AI-generated short dramas is noted, with several successful titles emerging in 2025, indicating a shift towards innovative storytelling methods that could fill existing content gaps [27][30]

Core Insights - The emergence of AI-generated short dramas is transforming the content production landscape, with significant market responses observed for titles like "奶团太后三岁半" and "九尾狐男妖爱上我" [1][6] - AI-generated short dramas have the potential to disrupt traditional production methods, although they are still in the exploratory phase compared to AI animated dramas [1][18] - The market for AI-generated short dramas is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 634.3 billion yuan by 2025 [18] Group 1: Market Response and Trends - Recent AI-generated short dramas have achieved over 200 million views, indicating strong audience interest [1][6] - The genre is still relatively new, with audience reactions ranging from curiosity to acceptance as AI content becomes more prevalent [2][3] - The AI short drama market is characterized by a focus on female-oriented themes, contrasting with the male-dominated AI animated drama sector [6][7] Group 2: Production Efficiency and Cost Reduction - AI-generated short dramas can significantly reduce production costs, with examples showing costs dropping from tens of thousands per minute to around 10,000 yuan for entire projects [11][9] - The production process has been streamlined, allowing small teams to create content that traditionally required larger crews and longer timelines [9][11] - The use of AI tools enables rapid content creation, with some projects completed in as little as two weeks [11] Group 3: Industry Participation and Competition - Major platforms like iQIYI and Tencent are actively investing in AI short drama competitions to attract talent and innovate in this space [13][14] - Traditional media companies, including TVB, are also exploring AI-generated content to rejuvenate their offerings [14][17] - Technology companies are developing platforms to facilitate AI short drama creation, aiming for a "one-click" production process [17] Group 4: Content Quality and Challenges - Despite technological advancements, there is a concern that AI-generated content may lack depth in storytelling and character development [21][22] - The industry needs to balance technical innovation with narrative quality to avoid viewer fatigue and ensure engaging content [21][22] - The potential for diverse themes exists, but the current focus remains limited, indicating a need for broader creative exploration [19][21]

Core Insights - The AI short drama series "奶团太后" has achieved over 200 million views, surpassing many traditional live-action short dramas [1][3] - The emergence of Sora 2 has significantly boosted the AI short drama industry, enabling rapid content generation and potentially leading to a commercialized model [3][22] - The production process of AI short dramas is evolving, with companies adopting unique workflows that enhance efficiency and reduce costs [22][24] Industry Trends - The AI short drama sector is experiencing explosive growth, with notable examples like "九尾狐男妖爱上我" reaching over 210 million views in less than two months [1][3] - The traditional roles of screenwriters, directors, and post-production teams are being re-evaluated as AI technologies streamline the production process [3][22] - The production model is shifting towards a more industrialized approach, allowing for faster and more cost-effective content creation [24][28] Production Insights - The production of AI short dramas often features unconventional and intriguing storylines, as seen in "奶团太后," which includes unique character developments and plot twists [4][10] - Companies like "雪宝" are pioneering new methods, such as using a single comprehensive image to guide the entire production process, enhancing continuity and efficiency [23][24] - The AI-driven production model eliminates many traditional filming challenges, such as actor scheduling and location coordination, leading to significant cost savings [24][28] Market Dynamics - The AI short drama market is poised for further commercialization, with advancements in technology and increasing audience acceptance [27][28] - The cost of producing AI short dramas is significantly lower than traditional methods, with estimates suggesting a cost of 1000 to 1500 RMB per minute for animated content [27][28] - Platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou are actively supporting AI short drama creators through tools and incentives, further driving market growth [31][32] Future Outlook - The industry anticipates that as AI technology matures, the quality and acceptance of AI-generated content will improve, leading to broader market opportunities [27][34] - The focus will remain on storytelling and creativity, with the potential for AI to enhance production quality without proportionally increasing costs [34][35] - Companies are increasingly adopting a centralized workflow to streamline production processes and mitigate risks associated with personnel turnover [32][34]