21世纪经济报道记者 刘婧汐 根据Sensor Tower数据，2025年Q1季度全球短剧应用内购收入逼近7亿美元，是2024年第一季度的近4 倍。而短剧应用下载量同样快速攀升，2025年Q1全球下载量超过3.7亿次，是2024年Q1的6.2倍。截至 2025年3月，全球短剧应用累计下载量接近9.5亿次。 "短剧是一种全新的休闲方式，具有旺盛的生命力和发展潜力。"枫叶互动创始人兼首席执行官贾毅在接 受采访时表示，"这些'第一'的背后都是创新，是我们根据市场的变化不断进行的全新探索。" 短剧海外走红 短剧出海，正在成为中国泛娱乐内容国际化的新赛道，展现出巨大的市场潜力和商业价值。根据《中国 微短剧行业发展白皮书(2024)》，未来微短剧海外市场规模有望达到360亿美元。 当被问及短剧能在海外迅速走红的原因时，贾毅认为这是宏观因素与微观因素共同作用的结果。"最根 本的原因在于国家强大。"贾毅坦言，"过去很长一段时间，一个国家的经济实力往往通过文化分享来体 现。随着中国综合实力的提升，许多优秀的本土故事和表达方式逐渐受到更多海外观众的喜爱，这为短 剧出海奠定了坚实的基础。" 在宏观因素之外，短剧自身的特点也成为其走 ...

Group 1 - The media and film industry is showing positive trends, driven by the commercialization of AI technology and improvements in model accuracy and application willingness [1] - The film "The Little Monster of Langlang Mountain" exceeded box office expectations, with Maoyan predicting a revenue increase to 1.524 billion yuan, and July box office reaching 4.067 billion yuan, indicating market recovery [1] - The potential for IP derivative product development is significant, with collaborations like that of Light Chaser Animation and Pop Mart driving sales growth [1] Group 2 - The short drama industry is evolving towards high-quality productions, shifting its profit model from paid to free, fostering win-win collaborations between platforms and producers [1] - The Film ETF (516620) tracks the CSI Film Index (930781), which selects listed companies involved in film content production, distribution, and related services, reflecting the overall performance of the film industry [1] - The CSI Film Index covers the entire industry chain from content creation to terminal screening, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the short drama market in China is entering a critical period of quality and efficiency improvement, with a market size projected to reach 50.4 billion yuan and a user base of 660 million by 2024, making it an essential part of mass entertainment consumption [1][8][15] - The user demographic is balanced across age groups, with users under and over 40 years old each accounting for approximately 50% of the audience, and the primary audience coming from third-tier cities and below, showcasing cultural penetration across generations and regions [1][8][15] Market Growth and User Engagement - The user base for short dramas is expected to grow significantly, with a half-year growth rate of 14.8% in 2024, and over 70% of users developing regular viewing habits, indicating high user engagement [1][2][15] - Daily viewing is reported at 36.19%, while 38.15% of users watch multiple times a week, reflecting strong user stickiness [1][2][18] Content Production and Trends - The supply side of short dramas is performing well, with over 53,000 new dramas uploaded by February 2025, and a 61-fold increase in authors contributing to IAP+IAA [2][11] - Urban themes dominate the content landscape, with romance remaining central and fantasy genres experiencing a growth rate of 325%. Original content accounts for 100%, with 378 dramas exceeding 100 million views, demonstrating robust content production capabilities [2][11] Commercial Value and Advertising Growth - The dual-driven model of IAP+IAA has shown significant results, with advertising consumption in Q4 2024 increasing by 300%, and peak advertising consumption during holidays, such as over 30 million yuan during the 2025 Spring Festival [2][11] - Many brands are entering the market through customized short dramas and product placements, with a growth rate of 365% in commercial cooperation projects, indicating deep integration of content and commerce [2][11] Technological Innovation and Future Directions - The industry is transitioning from extensive development to a focus on quality, with technological innovation as a core driver. Kuaishou is leading the "short drama + AI" initiative, utilizing its self-developed AI model, Keling AI, to enhance production efficiency and expand genre boundaries [1][2][8] - Future plans include increasing investment in AIGC (AI-Generated Content) and deepening cross-industry collaborations with film, gaming, and other sectors to promote a diversified and high-quality short drama ecosystem [2][11][56]

Core Insights - Hongguo Short Drama has achieved significant growth, reaching 210 million monthly active users (MAU) by June 2025, a 179% year-on-year increase, surpassing Youku's 200.6 million MAU for the first time [1][2] - The rapid rise of Hongguo Short Drama is attributed to its unique product features, business model, and the backing of ByteDance, which has allowed it to capitalize on the growth of the short drama segment [2][6] - Despite its leading position, Hongguo Short Drama faces challenges in a rapidly changing industry and must focus on user retention and content quality as growth begins to slow [3][17] Industry Overview - The short drama industry began its rise in 2020, initially driven by paid short drama mini-programs within the WeChat ecosystem, which quickly gained popularity due to their engaging and fast-paced content [4] - The introduction of Hongguo Short Drama in August 2023 marked a shift in the industry towards a free model, which has since gained significant traction, with free model users increasing from 11% to 50% in just ten months [5][6] - The short drama market has seen explosive growth, with micro short drama users reaching 662 million by the end of 2024, and an average daily usage time of 101 minutes, comparable to instant messaging apps [12] Business Model and Monetization - Hongguo Short Drama's primary revenue source is advertising, with 149 brands participating in micro short drama marketing in the first half of 2025, 52% of which were new entrants [8] - The platform has also introduced a membership service offering various subscription options, allowing users to access a vast library of content without individual purchase costs [10][11] - The monetization strategy includes a combination of advertising, membership, and single drama purchases, creating a comprehensive business ecosystem [11] Competitive Landscape - The rapid success of Hongguo Short Drama has triggered competitive responses from traditional long video platforms, which are now entering the short drama space with their own offerings [15][16] - Major players like Tencent Video and iQIYI are launching their own short drama products, focusing on high-quality content rather than the mass content strategy initially employed by Hongguo [16] - Despite the emergence of new competitors, Hongguo Short Drama maintains a strong position, although it is experiencing a slowdown in user growth rates [17] Content Quality and Regulation - The industry is transitioning from rapid growth to a focus on content quality, driven by both market demands and regulatory pressures [19][20] - Hongguo Short Drama is responding to regulatory scrutiny by enhancing its content review processes and aiming for higher quality productions [20][21] - The establishment of a "Short Drama Copyright Center" by ByteDance aims to strengthen copyright management and resource integration within the short drama ecosystem [21][22] Future Directions - Hongguo Short Drama is evolving into a "super app," integrating various content types such as movies, audiobooks, and comics to create a closed ecosystem that enhances user engagement [25][26] - The platform's focus on high-quality content production and strategic partnerships is expected to drive its growth in a more competitive landscape [26]

Core Insights - The short video industry is experiencing a significant shift, with regulatory tightening leading to the closure of many short video programs and a wave of small platform bankruptcies. However, Hongguo Short Drama has emerged as a leader with a monthly active user count of 199 million, challenging long video platforms like Youku [1][2][3]. Industry Dynamics - The competition landscape is changing as major players like Kuaishou and various internet giants enter the short drama space, leading to a blending of long and short video formats. Long video platforms are now developing short drama sections and dedicated apps to keep up with the trend [1][2][7]. - The influx of new competitors is reshaping the video industry, with a clear trend towards the integration of short dramas into traditional long video platforms [1][7]. Content Production Challenges - The rapid production model of short dramas is facing scrutiny as the industry shifts towards standardization and quality. Hongguo's production speed, with an average of 3,959 new short dramas per year, is leading to content homogenization and user fatigue [5][6][11]. - The reliance on a "free and fast" model is becoming unsustainable as the industry moves towards a more premium content approach, raising questions about the longevity of this strategy [4][7][11]. Financial Implications - Short dramas have a cost advantage, with production costs significantly lower than traditional long dramas, making them an attractive option for long video platforms seeking to improve profitability [7][8]. - The competition for talent and content is intensifying, with platforms increasing revenue-sharing ratios to attract creators. For instance, Youku has raised its revenue-sharing ratios for exclusive short dramas, indicating a potential "money war" in the industry [8][9]. Regulatory Environment - The tightening of content regulations is complicating the production of popular short dramas, with many being taken down due to compliance issues. This adds another layer of difficulty for platforms like Hongguo, which previously thrived on sensational content [10][11][12]. - The shift towards quality content is evident as Hongguo begins to explore more diverse and innovative themes, moving away from its traditional "quick gratification" model [12].

Core Insights - Hongguo Short Drama has achieved remarkable growth, reaching nearly 200 million monthly active users, positioning itself as a leading platform in the short drama segment [1][3][4] Group 1: User Growth and Market Position - As of now, Hongguo Short Drama has 199 million monthly active users, significantly surpassing its closest competitor, Hema Theater, which has approximately 40.96 million [1][3] - The platform's user base has grown from 20 million in December 2023 to 54 million in March 2024, and then to over 120 million in September 2024 [3][4] Group 2: Business Model and Content Strategy - Hongguo Short Drama leverages a free content model, which lowers the barriers for user engagement and accelerates user acquisition [4][6] - The platform features a diverse range of themes, including over 30 different storylines, and has produced multiple short dramas with over 1 billion views each [4][6] Group 3: Quality and Content Development Initiatives - The platform is focusing on enhancing content quality through the "Guo Ran Plan," which aims to promote high-quality short dramas by providing investment support and promotional opportunities [7][13] - Hongguo Short Drama has established partnerships with various media and institutions to develop premium micro-short dramas, with over 60 projects launched under the "Guo Ran Plan" [13][15] Group 4: Ecosystem Integration and Future Plans - The establishment of the "Short Drama Copyright Center" aims to integrate resources across Douyin, Hongguo, and Tomato Novel, enhancing content quality and copyright management [48][49] - Hongguo Short Drama is expanding its product matrix with the introduction of new free short drama apps, such as "Muyu," to cater to different user demographics [49][54]

Core Insights - The short drama industry is experiencing a significant polarization, with high-profit short dramas achieving net profits 30 to 40 times their costs, while non-hit dramas often incur higher costs than profits [1][6] - The market for micro short dramas in China is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan in 2024 and surpass 1 trillion yuan by 2027, indicating rapid growth and increasing competition [2] Industry Trends - The trend towards "premiumization" in the short drama sector is driven by user demand for higher quality content, leading platforms to enhance production values and storytelling [3][4] - Platforms like Xiaohongshu are entering the short drama space, with successful launches such as the hit short drama "The Fool's Love," which garnered nearly 80 million views [2] Production and Quality - The industry is shifting from amateur to professional production teams, emphasizing the importance of quality in scriptwriting, filming, and post-production to achieve premium status [3][4] - The focus on creating original intellectual property (IP) is becoming a priority, with industry leaders advocating for the development of unique Chinese IP rather than remaking existing content [4] Revenue Models - The short drama sector is exploring diverse revenue models, including e-commerce integration and brand advertising, to enhance profitability [7] - The production costs for micro short dramas are rising, with average costs now around 700,000 to 800,000 yuan, and some productions reaching 2 to 3 million yuan [6][7] - Successful integration of e-commerce within short dramas can significantly boost revenue, as demonstrated by the sales generated from featured products in hit dramas [7]

Core Viewpoint - The short drama industry is facing criticism for producing content that is increasingly bizarre and illogical, as exemplified by the recent drama "Kirin Sends Children" where a character gives birth to 99 sons, highlighting a trend of low-quality and sensationalist storytelling [1][3][6] Group 1: Industry Trends - The short drama market has been criticized for its lack of quality control, with many productions violating basic moral and ethical standards [4][6] - Despite calls for stricter regulation, the short drama market continues to grow chaotically, with many shows featuring absurd plots that defy common sense [3][6] - The industry has seen a rise in lowbrow content that prioritizes shock value over narrative quality, leading to a perception of short dramas as "low" entertainment [7][8] Group 2: Audience Reception - The bizarre content of short dramas, such as the aforementioned 99 sons, has sparked outrage among viewers, leading to discussions on social media and calls for accountability [6][9] - While some high-quality short dramas have emerged, they remain the exception rather than the rule, as the majority of content continues to be formulaic and sensationalist [6][8] Group 3: Economic Models - The profitability of short dramas relies heavily on user engagement, with two main revenue models: IAP (In-App Purchase) and IAA (Ad-Supported Free Viewing) [8] - The industry's focus on maximizing viewer engagement through extreme and sensational content has become a prevalent strategy, often at the expense of narrative integrity [8][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The short drama industry is at a crossroads, needing to shift from a focus on shock value to a more sustainable model that emphasizes quality content [9][11] - The current trend of prioritizing low-quality, sensationalist content poses long-term risks to the industry's health and reputation, as audiences may become desensitized to extreme narratives [11]

Core Insights - The short drama industry is experiencing rapid growth, with Red Fruit Short Drama leading the market with 173 million monthly active users, a 220.3% year-on-year increase, and a significant revenue stream exceeding 500 million per month [1][3][4] - Traditional long video platforms like iQIYI and Tencent Video are facing challenges due to declining paid user numbers and profitability, prompting them to pivot towards the short drama sector [1][12] - The competition is intensifying as long video platforms innovate their business models and content strategies to compete with Red Fruit Short Drama [2][12] Market Dynamics - Red Fruit Short Drama's success is attributed to its integration within the Byte ecosystem, leveraging traffic from Douyin and content from Tomato Novel, which provides a vast resource for content creation [4][8] - The platform employs a free-to-watch model supported by advertising, appealing to a large user base, particularly in lower-tier markets [7][8] - The short drama market is projected to exceed 100 billion by 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory despite challenges such as content homogenization and rising production costs [24][28] Competitive Landscape - Major players like iQIYI, Tencent Video, and Youku are launching their own short drama initiatives, with iQIYI introducing new theater formats and Tencent focusing on high-quality productions [20][21][22] - The competition is not only about content but also about innovative revenue-sharing models to attract quality creators, with platforms adjusting their strategies to enhance profitability [12][22][29] - Despite the aggressive entry of long video platforms into the short drama space, they are still struggling to establish a foothold against Red Fruit, which has a strong brand recognition among viewers [10][29] Content Creation and Monetization - Red Fruit Short Drama offers attractive incentives for content creators, including higher upfront payments and revenue sharing, making it a preferred platform for many [9][12] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more diverse monetization strategies beyond traditional subscription models, with platforms exploring advertising and e-commerce integrations [28][29] - The content landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on unique storytelling and audience engagement to differentiate offerings [24][28]

Group 1 - The short drama "Kirin Sends Son" has sparked significant discussion due to its bizarre plot, where the female lead unexpectedly gives birth to 99 children, which is perceived as unrealistic and overly dramatic by viewers [1][6] - The short drama industry has seen explosive growth, with the market size surpassing that of the film box office, projected to reach 50.4 billion yuan in 2024 and exceed 68 billion yuan in 2025, eventually breaking 100 billion yuan by 2027 [7] - Despite the initial success, the short drama industry is showing signs of fatigue, with declining hit rates and a trend towards extreme and unrealistic storylines, indicating a need for innovation and change [7]