Core Views - The overseas market is influenced by geopolitical disturbances driving commodity prices up, while US stocks rise due to favorable technology catalysts and easing economic concerns. The MSCI global index increased by 1.49%, with most regional indices rising, led by South Korea. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 rose by 1.6%, 1.9%, 2.3%, and 4.6% respectively. The 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields changed by -1bp and 7bp to 4.18% and 3.54% respectively. The US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.14, while COMEX gold, silver, and ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.07%, 10.41%, and 3.65% respectively [2][19][22]. Macro Overview - The US PMI shows continued divergence, with no further deterioration in the labor market. The ISM manufacturing PMI for December recorded 47.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, indicating manufacturing contraction. The services PMI rose to 54.4%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by strong holiday demand. Non-farm payrolls for December added 50,000 jobs, below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% [2][3][4]. Policy Insights - The US is increasing control over Venezuelan oil, with Trump announcing that Venezuela will transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of sanctioned high-quality oil to the US, which will be sold at market prices. Trump also indicated he has decided on a new Federal Reserve chairperson, with an announcement expected soon. The Supreme Court has yet to release a ruling on Trump's tariffs, with the next key date being January 14 [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The US stock market is supported by the CES technology conference and improved employment data, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing significant gains. The S&P 500 index's PE ratio is at 29.75, above the historical average, indicating high valuation levels. The index's price-to-earnings ratio relative to the 10-year Treasury yield is 0.82, also above the historical average [23][28][29]. Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, all sectors except utilities saw gains, with consumer discretionary, materials, and industrials leading the way. Notable concept indices such as OLED, 3D printing, and lithium batteries performed well, with increases of 11.5%, 10.1%, and 8.8% respectively [33][29]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 0.4% and 0.9% respectively. The healthcare sector led gains due to favorable policies, while the overall market remains volatile amid changing expectations for interest rate cuts [38][43].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang praises TSMC during his visit to Taipei, emphasizing the strategic partnership and the development of new AI chip platforms [1] Group 1: Partnership and Collaboration - Huang's visit aims to discuss ongoing and upcoming collaborations, including Nvidia's new AI chip platform and advanced CPU, GPU, and switch products designed for AI workloads [1] - Huang expresses gratitude towards TSMC for its contributions to Nvidia's next-generation AI chip platform, Rubin, which features a revolutionary architecture [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Huang states that investing in TSMC stock is a wise decision, highlighting the company's significance in the semiconductor industry [1] - Reports indicate that some of Nvidia's suppliers will halt production of the H20 AI chips specifically designed for the Chinese market [1] Group 3: Product Development - Nvidia has completed the packaging of all chips for the Rubin platform, marking a significant milestone in their product development [1] - Huang clarifies that Nvidia's chips do not contain "backdoors" and discusses ongoing negotiations regarding alternative chip offerings for China [1]

Group 1 - CEO Jensen Huang praised TSMC, stating that anyone looking to invest in the company is "very smart" [1] - TSMC is manufacturing six new products for NVIDIA, including new CPUs and general-purpose processors for advanced computing, particularly AI [1] - TSMC's stock has risen by 15% this year, reflecting its strong market position as the largest chip foundry globally [1] Group 2 - NVIDIA announced its expansion plan in Taiwan, named the "NVIDIA Constellation" project, which includes a new office to accommodate local employees [3] - The company is collaborating with various chip companies, system suppliers, and manufacturers in Taiwan, indicating a busy supply chain and a need for a large number of engineers [3]

Market News - The national economic operation data for January-February 2025 will be released on March 17, 2025, by the National Bureau of Statistics [1] - The February 2025 housing price data for 70 cities will be published on March 17, showing a continued increase in first-tier cities and a slight decrease in second and third-tier cities [2] - The new Loan Prime Rate (LPR) will be announced on March 20, with the February 2025 data indicating a 1-year LPR of 3.1% and a 5-year LPR of 3.6% [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company will optimize the compilation plan for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board indices, effective March 17, 2025 [4] - The Federal Reserve and several central banks will announce interest rate decisions this week, with a 98% probability of maintaining the current rate [5] Sector Matters - NVIDIA's GTC conference will be held from March 17 to March 21, with CEO Jensen Huang set to unveil details of the new AI chip platform "Rubin" on March 19 [7] - FTSE Russell will adjust the constituent stocks of several indices, including the FTSE China A50 Index, effective March 21, 2025 [8] - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to decrease by approximately 320 yuan per ton, with the adjustment window closing on March 19, 2025 [9] Company Events - Tianyuan Pet announced plans to acquire an 89.71% stake in Taotong Technology through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with trading resuming on March 17, 2025 [11] - New Xiangwei intends to acquire 100% of Aisheng Technology through share issuance and cash payment, with trading resuming on March 17, 2025 [12] - Jiaozuo Wanfang plans to acquire 100% of Sanmenxia Aluminum through share issuance, with a share price set at 5.52 yuan [13][14] - Hualing Cable intends to acquire control of Hunan Xingxin Aerospace New Materials Co., aiming to enhance market share in the aerospace sector [15] - Haichuan Intelligent's controlling shareholder will change to Suzhou Zhongjing Zhixin Semiconductor, pending successful share transfer [16] - Yaqi International's largest shareholder will change to Huili Group, with a share transfer price of 22.8444 yuan per share [17] - Wanders is planning a significant event that may lead to a change in control [18] Restricted Stock Unlocking - A total of 27 companies will have restricted shares unlocked this week, amounting to 634 million shares with a total market value of 12.654 billion yuan [20] - The peak unlocking date is March 17, with eight companies unlocking shares worth a total of 6.379 billion yuan [21] New Stock Calendar - Two new stocks, Zhejiang Huaye and Kaifa Technology, will be available for subscription on March 17 and March 18, 2025, respectively [24] Institutional Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates a concentrated catalyst in Q2, with core assets in A-shares expected to recover [27] - Galaxy Securities notes that the market is currently in a rebound phase driven by multiple factors, with a potential upward trend following a brief adjustment [28] - Industrial advantages in A-shares are highlighted by Industrial Securities, noting a divergence in performance between Chinese and U.S. markets [29] - Tianfeng Securities emphasizes the potential for wealth management and investment opportunities due to favorable policies [30]