TSMC (2330.TW) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Ticker**: 2330.TW - **Market Cap**: NT$41.1 trillion / $1.3 trillion - **Current Price**: NT$1,585.00 - **12-Month Price Target**: NT$2,330.00 (47% upside) [1] Key Industry Insights - **AI as Growth Driver**: AI is identified as a multi-year growth engine for TSMC, with silicon demand expected to outpace supply through 2027 due to exponential growth in token consumption [2][20] - **Capacity Tightness**: Anticipated capacity tightness will persist, leading to accelerated revenue and capital expenditures (capex) [2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: TSMC's revenue is projected to grow by 30% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, up from previous estimates of 22% for both years [2][20] - **Capex Forecast**: Total capex is expected to exceed US$150 billion from 2026 to 2028, with 2026E capex raised to US$46 billion and 2027E capex to US$54 billion [3][21] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: Projected GM for 2026 and 2027 is now 60.4% and 60.6%, respectively, indicating structural improvement despite higher capex [4][22] Earnings Estimates - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to reach NT$82.56 in 2026 and NT$105.93 in 2027, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [6][40] - **EBITDA Growth**: EBITDA is projected to grow significantly, with 2026E EBITDA at NT$3,368.47 million and 2027E at NT$4,324.30 million [6][18] Capacity and Technology Developments - **Node Transition**: The transition from 5nm to 3nm nodes is expected to be fully loaded in 2026/2027, driven by AI GPU and ASIC demand [20] - **CoWoS Capacity**: CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity is forecasted to reach 1,275k wafers in 2026 and 2,310k wafers in 2027, representing significant year-over-year growth [25][39] Market Dynamics - **Investor Concerns**: Key debates include the sustainability of 60% GM, the extent of 3nm expansion, and the timing of capex increases [26] - **Geopolitical Stability**: A stable geopolitical environment is deemed necessary to prevent valuation discounts and support earnings visibility [27] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: TSMC is rated as a "Buy" with a revised price target of NT$2,330, supported by strong AI demand, ongoing productivity improvements, and a favorable capex outlook [1][27]

Core Viewpoint - The competition between Broadcom and AMD to challenge Nvidia's dominance in the AI infrastructure market is intensifying, with both companies showing strong stock performance in 2025, particularly AMD with a year-to-date increase of over 70% compared to Broadcom's approximately 45% gain [1]. Summary by Company AMD - AMD is the second-largest player in the GPU market, focusing on the inference segment where cost-per-inference is crucial, and it has a competitive edge against Nvidia's CUDA software [3]. - Microsoft is developing a toolkit to convert CUDA code to AMD's ROCm, enhancing the use of AMD GPUs for inference, and AMD has partnered with OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of GPUs, starting with 1 gigawatt next year, with OpenAI also acquiring a stake in AMD [4]. - In addition to GPUs, AMD is a leading provider of CPUs for computers and data centers, a rapidly growing market where it is gaining market share [5]. Broadcom - Broadcom approaches the AI chip market by designing custom AI ASICs, which are preprogrammed chips optimized for specific tasks, offering better performance and energy efficiency compared to traditional GPUs [6]. - The company has collaborated with Alphabet to develop Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), which have attracted other major data center operators as customers, with potential revenue from three key customers projected to exceed $60 billion by fiscal year 2027, and a $21 billion order from Anthropic for TPUs [7]. - Both AMD and Broadcom are trading at similar valuations, indicating a competitive landscape [8].

Group 1: Broadcom - Broadcom is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI infrastructure, particularly in data centers [2][5] - The company has significant opportunities in custom AI chip development, with potential revenues from three customers estimated between $60 billion to $90 billion by fiscal 2027, and a $10 billion order from a fourth customer [5][6] - Broadcom's recent deal with OpenAI to design and deploy 10 gigawatts of AI chips represents a substantial growth opportunity, equating to approximately $35 billion in chips per gigawatt [6] Group 2: Amazon - Amazon's stock has underperformed recently, but it is expected to rebound and outperform in 2026 due to operational efficiencies driven by advancements in robotics and AI [7][8] - The North American segment of Amazon has shown strong operating leverage, with a 28% increase in adjusted operating income in Q3, despite only an 11% increase in sales [9] - AWS is beginning to accelerate its growth, with a 20% revenue increase in Q3, and a significant $38 billion cloud computing deal with OpenAI is expected to enhance its data center capabilities [11][12]

台积电（2330）受惠英伟达、AMD、博通等大客户订单涌入，法人看好今年AI相关营收将倍数成长， 蓄势挑战新台币兆元大关之余，明年持续看增，连续三年实现业绩突破，助力台积电2026年美元营收持 续飞越千亿美元关卡，订单能见度直达2028年。 台积电一贯不评论法人预估数字与单一客户。法人指出，台积电在2024年AI需求起飞期，当年度AI相 关营收首度突破百亿美元，立下营运新里程碑。 台积电提到，与客户及客户的客户密切合作，并规划产能。台积电目前拥有逾500个不同的客户，随着 制程技术复杂性增加，公司与客户接触启动专案的前置时间至少要提早二至三年。 台积电定义，AI相关需求包含AI加速器在资料中心执行AI训练和推论功能的AI GPUs、AI ASICs和首度 纳入高频宽记忆体（HBM）控制器等，看好AI加速器营收贡献2025年会再成长一倍。 技术应用上，台积电最先进的2nm已如期量产，公司看好随着智慧手机、高速运算和AI应用推动下， 2026年2nm业务将快速成长。 在上述基础上，法人分析，台积电客户群AI新创应用持续遍地开花，让台积电订单满手，估计2026年 AI相关营收可望突破400亿美元，站稳新台币兆元大关 ...

Core Insights - Broadcom Inc. is recognized as a trending AI stock, with KeyBanc maintaining an Overweight rating and a price target of $420 ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report [1][2] Financial Performance Expectations - KeyBanc expects Broadcom to report revenue of $17.5 billion and earnings per share of $1.87 for F4Q25, slightly above consensus estimates of $17.4 billion and $1.86 respectively [3] - The anticipated strong results are attributed to robust demand for artificial intelligence in networking and AI ASICs [2][3] Growth Drivers - Broadcom is projected to maintain a 100% market share in Google's TPU through 2026, alongside the ramp-up of Meta's AI ASIC, MTIA v2, which are key growth drivers for the company [3] - Investor focus will be on the $10 billion revenue from Broadcom's fourth ASIC customer, AI outlook, ASIC backlog updates, and potential additions to its XPU customer pipeline [4] Strategic Positioning - Broadcom is positioned uniquely in the AI revolution due to its custom chip offerings and networking assets, which enhances its competitive advantage in the market [4]

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the **semiconductor industry** and its current cycle, particularly the impact of **AI** on growth, pricing, and valuation [1][10]. Key Metrics - Five key metrics are identified to assess the semiconductor cycle: - **Revenue** - **Inventory** - **Margins** - **Demand** - **Valuation** [2][10]. Core Insights - **AI Impact**: AI is driving significant changes in the semiconductor sector, leading to: - Accelerated growth through higher pricing and valuation. - An expected increase in semiconductor revenue growth from a historical **7% CAGR** (2000-2020) to **10% CAGR** (2025-2028E) due to AI [3][34]. - **Revenue Peaks**: Semiconductor revenue has reached a new peak of **$731 billion** in 2025, which is **25%** above the previous peak of **$574 billion** in 2022. This growth is primarily attributed to a **45%** increase in pricing since 2022, marking the highest increase in **30 years** [4][11]. - **Inventory Levels**: Current semiconductor inventory is **60%** below typical peak levels, indicating potential for further growth as units are **11%** below the previous peak [4][58]. - **Margins**: Overall margins are currently below peak levels, with notable exceptions like NVDA, AVGO, and NXPI being close to their peaks. The average gross margin is **59%**, with operating margins at **40%** [5][42]. - **Demand Trends**: Demand is reported to be solid or improving in **87%** of semiconductor categories, with AI providing a substantial tailwind. The demand is expected to remain strong as long as the AI cycle continues [5][61]. Valuation Insights - **High Valuation**: The semiconductor sector is currently trading at a **31X NTM P/E**, which is a **34% premium** to the S&P 500. This elevated valuation is justified by the ongoing AI investment cycle [6][62]. - **Profitability Comparison**: The semiconductor industry boasts gross margins above **50%** and operating margins above **25%**, significantly higher than the S&P 500 averages of **30%-35%** and **10%-15%**, respectively [66][69]. Growth Projections - **Future Growth**: The semiconductor sales are projected to grow to approximately **$980 billion** by 2028, driven largely by AI infrastructure investments [34]. - **AI Data Center Market**: AI data center semiconductor sales are expected to rise from less than **5%** of overall sales in 2022 to about **40%** by 2028 [36]. Company Recommendations - **Top Picks**: The top pick for investment is **MCHP**, with other recommended stocks including **AVGO**, **ADI**, **MU**, **NXPI**, and **TXN** [7][10]. Additional Considerations - **Market Dynamics**: The analysis indicates that while the current upturn has lasted about ten quarters, it is still below the average duration of prior cycles, suggesting potential for continued growth [14]. - **Sector Comparison**: The semiconductor sector is expected to grow faster than the S&P 500 across various time frames, indicating a robust investment opportunity [70]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the semiconductor industry's resilience and growth potential, particularly driven by advancements in AI technology.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating on the Asia AI semi and server supply chain, with all top picks rated as Buy [3][7][25]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on AI semiconductors and servers, despite a worsened risk-reward scenario compared to April 2025. The demand, supply, and catalysts are expected to favor AI growth into 2026 [3][7][30]. - Hyperscalers are increasingly optimistic about AI, with rising capital expenditure (capex) plans projected to grow by 55% year-on-year in 2025-26 [7][10][30]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity expansion appears more disciplined than in the past, which may impact customer behaviors and the GPU/ASIC supply chain dynamics [6][30][39]. Summary by Sections AI Semi Forecast - The AI semi revenue forecast for 2026 has been raised to 55% year-on-year growth, up from approximately 30% previously, with an introduction of a 20% growth forecast for 2027 [8][39]. - nVidia is expected to maintain a 60% CoWoS capacity booking at TSMC in 2026, which may hinder ASIC growth [8][41]. Server Forecast - The forecast for nVidia's GB rack shipments has been raised from 20.1k units to 22.2k units for 2025, with an introduction of a 46k unit estimate for 2026 [9][30]. - Global server revenue growth is projected at 53% and 28% year-on-year for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with AI server revenue growth rates at 76% and 40% [9][10]. Cloud Capex Uplift - The consensus for the top five US CSPs' capex growth has been revised up from 20% to 55% year-on-year, aligning with the expected growth in nVidia's datacenter sales [10][13]. - Policies such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) are expected to incentivize CSPs to invest more in capex [10][13][30]. Stocks for Action - Key stocks recommended for action include TSMC, Hon Hai, Quanta, Wiwynn, and others, all rated as Buy, with significant upside potential noted [25][20][29]. - The report highlights that AI ODMs are attractive in valuations, with specific recommendations for Wiwynn, Wistron, and Quanta based on their expected performance in the upcoming quarters [20][29]. Structural Growth Trends - The report identifies structural growth trends in PCB/CCL, power, cable, and thermal solutions, with significant upgrades expected in components and architecture from 2H26 to 2027 [21][23][27].

Core Viewpoint - Meta Platforms and Broadcom are positioned to potentially surpass Apple's market value of $3.1 trillion within five years, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms owns three of the four most popular social media platforms: Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, making it a valuable advertising partner and the second largest ad tech company globally [4] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance consumer engagement, with time spent on Facebook increasing by 7% and on Instagram by 6% over the past six months [5] - The number of advertisers using AI creative tools rose by 30% in the first quarter, and AI has improved ad targeting for Reels, increasing conversion rates by 5% [6][7] - Meta's market value is currently $1.7 trillion, requiring an 88% stock gain to reach $3.2 trillion, implying annual returns of 13.5% over the next five years [6] - The smart glasses market, which Meta dominates, tripled in size last year and is expected to grow over 60% annually through 2029, with potential to replace smartphones [8] - Wall Street estimates Meta's earnings will grow at 15% annually over the next three to five years, making a market value increase to $3.2 trillion plausible [9] Group 2: Broadcom - Broadcom is a leader in infrastructure software and semiconductor solutions, particularly in Wi-Fi chipsets and Ethernet switch chips, with increasing demand due to AI workloads [10] - The company is the leading supplier of custom AI accelerators (ASICs) and develops AI ASICs for major clients including Apple, Google, and Meta Platforms, with the market for AI ASICs expected to grow at 34% annually through 2030 [11] - Broadcom's current market value is $1.4 trillion, needing a 129% increase to reach $3.2 trillion, which implies annual returns of 18% over the next five years [6][12] - Despite challenges, Broadcom has consistently beaten earnings estimates, suggesting potential underestimation of future growth, with AI chip revenue projected to quadruple by 2027 [13]

Group 1 - TSMC reported a record revenue of $30.07 billion in the second quarter, with AI-related revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time in a single quarter, indicating strong growth potential for the year [1] - The company expects AI accelerator contributions to revenue to double compared to last year, projecting AI-related revenue to reach approximately NT$434.1 billion in 2024 and NT$868.3 billion in 2025 [1] - In the second quarter, revenue from A-chip manufacturing and advanced packaging was approximately $8.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.67 times, while high-performance computing (HPC) chip revenue was $9.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] Group 2 - TSMC's chairman emphasized that despite external factors like tariffs and currency fluctuations, there has been no change in customer behavior, with continued strong demand for AI [2] - The company raised its revenue growth forecast for the year to approximately 30% due to strong demand for advanced processes and growth in HPC platforms [2] - The rapid development of AI applications is expected to drive long-term demand, with significant growth in the processing of text tokens for large language models and sovereign AI needs [2]

Group 1: ASIC Chip Market Outlook - Bank of America reports strong and sustained growth in the ASIC chip supply chain due to widespread adoption of AI ASICs by CSPs [1] - Despite extended project cycles, the demand for current generation products has created a historical super demand cycle for the global ASIC supply chain [1] - Google and Amazon are expected to maintain annual ASIC chip production above 1 million units, with Meta and Microsoft gradually catching up [1] Group 2: MPl's Growth and Market Position - MPl, a key supplier of probe cards for ASIC chips, is benefiting from strong customer demand, with MEMS probe card capacity expected to expand from 600,000 units per month to nearly 1 million by Q3 2025 [1][2] - The target price for MPl has been raised to NT$1050 based on a projected P/E ratio of 28 times for 2026 [2] Group 3: Aspeed's Business Performance - Aspeed is showing strong performance in its BMC business, with the AST2700 expected to be adopted by the Rubin platform, leading to reduced competitive pressure [2] - Earnings per share estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 5% and 12% respectively, with the target price increased to NT$6250 [2][3] - Aspeed's revenue is projected to reach NT$2.2 billion in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 66% [3] Group 4: Alchip's Opportunities and Risks - Alchip is seeing increased collaboration opportunities with key customers as CSP projects advance, with a higher likelihood of mass production for Trainium 3 [4] - The target price for Alchip has been raised to NT$3900 based on a rolling valuation period extending to mid-2027 [4] - Upward risks for Alchip include faster mass production of non-AWS projects and improved profit margins due to relaxed restrictions on China [4]