极智嘉 20250915 摘要 吉时佳是全球领先的仓储履约 AMR 解决方案提供商，2024 年全球市场 份额排名第二，仓储履约场景市场份额第一，业务覆盖 40 余国，海外 营收占比超 70%，具备全球影响力。 2024 年吉时佳营收 24 亿元，上半年营收和订单增长约 30%。虽亏损 8 亿元，但调整后亏损仅 1 亿元。预计 2025 年归母净利润转正至 1 亿 元，未来两年预计达 3 亿和 6 亿人民币。 仓储机器人解决方案市场高速增长，年增速 30%，预计 2029 年市场规 模将超 1,500 亿元。若吉时佳保持 10%市场份额，营收有望达 150 亿 元，对应净利润 20-30 亿元，市值增长空间显著。 吉时佳正扩展至具身智能领域，成立子公司并发布仓储拣选机械臂及通 用大脑架构，解决仓储场景复杂问题，提升成长空间和估值水平。 吉时佳营收主要来自 AMR 解决方案（占比 91%，毛利率 39%）和工业 搬运（占比 9%，毛利率 12%），逐步缩减 RaaS 业务。2021-2024 年营收复合增速 45%，2025 上半年营收同比增长 23%。 Q&A 吉时佳公司在 AI 商业化闭环方面的表现如何？ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the company, 极智嘉-W (02590), is expected to see significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 3.3 billion, 4.4 billion, and 5.7 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 33%, and 29% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 90 million, 340 million, and 620 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 312, 85, and 47 times [1] - The company is recognized for its leading market position and robust performance growth, benefiting from the increasing demand in the AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) industry and its significant business advantages [1] Group 2 - The company has established a subsidiary focused on embodied intelligence, targeting the strategic goal of "general warehousing robots" [2] - In August, the company launched a new general mechanical arm operation technology solution and the world's first embodied intelligence base model, Geek+ Brain, specifically designed for warehousing scenarios [2] - The company aims to address long-standing challenges in warehouse automation, such as precise picking of a large number of SKUs, thereby expanding its technological scope from AMR to intelligent applications of robotic arms [2]

未来，极智嘉将重点在具身智能研发、全球市场拓展、ESG永续发展及人才培育四大方向持续深耕，进 一步巩固业界领导地位，推进战略目标的实现。据灼识咨询报告指出，全球AMR解决方案市场规模预 计于2029年达到人民币1621亿元，2024至2029年复合年增长率超过33%，而仓储自动化渗透率更将在 2029年突破20%。与此同时，中国"人工智能+"行动方案持续释放政策红利，将加速AI在制造与物流场 景的规模化商业应用。面对高速扩张的市场与政策助力，极智嘉凭借既有的技术与客户优势，加上具身 智能业务这一新增长引擎，有望开启长期可持续的价值成长通道。 极智嘉(股票代码：02590.HK)近日宣布其截至2025年6月30日止六个月的未经审计中期业绩。报告显 示，公司收入同比增长31%至人民币10.25亿元，毛利同比增长43.1%至人民币3.6亿元，亏损净额大幅收 窄超90%，经调整EBITDA(非国际财务报告准则计量)转正至人民币1162万元，彰显强劲发展势头和商 业化能力，逼近盈利拐点。业务方面，公司实现订单人民币17.60亿元，同比增长30.1%，并斩获超亿元 大订单，同时在大客户复购、新客户、新行业及新渠道拓展方面 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company, 极智嘉, is well-positioned to capitalize on the structural increase in the penetration rate of Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR) in warehouse fulfillment, with a projected revenue CAGR of 34% from 2024 to 2027 and significant profitability expected from 2026 [1][2] - The global AMR solutions market is anticipated to grow from 39 billion RMB in 2024 to 162 billion RMB by 2029, driven by an increase in AMR penetration from 8% to 20% of total warehouse automation solutions revenue [2] - 极智嘉 holds a 9% market share in warehouse fulfillment revenue in 2024, ranking first globally, attributed to its modular design that allows easy integration into existing customer systems, minimizing disruption during upgrades [2][3] Group 2 - The cost-saving and efficiency improvements achieved by 极智嘉's clients, such as YesAsia, highlight the company's competitive edge, with YesAsia saving approximately 10 million USD and improving warehouse processing capacity by 150% after implementing AMR solutions [3] - The company is considered a rare asset in the Hong Kong stock market, with a target price of 26.7 HKD based on a 7.7x 2026E P/S ratio, reflecting a premium valuation due to its rapid penetration in the global warehouse automation market [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Geekplus (2590 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 26.7, representing a potential upside of 42.3% from the current price of HKD 18.76 [1][3]. Core Insights - Geekplus is positioned as a rising star in the global AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) market for warehouse automation, with a unique presence in the Hong Kong market. The company has over 800 end customers across 40 countries, with an expected overseas revenue contribution of 72% in 2024 [1]. - The AMR solutions market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from RMB 39 billion in 2024 to RMB 162 billion by 2029, driven by an increase in AMR penetration from 8% to 20% of total warehouse automation solutions revenue [7]. - Geekplus holds a 9% market share in warehouse fulfillment revenue, ranking first globally, attributed to its modular design solutions that integrate easily into existing customer systems, minimizing operational disruptions [7]. - The report highlights the cost-saving and efficiency improvements experienced by Geekplus customers, exemplified by YesAsia, which saved approximately USD 10 million in costs and improved order accuracy to 99.99% after implementing Geekplus AMR solutions [7]. Financial Summary - The forecasted revenue for Geekplus is expected to grow from RMB 2,143 million in FY23A to RMB 5,788 million by FY27E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% from 2024 to 2027 [2][8]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive starting in FY26E, with estimates of RMB 112 million in FY25E and RMB 673.5 million in FY27E [2][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin improvement from 17.7% in FY22A to 39.0% by FY27E, indicating enhanced profitability [9].

机构：国信证券 研究员：吴双/杜松阳 投资建议：公司设立了具身智能公司，提升机械手拣货、通用机器人制造等能力，未来公司智能化优 势、规模效应有望逐步显现。综合考虑行业景气度、公司在AMR 全球龙头地位、盈利持续好转态势， 我们预计公司25-27 年归母净利润为1.06/3.03/5.20 亿港元， 对应EPS 为0.08/0.23/0.39 港元。给予极智嘉 一年期合理估值为19.7-22.1 港元，首次覆盖，给予"优于大市"评级。 AMR 解决方案远期市场规模超千亿，增速超过30%。仓储自动化解决方案是使各种物流操作(如存取、 搬、拣及分)自动化的集成系统，包含多种技术和形式，实现了以自动化方案替代重复性人力劳作。其 将硬件和软件无缝结合，涵盖一系列技术，包括AMR、AS/RS、输送机和分拣机、AMR。其中AMR 配 备先进的自主航技术，可用于各种操作任务，包括储、拣和分拣。根据灼识咨询资料，2024 年，AMR 在全球仓储自动化市场的渗透率约8%，2029AMR 渗透率将达到20.2%，2024-2029 年AMR 全球的市场 规模有望从390 亿元增长至1620 亿元，CAGR 约33%。 AI 技术架 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target valuation range of HKD 19.7 to 22.1 [5][47]. Core Insights - The company is the largest global provider of AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) solutions, with a market share of 9.0% in the global warehouse fulfillment AMR solutions market [1][9]. - The company expects a significant reduction in losses for the first half of 2025, projecting a net loss of HKD 0.1 to 0.2 billion, a decrease of approximately 90% to 95% year-on-year [1][25]. - The AMR solutions market is anticipated to grow from HKD 39 billion in 2024 to HKD 162 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 33% [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015 and headquartered in Beijing, has expanded its operations to over 40 countries, serving around 800 global clients, including major corporations like Walmart and Toyota [1][9]. - The company has developed a comprehensive technology platform, Robot Matrix, and has a strong focus on integrating AI technology with AMR and robotics solutions to enhance user stickiness [3][15]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase from HKD 7.9 billion in 2021 to HKD 24 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 44.2% [25]. - The gross margin improved from 10.16% in 2021 to 34.75% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [27]. - The company forecasts revenues of approximately HKD 32.5 billion, HKD 43.85 billion, and HKD 56.98 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 1.06 billion, HKD 3.03 billion, and HKD 5.20 billion [39][40]. Market Trends - The AMR solutions market is expected to see a penetration rate increase from 8% in 2024 to 20.2% by 2029, indicating strong growth potential [2]. - The company has established a new subsidiary focused on humanoid robotics, aiming to leverage its existing technology and market presence to expand into this emerging field [32]. Investment Considerations - The report highlights the company's strong position in the AMR market, ongoing improvements in profitability, and the potential for significant revenue growth driven by market demand and technological advancements [4][47]. - The company has a robust pipeline of innovative solutions tailored to various warehouse operations, enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [19][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the surge of robotics companies seeking IPOs in the Hong Kong market, driven by a favorable market environment and new listing regulations that allow unprofitable tech companies to go public [2][5] - In the first half of the year, 13 robotics companies submitted IPO applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a notable listing from Geek+ (极智嘉) which raised 2.712 billion HKD, marking the largest H-share IPO for a robotics company to date [3][5] - The Hong Kong market has seen a significant increase in IPO activities, with 42 projects completed in the first half of the year, raising over 107 billion HKD, a 22% increase compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] Group 2 - Most of the robotics companies that have applied for IPOs are currently unprofitable, with only a few, such as Stone Technology and Zhaowei Electromechanical, reporting profits [3][4] - Geek+ reported revenues of 1.452 billion, 2.143 billion, and 2.409 billion CNY for 2022 to 2024, respectively, but also incurred net losses of 1.567 billion, 1.127 billion, and 832 million CNY during the same period [3] - The robotics industry is in a developmental phase characterized by high R&D costs and rapid product iteration, making short-term profitability challenging [4] Group 3 - The new listing rule (Chapter 18C) by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange facilitates the listing of unprofitable tech companies, allowing them to apply for IPOs based on market capitalization and R&D conditions [5] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions and supportive regulations in Hong Kong provide a favorable environment for robotics companies to secure funding through IPOs [5][6] - Companies in the robotics sector are advised to seek initial funding through angel or venture capital investments before considering an IPO, especially if they are still in the early stages of product development [6]

Group 1: Recent IPOs - Custom consumer goods manufacturer Maikris successfully listed on NASDAQ, raising approximately $6.5 million by issuing 1.625 million shares, with a market capitalization of $48.96 million [1] - Hong Kong construction subcontractor Masonglory successfully listed on NASDAQ, raising $6 million by issuing 1.5 million shares, with a market capitalization of $70.42 million [2] - Financial printing service provider Rich Sparkle successfully listed on NASDAQ, raising $5 million by issuing 1.25 million shares, with a market capitalization of $45.88 million [3] - Pan-Asian life insurance company FWD Group successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 3.471 billion by issuing 91.3421 million shares, with a market capitalization of HKD 48.362 billion [4] - Shenzhen-based motor control semiconductor supplier FENGCHUANG Technology successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 2.259 billion by issuing 18.7444 million shares, with a market capitalization of HKD 14.888 billion [5] - Beijing-based AMR warehouse robot solution provider Geekplus successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 2.712 billion by issuing 161 million shares, with a market capitalization of HKD 19.223 billion [6] - Beijing-based communication service provider Xunzhong Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 413 million by issuing 30.44 million shares, with a market capitalization of HKD 1.785 billion [7] - Wuhan-based private dental service provider Dazhong Dental successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 217 million by issuing 10.8618 million shares, with a market capitalization of HKD 1.022 billion [8] - Hunan-based precision manufacturing solution provider Lens Technology successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 4.768 billion by issuing 262 million shares, with a market capitalization of HKD 102.6 billion [9] Group 2: Upcoming IPOs - Chinese fast-food brand Laoxiangji has re-filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for a main board listing, with a market share of 0.9% in the Chinese fast-food industry for 2024 [10] - Lithium-ion battery separator manufacturer Xingyuan Material has filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, being the first in China to master dry unidirectional stretching technology for battery separators, with a global market share ranking first by shipment volume in 2024 [11] Group 3: Market Insights - Despite the announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. on multiple countries, U.S. stock markets have shown resilience, focusing more on corporate earnings and technological innovation rather than tariff changes, supported by stable economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts [12]

Group 1 - Zhongyuan Expressway's wholly-owned subsidiary, Bingyuan Investment Holdings, successfully listed its investment in Geek+ (stock code: 02590.HK) on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking it as the "first global stock of autonomous mobile robots in warehousing" [1] - Bingyuan Investment holds approximately 6.1815 million shares of Geek+ through the Sailin Huihong Fund, which is expected to yield good investment returns for Zhongyuan Expressway based on the closing price of HKD 17.7 per share on the listing day [1] Group 2 - Geek+ is recognized as a national-level manufacturing single champion and is a global leader in the smart logistics robot sector, maintaining the top market share in the global AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) solutions for warehousing for six consecutive years [3] - The company's AMR solutions are widely applied across various industries, including retail, manufacturing, and logistics, serving over 800 global clients, including many Fortune 500 companies, and covering more than 40 countries and regions [3] - Geek+ demonstrates strong growth momentum with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% from 2021 to 2024 and has established a leadership position in high-end markets in Europe and the United States [3] - The global AMR market is entering a rapid development phase, and the listing will provide Geek+ with a broader development platform [3] Group 3 - Bingyuan Investment was established in 2008 with a registered capital of 700 million yuan, fully funded by Zhongyuan Expressway, and is one of the early domestic investment institutions operating in a market-oriented manner [3] - The investment platform focuses on equity investment in strategic emerging industries, particularly in technology innovation enterprises [3] - Zhongyuan Expressway plans to continue leveraging Bingyuan Investment's professional operations to contribute to the development of new productive forces [3]