中金研报指出，英伟达(NVDA.US)2026财年第三季度收入570亿美元，同比增长62%，非通用会计准则 毛利率73.6%，同比下降1.4百分点；归母净利润318亿美元，同比增长59%，业绩超出市场预期，符合 该行预期，中金认为原因是Blackwell产品需求强劲，GB300系列产品出货顺利。由于市场竞争领先地位 持续，中金上调英伟达2026财年收入3%至2,136亿美元，基本维持2026财年非通用会计准则净利润预 测。上调2027年收入、非通用会计准则净利润16%、13%至3,415亿及1,911亿美元。当前股价交易于 2027年财年23.9倍市盈率，维持"跑赢行业"评级，上调目标价14%至228美元，对应2027年29.2倍市盈 率，上行空间22%。 ...

格隆汇11月21日｜中金发表报告指，英伟达2026财年第三季收入570亿美元，按年增62%；Non-GAAP 毛利率 73.6%，按年下滑1.4个百分点；净利润318亿美元，按年增59%。业绩超出市场预期，符合该行 预期，该行认为原因是Blackwell产品需求强劲，GB300系列产品出货顺利。由于市场竞争领先地位持 续，上调英伟达2026财年收入预测3%至2136亿美元，基本维持2026财年Non-GAAP净利润预测；上调 2027财年收入及Non-GAAP净利润预测各16%、13%至3415亿和1911亿美元，维持"跑赢行业"评级，上 调目标价14%至228美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's next-generation platform, Rubin, is expected to enter mass production by mid-2026, promising significant performance improvements [1][4] - The company's customer base is diversifying, with sovereign customer revenue projected to double by 2025 [1][6] - Strong demand from hyperscale data centers and non-traditional customers will drive Nvidia's explosive growth in 2026 [1][8] Group 1: Next-Generation Platform - Nvidia's next-generation platform, Rubin, is in early manufacturing stages and is anticipated to achieve mass production by mid-2026 [4] - All six chips that comprise the Rubin platform have begun trial production, with management optimistic about improvements in workload performance, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness compared to the Blackwell platform [4][5] Group 2: Customer Diversification - Nvidia's growth narrative is becoming increasingly diversified, moving away from reliance on a few hyperscale cloud service providers [6] - Currently, large cloud service providers account for 50% of data center revenue, indicating the rise of other customer segments [6] - Revenue from sovereign AI projects is expected to exceed $20 billion in 2025, more than doubling from 2024, highlighting a new and substantial market opportunity [6] Group 3: Dual Drivers of Growth - Nvidia's potential for significant growth in 2026 is driven by both traditional advantages and emerging opportunities [8] - Increased spending from hyperscale cloud service providers and demand from non-traditional customers, such as sovereign AI projects, are expected to contribute to revenue and profit growth [8] Group 4: Short-Term Challenges and Long-Term Logic - Despite facing uncertainties in the Chinese market due to export restrictions, Nvidia is actively communicating with the U.S. government to secure sales approvals for Blackwell-based products [9][10] - If uncertainties are resolved, Nvidia anticipates third-quarter H20 product shipments in China could reach between $2 billion to $5 billion, providing additional growth momentum for 2026 [9] - The long-term growth logic for Nvidia remains strong, with 2026 projected as a critical year for explosive growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating on Nvidia, expressing extreme optimism for the company's performance in 2026, despite short-term downward pressure on stock prices following the second-quarter earnings report [1] Group 1: Future Earnings Projections - Goldman Sachs sets Nvidia's 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate significantly above Wall Street consensus, approximately 10% higher, supported by three core reasons [1] - The next-generation platform "Rubin" is expected to enter mass production by mid-2026, with all six chips in the platform currently in trial production, indicating a substantial performance and efficiency improvement over the previous generation [2] Group 2: Customer Diversification - Nvidia's customer base is diversifying, reducing reliance on a few large cloud service providers (CSPs), with large CSPs currently accounting for 50% of data center revenue, highlighting the rise of other customer segments [3] - Revenue from sovereign AI projects is projected to exceed $20 billion in 2025, more than doubling from 2024, reflecting a growing demand for autonomous AI infrastructure globally [3] Group 3: Growth Drivers - Nvidia's potential for significant growth in 2026 is driven by increased spending from large-scale cloud service providers and demand from non-traditional customers, creating a "dual-driver" scenario for future revenue and profit growth [4] - Despite short-term challenges, Nvidia's long-term growth logic remains strong, with 2026 anticipated as a key year for explosive growth [6]

Group 1 - Nvidia's Q2 financial report shows that data center revenue has declined for two consecutive quarters, with Blackwell product revenue increasing by 17% quarter-over-quarter, while data center computing revenue decreased by 1% due to a $4 billion drop in H20 sales [1] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang indicated that China could present a $50 billion business opportunity this year, with an expected annual growth rate of approximately 50% in the Chinese market, although no H20 chips were sold to Chinese customers in Q2 [1] - Concerns have been raised regarding potential security vulnerabilities in Nvidia's H20 chip, as noted by the People's Daily [1] Group 2 - Huaxia Securities suggests that domestic AI computing chip companies, such as Huawei's Ascend and Cambricon, may accelerate their development due to factors like the US chip security legislation and H20 discussions, indicating a clearer long-term growth trajectory for domestic chips [1] - According to招商证券, local GPU companies are expected to see continuous year-over-year sales growth by 2025, with a positive long-term outlook for the semiconductor sector, particularly in AI computing and self-controllable attributes [1] - Semiconductor industry segments, including GPU/ASIC/Switch and supporting chips, advanced manufacturing/storage, upstream equipment/materials/EDA, and PCB/CCL, are anticipated to experience significant growth [1] Group 3 - Semiconductor company SMIC is expected to see increased reliance on its advanced process production lines for domestic computing chips, with potential for value reassessment as advanced process capacity and yield improve [1]