Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - In the short term, there are still fluctuations in the price spreads among COMEX copper, LME copper, and SHFE copper, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine the reasonable range of the spreads. The extremely high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be significantly affected. The price of SHFE copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend still depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes. Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [3] Group 3: Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,040 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Group 4: Copper Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2509C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the SHFE copper main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, and the US dollar index hovering at a low level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, over - increase in the anti - involution event, and extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX due to US copper tariff policy adjustments [5][7] Group 6: Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 78,040 yuan/ton with no daily change; SHFE copper continuous - one is 78,040 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan (-1.13%); SHFE copper continuous - three is 78,010 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME 3M copper is 9,803 US dollars/ton, up 40.5 US dollars (0.41%); the SHFE - LME ratio is 8.15, up 0.01 (0.12%) [6] Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,565 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan (-0.91%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,985 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan (-0.15%); Guangdong Southern Reserve is 78,890 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 79,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (-0.19%) [8] Group 7: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt Data - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipt is 18,083 tons, up 251 tons (1.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipt is 3,313 tons, down 1,354 tons (-29.01%) [14] Inventory Data - The total LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons (0.18%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 253,431 tons, up 9,650 tons (3.96%) [16][18] Group 8: Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 161.95 yuan/ton, up 151.48 yuan (-48.33%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.75 US dollars/ton with no daily change [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution trend affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. The rise in non - ferrous metals is likely due to demand - side factors rather than issues with the US dollar index, gold, or supply. The development of high - quality projects and the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may have a significant impact on copper and zinc. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are potential mid - term risks as the price increase has not significantly driven up positions, and there is no need for large - scale capacity optimization on the supply side [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors for copper. The利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the reduction of LME inventory levels, the low - level hovering of the US dollar index, and the positive impact of anti - involution on the non - ferrous metal sector. The利空 factors are the uncertainty of tariff policies, the potential reduction of global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,590 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 79,590 yuan/ton with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract is 79,590 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan (- 0.19%); the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract is 79,560 yuan/ton with no change; the LME 3M copper is 9,933.5 US dollars/ton, up 35.5 US dollars (0.36%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.14, up 0.01 (0.12%) [6][8]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Southern Reserve, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 79,790 yuan/ton, 79,875 yuan/ton, 79,630 yuan/ton, and 79,940 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 35 yuan (0.04%), 170 yuan (0.21%), 120 yuan (0.15%), and 110 yuan (0.14%) [10]. Copper Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 15,535 tons, down 9,972 tons (- 39.1%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 4,667 tons with no change [15]. - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 124,825 tons, down 25 tons (- 0.02%); European inventory is 28,775 tons, down 475 tons (- 1.62%); Asian inventory is 13,150 tons, down 82,925 tons (- 86.31%); North American inventory is 0 tons [17]. - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 245,508 tons, up 6,073 tons (2.54%) [20]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 247.47 yuan/ton, down 285.72 yuan (- 746.98%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42.9 US dollars/ton, up 0.27 US dollars (- 0.63%) [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The positive macro - expectations brought by anti - involution have pushed up short - term copper prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.70%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 23.0% [2]. 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, lower LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5]. 3.4 Nanhua's View on Copper Price Trends - Anti - involution affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are hidden risks in the medium - term rise. The increase in copper prices has not significantly driven up positions, and there is no need for large - scale capacity optimization on the supply side [6]. 3.5 Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,770 yuan/ton (up 1,330 yuan, 1.7%), the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), the LME copper 3M is 9,794.5 US dollars/ton (up 116.5 US dollars, 1.2%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 (down 0.03, - 0.37%) [7]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of various copper spots have increased. For example, Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 79,555 yuan/ton (up 895 yuan, 1.14%), and the price increases of other spots range from 0.71% to 1.33%. The spot premiums have also increased, with the increase ranging from 9.09% to 35.29% [10]. 3.6 Copper Scrap Spread and Warehouse Receipts - **Scrap Spread**: The current scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,478.51 yuan/ton (up 513.08 yuan, 53.15%), and the reasonable scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,496.7 yuan/ton (up 10.45 yuan, 0.7%) [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and international copper warehouse receipts have decreased. For example, the total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 38,239 tons (down 3,900 tons, - 9.26%), and the total international copper warehouse receipts are 4,667 tons (down 2,708 tons, - 36.72%) [16]. 3.7 Copper Inventory Data - **LME Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons (down 100 tons, - 0.08%), with different changes in different regions. The registered warehouse receipts are 108,100 tons (down 2,850 tons, - 2.57%), and the cancelled warehouse receipts are 14,075 tons (up 2,875 tons, 25.67%) [18]. - **COMEX Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 242,837 tons (up 8,633 tons, 3.69%) [21]. 3.8 Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit is - 127.28 yuan/ton (down 16.74 yuan, - 11.62%), and the copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The positive macro - expectations brought by anti - involution have pushed up short - term copper prices [3]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 10.13%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 14.3% [2]. - In the copper futures market, the latest prices of沪铜主力,沪铜连一,沪铜连三, and伦铜3M are 79,700 yuan/ton, 79,770 yuan/ton, 79,750 yuan/ton, and 9,794.5 dollars/ton respectively, with daily increases of 1,290 yuan, 1,330 yuan, 1,390 yuan, and 116.5 dollars, and daily increase rates of 1.65%, 1.7%, 1.77%, and 1.2% respectively. The沪伦比is 8.15, with a daily decrease of 0.03 and a daily decrease rate of 0.37% [8]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of沪铜主力期货 contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of沪铜主力期货 contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, reduction in LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17th. However, the strong US retail data on July 17th and positive tariff expectations on July 18th boosted copper prices. The decline in the gold - copper ratio also indicated a change in investors' risk preferences. In the next week, copper prices may continue the strong trend of the last two trading days of last week, showing a slight upward trend. The US tariff policies with Indonesia and Japan are also beneficial to demand. The durable goods orders data on July 25th is worth attention [6]. 3.5 Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,660 yuan/ton, 78,635 yuan/ton, 78,540 yuan/ton, and 79,760 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 640 yuan, 620 yuan, 550 yuan, and 1,050 yuan, and daily increase rates of 0.82%, 0.79%, 0.71%, and 1.33% respectively. The升贴水of Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 220 yuan/ton, 115 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 45 yuan, 30 yuan, 5 yuan, and 20 yuan, and daily increase rates of 25.71%, 35.29%, 9.09%, and 19.05% respectively [11]. 3.6 Scrap - to - Refined Copper Spread - The current scrap - to - refined copper spread (tax - included) is 1,478.51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 513.08 yuan and a daily increase rate of 53.15%. The reasonable scrap - to - refined copper spread (tax - included) is 1,496.7 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.45 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.7%. The price advantage (tax - included) is - 18.19 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 502.63 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 96.51%. Similar data is also provided for the non - tax - included situation [14]. 3.7 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **SHFE Warehouse Receipts**: The total沪铜仓单is 38,239 tons, with a daily decrease of 3,900 tons and a daily decrease rate of 9.26%. The total international copper warehouse receipt is 4,667 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,708 tons and a daily decrease rate of 36.72% [17]. - **LME Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, with a daily decrease of 100 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.08%. The registered LME copper warehouse receipt is 108,100 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,850 tons and a daily decrease rate of 2.57%. The cancelled LME copper warehouse receipt is 14,075 tons, with a daily increase of 2,875 tons and a daily increase rate of 25.67% [19]. - **COMEX Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 242,837 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,633 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.69%. The registered COMEX copper warehouse receipt is 107,368 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,944 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.76%. The cancelled COMEX copper warehouse receipt is 135,469 tons, with a weekly increase of 217 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.16% [22][23]. 3.8 Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 127.28 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.74 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 11.62%. The copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 dollars/ton, with no daily change [23].