Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the performance of various futures contracts across different sectors, highlighting price changes and trends over multiple time frames. Group 1: Financial and Precious Metals - The Shanghai Composite 300 futures decreased by 0.69%, with a year-to-date increase of 19.81% [8] - The SHFE gold futures rose by 0.22%, while the year-to-date increase stands at 48.84% [8] - The SHFE silver futures increased by 0.75%, with a year-to-date increase of 58.85% [8] Group 2: Nonferrous Metals and New Energy Materials - SHFE copper futures rose by 0.19%, with a year-to-date increase of 16.92% [9] - SHFE aluminum futures decreased by 0.05%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.10% [9] - GFEX lithium carbonate futures increased by 0.84%, with a year-to-date increase of 28.12% [9] Group 3: Black Commodities - SHFE rebar futures fell by 1.01%, with a year-to-date decrease of 11.67% [10] - DCE iron ore futures decreased by 0.32%, with a year-to-date increase of 8.21% [10] - DCE coking coal futures dropped by 3.17%, with a year-to-date decrease of 18.57% [10] Group 4: Agricultural Products - DCE soybean meal futures decreased by 0.46%, with a year-to-date increase of 3.83% [11] - CZCE apple futures increased by 1.26%, with a year-to-date increase of 36.24% [11] - DCE live hog futures fell by 1.00%, with a year-to-date decrease of 21.55% [11] Group 5: Energy and Chemicals - INE crude oil futures decreased by 1.66%, with a year-to-date decrease of 6.97% [12] - DCE ethylene glycol futures fell by 2.05%, with a year-to-date decrease of 21.88% [12] - CZCE soda ash futures dropped by 2.93%, with a year-to-date decrease of 26.95% [12]

Key Points - The article provides an analysis of key futures market varieties, highlighting bullish and bearish opportunities based on market conditions and price movements [2][3][4][5][6][18]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring volume changes and market status to identify potential trading opportunities and risks [6][9][11][12][14]. Group 1: Key Bullish Varieties - The article identifies several bullish varieties, including the CSI 500/1000 futures, which show strong upward trends with prices above moving averages [4][6]. - DCE palm oil is noted for its tight supply-demand balance, supporting price increases [5][6]. - Other bullish varieties include DCE soybean oil and INE crude oil, although the latter shows conflicting market status [6][8]. Group 2: Key Bearish Varieties - DCE ethylene glycol and DCE live hogs are highlighted as bearish varieties, with clear downward trends and significant price drops below moving averages [9][10]. - The article warns of potential overproduction pressures in the live hog market, indicating a bearish outlook [10][18]. Group 3: Volume Change Analysis - High liquidity is observed in the CSI 300 futures with a volume/roll ratio of 6.73, indicating strong market interest [6]. - Conversely, DCE live hogs and SHFE silver show low market activity, raising concerns about liquidity risks [6][14]. Group 4: Trading Opportunities - The article suggests focusing on bullish trends in the CSI 500 and 1000 futures, as well as DCE palm oil, for potential gains [4][6][18]. - It also highlights the need for caution in trading varieties with conflicting signals, such as INE crude oil and CZCE sugar, which may present rebound opportunities [6][8][18]. Group 5: Risk Considerations - The article discusses risks associated with market status and curve divergence, particularly in INE crude oil and SHFE precious metals [11][12]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring maximum drawdown risks in varieties like DCE live hogs and INE shipping index [12][13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by various factors with different price trends. The short - term price of the live hog spot is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract fell by 0.71% to 3072 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mill quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 0.29% to 13970 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs decreased by 0.01 yuan/kg to 13.67 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.80% to 987 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be sporadic showers locally, and the temperature is close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture [3][4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 32nd week (August 2 - 8), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 217.75 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 11, the import cost of US soybeans increased, while that of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans decreased. On August 8, the national main oil mill soybean meal transaction volume decreased. The CNF quotes of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipment increased. Canadian rapeseed exports decreased in the week ending July 31 but increased year - on - year. The Mississippi River barge freight rate decreased. China will implement comprehensive regulation of live hog production capacity. The self - breeding and self - raising live hog farming profit increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was still in the red. The national live hog inventory increased by 2.2% at the end of June, and China's July PPI decreased year - on - year with a narrowing decline month - on - month [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of rapeseed meal, live hogs, soybean meal, and their corresponding bases, as well as charts on Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][13][15][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. The domestic continuous meal main contract has switched. The M09 contract has a support at 3000, and the M01 contract has a short - term support at 3050. The spot price of soybean meal is slowly rising, but the high operating rate of oil mills and inventory pressure restrict price increases. The import of Argentine soybean meal may boost downstream purchasing [17][18] - **Live Hogs**: On the supply side, the supply increases as farmers reduce the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, the demand is expected to improve significantly during the back - to - school season and double - festival stocking. The spot price is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to conduct light - position trial long trades [20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increasing expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest has led to a slight decline in the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures. The domestic soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak external performance, with limited upside potential for prices due to inventory pressure. - The current supply of live pigs is steadily increasing, while demand is in the off - season. The impact of macro - policies still dominates the market, and the near - month contracts are expected to be weak, with opportunities to short sell far - month contracts on price rebounds [20]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 fell 0.33% to 3000 yuan/ton, while the coastal oil mills' quotes showed mixed changes. The DCE live pig main contract 2509 remained unchanged at 14075 yuan/ton. The national average ex - farm price of outer ternary live pigs rose, and the overnight CBOT US soybean main contract dropped 1.21% [2]. 3.2 Weather in Major Producing Areas - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with good soil moisture. There will be scattered showers from Monday to Tuesday in both the west and east, with above - normal temperatures until Tuesday. Future weather will have intermittent showers, and the temperature will drop on Wednesday and be near or below normal from Thursday to Sunday. The good soil moisture can relieve crop stress [3][4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach 1.829 billion tons, and corn production is expected to be 1.409 billion tons. - On July 31, the US soybean import cost reached a 4 - month low, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean import costs also declined. - On July 30, domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume decreased, but the average trading price ended a four - day decline. - Forecasts for US soybean and soybean meal export net sales in different market years were given. - As of July 23, Argentine farmers' soybean sales data were reported. - As of July 25, the national main oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased for twelve consecutive weeks but was lower than in 2024 and the three - year average. - Brazil is expected to export 213 million tons of soybean meal in July 2025, up 6% from last year. - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs by designated slaughtering enterprises decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. - The USDA estimated US soybean production at 1.18 billion tons, while analysts' surveys estimated it at 43.2 billion bushels. - In July, China's PMI dropped to 49.3% due to factors such as the traditional production off - season and natural disasters, with different performances in key industries [5][6][7]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures hit a low since April due to favorable weather. Trade tariffs put the US at a disadvantage in soybean export competition. The decline in US soybean prices has increased China's soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market shows a strong - domestic - weak - external pattern, with limited rebound momentum for futures and potential price constraints in August due to inventory. Oil mills are adjusting strategies to promote far - month basis sales [17][18][19]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is increasing, while demand is in the off - season. There is no new policy guidance currently, and the market is mainly dominated by macro - policies. Near - month contracts are expected to be weak, and opportunities to short sell far - month contracts on price rebounds are recommended [20].