Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On December 30, platinum and palladium futures prices both hit the daily limit down for the second consecutive trading day. The PT2606 contract closed down 13% to 589.85 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 13% to 447.45 yuan/gram. Recently, the fundamentals of platinum and palladium have not changed significantly, but the previous rapid rise in futures prices led to a large deviation between the spot and futures prices and a significant premium over the external market, resulting in high risks in the platinum and palladium markets. Coupled with multiple rounds of risk - control measures introduced by the exchange, the profit - taking pressure and the return of the spot - futures spread caused the prices to drop significantly. After the recent sharp price adjustment, the deviation between the spot and futures prices of platinum and palladium has improved, and the premium over the external market has also narrowed. Although it has not returned to a reasonable level, the space for further decline is expected to be relatively limited, and the prices are expected to gradually shift to range - bound trading. In the long - term, with a supply - demand gap in platinum and a tendency towards a supply - loose pattern in palladium, investors can go long on dips or mainly adopt the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory (Data Summary) Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 589.85, previous value 634.35, down 7.02% [4] - Spot: Shanghai Gold Exchange - Pt9995 closing price: 565.12, previous value 637.15, down 11.31% [4] - Spot: Platinum (99.95%): 228, previous value 652, down 14.42% [4] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 31.85, previous value 17.65, down 280.45% [4] - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 447.45, previous value 494.1, down 9.44% [4] - Spot: Palladium (99.95%): 424, previous value 463.5, down 8.52% [4] - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 23.45, previous value - 30.6, down 23.37% [4] International 15 - Point Prices (US dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum: 2156.1, previous value 2320.6, down 7.09% [4] - London spot palladium: 1603.79, previous value 1691.204, down 5.17% [4] - NYMEX platinum: 2181.3, previous value 2339, down 6.74% [4] - NYMEX palladium: 1668.5, previous value 1811.5, down 7.89% [4] Internal - External 15 - Point Price Spreads - US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity: 7.0348, previous value 7.0331, up 0.02% [4] - Guangzhou platinum - London platinum spread: 38.80, previous value 41.40, down 6.28% [4] - Guangzhou platinum - NYMEX platinum spread: 32.36, previous value 36.70, down 11.83% (tax - included) [5] - Guangzhou palladium - London palladium spread: 37.56, previous value 61.97, down 39.39% [5] - Guangzhou palladium - NYMEX palladium spread: 21.02, previous value 31.24, down 32.70% [5] Price Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3182, previous value 1.2838, up 0.0344 [5] - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3722, previous value 1.3444, down 0.0278 [5] Inventories (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: 646795, previous value 646896, down 0.02% [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: 210029, previous value 198040, up 6.05% [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: 97095, previous value 90356, up 7.46% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: 23293, previous value 19890, up 17.11% [5] - NYMEX total palladium position: 22061, previous value 20773, up 6.20% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: 978, previous value - 18, up 5533.33% [5]

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and regard it as a rebound for now. Rapeseed oil has the largest increase in the near - term due to continuous destocking, concentrated cargo rights, and strong basis quotes. The estimated decline in domestic soybean crushing volume in Q1 will lead to a stronger basis for soybean oil, and the futures price has strong support at 7,800 - 8,000. For palm oil, the production decline in December has been confirmed, and the export volume from December 1 to 25 in Malaysia increased by 1.6% - 3.0% month - on - month. However, due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is hard to sustain, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 9,000 [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605: Opened at 8,504, closed at 8,658, up 1.22% with a trading volume of 358,771 and an open interest of 388,850, a decrease of 119 [7] - P2601: Opened at 8,520, closed at 8,646, up 1.34% with a trading volume of 7,236 and an open interest of 6,178, a decrease of 4,169 [7] - Y2605: Opened at 7,802, closed at 7,878, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 209,400 and an open interest of 619,542, a decrease of 16,826 [7] - Y2601: Opened at 8,046, closed at 8,150, up 1.07% with a trading volume of 6,782 and an open interest of 7,670, a decrease of 5,927 [7] - O1605: Opened at 9,036, closed at 9,086, up 0.34% with a trading volume of 195,918 and an open interest of 199,248, an increase of 7,865 [7] - Ol601: Opened at 9,662, closed at 9,714, up 2.50% with a trading volume of 3,475 and an open interest of 7,412, a decrease of 1,062 [7] - **Basis Price**: - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: 05 + 800 in January - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis: Spot: Y05 + 510; February - March: Y2605 + 480; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300. Grade 3 soybean oil: 05 + 450, green soybean oil: 05 + 300 - Dongguan palm oil quotes: 18 - degree: 05 + 200 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree: 05 + 170 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree: 05 + 70 (Dongguan and Guangzhou warehouses), 28 - degree: 05 + 50 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Argentina Weather**: A US meteorologist said that Argentina may face drought in January, especially during La Nina. Reduced rainfall from late January to February may cut soybean production, depending on temperature forecasts. So far, the weather in Argentina has been good, and crop growth is better than normal, but concerns may intensify in January [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that from December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month, with a 11.66% decline in Peninsular Malaysia, 2.12% in Sabah, 0.75% in Sarawak, and 1.73% in East Malaysia [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: - ITS data showed that from December 1 - 25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase from November 1 - 25. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the same period last month [9][10] - AmSpec data showed a 3.0% increase to 1,017,897 tons - SGS data showed a 41.0% increase to 824,276 tons [18] 3.3 Data Overview - **Domestic Imported Soybean Inventory**: As of the end of Week 52 in 2025, the total inventory was 6.847 million tons, a decrease of 0.875 million tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 5.818 million tons, a decrease of 0.887 million tons from the previous week [18]

Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Settlement price 8516, opening price 8520, highest price 8578, lowest price 8506, closing price 8542, up 26 (0.31%), trading volume 299943, open interest 434218, down 14422 [7] - P2601: Settlement price 8492, opening price 8502, highest price 8558, lowest price 8498, closing price 8514, up 22 (0.26%), trading volume 22134, open interest 23925, down 13555 [7] - Y2605: Settlement price 778, opening price 7766, highest price 7832, lowest price 7760, closing price 7824, up 46 (0.59%), trading volume 202686, open interest 642712, down 15724 [7] - Y2601: Settlement price 8004, opening price 7988, highest price 8050, lowest price 7988, closing price 8044, up 40 (0.50%), trading volume 69651, open interest 24712, up 66899 [7] - OI605: Settlement price 8901, opening price 8003, highest price 9020, lowest price 8961, closing price 8981, up 80 (0.90%), trading volume 181994, open interest 197238, up 972 [7] - OI601: Settlement price 9181, opening price 9314, highest price 9372, lowest price 9286, closing price 9361, up 180 (1.96%), trading volume 8539, open interest 12038, down 2656 [7] Basis Price - East China tertiary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 530; February - March: OI2605 + 490 [7] - East China primary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 730; February - March: OI2601 + 690 [7] - East China market primary soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y05 + 500; February - March: Y2605 + 460; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300 [7] - Dongguan palm oil quotes: Guangzhou Yihai 18 - degree: 05 + 160; Dongguan COFCO 18 - degree: 05 + 100; Dongguan factories 24 - degree: 05 - 30; Guangdong national standard 24 - degree: 05 + 20 [7] Operation Suggestions - Focus on the spot - futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and temporarily view it as a rebound [8] - CBOT soybeans and Malaysian futures are closed for Christmas. The supply - demand fundamentals of forward contracts are mixed. China's soybean procurement is progressing steadily, supporting CBOT soybeans, but US soybean export data is still weak, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [8] - Domestic soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price has strong support at 7800 - 8000 [8] - Due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is difficult to sustain [8] - Rapeseed oil: Global rapeseed production hits a record, and Canadian exports are affected by Chinese tariffs. The market believes its valuation should decline. However, rapeseed oil spot is experiencing continuous inventory reduction, with concentrated ownership, and the basis quote is firm. Wait for the first - quarter tariff policy to be clear [8] - Due to the excessive decline, the futures price has rebounded from oversold levels, but be cautious about the unilateral upward height [8] - In arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil, and short on rapeseed oil [8] Group 3: Industry News - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month. Production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month - on - month, Sabah decreased by 2.12%, Sarawak decreased by 0.75%, and East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% [11] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports were 1058112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include East China tertiary rapeseed oil spot price, East China quaternary soybean oil spot price, South China 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar - RMB exchange rate [13][15][18][26][32][33]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Carbonate lithium futures rose to a new high in two years, with total positions decreasing by 9,244 lots and increasing capital exit sentiment. The spot price increased by 2,000 to 101,500, Australian ore rose by 30 to 1,435, mica rose by 85 to 3,210, ternary materials rose by 700 - 800, lithium iron phosphate rose by 470 - 490, and electrolyte prices remained flat. The industry chain price increase trend continued, and there was still fundamental support. However, the short - term deviation between futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium was large. As the LC2601 contract was about to enter delivery, the pressure of futures - spot convergence might slow down the short - term upward pace of lithium prices [11] 3. Industry News Summary - On December 24, Zhongwei Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform that it had acquired two salt lake lithium mines in Argentina at low cost at the bottom of the industry cycle, and 100% equity transfer procedures had been completed. The two salt lake lithium mines were still in the exploration and construction stage [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued several opinions to promote the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation. They supported new energy bases such as large - scale "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new energy bases for external transmission, water - wind - solar bases for external transmission, and various self - use bases with suitable technical and economic conditions to carry out solar thermal power station project construction. They would scientifically determine the installed capacity of solar thermal power generation in the bases, optimize and improve the base regulation capacity, increase the proportion of green electricity in the base, reduce the average carbon emissions per kilowatt - hour of the base, strengthen the stable transmission of new energy, and actively explore the role of technically and economically feasible solar thermal power stations as supporting and regulating power sources in large bases [12]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract and view it as a rebound for now. The supply and demand fundamentals of forward contracts have little change, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high-frequency data in Malaysia shows that the export data from December 1 - 20 improved and the production decline from December 1 - 20 widened, providing some support for the palm oil market. The market is also concerned about the development of biodiesel in Indonesia. The domestic soybean oil inventory declines seasonally, and the basis is strong, with strong support for the futures price at 7,800 - 8,000. Rapeseed oil is generally used as a short position in arbitrage, but the basis quote is firm due to continuous inventory reduction and concentrated cargo rights. The futures price rebounds due to excessive decline, but caution is needed regarding the unilateral upward height. In terms of arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of the third-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 530, and from February - March was OI2605 + 490. The basis price of the first-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 730, and from February - March was OI2601 + 690. The basis price of the first-grade soybean oil in the East China market had different values at different time periods. The palm oil quotes of traders in Dongguan were stable [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract. For forward contracts, expect narrow fluctuations. In arbitrage, long palm oil and soybean oil and short rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20, 2025 decreased by 7.44% month-on-month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 2.12% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.75% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% month-on-month [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures, including the spot prices of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the price spreads of P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [11][13][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the polysilicon market, highlighting the establishment of a new company aimed at capacity integration and the shifting dynamics in the futures market due to supply constraints and regulatory changes [4][6]. Market Dynamics - On December 9, the main contract for polysilicon (ps2601) traded strongly above 55,000 yuan/ton, closing at 55,610 yuan, with an increase of over 3% [2]. - A new company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, focusing on strategic cooperation opportunities within the industry [4]. - The recent futures market has transitioned from an "emotion-driven" phase to a "rational return," with a notable "warehouse squeeze" due to a shortage of deliverable physical warehouse receipts [5][6]. Supply and Demand Overview - According to SMM, domestic polysilicon production in November was nearly 120,000 tons, a decrease from October, with expectations for further declines in December due to seasonal factors [10]. - Demand from silicon wafer manufacturers has weakened, with production plans down approximately 15% month-on-month in December, leading to an increase in silicon wafer inventory [10][17]. - As of December 5, polysilicon inventory increased by 600 tons to 294,000 tons, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise [10]. Future Scenarios - Three potential paths for the polysilicon market are outlined: 1. **Market Stabilization**: A 50% probability of a return to a chaotic phase with price fluctuations as the market digests new information [7]. 2. **Bearish Reversal**: A 30% probability of a sharp decline if the exchange announces new delivery brands, leading to a sell-off by long positions [8]. 3. **Temporary Victory for Bulls**: A 20% probability where the market remains tight before delivery, but this victory may be short-lived as long-term bearish sentiments persist [9]. Regulatory Changes - The exchange announced the addition of two new brands for polysilicon futures, which is expected to alleviate concerns over the scarcity of deliverable products and may lead to an increase in warehouse receipts [5][18]. - The market is currently adjusting to these regulatory changes, with expectations of increased warehouse receipts and a shift back to fundamental pricing logic [6][19]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a state of cautious optimism, with the potential for price movements to remain within a range of 52,000 to 53,000 yuan/ton, depending on future supply and demand dynamics [19].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Performance: Carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell, with high capital gaming sentiment. The main contract rose by over 4% during the day, turned negative in the afternoon, and the total open interest decreased by 15,747 lots [8]. - Spot Price Changes: Spot electric carbon rose by 2,400 to 91,300, Australian ore rose by 45 to 1,245, mica ore rose by 125 to 2,700, 6F rose by 4,000, electrolyte remained flat, lithium iron phosphate rose by 560 - 590, and ternary rose by 400 - 700 [8]. - Industry Fundamentals: Weekly production increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons, social inventory decreased by 2,052 tons, and the weekly destocking volume was lower than last week. Lithium iron phosphate and ternary production continued to increase. The decrease in destocking was likely due to the sharp rise in lithium prices this week. The industry fundamentals remained healthy [8]. - Future Outlook: With the futures price leading the spot price, the pressure of futures - spot convergence was a drag on the short - term rise of futures lithium prices. Short - term futures were expected to fluctuate [8]. Group 3: Industry News - Business Agreement: EVE Energy and Smoore International signed a procurement framework agreement on November 20, 2025. Smoore will continuously purchase battery cells from EVE, but the specific amount is uncertain [11]. - Industry Regulation: The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will issue a notice on referring to the lithium iron phosphate cost index and standardizing industry development. It suggests that enterprises use the industry average cost range disclosed on November 18 as an important reference for quotations and submit production and operation data regularly [11]. - Mining Performance: Greenbushes lithium mine, in which TLEA (a joint - venture of IGO) holds 51%, showed strong profitability in the 2025 fiscal year, producing 1.48 million tons of spodumene concentrate, with a cash cost of 325 Australian dollars per ton, generating 1.5 billion Australian dollars in cash flow and a 66% EBITDA margin. Its third chemical plant is scheduled to be put into operation by the end of the year, increasing the annual production capacity by 500,000 tons [12]

Report Summary Market Performance on August 11, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market rallied with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43, and ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82. Trading volume reached 1.827 trillion yuan, up 116.7 billion yuan from last Friday. CSI 300 Index closed at 4122.51, up 17.54 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index closed at 1735.3, up 33.2; coking coal weighted index closed at 1234.7 yuan, up 37.8. Coke's 6th round of price increase started, while coking coal's spot price fluctuated. Import of coking coal decreased by 7.36% from January to June, and export of coke decreased by 28% during the same period [3][4][5] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract edged down on Monday but rebounded slightly at night due to technical factors. EU's beet production is expected to increase by 1% in 2025/26, but disease remains a concern [5] - **Rubber Futures**: Supported by Fed's rate - cut expectation and adverse weather in Thailand, Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Monday and consolidated at night. Indonesia's rubber export increased by 11.6% in H1, while Vietnam's decreased by 3.4% [6] - **Soybean Meal Futures**: CBOT soybeans rose over 2% on August 11 due to improved US export demand. US soybean export sales reached a 6 - and - a - half - month high. Domestic M2601 contract closed at 3072 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. High domestic supply and low terminal demand coexist, but rising import cost and low Q4 procurement support prices [7] - **Live Pig Futures**: LH2511 contract closed at 14140 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. Low consumption in summer, expected increase in group - farm supply, and high overall capacity lead to a loose supply - demand situation [8] - **Palm Oil Futures**: P2509 contract closed at 9218, up 2.65%. Malaysia's July palm oil export, production, and inventory increased, while import decreased [9] - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The main contract rose. Tight copper supply and increased short - term supply disruptions are positive for prices, but expected supply increase after US tariff implementation poses pressure [9] - **Cotton Futures**: Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory at Xinjiang warehouses decreased by 80 lots [10] - **Iron Ore Futures**: 2509 contract closed at 796.5 yuan, up 0.82%. Global shipments decreased last week, but demand remains resilient due to high iron - water production [10] - **Asphalt Futures**: 2510 contract closed at 3481 yuan, down 0.51%. Capacity utilization and shipments increased last week, and low inventory supports prices [11] - **Log Futures**: 2509 contract opened at 833.5, closed at 832.5, and decreased by 1404 lots. Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. Strong expectation and weak reality coexist [11] - **Steel Futures**: rb2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3465 yuan/ton. Production restrictions in Tangshan and strong coke and coking coal prices support steel prices [12] - **Alumina Futures**: ao2509 closed at 3182 yuan/ton. With increasing capacity, supply is becoming more abundant, and the market is shifting to cost - based pricing [12] - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: al2509 closed at 20700 yuan/ton. Ample supply, weak demand, and mixed economic expectations put pressure on prices [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by various factors with different price trends. The short - term price of the live hog spot is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract fell by 0.71% to 3072 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mill quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 0.29% to 13970 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs decreased by 0.01 yuan/kg to 13.67 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.80% to 987 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be sporadic showers locally, and the temperature is close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture [3][4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 32nd week (August 2 - 8), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 217.75 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 11, the import cost of US soybeans increased, while that of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans decreased. On August 8, the national main oil mill soybean meal transaction volume decreased. The CNF quotes of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipment increased. Canadian rapeseed exports decreased in the week ending July 31 but increased year - on - year. The Mississippi River barge freight rate decreased. China will implement comprehensive regulation of live hog production capacity. The self - breeding and self - raising live hog farming profit increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was still in the red. The national live hog inventory increased by 2.2% at the end of June, and China's July PPI decreased year - on - year with a narrowing decline month - on - month [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of rapeseed meal, live hogs, soybean meal, and their corresponding bases, as well as charts on Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][13][15][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. The domestic continuous meal main contract has switched. The M09 contract has a support at 3000, and the M01 contract has a short - term support at 3050. The spot price of soybean meal is slowly rising, but the high operating rate of oil mills and inventory pressure restrict price increases. The import of Argentine soybean meal may boost downstream purchasing [17][18] - **Live Hogs**: On the supply side, the supply increases as farmers reduce the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, the demand is expected to improve significantly during the back - to - school season and double - festival stocking. The spot price is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to conduct light - position trial long trades [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean market has seen a significant decline due to the soybean meal feed reduction substitution plan. The far-month basis quote has weakened, and the near-month warehouse receipt pressure has returned, leading to a correction of the basis. The rapeseed market has followed the decline of soybean meal. In the short term, the contradictions have returned to reality, and the far-month supply-demand gap remains the key focus for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino-US peace talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment in the far month due to weather speculation, and the Brazilian export premium supporting the far-month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors include the supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to focus on the departure of near-month long funds for the return of the futures and spot markets, the expected soybean arrivals showing a gap after December, and the impact of the recent Indian rapeseed issue on the upward momentum, along with the lack of elasticity in the market's repeated pricing of the potential Sino-Canadian and Sino-Australian talks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Futures Price - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal futures contracts are as follows: M01 is 3059, down 57 (-1.83%); M05 is 2753, down 16 (-0.58%); M09 is 3025, down 70 (-2.26%). For rapeseed meal futures, RM01 is 2412, down 32 (-1.31%); RM05 is 2371, down 12 (-0.5%); RM09 is 2682, down 76 (-2.76%). CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1022.5 with no change, and the offshore RMB closed at 7.1518, down 0.0174 (-0.24%) [7][9]. 3.4 Spread - The spreads and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: M01 - 05 is 347, up 3; M05 - 09 is -326, unchanged; M09 - 01 is -21, down 3; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 1; RM05 - 09 is -375, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 314, up 15. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860, down 60, and the basis is -175, up 11. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2630, down 32, and the basis is -128, down 54. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 290, up 52, and the futures spread is 337, down 13 [10]. 3.5 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 0.004 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3938.83 yuan/ton, up 12.66 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 21.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is -843.5845 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7.0881 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, up 40.4599 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 0.9124 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 147 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 220 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 154 yuan/ton from the previous week [11].