Report Summary Market Performance on August 11, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market rallied with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43, and ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82. Trading volume reached 1.827 trillion yuan, up 116.7 billion yuan from last Friday. CSI 300 Index closed at 4122.51, up 17.54 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index closed at 1735.3, up 33.2; coking coal weighted index closed at 1234.7 yuan, up 37.8. Coke's 6th round of price increase started, while coking coal's spot price fluctuated. Import of coking coal decreased by 7.36% from January to June, and export of coke decreased by 28% during the same period [3][4][5] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract edged down on Monday but rebounded slightly at night due to technical factors. EU's beet production is expected to increase by 1% in 2025/26, but disease remains a concern [5] - **Rubber Futures**: Supported by Fed's rate - cut expectation and adverse weather in Thailand, Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Monday and consolidated at night. Indonesia's rubber export increased by 11.6% in H1, while Vietnam's decreased by 3.4% [6] - **Soybean Meal Futures**: CBOT soybeans rose over 2% on August 11 due to improved US export demand. US soybean export sales reached a 6 - and - a - half - month high. Domestic M2601 contract closed at 3072 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. High domestic supply and low terminal demand coexist, but rising import cost and low Q4 procurement support prices [7] - **Live Pig Futures**: LH2511 contract closed at 14140 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. Low consumption in summer, expected increase in group - farm supply, and high overall capacity lead to a loose supply - demand situation [8] - **Palm Oil Futures**: P2509 contract closed at 9218, up 2.65%. Malaysia's July palm oil export, production, and inventory increased, while import decreased [9] - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The main contract rose. Tight copper supply and increased short - term supply disruptions are positive for prices, but expected supply increase after US tariff implementation poses pressure [9] - **Cotton Futures**: Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory at Xinjiang warehouses decreased by 80 lots [10] - **Iron Ore Futures**: 2509 contract closed at 796.5 yuan, up 0.82%. Global shipments decreased last week, but demand remains resilient due to high iron - water production [10] - **Asphalt Futures**: 2510 contract closed at 3481 yuan, down 0.51%. Capacity utilization and shipments increased last week, and low inventory supports prices [11] - **Log Futures**: 2509 contract opened at 833.5, closed at 832.5, and decreased by 1404 lots. Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. Strong expectation and weak reality coexist [11] - **Steel Futures**: rb2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3465 yuan/ton. Production restrictions in Tangshan and strong coke and coking coal prices support steel prices [12] - **Alumina Futures**: ao2509 closed at 3182 yuan/ton. With increasing capacity, supply is becoming more abundant, and the market is shifting to cost - based pricing [12] - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: al2509 closed at 20700 yuan/ton. Ample supply, weak demand, and mixed economic expectations put pressure on prices [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by various factors with different price trends. The short - term price of the live hog spot is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract fell by 0.71% to 3072 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mill quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 0.29% to 13970 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs decreased by 0.01 yuan/kg to 13.67 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.80% to 987 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be sporadic showers locally, and the temperature is close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture [3][4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 32nd week (August 2 - 8), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 217.75 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 11, the import cost of US soybeans increased, while that of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans decreased. On August 8, the national main oil mill soybean meal transaction volume decreased. The CNF quotes of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipment increased. Canadian rapeseed exports decreased in the week ending July 31 but increased year - on - year. The Mississippi River barge freight rate decreased. China will implement comprehensive regulation of live hog production capacity. The self - breeding and self - raising live hog farming profit increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was still in the red. The national live hog inventory increased by 2.2% at the end of June, and China's July PPI decreased year - on - year with a narrowing decline month - on - month [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of rapeseed meal, live hogs, soybean meal, and their corresponding bases, as well as charts on Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][13][15][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. The domestic continuous meal main contract has switched. The M09 contract has a support at 3000, and the M01 contract has a short - term support at 3050. The spot price of soybean meal is slowly rising, but the high operating rate of oil mills and inventory pressure restrict price increases. The import of Argentine soybean meal may boost downstream purchasing [17][18] - **Live Hogs**: On the supply side, the supply increases as farmers reduce the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, the demand is expected to improve significantly during the back - to - school season and double - festival stocking. The spot price is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to conduct light - position trial long trades [20]

| 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 10.2% | 7.8% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 0.1266 | 0.0718 | source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M250 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-340 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 9 | | | 0 | | 饲料厂采购 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单 | 空 | 为了防止粕类价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入豆粕期货，在盘 | M250 | 买入 | 50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing upward momentum due to policy expectations and production cut news, but high inventory levels are limiting the rebound potential [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 2, domestic futures market saw significant increases in industrial silicon and polysilicon, with polysilicon main contract hitting a limit up at 35,050 CNY/ton, a rise of 6.99%, and industrial silicon main contract closing at 8,210 CNY/ton, up 4.79% [1] - The recent production cut news from industrial silicon manufacturers has contributed to price increases, although the actual timing of these cuts remains uncertain [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average cost of polysilicon has dropped to 34.52 CNY/kg, with recent price indices nearing this cost level, indicating pressure on profitability [2] - As of June 26, total polysilicon inventory reached 270,000 tons, marking a high point for recent years, with significant disparities among companies [2] - Despite a recent rebound in industrial silicon prices, the long-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the potential for further price increases [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The fundamentals for industrial silicon show slight improvement, with major manufacturers reducing output leading to a more stable supply, but demand remains relatively weak [2] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, with ongoing attention needed on industry hedging and production changes from major manufacturers [2]

生猪日报 | 2025-06-12 1、6月11日，生猪注册仓单525手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓888手，持仓约7.74万手，最高价13670元/ 吨，最低价13570元/吨，收盘于13600元/吨。 【基本面分析】 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡偏弱； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年 ...