Report Summary Market Performance on August 11, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market rallied with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43, and ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82. Trading volume reached 1.827 trillion yuan, up 116.7 billion yuan from last Friday. CSI 300 Index closed at 4122.51, up 17.54 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index closed at 1735.3, up 33.2; coking coal weighted index closed at 1234.7 yuan, up 37.8. Coke's 6th round of price increase started, while coking coal's spot price fluctuated. Import of coking coal decreased by 7.36% from January to June, and export of coke decreased by 28% during the same period [3][4][5] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract edged down on Monday but rebounded slightly at night due to technical factors. EU's beet production is expected to increase by 1% in 2025/26, but disease remains a concern [5] - **Rubber Futures**: Supported by Fed's rate - cut expectation and adverse weather in Thailand, Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Monday and consolidated at night. Indonesia's rubber export increased by 11.6% in H1, while Vietnam's decreased by 3.4% [6] - **Soybean Meal Futures**: CBOT soybeans rose over 2% on August 11 due to improved US export demand. US soybean export sales reached a 6 - and - a - half - month high. Domestic M2601 contract closed at 3072 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. High domestic supply and low terminal demand coexist, but rising import cost and low Q4 procurement support prices [7] - **Live Pig Futures**: LH2511 contract closed at 14140 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. Low consumption in summer, expected increase in group - farm supply, and high overall capacity lead to a loose supply - demand situation [8] - **Palm Oil Futures**: P2509 contract closed at 9218, up 2.65%. Malaysia's July palm oil export, production, and inventory increased, while import decreased [9] - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The main contract rose. Tight copper supply and increased short - term supply disruptions are positive for prices, but expected supply increase after US tariff implementation poses pressure [9] - **Cotton Futures**: Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory at Xinjiang warehouses decreased by 80 lots [10] - **Iron Ore Futures**: 2509 contract closed at 796.5 yuan, up 0.82%. Global shipments decreased last week, but demand remains resilient due to high iron - water production [10] - **Asphalt Futures**: 2510 contract closed at 3481 yuan, down 0.51%. Capacity utilization and shipments increased last week, and low inventory supports prices [11] - **Log Futures**: 2509 contract opened at 833.5, closed at 832.5, and decreased by 1404 lots. Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. Strong expectation and weak reality coexist [11] - **Steel Futures**: rb2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3465 yuan/ton. Production restrictions in Tangshan and strong coke and coking coal prices support steel prices [12] - **Alumina Futures**: ao2509 closed at 3182 yuan/ton. With increasing capacity, supply is becoming more abundant, and the market is shifting to cost - based pricing [12] - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: al2509 closed at 20700 yuan/ton. Ample supply, weak demand, and mixed economic expectations put pressure on prices [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term, and the domestic continuous meal is affected by various factors with different price trends. The short - term price of the live hog spot is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2601 contract fell by 0.71% to 3072 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mill quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 0.29% to 13970 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs decreased by 0.01 yuan/kg to 13.67 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.80% to 987 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, the west has active rainfall and the east is relatively dry. In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, there will be sporadic showers locally, and the temperature is close to or higher than normal. Most areas have good soil moisture [3][4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 32nd week (August 2 - 8), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 217.75 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 11, the import cost of US soybeans increased, while that of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans decreased. On August 8, the national main oil mill soybean meal transaction volume decreased. The CNF quotes of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipment increased. Canadian rapeseed exports decreased in the week ending July 31 but increased year - on - year. The Mississippi River barge freight rate decreased. China will implement comprehensive regulation of live hog production capacity. The self - breeding and self - raising live hog farming profit increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was still in the red. The national live hog inventory increased by 2.2% at the end of June, and China's July PPI decreased year - on - year with a narrowing decline month - on - month [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of rapeseed meal, live hogs, soybean meal, and their corresponding bases, as well as charts on Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][13][15][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. The domestic continuous meal main contract has switched. The M09 contract has a support at 3000, and the M01 contract has a short - term support at 3050. The spot price of soybean meal is slowly rising, but the high operating rate of oil mills and inventory pressure restrict price increases. The import of Argentine soybean meal may boost downstream purchasing [17][18] - **Live Hogs**: On the supply side, the supply increases as farmers reduce the weight of hogs for sale. On the demand side, the demand is expected to improve significantly during the back - to - school season and double - festival stocking. The spot price is falling, but the near - month contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the 2511 contract fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to conduct light - position trial long trades [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean market has seen a significant decline due to the soybean meal feed reduction substitution plan. The far-month basis quote has weakened, and the near-month warehouse receipt pressure has returned, leading to a correction of the basis. The rapeseed market has followed the decline of soybean meal. In the short term, the contradictions have returned to reality, and the far-month supply-demand gap remains the key focus for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino-US peace talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment in the far month due to weather speculation, and the Brazilian export premium supporting the far-month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors include the supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to focus on the departure of near-month long funds for the return of the futures and spot markets, the expected soybean arrivals showing a gap after December, and the impact of the recent Indian rapeseed issue on the upward momentum, along with the lack of elasticity in the market's repeated pricing of the potential Sino-Canadian and Sino-Australian talks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Futures Price - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal futures contracts are as follows: M01 is 3059, down 57 (-1.83%); M05 is 2753, down 16 (-0.58%); M09 is 3025, down 70 (-2.26%). For rapeseed meal futures, RM01 is 2412, down 32 (-1.31%); RM05 is 2371, down 12 (-0.5%); RM09 is 2682, down 76 (-2.76%). CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1022.5 with no change, and the offshore RMB closed at 7.1518, down 0.0174 (-0.24%) [7][9]. 3.4 Spread - The spreads and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: M01 - 05 is 347, up 3; M05 - 09 is -326, unchanged; M09 - 01 is -21, down 3; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 1; RM05 - 09 is -375, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 314, up 15. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860, down 60, and the basis is -175, up 11. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2630, down 32, and the basis is -128, down 54. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 290, up 52, and the futures spread is 337, down 13 [10]. 3.5 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 0.004 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3938.83 yuan/ton, up 12.66 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 21.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is -843.5845 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7.0881 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, up 40.4599 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 0.9124 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 147 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 220 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 154 yuan/ton from the previous week [11].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing upward momentum due to policy expectations and production cut news, but high inventory levels are limiting the rebound potential [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 2, domestic futures market saw significant increases in industrial silicon and polysilicon, with polysilicon main contract hitting a limit up at 35,050 CNY/ton, a rise of 6.99%, and industrial silicon main contract closing at 8,210 CNY/ton, up 4.79% [1] - The recent production cut news from industrial silicon manufacturers has contributed to price increases, although the actual timing of these cuts remains uncertain [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average cost of polysilicon has dropped to 34.52 CNY/kg, with recent price indices nearing this cost level, indicating pressure on profitability [2] - As of June 26, total polysilicon inventory reached 270,000 tons, marking a high point for recent years, with significant disparities among companies [2] - Despite a recent rebound in industrial silicon prices, the long-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the potential for further price increases [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The fundamentals for industrial silicon show slight improvement, with major manufacturers reducing output leading to a more stable supply, but demand remains relatively weak [2] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, with ongoing attention needed on industry hedging and production changes from major manufacturers [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs is expected to be weak with fluctuations [4]. - The reasons include sufficient supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 based on sow and piglet data, weak demand support in the second and third quarters, and the possibility of a new low in prices if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Market Overview - On June 11, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.02 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.12 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan or -0.07%, and in Sichuan it was 13.91 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan or 0.51% [6]. - For futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.07%; the 03 contract was 12,775 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08%; the 05 contract was 12,995 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.19%; the 07 contract was 13,215 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.08%; the 09 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04%; the 11 contract was 13,325 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.26% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was 520 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or -2.8% [6]. II. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14]. III. Market Dynamics - On June 11, the number of registered live - pig warehouse receipts was 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly about the convergence of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the expected decline in spot prices and the possible increase in future slaughter volume [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 888 lots today, with a position of about 77,400 lots. The highest price was 13,670 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,570 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,600 yuan/ton [2]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the farming side has not reduced the weight of pigs, future slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and demand support is limited in the second and third quarters. The long - side logic includes that there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is firm, and although the future slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited and the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season [3]. V. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be weak with fluctuations [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, a new low in prices may occur if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, and the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].