1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to be bullish in the medium to long - term, and new long positions in the far - month contracts of oils can be entered [2]. - The double - meal market is likely to continue its strong upward trend, and a mid - term bullish view on double - meal should be maintained, with buying on dips as the main strategy [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On August 13, due to the unexpectedly bullish USDA August report and the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, the vegetable oil sector rose strongly. For example, the main contract of soybean oil Y2601 closed at 8,576 yuan/ton, up 1.18% day - on - day, with an increase of 26,820 lots in open interest [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On August 13, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning letter for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [1][3]. - The USDA August supply - demand report was overall bullish, with the U.S. soybean planting area unexpectedly reduced. For instance, the U.S. soybean planting area was 80.9 million acres, compared with 83.4 million acres in July's expectation [1][3]. - The U.S. will continue to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% tariff for another 90 days from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [1][3]. - On August 12, China's Ministry of Commerce preliminarily determined that imported rapeseed from Canada was dumped, and if an anti - dumping ruling is made later, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed will increase significantly [1][3]. - Malaysia's July supply - demand report for palm oil was bullish, with production and increase lower than Bloomberg and Reuters' forecasts, and export growth higher than their forecasts [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the USDA report and the China - Canada anti - dumping ruling led to a strong rebound in U.S. soybeans, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, policies supported commodities, and the suspension of the 24% tariff improved the macro - environment. The vegetable oil sector of the new main contract 2601 strengthened collectively [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - In the single - side trading, new long positions in the far - month contracts of oils can be entered. For example, the resistance level of Y2601 is 9,000 yuan/ton, and the support level is 7,800 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On August 13, due to the bullish USDA report and the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal's near - month contract hit the daily limit, and the far - month contract almost hit the limit, while soybean meal rose strongly. For example, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3,163 yuan/ton, up 2.33% day - on - day, with an increase of 1.79 million lots in open interest [3]. 3.2.2 Important Information - Similar to the vegetable oil market, it includes the risk warning letter from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed, the bullish USDA August supply - demand report, etc. In addition, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume increased significantly, and the Brazilian soybean export volume in August 2025 is estimated to be 8.15 million tons [3][4]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the USDA August supply - demand report significantly reduced the U.S. soybean planting area, and the ICE rapeseed price tumbled due to the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Domestically, the market expected the import cost of Canadian rapeseed to rise, and the double - meal is likely to continue its strong upward trend [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - In the single - side trading, a mid - term bullish view on double - meal should be maintained, with buying on dips as the main strategy. For example, the resistance level of M2601 is 3,250 yuan/ton, and the support level is 2,980 yuan/ton [4].

豆粕生猪：美豆丰产预期加强 连粕小幅跟跌 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 美白朗宗 THEREL FILLINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 南位 | 全日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 7月31日 | 元/吨 | 3036 | 3049 | -13.00 | -0.43% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 7月31日 | 元/吨 | 2735 | 2742 | -7.00 | -0.26% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 7月31日 | 元/吨 | 3000 | 3010 | -10.00 | -0.33% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 7月31日 | 元/吨 | 2411 | 2428 | -17.00 | -0.70% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: ...

1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: Affected by the significant decline in export data on the 25th, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures retreated from their high levels. In the short - term, it is expected to seek support around 4,200 ringgit. Domestically, there may be an opportunity for a new round of upward - trending fluctuations. Overall, the view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stop falling in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. With good weather, a bumper harvest is still expected, and weak export data has dragged down the CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Domestically, due to a large arrival of soybeans, the inventory will remain high in the short - term. As it is the traditional off - season for demand, the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing. With the approaching of August and the expected increase in demand, the market has a certain price - supporting mentality, and the spot basis spread may fluctuate narrowly in the short - term and rise in the long - term [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, with no strong unilateral driving force, and the futures market will remain volatile. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of corn may be tight in the third quarter, supporting prices, while in the fourth quarter, the new - season output may be stable or slightly increase, and the supply - demand situation may be loose [2]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The output in India and Thailand may increase due to strong monsoon rains, and it is speculated that India's bumper harvest may lead to another round of exports. It is expected that the bottom of the raw sugar price may appear in the short - term, but considering the increasing production pattern, a bearish view is maintained, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. Domestically, the import data in June continued to increase, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound. In the short - term, the sugar price is expected to remain in a narrow high - level range [7]. Cotton Industry - The pressure on the supply side is increasing marginally due to the new supply of relatively low - priced 2023/24 old cotton and the short - term stable and slightly decreasing spot basis. The weakening of the demand side is slowing down marginally as the operation rate of inland textile enterprises has dropped to a relatively low level, and the operation rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains strong. The finished product inventory has not significantly increased, but the downstream is still weak, and the operation rate of inland textile enterprises may still decline slightly in the future. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new - season cotton is listed [10]. Egg Industry - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply of eggs is sufficient. Affected by high - temperature weather, the feed intake of laying hens has decreased, resulting in a decline in egg weight and laying rate. The supply of medium and small - sized eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs, especially high - quality large - sized eggs, is tight. The egg price has risen continuously recently, but the terminal market has not kept up, and the wholesale market's sales speed has slowed down. However, as it is the traditional peak season for egg demand, the demand may first decrease and then increase this week. It is expected that the egg price in some areas may decline by 0.10 - 0.20 yuan per catty next week. After a slight decline, traders may replenish their stocks at low prices, and the demand may recover. The spot price may still have some room for an upward movement, but the upward space for futures is limited due to production capacity [15]. Meal Industry - US soybeans continue to oscillate at the bottom. The current uncertainty mainly lies in the progress of trade relations, and the expectation of a bumper new - season harvest continues to suppress the upside space. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm. Currently, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is continuously rising, and oil mills are urging提货 due to full storage. The basis is oscillating at a low level. The short - term supply is maintained by a high arrival volume of soybeans and high operation rates, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited room for decline. The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting proposed to optimize the pig production capacity and continue to promote the reduction of soybean meal substitution. Coupled with the import of Argentine soybean meal, the market sentiment is restricted, and the soybean meal price has declined. After the previous rise, the soybean meal price has returned to a low - level adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is running weakly. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening has declined, the slaughter volume has increased slightly, and the group - farm slaughter has continued to recover. Coupled with weak market demand and a decrease in slaughter orders, the price is running weakly. Currently, the supply and demand are both weak. There may be a short - term boost at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, but the group - farm slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the large - sized pigs previously held by散户 also need to be slaughtered. In the short - term, the pig price is still not optimistic. It is expected that the spot price will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and the near - term 09 contract is strongly suppressed. The far - term contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. However, when the futures market has offered good hedging profits, attention should also be paid to the impact of hedging funds [22]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 28th compared to July 25th** - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,350 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.36%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8,120 yuan, down 24 yuan (- 0.29%); the basis was 230 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 2.54%). - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.33%); the futures price of P2509 was 8,946 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.11%); the basis was 24 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 62.50%); the盘面 import cost at Guangzhou Port in September was 9,256.1 yuan, up 38.6 yuan (0.42%); the盘面 import profit was - 310 yuan, down 29 yuan (- 10.15%). - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.31%); the futures price of 01509 was 9,406 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 134 yuan, up 21 yuan (18.58%) [1]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Prices and Changes on July 29th compared to the previous value** - Corn: The 2509 contract price at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price was 2,319 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.35%); the basis was 31 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 36.73%); the 9 - 1 spread was 93 yuan, up 13 yuan (16.25%); the south - north trade profit was - 1 yuan, up 20 yuan (95.24%); the import profit was 437 yuan, up 6 yuan (1.46%). - Corn starch: The 2509 contract price was 2,683 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.68%); the basis was - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 120.00%); the 9 - 1 spread was 76 yuan, up 18 yuan (31.03%); the starch - corn盘面 spread was 364 yuan, up 10 yuan (2.82%) [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of sugar 2601 was 5,702 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of sugar 2509 was 5,845 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan (- 0.53%); the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.43 cents per pound, up 0.15 cents (0.92%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 143 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan (15.88%). - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Nanning was 6,050 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,915 yuan, up 35 yuan (0.60%); the Nanning basis was 205 yuan, up 31 yuan (17.82%); the Kunming basis was 70 yuan, up 66 yuan (1650.00%). - **Industry Situation** - The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the national industrial inventory was 304.83 million tons, down 32.21 million tons (- 9.56%) [7]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of cotton 2509 was 14,075 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan (- 0.67%); the price of cotton 2601 was 14,065 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.35%); the ICE US cotton main contract was 68.30 cents per pound, up 0.07 cents (0.10%); the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan per ton, down 45 yuan (- 81.82%). - **Spot Market** - The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B was 15,473 yuan, up 54 yuan (0.35%); the CC Index 3128B was 15,609 yuan, up 60 yuan (0.39%); the FC Index M 1% was 13,721 yuan, down 82 yuan (- 0.59%). - **Industry Situation** - The industrial inventory was 88.21 million tons, down 2.09 million tons (- 2.3%); the import volume was 3.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons (- 25.0%); the textile industry's yarn inventory days were 28.36 days, up 1.13 days (4.1%); the fabric inventory days were 37.24 days, up 0.63 days (1.7%) [10]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the egg 09 contract was 3,576 yuan per 500 kg, down 52 yuan (- 1.43%); the price of the egg 08 contract was 3,360 yuan per 500 kg, down 162 yuan (- 4.60%); the 9 - 8 spread was 216 yuan, up 110 yuan (103.77%). - **Spot Market** - The egg production area price was 3.20 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan (- 4.01%); the basis was - 372 yuan per 500 kg, down 82 yuan (- 28.20%). - **Industry Situation** - The price of egg - laying chicks was 3.88 yuan per chick, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 5.64 yuan per catty, up 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.25, up 0.14 (6.64%); the breeding profit was - 32.98 yuan per chick, up 8.52 yuan (20.53%) [14]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,850 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.35%); the futures price of M2509 was 2,990 yuan, down 31 yuan (- 1.03%); the basis was - 140 yuan, up 21 yuan (13.04%); the Brazilian 9 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 92 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 11.5%). - **Rapeseed Meal** - The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 0.78%); the futures price of RM2509 was 2,660 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%); the basis was - 100 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 5.26%); the Canadian 11 - month shipment schedule's盘面 import profit was 185 yuan, down 47 yuan (- 20.26%). - **Soybeans** - The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the soybean No. 1 main contract was 4,153 yuan, down 71 yuan (- 1.68%); the basis was - 264 yuan, up 71 yuan (26.89%) [19]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2511 was 14,385 yuan, up 175 yuan (1.23%); the 9 - 11 spread was 0 yuan, down 155 yuan (- 100.00. - **Spot Market** - The spot price in Henan was 14,160 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,440 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan; the sample - point slaughterhouse daily volume was 137,328 head, up 538 head (0.39%); the self - breeding profit per week was 62 yuan per head, down 28.7 yuan (- 31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit per week was - 71 yuan per head, down 52.7 yuan (- 282.58%) [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and live pigs prices decline, palm oil and sugar prices rise, while cotton, corn, eggs, and jujubes show fluctuating trends, and apples rise steadily. Each product's price movement is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international trade, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Movement**: The soybean meal 2509 contract drops significantly due to ample supply and long - position liquidation. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve soybean imports, and the domestic soybean meal supply increases with port arrivals and high oil - mill operation rates, leading to inventory accumulation over 1 million tons [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and hold light short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [2]. Palm Oil - **Price Movement**: The palm oil 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. Indonesian palm oil exports surge, with a 4.27% month - on - month decline in inventory in May and a nearly 50% month - on - month increase in exports. In June, exports increased by 30.5% month - on - month. The active promotion of the biodiesel plan and rising domestic import costs support the price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract shows a strong upward trend above all moving averages, with a bullish moving - average arrangement and an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8980 and resistance at 9150 [3]. Live Pigs - **Price Movement**: The live pig 2509 contract drops sharply. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' stable - market policy dampens short - term production - reduction expectations. Weak demand, high temperatures, and increased alternative consumption lead to sluggish pork sales [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14280 and resistance at 14500 [5]. Cotton - **Price Movement**: The cotton 2509 contract oscillates with a negative close. The domestic commercial cotton inventory consumption accelerates, but potential quota increases may add to the supply. Import volume from January to June is 460,000 tons, a 74% year - on - year decrease. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, with poor orders and rising finished - product inventory [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract adjusts at a high level, with long - position liquidation. The price falls below the 5 - day moving average but is supported by the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14090 and resistance at 14205 [7]. Corn - **Price Movement**: The corn 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. The continuous auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has a shrinking transaction rate. Wheat substitution and the approaching spring - corn harvest pressure the price, while imports in June are 156,000 tons, an 82.7% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract fluctuates around short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2308 and resistance at 2330 [9]. Sugar - **Price Movement**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. The high sales rate during the summer consumption peak and low inventory support the price, but the expected increase in imported sugar is a resistance factor [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract stands above the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 5825 and resistance at 5900 [11]. Eggs - **Price Movement**: The egg 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly after large swings. The supply side has high pressure from newly - laid eggs, but hot weather reduces laying rates and inventory is low at all levels. The demand peak is delayed, and the high futures premium limits the rebound space [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract enters a narrow - fluctuation phase after large - scale oscillations, with both long and short positions reducing. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3610 and resistance at 3652 [14]. Soybean Oil - **Price Movement**: The soybean oil 2509 contract oscillates upward, entering an uptrend. The strong performance of palm oil drives soybean oil up, but the high arrival of imported soybeans and rising inventory may limit the increase [15][17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rebounds above the moving - average system, showing a strengthening trend. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8068 and resistance at 8198 [17]. Jujubes - **Price Movement**: The jujube 2601 contract first declines and then rises, showing an oscillating trend. New - jujube production is estimated to be 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease, but the reduction is less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is higher than last year [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract oscillates downward with narrow fluctuations. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10360 and resistance at 10680 [18]. Apples - **Price Movement**: The apple 2510 contract rises steadily. The inventory is at a five - year low, with 704,500 tons as of July 23, a decrease of 101,500 tons from the previous period. The high price of early - maturing apples boosts market confidence, but weather risks exist during the fruit - expansion period [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rises steadily above the moving - average system, hitting a new high, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 7932 and resistance at 8014 [20].

Group 1: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. There is no basis for a significant decline in the market. The market expects a potential market wave in July and August due to the impact of piglet diarrhea at the beginning of the year, but the actual subsequent slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and the live inventory continues to be postponed. The pressure on the upper side of the 09 contract is accumulating. Pay attention to the pressure above 14,500 yuan/ton and operate with a short - bias when the price is high [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract price increased by 8.43% to 450 yuan/ton, the "pig 2511" contract rose 0.11% to 13,620 yuan/ton, and the "pig 2509" contract fell 0.25% to 14,250 yuan/ton. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 7.35%. The main contract positions decreased by 2.17%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in Henan remained unchanged, while those in Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Hunan, and Hebei decreased slightly. The sample point slaughter volume increased by 0.84%, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, the weekly piglet price decreased by 3.20%, the weekly sow price remained unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.30%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34%. The monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% [2]. Group 2: Oil and Fat Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have pulled back from high levels, with limited rebound space and the risk of further decline after the rebound. Domestic palm oil still has the pressure to weaken and adjust, and it is expected to seek support at 8,500 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, the market's digestion of the US sanctions on Russia has put pressure on crude oil, dragging down the vegetable oil market. CBOT soybean oil has maintained a narrow - range shock adjustment. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be high in July - August, but the market's attention has shifted to the limited imports in the fourth quarter, and there will be positive factors in August [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.36%, the futures price of Y2509 increased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 5.08%. For palm oil, the current price in Guangdong decreased by 0.34%, the futures price of P2509 decreased by 0.46%, and the basis changed significantly. For rapeseed oil, the current price in Jiangsu increased by 0.31%, the futures price of Ol209 increased by 0.21%, and the basis increased by 43.10%. There were also changes in cross - period spreads and price differences between different oils [4]. Group 3: Corn Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View On July 15, the transaction volume of imported corn auctions reached a new low. With the depletion of remaining grain, traders are more likely to support prices, and the overall price is stable with partial rebounds. The downstream deep - processing industry is in the seasonal maintenance period, and the demand from the breeding end is mainly for rigid replenishment. In the medium term, the tight supply of corn and the increase in breeding consumption will support the corn price. In the short term, the weak market sentiment is gradually being released, and the corn price is stabilizing, with the futures market remaining volatile. Attention should be paid to the scale and transaction of subsequent auctions [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the "corn 2509" contract decreased by 0.30%, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, the basis increased by 14.58%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.81%, and the import profit decreased by 2.83%. For corn starch, the price of the "corn starch 2509" contract decreased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 11.32%. The positions of both increased, while the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on the price of raw sugar, which is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. The domestic market demand is weak, and the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. However, the entry of processed sugar into the market has put pressure on prices. Considering the increase in future imports, the domestic supply - demand situation will gradually ease. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias strategy after the price rebounds, with the pressure reference range of 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Indicators**: The price of the "sugar 2601" contract decreased by 0.07%, the "sugar 2509" contract decreased by 0.26%, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 1.53%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 6.18%. The main contract positions decreased by 3.20%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12%, and the effective forecast decreased by 100% [8]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, while that in Kunming increased by 0.43%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased, and the price difference with Nanning also decreased [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 23.07%, the cumulative national sales rate increased by 9.70%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [8]. Group 5: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry has intensified, with the downstream profits, cash flow deteriorating, and the开机 rate decreasing while the finished - product inventory increasing. However, the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is listed is difficult to resolve, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately strong range, while it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures Market Prices**: The price of the "cotton 2509" contract decreased by 0.18%, the "cotton 2601" contract increased by 0.04%, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.68%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50%. The main contract positions decreased by 1.98%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.93%, and the effective forecast increased by 3.24% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price, CC Index, and FC Index all increased to varying degrees. Some price differences also changed [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9%, the import volume decreased by 33.3%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.9%. The yarn inventory days increased by 14.1%, and the grey - cloth inventory days increased by 3.2%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the clothing and textile retail sales increased by 4.0% [9]. Group 6: Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The excellent rate of US soybeans exceeds market expectations, and the market is worried about the impact of tariffs. The futures market remains at the bottom. The Brazilian soybean premium is continuously rising, and the Brazilian soybeans are relatively strong. Currently, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continue to rise, the开机 rate remains high, and the basis fluctuates at a low level. Although the subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, and the basis decline space is limited. The soybean meal main contract has returned above the 20 - day moving average, and with the stabilization of US soybeans and the increase in premiums, the domestic futures market may have further upward space. It is recommended to operate with a cautious long - bias [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures and Spot Data**: For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of M2509 decreased by 0.47%, and the basis increased by 8.64%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.39%, the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 0.15%, and the basis increased by 12.84%. For soybeans, the spot price in Harbin remained unchanged, the futures price of the soybean - one main contract increased by 0.44%, and the basis decreased by 10.53%. The basis of the soybean - two main contract increased by 39.13% [11]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The soybean meal cross - period spread decreased by 27.59%, the rapeseed meal cross - period spread decreased by 3.38%, the oil - meal ratio increased slightly, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [6] - **Pigs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Oscillating (short - term), Oscillating weakly (long - term) [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market is generally in a state of oscillation. Each variety is affected by different factors, including supply, demand, weather, and policy. For example, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate weakly due to factors such as good soybean growth and the palm oil production season, while protein meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term with cost support [5][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, but the current growth is good. - **Industry Information**: As of June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The 2025 U.S. soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the expected 83.655 million acres. As of June 1, 2025, the U.S. old - crop soybean inventory was 1.01 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year [5]. - **Logic**: The U.S. soybean planting area being slightly lower than expected and the quarterly inventory being higher than expected offset each other. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the industrial side shows that U.S. soybean growth is good, and the palm oil production pressure may decrease marginally in June. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly, but factors such as trade uncertainties and the expected increase in overseas biodiesel consumption of oils may support prices [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The strong Brazilian soybean premium provides cost support for the Dalian soybean meal futures. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 41.63 yuan/ton, up 3.71% week - on - week [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the U.S. soybean area is in line with expectations, but the quarterly inventory is increased. Brazil's soybean exports are strong, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, soybean arrivals increase, oil mills' inventory accumulates, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, but cost support exists in the long - run [6]. - **Outlook**: The U.S. soybean is expected to oscillate in a range. Domestic soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price points on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The imported corn auction was sold at a premium, and the spot price remains firm. - **Industry Information**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the domestic corn average price was 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is mainly rising. The trade volume is reluctant to sell, and the demand is squeezed by wheat. The imported corn auction has limited volume and was sold at a premium. New - crop corn growth is affected by weather [8]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the supply - demand gap expectation, the price may rise, but there may be callbacks due to potential negative impacts of policy - grain auctions [8]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the impact of subsequent rainfall needs attention. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the Henan live pig (foreign ternary) price was 15.15 yuan/kg, up 1% month - on - month, and the live pig futures closing price was 13,865 yuan/ton, down 0.04% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but farmers still have the intention to hold back. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets is increasing, and in the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The demand is weak, and the inventory is partially transferred [9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the average slaughter weight is decreasing, farmers' intention to hold back still exists, and it is currently the off - season for consumption [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The rubber price rose in the afternoon following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 18% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market rose, and the rubber price followed. The raw material price is firm, providing bottom - support. The supply is expected to increase, but the demand is expected to decrease [11]. - **Outlook**: Before new fundamental guidance emerges, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price followed the overall commodity trend, first falling and then rising. - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is relatively warm, and the futures price is stable and oscillating. The fundamental trading is not significant, and it mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and the overall commodity market. The overall operating level has declined, and the inventory has slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures has slowed down due to the upward revision of the U.S. cotton planting area. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,211, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2][13]. - **Logic**: In the new - crop season, the production of China and other major cotton - producing countries is expected to increase. The U.S. cotton planting area is revised upward. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing support [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Due to the lack of positive factors, the sugar price continues to lack upward momentum. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [15]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar - making season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated imported sugar arrivals. Internationally, the new - crop production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the pulp futures maintain a weak operation. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp import volume remains high, the price is in a downward trend, the demand is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory is high. The pulp price is under pressure to fall, but it is risky to short at the current low level [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules [16]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The market has returned to fundamental - driven, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory has decreased due to reduced arrivals, but it is the consumption off - season. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the far - month contracts are expected to be weak due to the weak fundamentals [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The far - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report also lists the sections for data monitoring of various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [20][39][52]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak", with corresponding explanations of expected price changes and the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks [169].

Report Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed performance. Soybean meal rebounds from a low level, while oils fluctuate. Hog prices decline, sugar continues to rise, and other products also present different trends influenced by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and upcoming reports [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract rebounds from a low level as short - covering occurs before the USDA report. However, with abundant domestic imported soybeans, high oil - mill operation rates, and increasing supply and inventory, the futures price is still under pressure. Technically, it remains weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 2942 and resistance at 2974 [2]. Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract shows a volatile trend of first decline then rise, waiting for the US soybean planting report. Domestic soybean imports and oil - mill压榨量 are high, leading to relatively loose supply and rising inventory, pressuring the futures price. Technically, it turns weak, and a light - short - position strategy is suggested with support at 7920 and resistance at 8012 [3]. Palm Oil - The 2509 contract first declines then rises, narrowing the decline. Crude oil decline, increased Malaysian palm oil production, and slow exports, along with falling domestic import costs and inventory accumulation, pressure the price. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 8256 and resistance at 8380 [6]. Cotton - The 2509 contract rises then falls as long - profit - taking occurs. Xinjiang's de - stocking and low imports support the price, but the textile off - season, few new orders, and reduced spinning - mill开机率 limit the upside. Technically, it remains strong, and a light - long - position strategy on dips is advised with support at 13695 and resistance at 13920 [7][9]. Sugar - The 2509 contract continues to rise in a volatile manner, boosted by the rebound of ICE raw sugar due to possible lower Brazilian production in June and the domestic consumption peak season. With low inventory and slow imports, the price is supported. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position strategy on dips is continued with support at 5780 [10]. Hog - The 2509 contract drops significantly from a high level. High inventory and reduced demand due to rising temperatures, increased substitute consumption, and school holidays pressure the price. Technically, it turns weak, and long - positions should be closed with support at 13750 and resistance at 13970 [12]. Egg - The 2508 contract opens low and closes high, showing a volatile rebound. Market speculation on lower summer egg - laying rates may reduce supply pressure, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and cautious trading limit the upside. Technically, short - positions should be closed with support at 3500 and resistance at 3574 [14]. Corn - The 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. Tight supply from low grassroots grain and wheat support are offset by import auction expectations and wheat substitution, resulting in a narrow - range market. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 2370 and resistance at 2386 [17]. Red Date - The 2509 contract falls from a high level. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may reduce production, but the traditional off - season and increasing inventory lead to a high - level adjustment. Technically, there is callback pressure, and long - positions should be reduced with support at 9500 and resistance at 9700 [18][20]. Apple - The 2510 contract shows a volatile negative trend. The expected production reduction did not materialize, but low inventory supports the price while substitute fruits impact consumption. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 7646 and resistance at 7780 [21].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【菜粕&菜油】 【豆一】 国产大豆表现为下跌态势。美豆表现弱势,因短期天气对作物有利,市场也在等待月底种植面积报告。国产大 豆基层余粮不多，政策端在进行拍卖补充。短期关注美豆面积报告的指引,并持续关注天气的表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 今日豆 ...

Group 1: Soybean and Oilseed Market - CBOT soybeans showed a stable yet weak performance, with NOPA's soybean crush hitting a historical high for the same period but below expectations, while rainfall in production areas may slow down planting progress [1] - Domestic soybean meal saw an increase in positions and strong performance, driven by accelerated purchases from domestic oil mills, with September shipments at about 20% and uncertainty in long-term supply supporting futures prices [1] - BMD palm oil fell after three consecutive days of gains due to profit-taking and a decline in US soybean oil, while international crude oil remained strong amid geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Pork and Egg Market - September live hog futures closed with a slight gain, with prices in Henan province rising to 14.27 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating a stable support for futures prices [1] - The main contract for egg futures experienced a decline, with a 1.03% drop to 3545 yuan/500kg, despite a rise in national egg prices, as supply remains ample and consumption is weak [1] Group 3: Corn Market - Corn futures showed a reduction in positions with a near-weak and far-strong trend, as the main funds shifted from July to September contracts, which are fluctuating around the 2400 yuan mark [1] - The spot market saw support from rising wheat prices, with strong prices in Northeast China and stability in North China, while demand for corn remains robust as enterprises increase forward orders [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils are volatile, with palm oil and soybean oil facing downward pressure due to supply - related factors, while corn has stabilized and rebounded. Sugar continues to be weak, and various other agricultural products such as livestock, cotton, eggs, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Palm Oil - Market situation: Malaysian palm oil exports are strong, with India's May imports surging 87% to 600,000 tons, but the producing area is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market expects May's Malaysian palm oil inventory to reach 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% month - on - month increase. In the domestic market, inventory increased to 364,000 tons as of May 30, a 7.47% month - on - month increase, and demand is weak [2]. - Strategy: Light - position short - term short, with support at 8048 and resistance at 8192 for the 2509 contract [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market situation: Domestic imported soybeans arrive in large quantities, oil mill operating rates increase, and soybean meal supply rises. As of the end of May, inventory increased to 300,000 tons, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the price shows resilience [3]. - Strategy: Close short positions, conduct short - term trading, with support at 2942 and resistance at 2981 for the 2509 contract [3]. (3) Soybean Oil - Market situation: A large number of imported soybeans arrive in the country, oil mill crushing volume is high, and soybean oil inventory increases significantly, reaching 754,900 tons as of May 30, a 5.77% month - on - month increase. Post - Dragon Boat Festival demand is insufficient, and the price faces downward pressure [6]. - Strategy: Light - position short at high prices, with support at 7612 and resistance at 7682 for the 2509 contract [6]. (4) Sugar - Market situation: Northern hemisphere sugar producers like India and Thailand have good production prospects, and Brazil's dry weather is favorable for sugarcane crushing. International raw sugar prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, expected imports will increase due to open import profit windows and license issuance, and the price is under pressure [7][9]. - Strategy: Light - position short at high prices, with support at 5712 and resistance at 5750 for the 2509 contract [9]. (5) Corn - Market situation: New wheat is on the market, and the substitution supply increases, but the remaining grain in the producing areas is exhausted, supply is tight, and port inventory continues to decline, supporting the price [11]. - Strategy: Light - position long, with support at 2320 and resistance at 2340 for the 2507 contract [11]. (6) Live Pigs - Market situation: The pig inventory of breeding farms is at a high level, the daily slaughter pressure increases, and the downstream demand is weak, in the seasonal off - season, resulting in downward pressure on the price [12]. - Strategy: Light - position short, with support at 13380 and resistance at 13545 for the 2509 contract [12]. (7) Cotton - Market situation: The textile industry is in the consumption off - season, orders are scarce, inventory removal is slow, and demand for cotton raw materials is weak [15]. - Strategy: Light - position short - term short, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13305 for the 2509 contract [15]. (8) Eggs - Market situation: The laying - hen inventory is high, and the production capacity reduction is slow. As of the end of May, the inventory is about 1.334 billion. After the festival, consumption declines, and the storage difficulty increases during the plum - rain and high - temperature season, leading to downward pressure on the price [16][18]. - Strategy: Light - position short, with support at 2857 and resistance at 2901 for the 2507 contract [18]. (9) Apples - Market situation: The remaining apple inventory in the producing areas is low, and the new - season apple bagging work is advancing, with some areas having a production - reduction expectation, supporting the price [19]. - Strategy: Light - position long at low prices, with support at 7680 and resistance at 7760 for the 2510 contract [22]. (10) Peanuts - Market situation: After the previous price increase, the trading atmosphere is dull, the upper - hand volume at the grass - roots level is limited, and the oil mill purchases are coming to an end. The price is in a volatile consolidation [23]. - Strategy: Short - term trading, if the 10 - day moving average is broken again, light - position short, with support at 8340 and resistance at 8426 for the 2510 contract [23].