研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 3 月 4 日 【粕类日报】天气状况好转 盘面整体下行 F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/3/4 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3003 | -11 | 天津 | 260 | 260 | 0 | | 0 5 | | 2829 | - 7 | 东莞 | 200 | 200 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2944 | -12 | | 180 | 180 | 0 | | | | | | 日照 | 200 | 200 | 0 | | 0 1 | | 2313 | -10 | 南通 | 217 | 210 | 7 | | 菜粕 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: After the bullish factors of increased production are largely realized in February when the Northern Hemisphere starts to end the sugar - crushing season, international sugar prices may rebound. Currently, the domestic import sugar supply is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space of sugar prices is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [3][4]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates widely at a high level due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market. In the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [6][9]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives up the price of US soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the import cost rises. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [12][13]. - **Oils and Fats**: Driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate, and the medium - term price of oils and fats is bullish. In the short term, due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, the price of oils and fats fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then go long [15][17]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contracts may show weak fluctuations due to valuation support, while the long - term contracts have positive expectations, but the path to achieve profitability is uncertain. It is advisable to maintain a short - selling strategy [19][20]. - **Pigs**: The large basic supply and the accumulation of live - pig inventories make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. The near - term contracts may still be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The long - term contracts may have support after following the downward trend, considering the high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and the expected recovery of consumption demand [22][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5224 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5270 - 5370 yuan/ton, up 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 49 from 54 in the previous week, and the sugar quantity decreased to 1.5644 million tons from 1.7826 million tons. StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. India's sugar production as of January 31, 2026, reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 crushing season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 1.57 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,012 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. The export to China in that week was 8800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year. The US production forecast was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained at 4.08 million tons, India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's total cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [6][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2731 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2238 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons this season. StoneX's latest forecast for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is a record - high 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year and a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the five - year average. The soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, a 3.4 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year and a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price declined. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8104 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 9042 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9144 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8670 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The market's forward - looking forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month. The export was 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on bio - fuel tax credits, and the public hearing is scheduled for May. The data released by shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively month - on - month. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample inventory of the three major oils and fats decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons [15][16]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Most egg prices across the country declined yesterday, with a few remaining stable. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.09 yuan to 3.47 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.2 yuan to 3.1 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 2.82 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the market digestion was slow, and the traders' cautious sentiment increased. It is expected that most egg prices across the country may decline in the short term, while a few areas may see stable prices [19]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Domestic pig prices mainly declined yesterday, with some areas showing small increases. The average price in Henan increased 0.14 yuan to 12.36 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased 0.23 yuan to 11.54 yuan/kg. The northern pig - farmers still had the sentiment of reducing sales and hoarding, which may support the pig prices to be relatively strong. The supply in the southern market did not change much, and the demand was also average, so there was no condition for price increase for now, and the prices may remain stable [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global new - crop soybean production has been marginally reduced, and the total output is now equal to the total demand. The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. With large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories but fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking rate is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [4]. - For palm oil, the outlook for first - quarter inventory depends on production and export data. If production remains high and exports are sluggish, prices may decline unilaterally; if production returns to a lower - than - normal trend, it could stimulate buying and drive up prices. Short - term operations guided by high - frequency data are recommended [8]. - For sugar, the raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of Brazil's ethanol conversion price. After the northern hemisphere's sugar harvest in February next year, international sugar prices may rebound. With a decreasing supply of imported sugar in China, the price may continue to rebound in the short term [12]. - For cotton, the market had anticipated the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang. The current price is at a recent high with increased volatility. Fundamentally, the off - season is not weak, and the supply - demand balance, combined with positive expectations, supports the price. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to go long [16][17]. - For eggs, after a price drop, there is reluctance to sell in the spot market, and with upcoming consumer stocking and chicken culling, the market outlook is improving. However, the absolute supply pressure still weighs on the spot and near - month contracts. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term selling on rallies for near - month contracts and long - term attention to the upper pressure for far - month contracts are recommended [20]. - For hogs, the combination of reduced group sales and the entry of second - round fattening has led to a less - than - expected price drop after the Winter Solstice, causing more short - covering in the futures market. Spot strength may continue in the short term. However, the current supply tightness is mainly structural, and the large - scale supply and heavy pig weights remain the main factors. A strategy of selling on rallies for near - month contracts and long - term attention to the lower support for far - month contracts is maintained [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Brazil's soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and Argentina has good soil moisture but less rainfall in some areas in the future. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan/ton on Monday, with weak trading volume and high pick - up volume. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.0644 million tons, up from 1.8404 million tons last week. Last week, feed enterprises' inventory days increased by 0.22 days to 9.45 days, soybean inventory decreased by 400,000 tons (but was about 500,000 tons higher year - on - year), and oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 30,000 tons (about 460,000 tons higher year - on - year) [2]. - **Weather**: Forecasts show that there will be more rainfall in the main soybean - growing areas of Brazil in the next two weeks, while the main producing provinces in Argentina will have less rainfall. The weather situation needs continuous monitoring [2]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% in the first 25 days of December compared to the same period. Ship - tracking data indicates mixed export trends. In the domestic market on Monday, palm oil prices declined slightly, while rapeseed oil prices rose, and domestic palm oil inventory is high. The basis for various oils is as follows: Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil 05 - 40 (0) yuan/ton, Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil 05 + 500 (0) yuan/ton, and East China rapeseed oil 05 + 700 (0) yuan/ton [6]. - **Argentina Situation**: Argentina exported 6.48 million tons of soybean oil in the first 11 months of this year, less than in 2024. With reduced soybean processing expected, further shipments are likely to be lower than last year. Argentina's soybean inventory at the beginning of December was 4.5 million tons, lower than last year [6]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices dropped slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5,253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton or 0.61%. Spot prices in various regions also declined. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 57 yuan/ton [10]. - **Import and Production Data**: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of the end of November, imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. Brazil's mid - southern region's sugar production and cane - crushing volume in the second half of November decreased significantly year - on - year, and India's cumulative sugar production as of December 15 increased year - on - year [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices decreased. The closing price of the May contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 0.69%. The spot price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B increased, and the basis between the spot and the main contract was 1,106 yuan/ton [14]. - **Industry News**: In December 2025, Xinjiang held a meeting to discuss reducing cotton planting area. In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As of December 26, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.7%, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the national egg prices were generally stable with minor adjustments. The average price in the main producing areas rose slightly to 3 yuan/jin. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream market had slow sales, and traders were less willing to buy. It is expected that today's prices may be stable in some areas and decline in others [19]. Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic hog prices mostly rose, with some areas seeing small declines. The average price in Henan increased by 0.16 yuan to 12.58 yuan/kg, while in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.04 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg. Some farmers reduced their sales at the end of the month, which was beneficial to prices, but the slaughterhouses' acceptance of high prices was limited, and the trading volume was low [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Protein Meal**: With support from costs and pressured crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is support as the de - stocking season approaches [3][5]. - **Oils**: Palm oil prices are currently suppressed by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia. However, the current inventory build - up may reverse in Q1 next year due to seasonal factors. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [7][9]. - **Sugar**: Newly estimated increases in production from major sugar - producing countries will shift the global supply - demand balance from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may lack significant upward momentum until Q1 next year. With the continued opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, a bearish view is maintained, but short - term观望 is advised due to low domestic sugar prices [12][13]. - **Cotton**: Although the peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad, and the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest has been digested. Uncertainty over the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy has led to short - term capital inflows, but the likelihood of a unilateral trend is low due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure [16][18]. - **Eggs**: The futures market previously overestimated the peak - season inventory build - up, resulting in high premiums. In the near term, the futures market will likely squeeze out premiums, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. In the long term, although there is an expectation of capacity reduction, the overall supply decline is limited, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [19][20]. - **Pigs**: As consumption is set to increase, the spot market will drive the futures market to stabilize. However, the near - term rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rebounds after the consumption - driven rebound. In the long term, with the theme of capacity reduction and low valuations, it is advisable to consider reverse spreads or go long on distant contracts [22][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to slow US soybean sales and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fluctuated by 10 - 20 yuan/ton over the weekend. Last week, soybean meal trading volume decreased, and提货 also declined. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1306 million tons, slightly higher than last week's 2.1206 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.23, up 0.1 days from the previous week [3]. - **Weather**: Forecasts indicate above - normal rainfall in major Brazilian soybean - growing regions in the next two weeks, and normal rainfall in major Argentine regions, except for Buenos Aires Province, where rainfall is expected to be low [3]. - **Strategy**: With support from costs and pressured crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 6.87% in the first ten days of December but decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. Shipments decreased by 15.89% - 16.37% in the first 15 days of December. As of December 1, 2025, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.623 million tons, and November's edible vegetable oil imports were 1.151 million tons, with both month - on - month and year - on - year consumption decreasing. On December 19, Indonesia announced the start of B50 biodiesel road tests, expected to last about six months, with the policy likely to be implemented in H2 2026 [7]. - **Strategy**: High palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia this year has suppressed prices. In the short term, poor export data and high - year - on - year production are driving prices down. However, the current inventory build - up may reverse in Q1 next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [9]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weak. The May contract closed at 5,088 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while processing plant prices remained stable. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In the second half of November, Brazil's central - southern region had a 21.08% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing and a 32.94% decrease in sugar production. As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 172,000 tons [11][12]. - **Strategy**: With expected increases in production from major sugar - producing countries, the global sugar market will shift from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may lack upward momentum until Q1 next year. With the continued opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, a bearish view is maintained, but short - term观望 is advised due to low domestic sugar prices [13]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose slightly. The May contract closed at 14,015 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose 6 yuan/ton to 15,145 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 900,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons. As of December 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week and 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. The USDA's December report estimated the 2025/26 global cotton production at 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from November [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Although the peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad, and the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest has been digested. Uncertainty over the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy has led to short - term capital inflows, but the likelihood of a unilateral trend is low due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure [17][18]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mostly stable, with some areas slightly weaker. Egg supply is sufficient, and downstream demand is average. There is a risk of a slight decline in egg prices at the beginning of the week, but prices may rebound slightly later as the New Year approaches and traders may replenish inventory [19]. - **Strategy**: The futures market previously overestimated the peak - season inventory build - up, resulting in high premiums. In the near term, the futures market will likely squeeze out premiums, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. In the long term, although there is an expectation of capacity reduction, the overall supply decline is limited, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [20]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices trended lower. Some farms may increase supply at the end of the year, and demand may decline slightly after the Winter Solstice. However, after continuous price drops, farmers' resistance to selling has increased, and short - term prices may rise in the north and stabilize in the south [22]. - **Strategy**: As consumption is set to increase, the spot market will drive the futures market to stabilize. However, the near - term rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is recommended to sell on rebounds after the consumption - driven rebound. In the long term, with the theme of capacity reduction and low valuations, it is advisable to consider reverse spreads or go long on distant contracts [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: SPPOMA's production data decline supports the market. Malaysian BMD futures may rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Domestic Dalian palm oil may find support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate between 8200 - 8300 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy may reduce industrial use. Brazilian soybean harvest may pressure CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term, but inventory may decrease during the Spring Festival, with limited basis fluctuation [1]. - Rapeseed oil: US crude oil price movements affect the domestic vegetable oil market. Watch if the 05 contract can stop falling between 8900 - 9000 yuan. Spot prices fluctuate slightly [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices are stable, with increased southern pickling demand. December - January prices are uncertain due to potential pandemic impact and secondary fattening. Spot market has some support from farmers' reluctance to sell. The futures market may adjust narrowly [3]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure due to a favorable supply outlook. Brazilian, Indian, and Thai sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic sugar futures are weak due to increased supply, and prices are likely to remain bearish [7]. 2.4 Meal Industry - US soybeans lack trading highlights, and South American new - crop soybeans have a high yield expectation. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the one - to - five spread is supported, but the upside is limited [9]. 2.5 Corn Industry - Short - term corn supply increase may pressure prices, but farmers' reluctance to sell and low - inventory enterprises' restocking needs limit the decline. The market is in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 2.6 Red Date Industry - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. Futures prices are weak, while spot prices are stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved consumption during the peak season [17]. 2.7 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. US cotton exports showed a mixed trend. Domestic cotton has a long - term optimistic outlook but faces short - term downstream pressure. The price may face resistance around 14050 - 14100 yuan [21]. 2.8 Egg Industry - Egg prices are rising gradually, leading to farmers' reluctance to sell. Supply remains sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 8460 yuan, futures price (Y2605) to 8096 yuan, basis increased by 7.69% [1]. - Palm oil: Spot price in Guangdong dropped to 8380 yuan, futures price (P2605) to 8398 yuan, basis increased by 60.87% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Spot price in Jiangsu dropped to 9570 yuan, futures price (O1605) to 9157 yuan, basis increased by 19.71% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Inter - month spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [1]. - Spreads between different oils also changed, such as the soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (e.g., 2605, 2603) increased slightly. Spot prices in various regions had different changes, with an overall upward trend in some areas [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - Slaughter volume increased by 2.48%, while some prices (e.g., daily strip price, piglet price) decreased slightly. Breeding profits improved [3]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Domestic futures prices of sugar showed a weakening trend, and spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. Import sugar prices also declined [7]. 3.3.2 Industry Situation - National and regional sugar production and sales data changed significantly, with a decrease in production and sales in some areas and an increase in imports [7]. 3.4 Meal Industry 3.4.1 Price and Basis Changes - Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices had different trends, with basis changes. Imported soybean prices were stable, and the basis of some contracts increased [9]. 3.4.2 Market Factors - US soybean is under pressure from South American supply. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and market sentiment affects the spread [9]. 3.5 Corn Industry 3.5.1 Price and Inventory Changes - Corn futures and spot prices decreased slightly, and inventory in some warehouses and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. Corn starch futures price increased slightly [10]. 3.5.2 Market Situation - Supply and demand factors, such as farmers' selling behavior and enterprises' procurement, affect the corn market, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation [10]. 3.6 Red Date Industry 3.6.1 Price and Position Changes - Futures prices of red dates decreased slightly, and spot prices in Cangzhou had different trends. The position and the number of warehouse receipts increased [14]. 3.6.2 Market Situation - Sales area arrivals are high, but transactions are lower than expected. The market is weak in the short - term, with potential improvement during the consumption peak [17]. 3.7 Cotton Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Domestic cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly. ICE cotton futures rose [21]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - Commercial and industrial inventories, import volume, and other indicators changed, with downstream inventory accumulation and marginal profit deterioration [21]. 3.8 Egg Industry 3.8.1 Price and Basis Changes - Egg futures prices decreased, and the basis increased. Egg - related prices (e.g., egg - chick price, culled - hen price) had different trends [23]. 3.8.2 Market Situation - Egg supply is sufficient, with stable production and reduced circulation inventory. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soybeans and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range as the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season, providing some support [2][3]. - For oils, the recent data is bearish. Although palm oil production has exceeded expectations this year, the situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [5][7]. - Regarding sugar, the estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10][11]. - In the case of cotton, the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [13][14]. - For eggs, the near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. - As for pigs, the spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed down. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volume but good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons, slightly higher than last week. Last week, domestic soybeans and soybean meal both destocked, but the inventory is still high year - on - year. Brazilian and Argentine main producing areas are expected to have more rainfall, and the global soybeans' annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still high [2]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of soybean import costs may have appeared, but the upward space needs greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but they are entering the destocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [3]. Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.87% in the first ten days of December and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. Ship - shipping agency data indicates a 15.89% - 16.37% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 15 days of December. As of November 30, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory reached a seven - month high. On Tuesday, domestic oils fell due to poor palm oil export data and high - frequency production [5]. - **Strategy**: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, and poor export data has suppressed the market. However, the situation of inventory accumulation may reverse. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. Spot sugar prices in various regions also declined. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, and Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 crushing season but may decrease in the 2026/27 season. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports has decreased [9][10]. - **Strategy**: The estimated increase in sugar production in major producing countries in the new crushing season has led to a shift from a shortage to a surplus in the global supply - demand relationship. International sugar prices may not improve much until the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices first rose and then fell. The spot price index increased, and the basis widened. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate remained flat week - on - week, and the national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year. The global cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 year has been slightly adjusted [13]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton is low. Although there is some demand and the previous price decline has digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest, the news of subsidy policy adjustment is unconfirmed and there is hedging pressure [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. Supply was stable, market sales improved slightly, and demand increased. Short - term egg prices are expected to be mostly stable, with a few areas showing a slight upward trend [16][17]. - **Strategy**: The near - term contracts are mainly in a process of squeezing the premium, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds. The long - term contracts have the expectation of capacity reduction, but the valuation is high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices fluctuated slightly. Most farmers may still be on the sidelines, and the price trend varies by region [20]. - **Strategy**: The spot market is warming up, but the near - term contracts' rebound space is limited due to high supply. It is advisable to sell after the consumption rebound. The long - term contracts have a low valuation and the theme of capacity reduction, so attention should be paid to the lower support [21].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on December 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Views - Palm oil:减产未明确，偏弱震荡运行 [2] - Soybean oil:美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 [2] - Soybean meal:美豆小幅收跌，连粕或震荡 [2] - Soybean:现货稳中偏强，盘面调整震荡 [2] - Corn:关注现货 [2] - Sugar:偏弱运行 [2] - Cotton:震荡偏强关注下游需求20251216 [2] - Eggs:震荡调整 [2] - Hogs:冬至需求预期落地，仓单增量 [2] - Peanuts:关注油厂收购 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of palm oil futures had a decline, with a -0.58% drop in the day - session and -1.43% at night. The trading volume decreased by 32,641 hands, and the open interest decreased by 7,815 hands. The spot price in Guangdong dropped by 80 yuan/ton. [5] - **News**: AmSpec and ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.37% and 15.89% respectively compared to the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October. [6][8] Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of soybean oil futures was 8,558 yuan/ton in the day - session with a -0.22% drop and 8,436 yuan/ton at night with a -3.72% drop. The trading volume increased by 15,699 hands, and the open interest decreased by 21,110 hands. The spot price in Guangdong dropped by 50 yuan/ton. [5] - **News**: NOPA data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in November decreased by 5.1% compared to October but increased by 11.8% compared to the same period in 2024. The soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies reached a seven - month high. USDA reported private exporters' sales of 13.6 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 delivery. [9][10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: For DCE soybean 2601, the day - session closing price was 4,130 yuan/ton with a -0.51% drop, and 4,084 yuan/ton at night with a -1.40% drop. For DCE soybean meal 2605, the day - session closing price was 2,758 yuan/ton with a -0.54% drop, and 2,748 yuan/ton at night with a -0.51% drop. [13] - **News**: On December 15, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined due to concerns about US soybean exports and the expected harvest in Brazil. Private exporters reported sales of 13.6 tons of soybeans to China in 2025/2026. NOPA's November soybean crushing volume decreased by 5.1% from October but increased by 11.83% from the same period last year. [13][15] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,228 yuan/ton in the day - session with a -0.67% drop and 2,226 yuan/ton at night with a -0.09% drop. The trading volume of C2601 decreased by 10,638 hands, and the open interest decreased by 47,264 hands. [17] - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping collection price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain collection price remained flat. The price in Guangdong Shekou was stable, and the container price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were relatively stable, and North China prices were stable with a slight increase. [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.93 cents/pound with a -0.17 change. The mainstream spot price was 5,370 yuan/ton with a -10 change. The futures main contract price was 5,207 yuan/ton with a -7 change. [20] - **News**: As of December 15, the 25/26 sugar - making season in India had a 28.3% increase in sugar production year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year, and exports in November decreased by 9 tons year - on - year. China's sugar imports in October increased by 21 tons, and imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased by 11 tons. [20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,990 yuan/ton in the day - session with a 1.01% increase and 14,020 yuan/ton at night with a 0.21% increase. The trading volume increased by 154,405 hands, and the open interest increased by 13,531 hands. [25] - **News**: Cotton spot trading volume increased significantly. Cotton yarn prices had local fluctuations, with the overall off - season atmosphere remaining strong. ICE cotton futures had a small increase but then declined due to poor export data. [26] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of eggs 2601 was 3,122 yuan/500 kilograms with a 1.23% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 69,982 hands, and the open interest decreased by 4,363 hands. [29] Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 11,480 yuan/ton with a 50 increase. The futures prices of hogs 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 11,400 yuan/ton, 11,305 yuan/ton, and 11,905 yuan/ton respectively. [32] - **News**: Multiple companies registered hog futures warehouse receipts in December, including Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, etc. [33] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,090 yuan/ton with a -0.02% drop, and the trading volume decreased by 5,391 hands, and the open interest decreased by 6,720 hands. [36] - **News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in different regions had different trends. In Henan, prices were basically stable; in Jilin, prices were weak; in Liaoning, prices were stable with a slight decline; in Shandong, prices were basically stable. [37]

Group 1: General Information - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on December 5, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Market Information - On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose, Brazilian soybean premiums increased, and the cost of imported soybeans slightly rose. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton. Meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. Last week, feed enterprises' inventory days were 8.17 days, up 0.19 days from the previous week. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal stocks increased last week due to high crushing volume, and apparent consumption was flat compared to the previous period [2] - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 89% of the expected area. USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. However, since the global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio for the forecast year is still relatively high, it is not enough to generate a market with high planting profits on the CBOT soybean futures. It is expected that the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate without significant problems in South American weather [3] Strategy - The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, soybean meal inventory is large, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared to the same period last month, is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increase by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects palm oil prices to slightly correct in the near future. Market expectations of a large month - on - month decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in November may cause inventories to rise to a six - and - a - half - year high, waiting for MPOB data. Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December, and concerns about floods have eased, which is negative for palm oil prices. However, the expected production cut in November is starting to materialize, and rainfall in the producing areas will increase seasonally in December, supporting the price bottom. The correction is expected to be limited [7] - On Thursday, domestic fats and oils gave back some gains, and foreign investors increased short positions in the three major fats and oils. The expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in November and less purchasing by India in November are suppressing the market. There is still an expectation of destocking in the medium term, waiting for clear data [8] Strategy - Excessive production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia is suppressing the market, and high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot continue, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its recent high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - correction strategy [10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5,328 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,410 - 5,510 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the new sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,820 yuan/ton, down 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot sugar to the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 82 yuan/ton [11] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; as of the end of November, the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and sugar production was 983,000 tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [11] Strategy - It is currently estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve much. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the general direction is still bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are already at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short games has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when prices fall [12] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,998 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B to the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,208 yuan/ton [14] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared to last week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the five - year average of 72.1%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production in the latest USDA monthly supply - demand report was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the US production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; India's production remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [15] Strategy - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in futures prices had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds have entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there is no strong driving force for now. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trending market is not high [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.04 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and that in Guantao remained at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was basically normal, the downstream digestion speed was slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory in each link increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg prices will mostly be stable, with a few declining [19] Strategy - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory build - up and capacity reduction. In the short term, this reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory build - up and capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts on the futures market cannot be falsified for now. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal stocking ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [20] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly declined, with some areas stable or slightly rising. The average price in Henan rose 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained at 11.34 yuan/kg. Farmers were active in selling pigs, the market supply was abundant, and the demand was also slowly increasing. Today, pig prices are expected to be mainly stable, with prices in areas with large supply continuing to decline, and prices in some northern areas with limited supply may rise slightly [22] Strategy - The theoretical number of pigs for slaughter is still large, the completion rate of large - scale farms' slaughter plans is average. Under the background of increased slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the release of second - fattening pens by small farmers is slow. The supply - side pressure remains, and there will be further increases in the future. In contrast, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic curing activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures valuation is not low and the spot market is driving the price down, a strategy of shorting the near - month contracts or reverse arbitrage is recommended [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn price is rising, and the yield per unit is expected to be further adjusted downward, but the production remains at a high level, with the U.S. corn showing a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn is declining. The spot price of corn in the northern ports of China is rising, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong, while that in North China is weakening. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is narrowing. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The 01 - contract corn showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the spot basis strengthened. The 01 - contract corn has limited room for rebound [4][7][8]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has increased, the spot price of corn in Shandong is weakening, and the spot price of starch in Northeast China is relatively strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The 01 - contract starch fluctuated strongly following corn, but the corn price in North China may still decline in December, and the spot price of corn starch is also expected to fall [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - For corn futures, the closing prices of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 2259, 2289, and 2304 respectively, with increases of 16, 9, and 17, and increases of 0.71%, 0.39%, and 0.74% respectively. The trading volumes are 761,132, 128,716, and 8,806 respectively, with increases of 43.99%, 32.16%, and 27.07% respectively. The open interests are 905,398, 389,799, and 25,069 respectively, with changes of - 2.38%, 3.75%, and 3.02% respectively [2]. - For corn starch futures, the closing prices of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2562, 2618, and 2647 respectively, with increases of 16, 11, and 11, and increases of 0.62%, 0.42%, and 0.42% respectively. The trading volumes are 121,079, 6,936, and 267 respectively, with changes of 15.88%, - 48.40%, and - 29.74% respectively. The open interests are 225,949, 8,925, and 1,251 respectively, with changes of - 1.04%, 1.17%, and - 5.51% respectively [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2035, 2130, 2354, 2298, 2290, 2400, and 2470 respectively, with changes of 10, 0, - 6, - 6, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. The basis is - 269, - 174, 50, - 6, 31, 96, and 166 respectively [2]. - For starch, the spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Jiajie, Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2680, 2700, 2800, 2890, 2820, 2880, and 2760 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, 0, 0, - 30, - 20, and - 10 respectively. The basis is 62, 82, 182, 272, 202, 262, and 142 respectively [2]. 3.1.3 Price Spreads - For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 30 with a change of 7, C05 - C09 is - 15 with a change of - 8, and C09 - C01 is 45 with a change of 1. - For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 56 with a change of 5, CS05 - CS09 is - 29 with a change of 0, and CS09 - CS01 is 85 with a change of - 5. - For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 343 with a change of - 6, CS01 - C01 is 303 with a change of 0, and CS05 - C05 is 329 with a change of 2 [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook and Judgment - Corn: The U.S. corn price is rising, and the yield per unit is expected to be further adjusted downward, but the production remains high, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn is falling, and the FOB price at northern ports in China is rising. The spot price of corn in the Northeast is relatively strong, while that in North China is weakening. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is narrowing. The wheat price in North China is relatively strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is still large, making corn cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The 01 - contract corn showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the spot basis strengthened. Currently, the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn in mid - to - late December and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][7][8]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has increased, the spot price of corn in Shandong is weakening, and the spot price of starch in Northeast China is relatively strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch decreased to 105.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.61%. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The 01 - contract starch fluctuated strongly following corn, but the corn price in North China may still decline in December, and the spot price of corn starch is also expected to fall [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The U.S. corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. For the 01 - contract corn, short positions can be lightly established on rallies, and for the 05 - contract corn, continue to wait [9]. - Arbitrage: Try to narrow the price spread between the 01 - contract corn and starch on rallies [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - put strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [10]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the 01 - contract corn, the 1 - 5 price spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of the 01 - contract corn starch, and the price spread between the 01 - contract corn starch and corn [15][17][20].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal inventory still faces pressure, and the market is oscillating. The overall international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose, with the US market showing a relatively strong trend, while the Brazilian soybean prices are expected to face some pressure in the medium - term. The domestic market is also in a state of relatively loose supply - demand, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be affected by multiple factors such as international supply, domestic demand, and macro - economic conditions [3][4][5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The Brazilian soybean prices have a slight rebound, and the domestic soybean meal market is rising slightly, while the rapeseed meal is continuing to rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is slightly widening, and the inter - month spreads of both are falling [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the US soybean market's upward space is limited. The Brazilian new - crop soybean planting progress is fast, and the old - crop has good export and crushing performance. The Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and crushing has improved [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a certain supply pressure [6] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation is generally stable. The end of the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations have brought positive signals. The restoration of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the US soybean export prospects, but the subsequent import volume still has great uncertainty [7] 3.4 Logical Analysis - The US soybean market is expected to oscillate at a high level. The Brazilian market has price support. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure, and the rapeseed meal market may be affected by supply - side uncertainty. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have different trends [8] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Make a small - scale long - position layout - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Options**: Adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]