股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.09 [Table_Industry] 医疗器械 医疗设备招采规模高基数影响部分回落， 关注手术机器人市场机遇 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 江珅(分析师) | 021-23185638 | jiangshen@gtht.com | S0880525090001 | | 赵峻峰(分析师) | 0755-23976629 | zhaojunfeng@gtht.com | S0880519080017 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | 本报告导读： 伴随设备更新政策持续落地，有望长周期拉动医疗设备采购水平，推荐有望受益设 备更新政策落地带动业绩复苏的医疗设备企业。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 医疗器械《医疗器械 26 年来催化频出，关注器械 出海、脑机接口、AI 医疗的投资机遇》 2026.0 ...

21世纪经济报道记者韩利明 为整治政府采购领域"内卷式"竞争，财政部日前印发《关于推动解决政府采购异常低价问题的通知》（下称"《通知》"），明 确将耗材使用量大的实验、医疗等仪器设备采购项目纳入重点管理范畴，从采购需求、审查范围、履约流程等维度划定监管红 线。 事实上，早在2024年12月，财政部便已印发试点通知，在北京、天津、上海、福建、广东自由贸易试验区和海南自由贸易港开 展异常低价问题试点工作；江西省也在2025年12月出台专项工作通知，推动政府采购从"低价导向"向"优质优价"转变。 在业内看来，医疗设备市场因政府采购占比高，近两年伴随行业竞争加剧，细分领域价格内卷现象愈发突出。此次《通知》的 落地实施，将进一步完善政府采购监管机制，引导行业从"价格战"转向理性竞价、良性竞争的轨道。 北京中医药大学卫生健康法学教授、博士生导师邓勇向21世纪经济报道记者指出，新规通过价格红线、全流程审查和履约监 管，从根源上遏制医疗设备领域的异常低价竞争。 "企业需从价格战转向技术+服务+合规的综合竞争，医院需建立全生命周期成本理念，监管部门需压实各方责任，共同推动行业 向优质优价转型。"邓勇教授表示，"行业洗牌不可避免 ...

Core Viewpoint - The medical equipment procurement scale is expected to grow rapidly year-on-year due to the implementation of the 2025 equipment renewal policy, with a significant increase in demand for high-end medical devices [1][2][3] Group 1: Equipment Procurement Trends - In December 2025, the procurement scale for new medical devices showed a decline in MR by 11.8%, CT by 7.3%, DR by 3.9%, and ultrasound by 1.3%, while endoscopes increased by 1.4% and surgical robots decreased by 23.9% [1][2] - Cumulatively for the year 2025, the procurement scale for MR increased by 31.4%, CT by 53.2%, DR by 53.2%, ultrasound by 42.3%, endoscopes by 16.3%, and surgical robots by 21.9% [2] Group 2: Company Performance - In December 2025, the performance of specific companies showed that Union Medical's MR declined by 17.4%, while its CT increased by 17.4%. Mindray's ultrasound grew by 13.8%, and KAILI's ultrasound decreased by 13.5%. KAILI's endoscope increased by 61.1%, and Aohua's endoscope grew by 9.4% [2] - For the entire year of 2025, Union Medical's MR grew by 15.6%, CT by 47.7%, Mindray's ultrasound by 56.3%, KAILI's ultrasound by 69.7%, KAILI's endoscope by 85.0%, and Aohua's endoscope by 24.4% [2] Group 3: Policy Impact - The 2024 policy aims to increase medical equipment investment by over 25% compared to 2023 by 2027, enhancing the configuration of high-end equipment to levels seen in middle-income countries [3] - The implementation of the equipment renewal policy is expected to significantly boost procurement levels across various medical institutions, leading to a recovery in the domestic market and a turning point for equipment companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The medical equipment bidding scale continues to show good growth, driven by the implementation of equipment renewal policies, which is expected to stimulate long-term procurement levels in the medical equipment sector [1][4]. Group 1: Equipment Renewal Policy Impact - The equipment renewal policy is set to be implemented as planned in 2025, with a rapid year-on-year growth in the annual bidding scale for medical equipment. For instance, in December 2025, the bidding scale for MR decreased by 11.8%, while CT and DR saw declines of 7.3% and 3.9%, respectively. However, the overall annual cumulative growth for 2025 shows significant increases: MR grew by 31.4%, CT by 53.2%, DR by 53.2%, ultrasound by 42.3%, endoscopes by 16.3%, and surgical robots by 21.9% [3][4]. - The four ministries jointly issued a notice in 2024, aiming for a more than 25% increase in medical equipment investment by 2027 compared to 2023, enhancing high-end equipment configurations to levels seen in middle-income countries [4]. Group 2: Market Recovery and Company Performance - The domestic market is showing signs of effective recovery due to policy implementation, with medical equipment companies expected to experience a performance turnaround. For example, in the first three quarters of 2025, United Imaging's domestic revenue reached 6.866 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, indicating a recovery and structural upgrade trend in the medical equipment industry [4]. - The demand for innovative diagnostic and treatment equipment, particularly in imaging and radiotherapy, is rapidly increasing as a result of the ongoing equipment renewal policies [4].

Summary of Medical Imaging Equipment Demand Update Industry Overview - The medical imaging equipment market is experiencing varied growth across different segments, with specific focus on CT, MRI, DSA, DR, and PET-CT devices. [1][3][10] Key Points Market Size and Growth Projections - The MRI equipment market is expected to remain stable in 2025, with a market size projected at 102-103 (based on 2024 as 100) and no significant growth anticipated through 2026 [1][4] - The CT equipment market is projected to see a slight decline in sales, estimated at 97-98 units in 2025, with a similar trend expected in 2026 [1][5] - The DR market is forecasted to shrink, with expectations of a decrease to 85-90 in 2025 and further down to 80-85 in 2026 [1][6] - The DSA market is expected to grow slightly, reaching 107-108 in 2025 and potentially 108-110 in 2026, driven by the expansion of interventional surgery and new product launches from domestic brands [1][7] - The PET-CT market is anticipated to grow by 7%-8% in 2025, reaching 107-108, and further to around 110 in 2026, while the PET-MR market is expected to decline to 80-90 units in 2025 and 60-70 in 2026 [1][9] Demand Drivers - Demand for high-end products is primarily coming from large hospitals (level 1 and above), while grassroots hospitals contribute minimally to overall growth [1][11] - The overall growth rate for medical equipment is projected at approximately 3% for 2025, with a slight increase of 1%-2% expected in the following years [1][10] Procurement Policies - A national centralized procurement policy is being implemented, with about one-third of provinces having completed the first round of procurement, accounting for 15%-20% of total procurement value, expected to rise to 30%-35% by the end of next year [1][12] - Average price reductions post-procurement are reported at 20%-30%, with factory prices dropping by 15%-20% [2][14] Competitive Landscape - The leading domestic company, Lianying, is currently the most profitable among local manufacturers due to centralized procurement, but faces long-term challenges from both international giants and domestic competitors [4][20][21] - Lianying's product development and sales capabilities are strong, with a comprehensive product line and rapid innovation, positioning it as one of the strongest companies in the domestic market [4][22] Future Trends - Photon CT is gaining traction, with current installations at around 30-40 units and expected to increase by 60-70 units. Prices are projected to drop from approximately 50 million to 25-30 million yuan as domestic brands enter the market [4][17] - The MRI sector is also evolving, with advancements in high-field MRI systems (5T and 7T) expected to gain market acceptance due to their clinical applicability [4][18] Additional Insights - The centralized procurement process is expected to standardize pricing and reduce costs across the board, impacting both high-end and low-end product segments [12][15] - Support policies for upgrading equipment are still in place but are less effective than initially anticipated, focusing more on mid to low-end products for grassroots hospitals [16] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the medical imaging equipment demand update, highlighting market trends, growth projections, and competitive dynamics within the industry.

Core Viewpoint - The article maintains an "overweight" rating, recommending medical device companies that are expected to benefit from the implementation of equipment upgrade policies leading to performance recovery [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Equipment Procurement - The scale of medical device bidding continues to grow, with significant increases in November 2025: MR up 11.1%, CT up 26.4%, DR up 47.2%, ultrasound up 17.0%, endoscopes down 4.9%, and surgical robots up 8.6% [2] - Cumulatively, by November 2025, the bidding scale for new equipment shows substantial growth: MR up 50.4%, CT up 72.7%, DR up 74.0%, ultrasound up 56.1%, endoscopes up 19.7%, and surgical robots up 32.8% [2] - Specific company performance in November 2025 includes: United Imaging MR up 3.0%, United Imaging CT up 41.9%, Mindray ultrasound up 24.5%, KAILI ultrasound up 70.2%, KAILI endoscope up 47.4%, and Aohua endoscope up 60.3% [2] - Year-to-date performance by November 2025 shows: United Imaging MR up 39.7%, United Imaging CT up 56.4%, Mindray ultrasound up 68.4%, KAILI ultrasound up 92.6%, KAILI endoscope up 87.8%, and Aohua endoscope up 26.1% [2] Group 2: Policy Impact and Market Recovery - The implementation of equipment upgrade policies is expected to drive long-term procurement levels in the medical device sector, with a target of over 25% growth in equipment investment by 2027 compared to 2023 [3] - In 2024, significant procurement plans for medical equipment are expected to be announced across various provinces, indicating a robust demand for innovative diagnostic and treatment equipment [3] - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with a reported revenue of 6.866 billion yuan for United Imaging in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.70% [3]

Summary of Conference Call on China Healthcare Industry and Companies Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Healthcare, specifically focusing on hospital equipment bidding - **Key Data**: November 2025 public hospital medical equipment bidding value increased by **15% YoY**, surpassing previous expectations of flat-to-low single-digit growth [1] Core Insights - **Bidding Activity**: - The increase in bidding value was unexpected, as leading indicators suggested weaker dynamics for 2025 compared to 2024 [1] - United Imaging indicated that while trade-in program execution is faster than last year, some procurement may be deferred to 2026, suggesting a recovery in non-trade-in demand [1] - **Future Outlook**: - A cautious stance is maintained for bidding activity into December 2025 and the first half of 2026 due to tougher base effects and uneven trade-in execution across regions [2] - The base-case assumption for bidding value has been revised from a flat-to-single-digit decline to flat-to-modest YoY growth for December 2025 and 1H26 [2] Company-Specific Insights United Imaging - **Performance**: - Domestic revenue grew **73% YoY** in 3Q25, driven by previous hospital bidding revenue recognition; overseas revenue increased by **81% YoY** [14] - Service revenue grew **22% YoY**, indicating resilience to economic cycles [14] - November growth was **30% YoY**, significantly higher than the industry average of **15%** [14] - **Valuation**: - Currently trading near its median P/E multiple since listing, with significant long-term net profit growth potential anticipated [14] Mindray - **Performance**: - Core businesses showed mixed results: PMLS grew **2.6%**, MI grew **1%**, while IVD declined **2.8%** in 3Q25 [16] - Domestic PMLS revenue decline narrowed to **-25%** from **-57%** in 1H25, with overseas sales up **14% YoY** [16] - Management expects destocking to complete by 4Q25, with revenue recovery anticipated in 2026 [16] - **Growth Drivers**: - Long-term double-digit growth supported by recurring business in China and market share gains in emerging markets [16] - High-potential products expected to drive significant revenue growth in China from 2024 to 2035 [16] Risks and Challenges - **Mindray**: - Risks include potential impacts from VBP on product pricing, challenges in penetrating top-tier hospitals, and difficulties in entering North American and European markets [77] - **United Imaging**: - Risks include chip supply chain issues, raw material risks, macroeconomic downturns in China, and potential VBP risks [78] Investment Ratings - **Mindray**: Rated as "Buy" with a 12-month target price of **Rmb285**, indicating an upside of **43.4%** [79] - **United Imaging**: Rated as "Buy" with a 12-month target price of **Rmb174**, indicating an upside of **34.9%** [82] Conclusion - The China healthcare equipment sector is showing signs of recovery with better-than-expected bidding activity, particularly for United Imaging. Mindray is facing challenges but has potential growth drivers in emerging markets and high-potential products. Both companies are rated as "Buy" with significant upside potential.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1][5]. Core Insights - The medical device procurement scale continues to grow, driven by ongoing equipment update policies, which are expected to lead to a long-term increase in procurement levels. The report recommends medical device companies that are likely to benefit from these policies, including Mindray Medical, United Imaging, Kaili Medical, and Aohua Endoscopy [3][5]. - In November 2025, the new equipment procurement scale showed significant year-on-year growth: MRI increased by 11.1%, CT by 26.4%, DR by 47.2%, ultrasound by 17.0%, while endoscopes declined by 4.9%, and surgical robots grew by 8.6%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, MRI grew by 50.4%, CT by 72.7%, DR by 74.0%, ultrasound by 56.1%, endoscopes by 19.7%, and surgical robots by 32.8% [5]. - The equipment update policy is expected to drive procurement levels significantly, with a target of over 25% growth in medical equipment investment by 2027 compared to 2023. This policy is expected to enhance the configuration of high-end equipment to levels comparable to middle-income countries [5]. - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in procurement demand from medical institutions, reflecting a positive trend in the medical equipment industry. For instance, United Imaging reported a revenue of 6.866 billion yuan in the domestic market for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.7% [5]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating and recommends companies likely to benefit from the equipment update policies [5]. - **Market Trends**: The report highlights the growth in procurement scale for various medical devices, indicating a robust market environment [5]. - **Policy Impact**: The ongoing implementation of equipment update policies is expected to significantly enhance procurement levels in the medical sector [5].

张英 医疗反腐风暴渐渐平息，医疗设备经销商却未能放松，他们面临更大的考验——集采。 11月，多位医疗设备经销商找到张震，想聊聊转型的可能。几年前，当安徽、福建率先开展医疗设备省 级集采时，张震就决定陆续放弃医疗设备经销业务，现在已转型到投资行业。 医疗设备集采最初于2020年开始在安徽、福建施行，不过此后几年跟进的省份较少，直至近一年来情况 出现变化——据经济观察报统计，全国至少已有14个省份开展医疗设备集采。 医疗设备包括常见的超声、CT、数字X线（DR）、呼吸机，也包括一般人不太了解的磁共振（MR）、 血管造影系统、手术机器人、放疗设备等。 与药品和耗材直接用于治疗患者不同，医疗设备多是医生诊断的辅助工具，相当于医生的眼睛。 患者对医疗设备的价格感知较弱，它的价格直接影响到的是医疗机构的采购成本，进而常以间接的方式 影响患者的检查等费用。 在2023年开始的医疗反腐风暴中，医疗设备采购中存在的贪腐受到高度关注。多位受访者认为，这是近 一年来多省陆续开展医疗设备集采的重要背景，未来医疗设备集采会持续扩围。 这场集采浪潮正重塑医疗设备万亿市场，那些曾价值上百万元、千万元的大块头设备在这场集采中不断 刷新最低价 ...

Core Insights - The medical equipment bidding scale has shown significant growth, indicating a new round of equipment updates is expected to emerge in 2025 [1][3] Group 1: Medical Equipment Bidding Growth - In October 2025, the new equipment bidding scale showed substantial year-on-year growth: MR increased by 59.4%, CT by 81.6%, DR by 77.4%, ultrasound by 62.8%, endoscopes by 24.4%, and surgical robots by 42.7% [1] - For October 2025 alone, the month-on-month growth rates were: MR at 2.9%, CT at 49.4%, DR at 54.4%, ultrasound at 59.9%, endoscopes at 11.6%, and surgical robots at 108.9% [1] Group 2: Company Performance - In October 2025, company-specific performance showed varied results: - United Imaging's MR decreased by 5.9%, while CT increased by 74.7% - Mindray's ultrasound grew by 61.8% - Kaili's ultrasound and endoscope grew by 54.5% and 96.6% respectively - Aohua's endoscope increased by 4.8% [2] - Cumulatively for the year, United Imaging's MR grew by 46.6%, CT by 59.4%, Mindray's ultrasound by 74.1%, Kaili's ultrasound by 98.1%, Kaili's endoscope by 96.5%, and Aohua's endoscope by 19.7% [2] Group 3: Policy Impact on Market - The implementation of equipment update policies is expected to drive long-term procurement levels in the medical equipment sector [3] - A joint notice from four ministries in 2024 aims for a 25% increase in medical equipment investment by 2027 compared to 2023, enhancing high-end equipment availability [3] - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with increased procurement demand from medical institutions due to supportive macroeconomic policies [4] - United Imaging reported a revenue of 6.866 billion yuan in the domestic market for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.7% [4]