Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential listing wave in the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and its advancements in DRAM and HBM production, highlighting the positive outlook from both domestic and international analysts [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - CXMT has initiated its listing guidance, indicating a potential trend of IPOs in the semiconductor sector [1]. - The company plans to start mass production of HBM2E in the first half of 2026, with small-scale production expected by mid-2025 [2]. - CXMT aims to deliver HBM3 samples by the end of 2025 and to begin full-scale production in 2026, with a long-term goal of developing HBM3E by 2027 [2]. Group 2: Production Capacity - According to Morgan Stanley, CXMT's HBM production capacity is projected to reach approximately 10,000 wpm by the end of 2026 and expand to 40,000 wpm by the end of 2028, responding to the growing demand in the AI market [4]. - In the DRAM sector, CXMT plans to increase its DDR5/LPDDR5 capacity to 110,000 wpm by the end of 2025, capturing 6% of the global DRAM capacity [5]. - The company’s DRAM chip production is expected to account for about 14% of the global market by 2025, although actual market share may drop to 10% due to yield issues [6]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - CXMT faces significant challenges in developing the D1 node without EUV lithography, particularly in yield improvement and chip size [7]. - The company has successfully manufactured DDR5 chips at the 1z nm node, although the chip size remains larger compared to competitors [7]. - CXMT has introduced a 16nm node 16Gb DDR5 chip, which is approximately 20% smaller than its previous 18nm third-generation DRAM [7]. Group 4: Market Position - CXMT's current production capabilities are still behind major international competitors, which utilize processes below 15nm [10]. - The company is actively participating in the DDR4 market while beginning to supply DDR5 samples to customers [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating on Naura, AMEC, and ACMR, with revised target prices reflecting positive outlooks for these companies [6][37][55]. Core Insights - The outlook for China's wafer fab equipment (WFE) market remains strong, driven by better-than-expected demand from logic foundries and ongoing localization efforts [1][2]. - The total addressable market (TAM) forecast for China WFE has been raised from $36.6 billion (down 12% year-over-year) to $40.3 billion (down 3% year-over-year) for 2025, and from $35.1 billion (down 4% year-over-year) to $36.2 billion (down 10% year-over-year) for 2026 [3][9]. - China is expected to continue gaining market share in WFE, with approximately 25% of foundry capital expenditures allocated to domestic WFE in 2025, up from 20% in 2024 [4]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - Strong demand for logic foundries in China is anticipated in the second half of 2025, with expectations of increased spending related to AI applications [2][9]. - Despite concerns regarding oversupply in mature nodes, the report suggests that government initiatives may prioritize localization over economic rationale in the second half of 2025 [5]. - The report indicates that imports of semiconductor equipment into China may recover starting in July 2025, following a decline in early 2025 [21]. Company-Specific Developments - Naura has expanded its product portfolio, launching new ion implant equipment, and is expected to benefit from the increasing localization of semiconductor manufacturing in China [4][37]. - The report highlights that leading Chinese WFE players are likely to capture larger shares of the market due to their expanding product pipelines and advanced R&D capabilities [6][37]. - Naura's revenue growth is projected to be supported by increased capital expenditures from logic foundry and memory customers in 2025 [37][51]. Financial Projections - The report revises Naura's earnings estimates upward for 2025-2027, reflecting strong demand and market share gains [51][52]. - Naura's net sales are projected to increase from Rmb 41.88 billion in 2025 to Rmb 61.42 billion by 2027, with corresponding net income growth [63][66].