Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **macro-economic policies**, and the **development of stablecoins** in Hong Kong and globally. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Macro-Economic Policy Direction**: The main theme for the second half of the year is structural adjustment and gradual support, with economic activities expected to peak and then decline. Incremental policies are anticipated to be reactive, requiring data to show a downturn before implementation [1][4][10]. 2. **Impact of US-China Relations**: Ongoing negotiations between the US and China may extend by 90 days, with no significant improvement in trade relations expected in the short term. This dynamic is likely to pressure Chinese export companies to enhance supply chain resilience [8][11][26]. 3. **Stablecoin Development**: The introduction of stablecoins in Hong Kong is seen as a significant opportunity, with a focus on their potential to stimulate investment and trading behaviors. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is emphasizing high liquidity asset coverage for stablecoin issuers [2][7][30][31]. 4. **Supply-Side Reform and Anti-Overwork Policies**: The anti-overwork policies are in the exploratory phase, aiming to curb disorderly competition and guide industry consolidation. The current measures are seen as initial steps rather than comprehensive solutions [3][12][15]. 5. **Investment Opportunities in Innovation**: Sectors such as AI, new energy, and smart driving are highlighted as areas with structural investment opportunities, alongside the stablecoin market [5][6][30]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Social Security Reforms**: The direction for social security reforms is clear but gradual, with measures like national birth subsidies and free preschool education being discussed [13]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook**: There is a cautious optimism regarding the market, with some investors sensing signs of a bull market due to improvements in market sentiment and the effectiveness of policies aimed at breaking the deflationary cycle [6][21]. 3. **Risks Associated with Stablecoins**: Despite the benefits, there are significant risks related to stablecoins, including regulatory uncertainties and potential market volatility due to rapid trading behaviors [32][41]. 4. **Hong Kong's Regulatory Framework**: The new stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong are designed to mitigate systemic risks and ensure that issuers meet high standards, which may limit the number of approved issuers in the short term [36][37]. 5. **Long-term Economic Projections**: The expectation is that while deflationary pressures may persist until 2026, there is a higher probability of improvement by 2027, driven by supply-demand rebalancing efforts [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape, the evolving role of stablecoins, and the implications for investment strategies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Financial Services, specifically focusing on Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Core Points and Arguments 1. **PBoC's Plan for RMB**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) aims to facilitate the opening-up and internationalization of the RMB in a multipolar monetary world [4][5] 2. **Financial Measures in Shanghai**: Eight new financial measures were introduced to strengthen financial infrastructure, enhance Shanghai's role as a financial center, and promote offshore RMB-denominated bond issuance [5][7] 3. **Stablecoins Regulation**: The Hong Kong Stablecoins Bill is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, allowing specified entities to issue stablecoins under strict regulations, including maintaining reserves and public disclosures [8][9] 4. **Market Dynamics**: USD-pegged stablecoins dominate the market, with over $120 billion backed by US Treasury bills, indicating a strong demand for US treasuries [11][12] 5. **RMB's Share in Global FX Reserves**: The share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 2.84% in Q1 2022 to 2.18% in Q4 2024, highlighting challenges in RMB internationalization [18][19] 6. **Digital Yuan Initiatives**: The establishment of a Digital Yuan International Operations Center in Shanghai is planned to expand the global reach of the RMB [16] 7. **Crypto Market Growth**: The total crypto market cap reached $3.4 trillion by June 2025, showing significant growth from under $2 trillion at the beginning of 2024 [26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **RMB Cross-Border Settlement Roadmap**: A detailed timeline of initiatives related to the digital yuan and cross-border settlement systems was provided, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance RMB's global presence [15] 2. **Investor Concerns**: Increased investor concerns over China's economic challenges were noted, which may impact the overall sentiment towards RMB internationalization [21] 3. **Reflation Strategy**: A "5R" reflation strategy was discussed, focusing on fiscal measures and structural reforms to stimulate the economy, with a projected GDP widening of 1.6 percentage points by the end of 2025 [25] 4. **Regulatory Framework for Crypto**: Ongoing efforts to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong were highlighted, indicating a proactive approach to managing the crypto market [30] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the financial measures, regulatory developments, and market dynamics surrounding stablecoins and RMB internationalization.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of stablecoins and the internationalization of the RMB, emphasizing the long-term strategies being implemented by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to enhance the RMB's global presence [17][21] - It highlights the increasing dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins in the market, which has led to a rise in demand for US treasuries [23][24] Summary by Sections Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - The PBoC is focusing on enhancing financial infrastructure and services in Shanghai to facilitate RMB internationalization [18] - New financial measures include promoting offshore RMB-denominated bond issuance and optimizing cross-border trade and investment [19] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is experiencing significant growth, with over USD 120 billion backed by US T-bills, indicating a strong reliance on USD [24] - The total transaction volume of stablecoins has been rising, with a notable increase compared to traditional payment systems like Visa and MasterCard [22] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Stablecoins Bill is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers [20] - The report outlines the licensing requirements and operational standards for stablecoin issuers in both Hong Kong and the US [20] RMB's Global Position - The share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 2.84% in Q1 2022 to 2.18% in Q4 2024, indicating challenges in its international acceptance [31] - The establishment of a Digital Yuan International Operations Center in Shanghai aims to expand the RMB's global reach [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - China's interest in stablecoins is driven by concerns over US legislation that could reinforce dollar dominance, with the PBoC exploring Hong Kong as a testing ground for future payment alternatives [1][2] - The development of RMB stablecoins is seen as a potential building block for cross-border RMB settlement, but significant reforms are needed for true internationalization [10][12] Summary by Sections Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - The US GENIUS Act's passage marks a pivotal moment for stablecoins, potentially transforming USD-pegged stablecoins into synthetic dollars, which could enhance demand for US Treasuries [2] - Stablecoins are viewed as distribution channels for existing currencies rather than new currencies, extending the US dollar's reach into crypto and emerging markets [3] PBoC's Strategy - The PBoC has shifted from banning cryptocurrencies to advocating for a multi-polar global currency system, emphasizing the need for efficient digital payment alternatives [4] - Digital RMB and stablecoins are proposed as viable options for cross-border transactions, addressing weaknesses in traditional payment systems [4] RMB Stablecoins: Opportunities and Challenges - Current cross-border digital RMB transactions are limited in scale, primarily utilizing Project mBridge, with only five central banks involved [5] - The potential for RMB stablecoins is hindered by domestic usage bans, capital controls, and the dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins [5] Hong Kong's Role - Hong Kong is the first jurisdiction to pass stablecoin legislation, effective August 1, 2025, which mandates 100% high-quality reserves for stablecoins [9] - The legislation aims to promote USD and HKD pegged stablecoins initially, with plans to introduce CNH pegged stablecoins later, leveraging Hong Kong's liquidity pool [9] Long-term Outlook for RMB Internationalization - Despite efforts to enhance cross-border settlement infrastructure, the RMB's share in global reserve currencies has declined from 2.8% in early 2022 to 2.2% by the end of 2024 [11][13] - Restoring global confidence in China's growth potential is crucial for increasing RMB usage, necessitating structural reforms in the economy [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or the RMB internationalization efforts Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is advocating for the internationalization of the RMB and a multipolar global financial system, emphasizing the need for securing international transactions over enjoying the benefits of a reserve currency [2][8] - Eight new financial policies have been announced to facilitate the opening of China's financial system and promote the use of RMB internationally [3][8] Summary by Sections PBoC's Remarks - PBoC Governor highlighted the tension between self-interest and global public goods, the spillover of domestic policy, and the weaponization of currency in geopolitical competition [2] - The focus is on securing cross-border settlements rather than the "exorbitant privilege" of a reserve currency [2] Financial Policies - The PBoC announced eight financial measures aimed at enhancing RMB internationalization, which include establishing a trade reporting system, setting up an international digital RMB operation center, and promoting RMB FX futures trading [5][6] - The measures also aim to enrich financial products and services in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and enhance Shanghai's role as a financial center [6][8] Economic Context - The wider international use of RMB is contingent upon a robust economy and progress in capital account convertibility [3] - To restore global confidence in growth, Beijing needs to address deflation and increase the supply of central government bonds [3]

Market Overview - On June 19, A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.13%, Shenzhen Component down 0.19%, and ChiNext down 0.27%. By 10:35, over 3,850 stocks in the market had declined [1] - The market is returning to a volatile pattern, with upward pressure from profit-taking and downward support from bullish sentiment [8] Sector Performance - Lithium battery electrolyte, lithium battery anode, robotics, semiconductor equipment, automotive parts, operating systems, and embodied intelligence concepts saw significant gains [3][4] - Solid-state battery concepts surged, with Haike New Source hitting a 20% limit up, and other stocks like Keheng Co. and Nord Co. also performing well [4] - Conversely, sectors such as nuclear power, outbound tax refunds, photolithography factories, and military industry faced declines [3][4] Notable Stocks - Changshan Pharmaceutical experienced a sudden 20% drop after a significant rise since early May, where its stock price had tripled [7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index opened down 0.38%, with both the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index declining over 1% [7] Digital Currency and Technology Trends - The digital currency sector continued to strengthen, with stocks like Beixin Source rising over 15% and Dongxin Peace hitting a 10% limit up, marking a 72% increase year-to-date [5] - Brain-computer interface concepts remained active, with stocks like Innovation Medical hitting the limit up [5] Future Market Expectations - Analysts predict that the A-share market will enter a period of concentrated mid-year performance forecasts, which may enhance investment effectiveness [8] - The market is expected to shift towards a technology-focused style, with recent trends indicating a return of funds to technology stocks [8]