证 券 研 究 报 告 ASML（ASML）2025Q4 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 AI 驱动需求高增，积压在手订单达 388 亿欧元 会议地点：线上 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 1 月 28 日 ASML 发布 2025 年 Q4 季度报告，并召开业绩说明会。公 司财务季度 FY2025Q4 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，即自然季度 CQ2025Q4。 2025Q4，公司实现营收 97.18 亿欧元，同比增长 4.9%，环比增长 29.3%；毛利 率 52.2%，同比提升 0.5pct，环比提升 0.6pct。2025 全年，公司实现营业收入 326.67 亿欧元，同比增长 15.6%；全年毛利率为 52.8%；全年净利润为 96 亿 欧元。 ❖ 评论： 1. 业绩总览：1）25Q4，公司实现营业收入 97.18 亿欧元（QoQ+29.3%， YoY+4.9%），高于指引中值（指引范围 92-98 亿欧元）；季度毛利率 52.2% （QoQ+0.6pct，YoY+0.5pct），位于指引(51-53%)中位；季度净利润 28.4 亿欧 元，净利率 29.2%。2）2025 年，全年公司实现营业收入 ...

1月28日消息，光刻机巨头ASML宣布将裁员1700人，占员工总数的3.8%！ 这次裁员是ASML在2010年长期扩张后最大的一次裁员。 据ASML最新财报显示，公司2025年第四季度订单远超超市场预期。财报显示，第四季度订单额达132 亿欧元，其中EUV订单74亿欧元，订单积压规模达388亿欧元。此外，第四季度净销售额达97亿欧元创 纪录新高，其中包含两台High NA系统的收入确认。公司2025年全年净销售额达327亿欧元，净利润96 亿欧元，均创历史新高。 值得注意的是，2025年第四季度ASML新售出的光刻系统为94台，二手光刻系统为8台，全年新光刻系 统为300台，二手光刻系统为27台。相比于2024年380台新光刻系统，38台二手光刻系统，出现了下滑。 是说芯语原创，欢迎关注分享 合作洽谈，进入公众号：服务—>商务合作 阿斯麦首席执行官Christophe Fouquet表示，客户近月来对中期市场形势的评估明显转向积极，主要基于 对AI相关需求可持续性的更强预期。2026 年将是阿斯麦公司的又一个增长之年。 ASML首席财务官罗杰表示，公司收到反馈，指出其组织架构过于复杂，导致员工在流程协调上耗费 ...

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 1月28日消息，光刻机巨头ASML宣布将裁员1700人，占员工总数的3.8%！ 这次裁员是ASML在2010年长期扩张后最大的一次裁员。 半导体公众号推荐 半导体论坛百万微信群 据ASML最新财报显示，公司2025年第四季度订单远超超市场预期。财报显示，第四季度订单额达132亿欧元，其中EUV订单74亿欧元，订单积压规模达 388亿欧元。此外，第四季度净销售额达97亿欧元创纪录新高，其中包含两台High NA系统的收入确认。公司2025年全年净销售额达327亿欧元，净利润96 亿欧元，均创历史新高。 值得注意的是，2025年第四季度ASML新售出的光刻系统为94台，二手光刻系统为8台，全年新光刻系统为300台，二手光刻系统为27台。相比于2024年 380台新光刻系统，38台二手光刻系统，出现了下滑。 2025年，ASML EUV光刻系统销售额同比增长39%，达116亿欧元，确认48台EUV光刻系统的收入。首台EXE:5200B 系统完成现场验收测试后，已确认相 关收入。而在DUV光刻系统领域，销售 ...

2）光刻系统出货量：ArFi本季度出货37台，是公司各类光刻设备中出货数量最多的。公司本季度EUV出货14台，出货量环比明显回升，主要 受下游存储厂商的出货带动。 3）光刻系统均价：EUV的均价明显高于ArFi。海豚君测算公司本季度EUV均价提升至2.6亿欧元左右，ArFi的单台价格大约在0.82亿欧元，两 者的价格比例还是在3：1左右。 4、阿斯麦ASML核心关注点: a.地区收入：中国大陆地区是本季度最主要的收入来源（36%），大约贡献了35亿欧元，依然好于公司此前的份额预期（25%）；中国台湾地 区本季度贡献了12.6亿欧元左右的收入，占比为13%。 阿斯麦（ASML）于北京时间2026年1月28日下午的美股盘前发布了2025年第四季度财报（截止2025年12月），要点如下： 1、收入&毛利率：a）本季度收入97.2亿欧元，同比增长5%，好于市场预期（95.6亿欧元），其中公司本季度收入主要来自于中国大陆客户增长的贡献。 b）本季度毛利率52.2%，符合公司指引区间（51-53%），主要受价格较高的EUV出货占比提升的带动。 2、费用端及利润：公司本季度实现净利润为28.4亿欧元，同比增长5%，其中净利 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML's Q3 2025 financial results indicate a stabilization in performance, with revenue and gross margin meeting company guidance, while the focus shifts to order trends and future operational guidance [7][8][40]. Revenue & Gross Margin - Q3 2025 revenue reached €7.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, slightly below market expectations of €7.7 billion, primarily driven by contributions from TSMC and customers in mainland China [1][28]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, near the upper end of the company's guidance range (50%-52%), supported by an increase in service revenue [1][32]. Expenses & Profit - R&D and sales management expenses remained stable, with net profit for the quarter at €2.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, driven by improved gross margin [2][38]. - The net profit margin for the quarter was 28.3% [2][38]. Business Performance - Lithography system revenue was €5.55 billion, down 6.3% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 27.3% to €1.96 billion, indicating a shift in revenue composition [3][55]. - The revenue split between lithography systems and services was approximately 70:30, with lithography systems remaining the core of ASML's performance [3][42]. Regional Revenue - Mainland China was the largest revenue source, contributing 42% or approximately €3.16 billion, significantly exceeding the company's previous expectation of 25% [4][56]. - Taiwan contributed around €2.26 billion, accounting for 30% of revenue, reflecting strong demand from TSMC [4][56]. Order Metrics - The net order intake for the quarter was €5.4 billion, a decrease of €1.4 billion from the previous quarter but better than market expectations of €4.9 billion [5][9]. - The sustained net orders above €5 billion indicate a recovery in customer confidence [5][9]. Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, ASML expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with a gross margin of 51%-53%, both above market expectations [6][12]. Market Context - The current operational phase for ASML is transitioning from a low point to recovery, driven by increased capital expenditures in the semiconductor industry, particularly in storage and AI-related investments [14][40]. - The positive outlook for major clients like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel is expected to boost ASML's performance as they increase capital spending [22][25]. Competitive Position - ASML remains the sole provider of EUV lithography systems, holding over 80% market share, which solidifies its investment rationale [23][60]. - The introduction of High-NA EUV systems is anticipated to further enhance ASML's market position and pricing power [24][60].

Core Insights - ASML reported Q3 2025 revenue of €7.5 billion, a 0.7% year-over-year increase, below market expectations of €7.7 billion, primarily driven by contributions from TSMC and customers in mainland China [1][17] - The gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, slightly above the company's guidance range of 50-52%, supported by an increase in service revenue [1][17] - Net profit for the quarter was €2.13 billion, a 2.3% year-over-year increase, with a net profit margin of 28.3% [1][20] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was €7.5 billion, with a gross profit of €3.88 billion, reflecting a gross margin of 51.6% [1][17] - Net income reached €2.13 billion, with a net profit margin of 28.3%, indicating stable operating expenses [1][20][21] - Research and development expenses were €1.11 billion, representing 14.8% of revenue, while selling and administrative expenses were €300 million, or 4% of revenue [18][21] Business Segments - Lithography system revenue was €5.55 billion, down 6.3% year-over-year, while service revenue increased by 27.3% to €1.96 billion [1][30] - EUV and ArFi systems accounted for nearly 66% of lithography system revenue, with EUV revenue at approximately €2.11 billion and ArFi at €2.89 billion [2][27] - The average selling price for EUV systems was around €23.5 million, while ArFi systems averaged €7.6 million [2][28] Regional Performance - Mainland China was the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 42% of total revenue, approximately €3.16 billion, significantly above the expected 25% [3][32] - Taiwan contributed around €2.26 billion, representing 30% of revenue, primarily driven by TSMC's demand [3][32] - Revenue from South Korea and the USA remained low due to reduced capital expenditures from major clients like Samsung and Intel [32] Order Trends and Future Guidance - The net order intake for the quarter was €5.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of €4.9 billion, indicating improved customer confidence [5][7] - For Q4 2025, ASML expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, above market expectations of €9.2 billion [7][14] - The company is positioned to benefit from increased capital expenditures in the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by AI demand and recovery in the storage sector [14][20]

Core Insights - The article discusses the geopolitical landscape of semiconductor manufacturing, emphasizing the dominance of ASML's EUV lithography systems as the only means to access advanced nodes below 5nm, which has locked the innovation pace of major companies like Apple, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [1] - The emergence of AI is shifting the demand for semiconductor manufacturing technologies, leading to a renewed interest in non-EUV technologies such as electron beam lithography (E-Beam Lithography) and others that were previously sidelined [1][14] Group 1: Non-EUV Technologies - Non-EUV technologies like E-Beam Lithography, Nanoimprint Lithography (NIL), and Maskless Lithography (ML2) have been considered alternatives but have struggled to enter mass production [1] - SecureFoundry's Hyper-Beam Array (HBA) lithography system utilizes 65,000 independently controlled electron beams, allowing AI chip designers to test multiple design variants simultaneously, significantly reducing production time and costs [5][7] - The HBA system is designed for flexible batch production, making it suitable for small-batch prototypes and advanced designs, and it operates effectively within the 22nm to 65nm process nodes [7] Group 2: Historical Context of E-Beam Technology - E-Beam technology has two main applications: mask writing and direct lithography, with the latter being less successful due to low throughput and high costs associated with batch production [8][9] - The multi-beam approach was explored by various companies, including TSMC, but faced challenges in commercialization due to technical difficulties and funding issues [9][10] - Mapper Lithography's multi-beam system was an early attempt to commercialize this technology but ultimately failed due to financial constraints, leading to its acquisition by ASML [10][11] Group 3: Current Developments and Future Prospects - The rise of AI and the need for flexible, rapid, and customizable lithography solutions have reignited interest in multi-beam electron beam technologies [14][15] - Multibeam has announced the industry's first multi-column electron beam lithography system (MEBL), claiming it offers over 100 times the throughput of traditional E-Beam systems, with configurations for 150mm, 200mm, and 300mm wafers [15][18] - The funding received by Multibeam will accelerate the development of next-generation MEBL platforms, catering to the semiconductor industry's demand for lower power and higher performance chips in the AI era [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - SK Hynix plans to double its EUV lithography equipment by purchasing approximately 20 additional ASML machines over the next two years, indicating a significant investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology [1][3]. Group 1: Investment and Equipment - SK Hynix currently owns about 20 EUV machines and aims to acquire an additional 20, which will increase its total to around 40 machines [1]. - The price of each EUV machine ranges from 300 billion to 500 billion Korean Won, leading to an estimated investment of at least 6 trillion Korean Won for this acquisition [3]. - The new equipment will be installed at the Cheongju M15X factory and the Icheon M16 factory, with M15X expected to start production by the end of this year [3]. Group 2: Production and Technology - The EUV lithography process has been commercialized in SK Hynix's memory segment since the introduction of 1a nm DRAM in 2021, and its application is steadily increasing with the evolution of memory generations [3]. - The demand for high-performance storage, particularly HBM, driven by AI development, necessitates more EUV equipment to expand the production scale of advanced DRAM [3]. - SK Hynix has also introduced its first mass-production High-NA EUV lithography machine, the ASML TWINSCAN EXE:5200B, in the memory industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - ASML reported strong Q2 2025 results with net sales of €7.7 billion, a gross margin of 53.7%, and a net profit of €2.29 billion, driven by robust demand for EUV lithography systems and a significant increase in new orders [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 net sales reached €7.692 billion, slightly down from Q1 2025's €7.742 billion, but still within the guidance range [4]. - Gross profit for Q2 2025 was €4.13 billion, with a gross margin of 53.7%, slightly lower than Q1's 54.0% [4]. - Net income for Q2 2025 was €2.29 billion, translating to earnings per share (EPS) of €5.90, down from €6.00 in Q1 [4][3]. Order and Sales Dynamics - New orders surged to €5.541 billion in Q2 2025, a 40.8% increase from €3.936 billion in Q1 2025, indicating strong market demand [3][4]. - EUV lithography systems accounted for €2.3 billion of the new orders, representing 41.5% of total bookings, highlighting the resilience in advanced process technology demand [3][2]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q3 2025 net sales to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin forecasted between 50% and 52% [5]. - For the full year 2025, ASML anticipates a 15% growth in total net sales, with a gross margin around 52% [5]. - The CEO noted ongoing uncertainties due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, which may impact growth projections for 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor market is experiencing a pullback due to tariffs, trade wars, and recession fears, but this creates attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors as the market is expected to grow significantly over the coming decades [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC - TSMC is the largest and most advanced contract chipmaker, relied upon by major companies like Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple for producing high-performance chips [4][5]. - In the latest quarter, TSMC generated 59% of its revenue from the high-performance computing (HPC) market and 28% from the smartphone market, with HPC growth offsetting smartphone market softness [5]. - TSMC's revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% from 2024 to 2027, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% [8]. Group 2: ASML - ASML is the largest producer of lithography systems and the only producer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, essential for manufacturing advanced chips [9][10]. - ASML's low-NA EUV systems cost approximately $180 million each, while high-NA systems cost around $380 million, giving the company significant pricing power [10]. - Analysts expect ASML's revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 12% and 19%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027 [11]. Group 3: Arm Holdings - Arm designs power-efficient CPUs, which are widely used in smartphones, tablets, IoT devices, and connected vehicles, capturing about 99% of the smartphone market [13][14]. - Arm plans to develop its own first-party chips, which could enhance its competitiveness and reduce costs by eliminating licensing fees [15]. - From fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027, Arm's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 23%, while EPS is projected to grow at 81% [16].