媒体汇编的数据显示，特斯拉预计将在周五公布第四季度交付约44.09万辆汽车，同比下降11%。而特 斯拉本周采取了一项不同寻常的举措，主动发布了自家汇总的分析师平均预期，这一数字甚至比市场预 期更加悲观，预计第四季度交付量将同比下降15%。 华尔街对特斯拉2026年的汽车销售前景同样愈发悲观。就在两年前，分析师们还预计特斯拉的年交付量 将超过300万辆。而如今，对2026年交付量的平均预测已骤降至约180万辆。 CFRA Research股票分析师加勒特·纳尔逊(Garrett Nelson)表示："特斯拉投资者关注的是公司在未来5 年、10年甚至15年后的样子，而不太在意短期内看到的情况。但问题在于，这种预期能否持续，尤其是 在我们认为财务数据中逆风将愈发明显的情况下。" 智通财经APP获悉，随着投资者越来越相信埃隆·马斯克对自动驾驶汽车的热情描绘，特斯拉(TSLA.US) 以超11%的股价涨幅结束了2025年。这家全球市值最高的汽车制造商股价在2025年下半年大幅上涨，主 要原因是马斯克大力宣扬特斯拉在人工智能和机器人技术方面的进展。然而，要真正打动汽车消费者却 是另一回事。马斯克所高调宣称的这些突破，并未 ...

Core Points - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has initiated an investigation into approximately 2.88 million Tesla vehicles equipped with the Full-Self Driving (FSD) system due to over 50 reports of traffic safety violations and accidents [1] - The investigation includes 58 reports, with 14 accidents resulting in 23 injuries, raising concerns about the FSD system's ability to recognize traffic signals and stop at red lights [1] - Tesla's stock price fell by 5.06% on October 10, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $7.322 billion [1] Group 1: Investigation and Legal Challenges - Tesla's FSD system has faced scrutiny due to safety concerns, with an average of one accident occurring every 6.69 million miles when using FSD, compared to one accident every 0.963 million miles without it [2] - The NHTSA has been investigating Tesla's Autopilot system since August 2021, with at least 322 accidents reported, highlighting "critical safety gaps" [3] - Tesla has faced multiple lawsuits in China regarding the FSD feature's advertised capabilities versus actual performance, with claims of fraud from customers [3][4] Group 2: Technological Developments - Tesla has released a significant update to the FSD system (version 14.1), which includes ten new features aimed at improving environmental perception and handling various scenarios [5] - The FSD system's reliance on a "pure vision" technology approach has sparked debate regarding its safety and effectiveness compared to multi-sensor systems [7] - The recent FSD update has been approved for use in North America, indicating potential for broader deployment in China, although the timeline for HW3.0 hardware models remains uncertain [8]

Core Points - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has initiated an investigation into approximately 2.88 million Tesla vehicles equipped with the Full-Self Driving (FSD) system due to over 50 reports of traffic safety violations and accidents [1] - The investigation includes 58 reports, with 14 accidents resulting in 23 injuries, raising concerns about the FSD system's ability to recognize traffic signals and stop at red lights [1] - Tesla's stock price fell by 5.06% on October 10, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $7.322 billion [1] Group 1: Investigation and Legal Challenges - The NHTSA's investigation is in the preliminary assessment stage, and if unreasonable safety risks are identified, Tesla may be required to conduct a recall [1] - Tesla has faced ongoing scrutiny and legal challenges regarding the safety and maturity of its Autopilot and FSD technologies, with a significant number of accident reports and lawsuits globally [2] - A jury in Florida ruled that Tesla was responsible for a 2019 accident involving the Autopilot system, ordering the company to pay $240 million in damages [3] Group 2: Consumer Complaints and Regulatory Issues - Tesla has been accused of misleading consumers regarding the capabilities of its FSD system, with legal experts suggesting potential violations of advertising laws in China [4] - Multiple lawsuits have been filed in China, with consumers claiming that Tesla's hardware cannot support the advertised FSD capabilities, seeking compensation [3][4] - The recent upgrade to FSD V14.1 includes ten new features aimed at improving environmental perception and response to various scenarios, despite ongoing controversies [5] Group 3: Technical Challenges and Industry Perspectives - Tesla's reliance on a "pure vision" technology approach, which uses cameras and neural networks without lidar, has raised concerns about its ability to ensure safety in all driving conditions [7] - Industry experts highlight the limitations of the pure vision approach, particularly in low-light situations and challenging environmental conditions [7] - The debate over the optimal technical route for autonomous driving continues, with no consensus reached within the industry [7] Group 4: Market and Future Developments - The FSD V14.1 update is currently available only to North American users, but there are indications that it may soon be rolled out in China [8] - The recent software update suggests that Tesla's FSD has passed regulatory approval in China, marking a significant step towards broader deployment [8] - The rollout of FSD features for vehicles with HW3.0 hardware remains uncertain, indicating a cautious approach to market expansion in China [8]