Core Insights - AstraZeneca reported revenue of $14.46 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting an 11.7% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +3.04% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.03 billion [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.09, unchanged from the consensus estimate, compared to $0.99 in the same quarter last year [1] Financial Performance Metrics - AstraZeneca's stock has returned +2.8% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +3.6% [3] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3] Segment Performance - BioPharmaceuticals - CVRM - Farxiga: $106 million, +2.9% year-over-year, slightly below the average estimate of $106.86 million [4] - BioPharmaceuticals - V&I - Europe: $24 million, +242.9% year-over-year, significantly above the average estimate of $15.81 million [4] - BioPharmaceuticals - CVRM - Lokelma: $37 million, +32.1% year-over-year, above the average estimate of $34.81 million [4] - BioPharmaceuticals - CVRM - Crestor: $32 million, -11.1% year-over-year, below the average estimate of $35.95 million [4] - Oncology - Tagrisso: $209 million, +9.4% year-over-year, slightly below the average estimate of $215.72 million [4] - Oncology - Imfinzi: $174 million, -4.9% year-over-year, below the average estimate of $191.28 million [4] - Oncology - Lynparza: $69 million, +4.6% year-over-year, below the average estimate of $74.14 million [4] - Oncology - Calquence: $42 million, +27.3% year-over-year, above the average estimate of $36.78 million [4] - Overall Oncology: $591 million, +5.4% year-over-year, below the average estimate of $607.27 million [4] - BioPharmaceuticals - R&I - Symbicort: $91 million, +9.6% year-over-year, above the average estimate of $86.31 million [4] - BioPharmaceuticals - R&I - Fasenra: $44 million, +18.9% year-over-year, above the average estimate of $42.25 million [4] - BioPharmaceuticals - R&I - Breztri: $25 million, +31.6% year-over-year, slightly above the average estimate of $24.8 million [4]

Financial Performance - Total Revenue increased by 11% to $28045 million in H1 2025[9, 21] - Core EPS increased by 17% in H1 2025[9, 22] - Product Sales reached $26670 million in H1 2025, representing 95% of Total Revenue[21, 22] - Alliance Revenue contributed $1293 million to Total Revenue in H1 2025, accounting for 5%[21, 22] - Net cash inflow from operating activities increased by 27% in H1 2025[31] Pipeline and Approvals - 19 new approvals were obtained in key regions[9] - 12 positive Phase III readouts were achieved[9] - First Phase III data was reported for 5 NMEs[9] - Readouts across 2025 represent combined >$10 billion opportunity[14] Segment Performance - Oncology Total Revenue reached $120 billion in H1 2025, a 16% increase[36, 37] - BioPharmaceuticals Total Revenue was $66 billion in H1 2025, up by 10%[47, 48] - Rare Disease Total Revenue amounted to $43 billion in H1 2025, a 3% increase[58, 59] Geographical Distribution - US accounted for 43% of Total Revenue in H1 2025, amounting to $11955 million[12] - Europe contributed 21% of Total Revenue in H1 2025, totaling $5825 million[12] - China represented 13% of Total Revenue in H1 2025, with $3515 million[12]

Industry Overview - The second-quarter 2025 reporting cycle for the Medical sector is commencing, with most firms expected to release earnings results in the next two weeks, primarily consisting of pharma/biotech and medical device companies [1] - The earnings season for the drug and biotech sector began in mid-July, highlighted by Johnson & Johnson's strong performance, which exceeded earnings and sales estimates, leading to raised revenue and earnings expectations for the year [1] Company Performance - Novartis surpassed second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, driven by a year-over-year increase in sales of key drugs, prompting an upward revision of its annual guidance for core operating income [2] - Roche experienced solid growth in the first half of 2025, with high demand for key drugs offsetting declines in legacy drug sales [2] - As of July 23, 15% of companies in the Medical sector, representing 27.2% of the sector's market capitalization, reported quarterly earnings, with 88.9% outperforming earnings estimates and 100% beating revenue estimates [3] - Overall, second-quarter earnings for the Medical sector are projected to increase by 0.9%, while sales are expected to rise by 7.9% compared to the previous year [3] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Merck, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers, AbbVie, and Moderna are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week [4] - Merck has a strong earnings track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 3.82% [5] - AstraZeneca has a mixed earnings history, beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 4.24% [8] - Bristol Myers has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 20.16% over the last four quarters [11] - AbbVie has also maintained a strong track record, beating estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 2.55% [13] - Moderna has an excellent earnings history, with an average surprise of 31.60% in the last four quarters [15] Sales Drivers - Merck's growth in the second quarter is likely attributed to increased sales of its cancer drug Keytruda, driven by additional indications and patient demand [7] - AstraZeneca's sales are expected to be bolstered by strong demand for its cancer and diabetes medications [10] - Bristol Myers' revenue may be impacted by declines in legacy drug sales, but growth products are expected to partially offset this decline [12] - AbbVie's revenue is anticipated to be driven by strong sales of key drugs and contributions from newer products [14] - Moderna's revenues are expected to be influenced by sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, while the focus is shifting to updates on its broader pipeline [16]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs provided key insights on AstraZeneca at its 46th Global Healthcare Conference, highlighting the company's management's reaffirmation of limited impact from potential drug tariffs and a clearer path to achieving $80 billion in revenue by 2030, alongside a target operating profit margin of around 35% [1] Group 1: Financial Outlook - AstraZeneca aims for an operating profit margin of approximately 35% while acknowledging uncertainties such as the inclusion of Farxiga in China's volume-based procurement in late 2025 and potential price reductions in the U.S. due to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) [2] - The company expects revenue growth and cost control to jointly drive profit margin improvements, with a projected impact of a few percentage points on total revenue from the redesign of the Medicare Part D program in 2025 [2] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on AstraZeneca with a 12-month price target of $97, indicating nearly a 33% upside from the stock's closing price on June 9 [1] Group 2: Drug Development and Pipeline - AstraZeneca is optimistic about the Phase 3 trial of baxdrostat, learning from previous Phase 2 trials, and expects peak sales of $5 billion, with half from monotherapy and half from combination therapy with dapagliflozin [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of initiating cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic disease (CVRM) drug trials early to gather sufficient data for reimbursement purposes, despite these trials not being required for regulatory approval [3] - AstraZeneca is confident in the prospects of Enhertu for first-line treatment in HER2-positive breast cancer, reporting about a 50% complete response rate in metastatic patients [4] Group 3: Regulatory and Market Considerations - AstraZeneca's management noted uncertainties regarding the implementation of Most Favored Nation clauses and the IRA's role in lowering drug prices, while supporting increased healthcare budgets in European countries to foster innovation [2] - The company is increasing its investment in biologics while continuing to invest in small molecule drugs, such as oral GLP-1 and PCSK9 inhibitors [2] - AstraZeneca does not foresee ESR1 mutation testing as a barrier to the promotion of camizestrant, citing several operational advantages and prior experience with BRCA testing [3]

Core Viewpoint - AstraZeneca's stock has faced a decline of 6.4% over the past three months, primarily due to broader market uncertainties and a volatile macroeconomic environment [1] Company Overview - AstraZeneca has a strong portfolio with 16 blockbuster drugs, each generating over $1 billion in sales, including Tagrisso, Fasenra, and Lynparza [4] - The company is optimistic about continued growth in its product portfolio, expecting strong performance from new drugs like Wainua and Airsupra [5] Oncology Segment - Oncology is AstraZeneca's largest segment, contributing approximately 41% to total revenues, with sales rising 13% to $5.6 billion in Q1 2025 [6] - The approval of new cancer drugs, such as Truqap, has led to significant sales, with $430 million in 2024 and $132 million in Q1 2025 [7] - AstraZeneca anticipates ongoing growth in oncology medicines, particularly Tagrisso and Enhertu, despite some challenges [8] Challenges and Headwinds - The Part D redesign is expected to negatively impact sales of older and newer drugs in the U.S. throughout 2025 [9] - Pricing pressures in Europe and the introduction of generics, such as Brilinta, are anticipated to affect sales [10] - Ongoing investigations at AstraZeneca's China subsidiary regarding medical insurance fraud and other issues may pose additional challenges [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - AstraZeneca's stock has increased by 8.2% this year, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [12] - The stock is currently trading at a price/earnings ratio of 14.93, slightly above the industry average but below its five-year mean of 18.05 [15] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have risen from $4.47 to $4.50 per share over the past 60 days, indicating a positive outlook [19] Future Growth Prospects - AstraZeneca aims for total revenues to reach $80 billion by 2030, up from $54 billion in 2024, with plans to launch 20 new medicines [23] - The company expects to achieve a core operating margin in the mid-30s percentage by 2026, reflecting strong growth potential [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Overall revenue growth for pharmaceutical companies has slowed down, with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk showing significant increases of 45% and 18% respectively in Q1 2025, while other companies like GSK and Merck faced low single-digit growth or declines [3][5] - The U.S. drug price reform and uncertain macroeconomic environment are impacting the industry, with the Trump administration's executive order promoting "Most Favored Nation" pricing potentially reducing the pricing power of large pharmaceutical companies [3][7] - The next five years will see several blockbuster drugs facing patent expirations, prompting pharmaceutical companies to pursue business development (BD) transactions to enhance revenue and fill pipeline gaps [3][13] Summary by Sections 01 Overview of Q1 2025 Performance - The top 15 pharmaceutical companies had a combined R&D expenditure of $31.8 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [8] 02 Revenue and Guidance - Eli Lilly reported Q1 2025 revenue of $12.7 billion, a 45% increase year-on-year, with a full-year guidance of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion [5] - Pfizer's revenue decreased by 6% to $13.7 billion in Q1 2025, with a full-year guidance of $61.0 billion to $64.0 billion [6] 03 Drug Price Reform and Macro Environment - The Trump administration's executive order aims to provide U.S. patients with "Most Favored Nation" pricing, which could pressure drug prices downward [7] - A proposed budget plan by the Republican party includes significant cuts to Medicaid, potentially impacting pharmaceutical revenues [7] 04 Upcoming Patent Expirations - Several key products are approaching patent expiration, including Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide and JNJ's Invega Sustenna, which could lead to increased competition and revenue challenges [13][14] 05 Recent Business Development Projects - Notable recent BD transactions include JNJ's acquisition of IntraCellular for $14.6 billion to enhance its pipeline in mental health treatments [15][16]

Core Insights - Astrazeneca reported $13.59 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 7.2% [1] - The EPS for the same period was $1.24, compared to $1.03 a year ago, representing a surprise of +12.73% over the consensus estimate [1][3] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by -0.66% [1] Financial Performance - Astrazeneca's stock has returned -4.9% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.8% change [3] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3] Key Product Metrics - Oncology product Tagrisso generated $678 million in the U.S., slightly below the average estimate of $684.78 million [4] - BioPharmaceuticals product Farxiga in Established RoW reported $120 million, exceeding the estimate of $101.67 million, with a year-over-year change of +11.1% [4] - Oncology product Enhertu in Established RoW achieved $19 million, compared to the estimate of $21.59 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +46.2% [4] - Enhertu in Europe reported $43 million, surpassing the estimate of $36.98 million, with a year-over-year change of +65.4% [4] - BioPharmaceuticals product Symbicort generated $723 million, below the estimate of $772.02 million [4] - Pulmicort reported $158 million, compared to the estimate of $197.96 million [4] - Crestor achieved $316 million, exceeding the estimate of $294.03 million, with a year-over-year change of +6.4% [4] - Seloken/Toprol-XL reported $161 million, slightly above the estimate of $154.45 million, with a year-over-year change of -2.4% [4] - Tagrisso worldwide generated $1.68 billion, slightly above the estimate of $1.67 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of +5.3% [4] - Synagis reported $112 million, below the estimate of $132.88 million, with a year-over-year change of -34.5% [4] - Fasenra achieved $418 million, exceeding the estimate of $379.51 million [4] - Brilinta reported $305 million, above the estimate of $263.03 million, with a year-over-year change of -5.6% [4]

Core Earnings and Revenue Performance - AstraZeneca's first-quarter 2025 core earnings were $1.24 per American depositary share (ADS), exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.10, with core earnings of $2.49 per share reflecting a 21% year-over-year increase at constant exchange rates (CER) [1][2] - Total revenues reached $13.59 billion, a 7% increase on a reported basis and 10% at CER, although this figure fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.68 billion [2] Product Sales and Therapeutic Areas - Product sales increased by 9% to $12.88 billion, driven by strong demand for marketed products [3] - Oncology product sales rose 13%, while Cardiovascular, Renal and Metabolism (CVRM) product sales increased by 12%, and Respiratory & Immunology (R&I) segment sales grew by 11%. However, sales in the Rare Disease segment remained flat, and Vaccines & Immune (V&I) Therapies saw a decline of 30% [4] Collaboration Revenues - Collaboration revenues totaled $74 million, a 64% increase attributed to a sales milestone for Farxiga in Japan, while alliance revenues rose 42% to $639 million, driven by growth from partnered medicines [5][6] Key Drug Performance - Tagrisso sales reached $1.68 billion, up 8%, surpassing estimates [7] - Lynparza sales increased by 5% to $726 million but missed estimates due to soft performance in emerging markets and U.S. headwinds [8][9] - Imfinzi generated $1.26 billion in sales, up 16%, but also missed estimates [9] - Calquence sales rose 8% to $762 million, beating estimates [10] - New drug Truqap recorded $132 million in revenues, down from the previous quarter due to Medicare Part D redesign impacts [11] Segment Performance - In the CVRM segment, Farxiga sales were $2.06 billion, up 16%, benefiting from label expansions [12] - Brilinta/Brilique sales decreased by 4% to $305 million, while new drug Wainua added $39 million in sales [13] - In the R&I segment, Symbicort sales declined by 3% to $723 million, and Pulmicort sales fell by 26% [14] - Fasenra recorded a 19% increase in sales to $418 million, exceeding estimates [15] - In the Rare Disease portfolio, Soliris sales fell 38% to $444 million, while Ultomiris revenues rose 25% to $1.05 billion [17] Cost and Guidance - Core selling, general and administrative expenses increased by 4% to $3.46 billion, while core research and development expenses rose 16% to $3.09 billion [19] - AstraZeneca maintained its 2025 guidance, expecting total revenues to grow by a high single-digit percentage at CER and core EPS to increase by a low double-digit percentage [20] Strategic Updates - AstraZeneca announced the discontinuation of the CAPItello-280 study for Truqap in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer [22] - The company received a positive recommendation for a label expansion involving Calquence for CLL treatment [23] - AstraZeneca plans to launch 20 new medicines by 2030, targeting $80 billion in total annual revenues by the end of the decade [29]

Core Insights - AstraZeneca's Q1 2025 profits exceeded expectations, reaffirming its full-year guidance [1] - The company reported total revenue of $13.59 billion, which fell short of market expectations, while core EPS was $2.49, reflecting a 21% year-over-year increase [1] - Revenue growth was driven by double-digit increases in oncology and biopharmaceuticals, with a 10% year-over-year growth in total revenue [1] Revenue and Sales Performance - Sales of diabetes and heart disease drug Farxiga exceeded expectations by nearly 6%, and revenue from the newer oncology drug Enhertu also surpassed forecasts [1] - However, sales of other major oncology drugs were below expectations [1] Tax and Regulatory Issues - AstraZeneca may face a fine of up to $8 million due to alleged unpaid import taxes in China, with a suspected amount of $1.6 million identified [1] - The company previously estimated a potential fine of $4.5 million related to import taxes for two other oncology drugs, Imfinzi and Imjudo, which reassured analysts [2] Performance Guidance - AstraZeneca reaffirmed its revenue and core EPS guidance for FY 2025, expecting total revenue to grow at a high single-digit percentage and core EPS to grow at a double-digit percentage [3] - The company is committed to investing $3.5 billion in its U.S. operations by the end of 2026, focusing on R&D and manufacturing [3]

Core Insights - Astrazeneca (AZN) is projected to report quarterly earnings of $1.10 per share, a 6.8% increase year-over-year, with revenues expected to reach $13.68 billion, reflecting a 7.9% year-over-year growth [1] Earnings Projections - There have been no revisions in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' forecasts [1] - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [2] Key Metrics Estimates - Analysts predict 'BioPharmaceuticals- CVRM- Crestor- World' will reach $294.03 million, a -1% change year-over-year [4] - The estimate for 'BioPharmaceuticals- CVRM- Seloken/Toprol-XL- World' is $154.45 million, indicating a -6.4% change [4] - 'Oncology- Zoladex- World' is estimated at $268.24 million, reflecting a -2.8% change [4] Additional Product Estimates - 'Oncology- Tagrisso- World' is expected to reach $1.67 billion, a +4.6% change year-over-year [5] - The consensus for 'BioPharmaceuticals- CVRM- Crestor- U.S.' stands at $8.31 million, indicating a -16.9% change [5] - 'Other Medicines- Nexium- U.S.' is projected at $19.28 million, suggesting a -12.4% change [5] Further Product Insights - 'BioPharmaceuticals- R&I- Fasenra- U.S.' is forecasted to reach $220.22 million, a +4.9% change [6] - 'BioPharmaceuticals- CVRM- Brilinta- U.S.' is estimated at $133.59 million, indicating an -18% change [6] - 'Oncology- Lynparza- U.S.' is projected at $302.67 million, reflecting a +5.1% change [6] Oncology Product Forecasts - 'Oncology- Imfinzi- U.S.' is expected to come in at $719.14 million, a +23.6% change year-over-year [7] - 'Oncology- Calquence- U.S.' is projected at $493.39 million, indicating a -0.1% change [7] - 'BioPharmaceuticals- CVRM- Farxiga- U.S.' is estimated to reach $489.15 million, reflecting a +3% change [7] Stock Performance - Astrazeneca shares have decreased by -5.8% over the past month, compared to a -5.1% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8] - With a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), AZN is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the near future [8]