新的一年，海外短剧市场的热度不减。回看过去的2025年，整个市场的增长相当猛，据报道全年收入超过23亿美元，下载量突破12亿次，同比均实现大幅 增长。 中国厂商依旧占据绝对的领先优势，几乎包揽了短剧APP海外收入榜TOP20。像《MyDrama》表面上看出自乌克兰团队，但据网友爆料幕后老板同样来自 中国；《Playlet》的创始人则曾担任欢聚时代总经理、虎牙直播负责人。 | | | | 2025年短剧APP收入 海外 App Store + Google Play | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 制图:游戏新知 (youxixinzhi) | | | | | 排名 | | 名称 | 公司 | 收入(美元) | 环比增长 | 排名变化 | | 1 | | ReelShort | 枫叶互动 | | 112% | 1 | | 2 | | DramaBox | 点众科技 | | 75% | ← | | 3 | | GoodShort | 新闻时代 | | 200% | 1 | | 4 | | Dramawave | 昆仑万维 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese enterprises are undergoing a transformation in their global expansion strategies, evolving from exporting raw materials to products, and now to innovative business models, particularly in the cultural sector with short dramas [2][3]. Group 1: Evolution of Globalization - The first phase of globalization for Chinese companies involved exporting raw materials, such as tea [3]. - The second phase began in 2001 with China's entry into the WTO, leading to the global distribution of Chinese manufactured products [3]. - The current phase is characterized by the export of innovative business models, exemplified by platforms like Temu and TikTok, which integrate products, services, and operational models for global markets [3]. Group 2: Short Drama Industry - The short drama format, created by Chinese Online five years ago, compresses traditional TV episodes from 40-50 minutes to 1-3 minutes, catering to the fast-paced consumption habits of younger audiences [3]. - In 2022, the short drama market in China generated nearly 1 billion yuan in a single month, attracting over 100,000 companies to enter the sector [3]. - By 2024, the Chinese short drama market is projected to exceed 50.5 billion yuan, surpassing the Chinese film market, which is expected to be over 40 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Global Impact and Future Prospects - The short drama platform ReelShort achieved over 1 million downloads in a single day, surpassing TikTok, while FlareFlow also topped download charts in North America [4]. - The global audience for short dramas spans 160 countries, establishing it as a significant cultural phenomenon alongside Hollywood films and Korean dramas [4]. - The global long video market is anticipated to exceed 100 billion dollars by 2024, with short dramas expected to surpass this figure due to their innovative format and content density [4][5]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The integration of artificial intelligence in short drama production has significantly reduced costs and production time, making it more efficient [5]. - The cost of producing animated content has been reduced to one-tenth of previous expenses, with production time cut from three years to three weeks [5].

中文在线（300364.SZ）又双叒叕亏损了。 1月13日，中文在线发布2025年度业绩预告显示，公司归母净利润亏损约5.8亿元-7亿元，比上年同期减少139%-188%，亏损原因是为扩大海外业务规模， 对海外短剧业务加大推广投入。 2025年4月28日，中文在线集团董事长兼总裁童之磊强调，"出海"是集团优先战略，未来10年，全球内容产业最大的战略机会，就是国际短剧市场，有机 会增长为千亿人民币赛道，甚至是千亿美金赛道。因此，"我们要聚集所有战略资源，支持国际短剧业务的迅猛发展"。 亏损再次成为这家公司年报的底色，而这次，它赌上了更多的资本押注在海外短剧这片尚未被验证的蓝海。 截至1月16日收盘，中文在线报收于32.91元/股，跌幅8.46%，总市值239.75亿元。 另外，中文在线的商业模式也存在缺陷：江瀚认为，中文在线虽然在IP储备方面有一定优势，但在短剧制作、海外运营、算法推荐等关键环节并无显著护 城河。 图源：罐头图库 "豪赌"短剧出海，投入加剧，收益未现 中文在线2023年就开始布局国际短剧业务，2024年以来将战略重点转向短剧出海。 针对短剧出海，中文在线先后推出Sereal+、UniReel和F ...

岁末年初，随着两家大模型赴港登陆资本市场，两市AI应用板块都再度迎来情绪性回暖，A股"易中 天"概念股一度联动走强，中文在线（300364.SZ）也曾在短期内获得超20%的阶段性涨幅。 然而，1月中旬披露的2025年年度业绩预告，却迅速将市场拉回基本面现实。中文在线预计全年归母净 亏损较上年同期进一步扩大。随后，中文在线进入调整阶段。 原以为市场不在乎，但AI+出海的宏大叙事还是没能撑住情绪带来的下跌。这次调整，会在何时停止， 又带来什么变化？ 对于亏损的扩大，公司将核心原因明确指向海外短剧业务的规模化投入。作为"国际优先"战略下的新核 心平台，FlareFlow自2025年4月上线后，快速覆盖177个国家和地区，支持11种语言，上线5个月即登顶 美区娱乐应用免费榜。 但这些用户与榜单成绩，是建立在极高的获客与投流成本之上的。2025年前三季度，中文在线销售费用 高达6.6亿元，同比近乎翻倍，是研发费用的12倍以上；仅第三季度，销售费用就达到3.94亿元，占当季 营收比重接近87%。 这种费用结构意味着，FlareFlow当前仍处在用资本换时间、用规模换未来效率的阶段，商业模型尚未 穿越盈亏平衡点。为此，这份 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Zhongwen Online has recently declined by 7.01% after a significant increase, raising concerns about potential risks associated with its rapid growth and financial performance [1][11]. Financial Performance - Zhongwen Online's stock price increased by 53.90% from January 5 to January 13, significantly outperforming the ChiNext index and industry averages, but this rapid rise has led to a warning about potential pullbacks [3][13]. - The company anticipates a substantial net loss for 2025, projected to be between 5.8 billion and 7 billion yuan, worsening from a loss of 2.43 billion yuan in the previous year [5][15]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Zhongwen Online reported a revenue increase of 25.12% to 1.011 billion yuan, but the net loss expanded from 1.88 billion yuan to 5.2 billion yuan [6][16]. Business Strategy - The company is heavily investing in expanding its overseas short drama business, which is currently in a critical investment phase, leading to significant short-term costs that are not yet covered by revenue [3][5]. - Zhongwen Online's sales expenses reached 660 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, nearly doubling from the previous year, while R&D expenses also increased by 41.86% to 53.37 million yuan [6][16][17]. - The company has launched the FlareFlow platform, which has seen rapid growth, covering 177 countries and achieving significant user engagement, but this success comes with high operational costs [8][18]. Market Position and Challenges - Zhongwen Online has a history of pursuing various market trends, which has led to inconsistent financial performance, with four years of losses totaling 2.336 billion yuan since its IPO [10][20]. - The company has shifted its focus to AI and overseas expansion as core strategies, but the frequent changes in direction have raised concerns about the sustainability of its growth [9][20].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongwen Online, has expanded its overseas business, launching its flagship short drama platform FlareFlow and web literature platform Rocnovel in various international app stores [2] Group 1 - The overseas business of the company covers multiple countries and regions globally [2]

Group 1 - The company is actively developing its overseas business and aims to promote cultural exports [2] - The flagship short drama platform FlareFlow and the web literature platform Rocnovel have been launched in overseas app stores [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese micro-drama market reached a scale of 37.39 billion yuan in 2023, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 267.65% [1] - The domestic micro-drama market is expected to surpass movie box office revenue for the first time in 2024, with a notable shift in the online video industry landscape by 2025 [3] - The overseas micro-drama market is projected to generate a total revenue of 1.525 billion USD from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 194.9% [3] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic short drama industry has a well-structured supply chain, with upstream IP copyright holders, midstream content producers, and downstream distribution channels [6] - The production capacity for short dramas in China exceeds 40,000 episodes annually, with 80%-90% of overseas content being dubbed versions of domestic dramas [7] - The profitability of domestic short dramas is under pressure, as exemplified by the financial struggles of companies like Zhongwen Online, which reported a net loss of 294 million yuan in Q3 2025 despite a revenue increase of 31.43% [12] International Expansion Challenges - The overseas micro-drama market faces challenges such as localization difficulties and the complexity of operating in foreign markets, leading to a lack of blockbuster hits [4] - TikTok's new feature "TikTok Minis" aims to enhance the distribution of short dramas by allowing users to watch them directly within the app, potentially changing the landscape for overseas short dramas [5] - The reliance on dubbed dramas for international markets is prevalent, with local productions accounting for only 10%-20% of the content [7] Future Outlook - The global micro-drama market is expected to reach 3 billion USD in revenue by 2025, nearly tripling from the previous year [3] - The trend of localizing content is crucial for success in international markets, but it also increases production costs and complexity [20] - The emergence of AI in content production may help reduce costs and improve efficiency, as seen with platforms like Vigloo [24] Competitive Landscape - Domestic companies are facing increased competition from local entities in international markets, with significant investments from major players like Disney and Fox in short drama production [22] - The balance between localization and maintaining cost-effective production methods remains a critical challenge for companies looking to expand internationally [20][21] - The cultural nuances in storytelling and audience preferences present inherent challenges in the localization of short dramas [18][19]

Core Insights - The popularity of micro-dramas is surging globally, particularly in the Middle East, with significant engagement from users in countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar [1][12][23] Group 1: Market Trends - Micro-dramas have gained traction in various international markets, including the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia, with notable interest from affluent Middle Eastern audiences [1][12] - A viral post on social media highlighted a Saudi user enthusiastically showcasing multiple short drama apps, indicating a strong cultural interest in Chinese content [1][3][5] Group 2: Market Data - By December 2025, the Middle East is projected to have a total of 314,000 micro-drama materials, with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar being the largest markets [12][14] - The top three micro-drama apps in the Middle East by material volume are NetShort, DramaWave, and My Drama, with respective material counts of 41,579, 41,009, and 34,817 [13] Group 3: User Engagement - User retention and willingness to pay for content are reportedly high among users, suggesting a lucrative market for micro-dramas [7][12] - Saudi Arabia leads in download volume, accounting for 61% of the total downloads in the region, with a total of 1.369 million downloads [18] Group 4: Revenue Insights - The highest revenue-generating apps in the Middle East include GoodShort, NetShort, and ReelShort, with revenues of $482,000, $420,000, and $372,000 respectively [18] - Saudi Arabia also ranks first in revenue generation, achieving $731,000, which constitutes 34% of the total revenue in the region [18] Group 5: Content Analysis - The top micro-dramas in the Middle East include titles like "I'm Her Most Dangerous Obsession" and "Broken Vows, Royal Lies," with significant material volumes indicating strong viewer interest [20][21] - A notable portion of the top micro-dramas consists of Chinese dubbed versions, reflecting the growing acceptance of Chinese content in the Middle Eastern market [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company is set to benefit from the ongoing wave of overseas expansion and plans to accelerate its global strategy through a proposed H-share listing in Hong Kong [4][5]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 455 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.43%, primarily driven by the rapid expansion of its overseas short drama platform, FlareFlow [5]. - The overseas short drama market is projected to reach a size of 3.2 billion USD in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 200%, indicating a high-growth phase for the industry [6]. - The company has a strong position in the overseas short drama sector, with its platform ReelShort being a market leader in terms of downloads and revenue [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 23.60 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 17.2 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 729 million shares, with 660 million shares in circulation [3]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 38.5%, indicating a relatively stable financial structure [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.4 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively, with a consistent growth trajectory [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -100 million yuan in 2025, improving to 82 million yuan in 2026 and 313 million yuan in 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -0.14 yuan in 2025, turning positive at 0.11 yuan in 2026 and 0.43 yuan in 2027 [10].