2026 年 2 月山西证券发布传媒行业年度策略报告，指出行业将由AI 应用 + IP 生态双轮驱动，基本面有望持续向好，维持行业 "领先大市 - A" 评级，重点推 荐昆仑万维、上海电影、电魂网络三只标的。 2025 年传媒行业业绩与市场表现双丰收，全年指数累计上涨 27.17%，位列申万 31 个一级子行业第 9 位，游戏、电视广播子板块涨幅居前，分别达 60.50%、20.80%。2025 年 Q1-Q3 行业实现营收 3872.78 亿元、归母净利润 321.09 亿元，同比分别增长 5.75%、37.88%，影视院线、游戏净利润增速亮眼， 分别达 108.5%、88.6%，AI 赋能与游戏行业回暖成为板块上涨核心催化剂，当前行业 PE (TTM) 27.08x，估值未过度透支增长预期。 AI 领域成为行业核心增长引擎，大模型多模态能力升级推动应用场景持续拓展，2025 年全球 AI 应用 MAU 超 15 亿、国内达 5.4 亿，预计 2030 年全球 AI 市场规模将突破 1.8 万亿美元，CAGR 达 37.3%。AI 搜索重塑信息入口，带动生成式引擎优化（GEO）市场爆发，2025 年全球、国 ...

Group 1: AI and Power Equipment - Alphabet plans to raise $20 billion through bond issuance, exceeding previous expectations, to invest heavily in data centers crucial for its AI strategy [1] - The global demand for high-power, stable electricity supply for AI computing is increasing, leading to a supply-demand gap in high-voltage power equipment [1] - TBEA is a leading private transformer manufacturer in China, capable of integrated services in high-voltage cables and accessories [2] Group 2: AI and Security - The integration of AI into cybersecurity is creating new opportunities, with safety and trust becoming core themes in the industry [3] - The implementation of new cybersecurity regulations in China marks a shift towards more detailed governance in the sector [3] - Anheng Information has launched China's first AI security agent, enhancing its capabilities in various security scenarios [4] Group 3: Metal Prices - The price of indium has surged to its highest level in over a decade, with a significant increase of 88% from 2500 RMB/KG to 4700 RMB/KG [5] - China accounts for 70% of global indium production, and the supply growth has been limited, indicating potential for further price increases [5] - Xiyang Co. holds the largest indium resource reserves globally, producing 101.62 tons of indium [5] Group 4: Tourism Industry - The domestic tourism market is expected to see a 300% increase in planned trips during the upcoming Spring Festival, indicating a strong recovery [6] - Companies like Sanxia Tourism are expanding their offerings to meet diverse consumer demands, including high-end cruise services [7] Group 5: AI Content Creation - Reading Group is focusing on AI-driven content creation, aiming to enhance the efficiency and value of IP development [8] - Daily Interactive provides data intelligence services, catering to the short video and short drama sectors [9] Group 6: Automotive Industry - The Ministry of Commerce is implementing measures to boost automotive consumption, including trade reforms and policies to support vehicle replacement [11] - Companies like Feilong Co. and Xingyu Co. are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the automotive sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Wanwei is strategically shifting its focus from competing directly with major players in the AI field to building a differentiated competitive advantage in vertical markets and overseas expansion, aiming for long-term market positioning and ecological advantages rather than short-term profitability [2][5][9]. Financial Performance - For 2025, Kunlun Wanwei forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders between 1.35 billion to 1.95 billion CNY, continuing the trend of losses from the previous year [2]. - The company expects a revenue growth of over 40% year-on-year for 2025, with an increasing proportion of revenue coming from overseas markets [2][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 190 million CNY, marking a 180.13% year-on-year increase, but ended Q4 with losses [3][11]. Investment and R&D - From 2021 to 2024, Kunlun Wanwei's R&D expenditures increased from 628 million CNY to 1.598 billion CNY, with a total of 1.211 billion CNY spent in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - Sales expenses also rose significantly, reaching 2.891 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily for global promotion of AI applications [4]. Market Strategy - The company has opted for a differentiated competition strategy, focusing on vertical markets and AI application ecosystems rather than engaging in direct competition with leading firms in the general AI model space [5][6]. - Kunlun Wanwei has developed various AI models and applications, including the Skywork series and Mureka, which have shown significant advancements and commercial viability [6][7]. Growth Areas - The short drama segment has emerged as an unexpected growth point, with platforms like DramaWave and FreeReels achieving substantial user engagement and revenue growth [8]. - The company anticipates that its short drama business will generate 1.68 billion CNY in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 900% year-on-year increase [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that 2026 will be a pivotal year for Kunlun Wanwei, with expectations of narrowing losses and potential profitability by 2027 [11]. - The company's total market value is currently estimated at 68.8 billion CNY, with a projected target market value of 93.2 billion CNY based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights Kunlun Wanwei's strategic shift towards overseas markets and application ecosystem development in AI, despite ongoing financial losses. The company aims to leverage cutting-edge AI technology to create scalable products and cash flow, focusing on long-term market positioning rather than short-term profitability [1][12]. Financial Performance - For 2025, Kunlun Wanwei forecasts a net profit loss of CNY 13.5 billion to CNY 19.5 billion, continuing the trend of losses from the previous year [1]. - The company expects a revenue increase of over 40% year-on-year for 2025, with a growing share of overseas income [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a quarterly profit of CNY 1.9 billion, a 180.13% increase year-on-year, but ended Q4 with losses estimated between CNY -6.85 billion and CNY -12.85 billion [3]. Investment and R&D - Kunlun Wanwei's R&D expenditures have increased significantly from CNY 6.28 billion in 2021 to CNY 15.98 billion in 2024, with CNY 12.11 billion spent in the first three quarters of 2025, focusing on AGI and AIGC [4]. - Sales expenses also rose, reaching CNY 28.91 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily for global promotion of AI applications [4]. Competitive Strategy - The company has opted for a differentiated competition strategy, avoiding direct confrontation with major players in the general AI model space and instead focusing on vertical markets and AI application ecosystems [6]. - Kunlun Wanwei has developed various AI models and applications, including the Skywork series and the Skywork Super Agents, which aim to enhance productivity across multiple scenarios [6][7]. Market Expansion - The company has made significant strides in the AI music sector with Mureka, achieving a positive gross profit for the first time and generating an annual revenue of approximately USD 12 million [7]. - In the AI social domain, the Linky platform has improved its interactive capabilities, while the StarMaker platform integrates AI for music and video creation [7]. - The short drama segment has emerged as a surprising growth area, with platforms like DramaWave and FreeReels achieving substantial user engagement and revenue growth [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Kunlun Wanwei's short drama business will generate CNY 16.8 billion in revenue for 2025, marking a 900% increase, and will continue to accelerate growth into 2026 and 2027 [9]. - The company is expected to transition from an investment phase to a revenue-generating phase by 2026, with projections indicating a narrowing of losses to CNY 0.94 billion and a potential profit of CNY 4.38 billion by 2027 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company Kunlun Wanwei is focusing on overseas market expansion and application ecosystem development rather than competing directly with major players in the AI field, aiming for long-term market positioning and ecological advantages despite short-term losses [3][10][22]. Financial Performance - For 2025, Kunlun Wanwei forecasts a net profit loss of between 1.35 billion to 1.95 billion yuan, continuing the trend of losses from the previous year [3][15]. - The company expects a revenue increase of over 40% year-on-year for 2025, with a growing proportion of revenue coming from overseas markets [3][15]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180.13%, but ended Q4 with losses [4][16]. Investment Strategy - The company has adopted a "computing power - large model - application" strategy, significantly increasing its market promotion and R&D investments, which are essential for its survival in a competitive landscape [5][16]. - R&D expenditures from 2021 to 2024 were 628 million, 736 million, 1 billion, and 1.598 billion yuan respectively, with 2025's first three quarters seeing R&D spending of 1.211 billion yuan [17]. - Sales expenses from 2021 to 2024 were 1.473 billion, 1.566 billion, 1.62 billion, and 2.304 billion yuan, with 2025's first three quarters reaching 2.891 billion yuan [17]. Competitive Positioning - Kunlun Wanwei has chosen a differentiated competition strategy, focusing on vertical markets and AI application ecosystems rather than competing in the general large model arena [6][18]. - The company has developed various AI models and applications, including the Skywork series and the Skywork Super Agents, which serve multiple scenarios such as office productivity and multimedia content creation [19][20]. Market Expansion - The company has seen unexpected growth in its short drama products, with platforms like DramaWave and FreeReels achieving significant user engagement and revenue growth [21]. - Predictions indicate that the short drama business could generate 1.68 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, marking a 900% increase year-on-year [21]. Future Outlook - The company views the current investment phase in AI as a unique opportunity, with expectations of transitioning from losses to profitability by 2027 [11][23]. - The strategy emphasizes not just leading in general models but establishing advantages in specific fields and exploring global market opportunities [10][22].

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Wanwei is strategically shifting its focus from competing directly with major players in the AI field to building a differentiated competitive advantage in vertical markets and overseas expansion, aiming for long-term market positioning and ecological advantages rather than short-term profitability [2][9]. Financial Performance - For 2025, Kunlun Wanwei forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders between 1.35 billion to 1.95 billion yuan, continuing the previous year's loss trend [2][3]. - The company expects a revenue increase of over 40% year-on-year for 2025, with a growing share of overseas revenue [2]. - The median loss forecast for 2025 is similar to the previous year's loss of 1.595 billion yuan [3]. Research and Development - Kunlun Wanwei's R&D expenditures from 2021 to 2024 were 628 million, 736 million, 1 billion, and 1.598 billion yuan respectively, with 2025's first three quarters seeing R&D spending of 1.211 billion yuan, primarily focused on AGI and AIGC [3][4]. Marketing and Sales - Sales expenses from 2021 to 2024 were 1.473 billion, 1.566 billion, 1.62 billion, and 2.304 billion yuan, with 2025's first three quarters reaching 2.891 billion yuan, aimed at global promotion of AI applications [4]. Product Development and Innovation - Kunlun Wanwei has developed various AI models and applications, including the Skywork series and the Skywork Super Agents, which focus on enhancing productivity and multi-modal content creation [5][6]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI music with Mureka, achieving a positive gross profit for the first time and generating an annual revenue of approximately 12 million dollars [6][7]. Market Positioning - The company has positioned itself as an "AI mid-tier" player, focusing on niche markets and avoiding direct competition with larger firms, which allows it to find survival space and opportunities for growth [3][9]. - The short drama segment has emerged as an unexpected growth point, with revenue expected to reach 1.68 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 900% year-on-year increase [8]. Future Outlook - Kunlun Wanwei anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for transitioning from an investment phase to a revenue realization phase, with projections indicating a narrowing of losses and potential profitability by 2027 [10]. - The company's total market capitalization as of February 6 was 68.8 billion yuan, with a target market value estimated at 93.2 billion yuan based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation [11].

昆仑万维(300418) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 游戏Ⅱ A 股稀缺大模型及出海应用龙头，从纯投入期到兑现期 ——昆仑万维深度报告 投资要点 一句话逻辑 公司已完成"算力—模型—AI 应用"AI 全产业链布局，短剧业务 25 年年化流水 突破 2.4 亿美元验证商业化能力，DramaWave 短剧平台等 MRR 增长曲线陡峭， 天工超级智能体开启 AI 搜索、AI 音乐、AI 社交等生产力场景第二增长曲线，26 年将从投入期转向兑现期。 超预期逻辑 1）短剧出海商业化强度超预期：DramaWave 平台 8 月已跃居海外短剧收入榜第 三位，25 年 12 月环比增长 35.4%，位列收入榜第四。25 年 12 月下载量环比上涨 超 90%，成为 Top 15 中涨幅最高的产品。预计 25 年短剧收入同比增长 900%至 16.8 亿元，26-27 年持续加速增长，成为核心现金流引擎。 2）AI 智能体商业化落地或提前突破：公司先后发布并开源多款行业领先模型， 搭建全链路 AI 应用矩阵，以天工超级智能体为核心，联动 AI Developer、AI 视 频、A ...

昆仑万维(300418) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 1）短剧出海商业化强度超预期：DramaWave 平台 8 月已跃居海外短剧收入榜第 三位，25 年 12 月环比增长 35.4%，位列收入榜第四。25 年 12 月下载量环比上涨 超 90%，成为 Top 15 中涨幅最高的产品。预计 25 年短剧收入同比增长 900%至 16.8 亿元，26-27 年持续加速增长，成为核心现金流引擎。 2）AI 智能体商业化落地或提前突破：公司先后发布并开源多款行业领先模型， 搭建全链路 AI 应用矩阵，以天工超级智能体为核心，联动 AI Developer、AI 视 频、AI 音乐、AI 游戏与 AI 社交产品，全面覆盖 C 端与 B 端需求，平台影响力 与商业化能力显著提升。25H1 AI 软件技术收入已达 6500 万元，验证商业化雏 形，26 年有望实现规模化收入。 3）世界模型技术卡位领先全球：公司 8 月开源 Matrix 3D 模型，Matrix-Game 2.0 则为交互式世界模型的升级版本，是业内首个在通用场景下实现实时长序列交互 生成的开源方案，可复用于游戏、影视、具身智能，为未来增 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of AI Agent technology, emphasizing the need for a native desktop AI tool that integrates seamlessly into users' workflows, particularly for Windows users [2][11] - Skywork's desktop version aims to fill a significant market gap by providing a faster, cost-effective, and superior image and video processing tool for Windows users [2][13] Group 1: Skywork's Positioning and Strategy - Skywork adopts an open model strategy, integrating multiple AI models including Claude Opus 4.5, Claude Sonnet 4.5, and Google’s Gemini 3 Pro, allowing users flexibility in task execution [4] - The intelligent scheduling feature, Auto mode, selects the most suitable AI model based on task requirements, enhancing efficiency and success rates [4][5] Group 2: Practical Applications and Capabilities - Skywork can organize chaotic folders by automatically categorizing images into subfolders based on their types, significantly reducing manual sorting time [6] - It can analyze large datasets, such as a health data spreadsheet with over 6,600 rows and 40 columns, performing data cleaning and generating insightful visualizations and actionable health recommendations [7] - The tool simplifies the extraction of images from multiple Word documents, turning a time-consuming task into a quick process [8] - Skywork automates the reconciliation of financial statements by reading both CSV files and image formats, producing a comprehensive Excel report that highlights matched and unmatched items [9] Group 3: Security and Pricing - Skywork ensures data security by operating in a local virtual machine environment, preventing sensitive data from being uploaded to the cloud, which is crucial for industries like finance and law [10] - The pricing model is competitive, with a basic version at $19.99/month and an enhanced version at $49.99/month, aiming to democratize access to AI tools [10] Group 4: Industry Implications - The shift towards desktop AI agents represents a transformation in human-computer interaction, moving from passive command-response to proactive understanding of user intent [12] - The competition in the AI industry is shifting from model capabilities to control over the execution environment, highlighting the importance of integrated platforms [12][13] - Skywork's approach positions it as a pioneer in delivering AI capabilities directly to a vast user base, addressing challenges related to stability, security, and user trust [13]

Core Viewpoint - Kunlun Wanwei is expected to incur losses in 2025 due to continued heavy investments in AI large models, market promotion, and R&D [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between -1.35 billion and -1.95 billion, compared to -1.59479 billion in the same period last year [2][8] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between -1.448 billion and -2.048 billion, compared to -1.64338 billion in the same period last year [2][8] - Revenue is expected to grow by over 40% year-on-year, with an increasing proportion of overseas revenue [8] Business Developments - The company has made significant breakthroughs in AI large models, including the release of various models such as Skywork-Reward-V2 and Matrix-3D, while continuously iterating existing models [3][4] - The TianGong Super Intelligent Agent has integrated AI Agent architecture and Deep Research technology, focusing on enhancing office efficiency and multi-modal creation [4] - The AI music product Mureka has reached version V8, improving in multiple dimensions, and aims to provide a seamless music creation experience for users [5] Short Video Platform Growth - The short video business has become a significant growth driver, with the DramaWave platform achieving over 28 million monthly active users globally [6] - The FreeReels application has surpassed 40 million monthly active users, leveraging a "free to watch" strategy to gain market share in emerging markets [6] Technological Innovations - The Opera platform has launched the AI Agent browser Opera Neon, which enhances user interaction by automating web browsing and task execution [7] - The StarMaker platform has integrated AI technology for song and video creation, significantly boosting user growth [7] - The company plans to deepen the industrialization of AI technology and strengthen its global market presence to enhance its core competitiveness [7]