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Will Data Center AI Chip Demand Keep Aiding Micron's Sales Growth?
ZACKS· 2025-11-11 14:21
Core Insights - Micron Technology, Inc. achieved record revenues of $37.38 billion in fiscal 2025, primarily driven by strong demand in its data center business, particularly for AI infrastructure [1][10] - The company's data center products generated $20.75 billion in revenues, accounting for 56% of total sales [1] Data Center Business Performance - Micron's data center end-market consists of two units: Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) and Core Data Business Unit (CDBU) [2] - CMBU revenues surged 257% year over year to $13.52 billion, while CDBU sales increased 45% to $7.23 billion, driven by high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), high-capacity DRAM, and solid-state drives [2] Product Development and Technology - Micron's latest HBM3E and LPDDR5 server memory are gaining traction, with major customer NVIDIA utilizing these products for its H200 Tensor Core GPUs [3] - The company is ramping up production of its 1-gamma DRAM and G9 NAND technologies, enhancing speed and efficiency while improving cost structure [3] Future Growth Expectations - Micron anticipates that AI servers and traditional data centers will continue to be significant growth drivers in fiscal 2026, supported by tight DRAM supply and increasing AI adoption [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is projected at $53.27 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 42.5% [4] Competitive Landscape - While there are no direct U.S. stock exchange-listed competitors, Intel Corporation and Broadcom Inc. play crucial roles in the HBM supply chain and AI hardware ecosystem [5] - Intel is expanding its AI memory chip portfolio, integrating HBM into its high-performance accelerators, while Broadcom is developing high-performance custom AI accelerators for major companies [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Micron's shares have surged approximately 201% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Integrated Systems industry's gain of 83.9% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.19, significantly lower than the industry's average of 25.34 [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Micron's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings implies a year-over-year increase of 95.7% and 14.5%, respectively, with upward revisions in the past 60 days [15]
Micron's NAND Sales Hit $8.5B in FY25: Can the Momentum Continue?
ZACKS· 2025-10-03 14:06
Core Insights - Micron Technology reported record NAND revenues of $8.5 billion in fiscal 2025, representing an 18% year-over-year increase [1] - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, NAND sales reached $2.3 billion, accounting for approximately 20% of total revenues, with a 5% growth compared to the previous quarter [1][9] - The company anticipates fiscal 2026 NAND revenues to be $10.42 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 22.5%, with total revenues projected to grow 43.4% to $53.61 billion [4][9] NAND Product Development - Micron is focusing on its new G9 NAND to enhance performance, ramping up production of both TLC and QLC NAND, with G9 QLC NAND now qualified for enterprise storage [2] - The addition of PCIe Gen6 SSDs aims to support high-performance data center workloads, including AI inference and large-scale storage [2] Market Demand and Trends - Demand in the data center storage market is being driven by AI applications such as vector database indexing and key-value cache tiering [3] - A shortage of hard disk drives (HDDs) is expected to further boost NAND demand [3] Competitive Landscape - Micron competes with Western Digital Corporation and Seagate Technology Holdings in the data storage market, with Western Digital having a broader portfolio that includes both traditional HDDs and NAND-based SSDs [5] - Seagate is a significant player in the HDD market, particularly for high-capacity storage solutions, and is expanding its presence in the SSD market [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - Micron's shares have increased by approximately 119.2% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Integrated Systems industry's growth of 50.2% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 3.76, slightly below the industry average of 4.04 [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Micron's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 100% and 12%, respectively, with upward revisions in the past 30 days [14]
Micron Technology(MU) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-09-23 21:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Micron achieved record revenue of $37.4 billion in fiscal 2025, a nearly 50% increase year-over-year, with gross margins expanding by 17 percentage points to 41% [4][19] - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 22% sequentially and 46% year-over-year, with DRAM revenue reaching a record $9 billion, up 69% year-over-year [19][20] - EPS for fiscal 2025 reached $8.29, reflecting a 538% increase compared to the prior year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The combined revenue from HBM, high-capacity DIMMs, and LP server DRAM reached $10 billion, more than a five-fold increase compared to the prior fiscal year [5] - Cloud Memory Business Unit revenue was $4.5 billion, representing 40% of total company revenue, with gross margins of 59% [21] - Mobile Client Business Unit revenue was $3.8 billion, representing 33% of total company revenue, with gross margins of 36% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center business accounted for a record 56% of total company revenue, with gross margins of 52% [10] - The calendar 2025 total server units are expected to grow approximately 10%, up from prior expectations of mid-single-digit growth [9] - Smartphone unit shipment expectations remain unchanged at low single-digit percentage range in calendar 2025, with an increasing mix of AI-ready smartphones [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Micron is positioned to benefit significantly from AI-driven demand, with a focus on advanced technologies like HBM and 1-gamma DRAM [5][6] - The company plans to continue investing in its Japan production capability and is making progress on its Singapore HBM assembly and test facility [9][8] - Micron aims to leverage its leadership in advanced technologies to maximize ROI and enhance product mix and profitability [5][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in strong demand for DRAM and NAND, driven by data center growth and AI applications [10][50] - The company anticipates further DRAM supply tightness in the industry and continued strengthening in NAND market conditions [18] - Management expects fiscal Q1 revenue to be a record $12.5 billion, with gross margins projected at 51.5% [27] Other Important Information - Micron invested $13.8 billion in CapEx in fiscal 2025, with expectations for higher CapEx in fiscal 2026 [18] - The company received a CHIPS Act grant disbursement for its new high-volume manufacturing fab in Idaho, with the first wafer output expected in the second half of calendar 2027 [8] - Micron's inventory levels improved, with ending inventory for fiscal Q4 at $8.4 billion, down $372 million sequentially [24][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue split between DRAM and NAND - Micron expects a heavier DRAM mix than NAND in the first quarter, with a projected sequential gross margin increase of 580 basis points [31] Question: Update on HBM total addressable market (TAM) - Micron anticipates the HBM TAM to reach $100 billion by 2030, with HBM bit CAGR expected to outgrow overall DRAM CAGR [34] Question: Transition from HBM3E to HBM4 - HBM4 production is expected to ramp in line with customer demand, with first shipments anticipated in the second quarter of 2026 [40] Question: Gross margin outlook - Micron expects gross margins to improve sequentially, driven by tight DRAM supply and improving NAND business [42] Question: DRAM inventory levels and customer orders - Micron expects DRAM inventories to remain tight, with healthy customer inventory levels and increased lead times for orders [58]
Micron Technology(MU) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-09-23 21:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Micron Technology achieved record revenue of $37.4 billion in fiscal 2025, a nearly 50% increase year-over-year, with gross margins expanding by 17 percentage points to 41% [4][22] - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 22% sequentially and 46% year-over-year, marking a quarterly record [22] - Earnings per share (EPS) reached $8.29, reflecting a 538% increase compared to the prior year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - DRAM revenue in fiscal Q4 was a record $9 billion, up 69% year-over-year, representing 79% of total revenue [22] - NAND revenue for fiscal Q4 was $2.3 billion, down 5% year-over-year but up 5% sequentially [23] - The Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) generated $4.5 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue, with gross margins of 59% [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center business reached a record 56% of total company revenue in fiscal 2025, with gross margins of 52% [11] - The total server units in the data center market are expected to grow approximately 10% in calendar 2025, up from previous expectations of mid-single-digit growth [10] - Smartphone unit shipment expectations remain unchanged at low single-digit percentage growth in calendar 2025, with an increasing mix of AI-ready smartphones [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Micron is positioned to benefit significantly from AI-driven demand, with a focus on advanced technologies such as HBM, 1-gamma DRAM, and G9 NAND [5][10] - The company plans to continue investing in its production capabilities in Japan and Singapore to meet future memory technology requirements [9][10] - Micron aims to leverage its leadership in advanced technologies to maximize ROI and enhance its product portfolio [5][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for DRAM and NAND products, driven by AI applications and traditional server growth [35][54] - The company anticipates continued tightness in the DRAM supply environment into calendar 2026, contributing to favorable pricing conditions [20][21] - Management highlighted the importance of AI in driving productivity and competitive positioning, with expectations of significant investments in memory related to AI [7][31] Other Important Information - Micron invested $13.8 billion in capital expenditures in fiscal 2025, with expectations for higher spending in fiscal 2026 [21] - The company received a CHIPS Act grant disbursement for its new manufacturing fab in Idaho, with the first wafer output expected in the second half of calendar 2027 [9] - Micron's 1-gamma DRAM node achieved mature yields 50% faster than the previous generation, demonstrating its technological leadership [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue split between DRAM and NAND - Micron expects a heavier DRAM mix in the first quarter, with a projected sequential gross margin increase of 580 basis points driven by pricing and strong execution [34][36] Question: Update on HBM total addressable market (TAM) - Management reiterated the expectation for HBM TAM to reach $100 billion by 2030, with HBM bit CAGR expected to outpace overall DRAM CAGR [38][39] Question: Transition from HBM3E to HBM4 - HBM4 production is set to ramp in line with customer demand, with expectations for increased market share in 2026 [44][45] Question: Gross margin outlook - Management anticipates sequential gross margin improvement in the first half of fiscal 2026, supported by tight DRAM supply and favorable pricing [46][48] Question: DRAM demand sustainability - Strong demand for AI applications is broadening the demand vector for DRAM across various markets, including data centers and smartphones [53][54] Question: CapEx breakdown for fiscal 2026 - Micron's fiscal 2026 CapEx will primarily focus on DRAM, with ongoing investments in construction and facilities [57][59]
Micron Technology(MU) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-09-23 21:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Micron Technology achieved record revenue of $37.4 billion in fiscal 2025, a nearly 50% increase year-over-year, with gross margins expanding by 17 percentage points to 41% [4][20] - Fiscal Q4 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 22% sequentially and 46% year-over-year, marking a quarterly record [20] - Earnings per share (EPS) reached $8.29, reflecting a 538% increase compared to the prior year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - DRAM revenue in fiscal Q4 was a record $9 billion, up 69% year-over-year, representing 79% of total revenue [20] - NAND revenue for fiscal Q4 was $2.3 billion, down 5% year-over-year but up 5% sequentially [21] - The Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) generated $4.5 billion, accounting for 40% of total revenue, with gross margins of 59% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center business reached a record 56% of total company revenue in fiscal 2025, with gross margins of 52% [10] - The total server units in calendar 2025 are expected to grow approximately 10%, up from previous mid-single-digit growth expectations [9] - Smartphone unit shipment expectations remain unchanged at low single-digit percentage growth in calendar 2025, with an increasing mix of AI-ready smartphones [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Micron is positioned to benefit significantly from AI-driven demand, with a focus on advanced technologies like HBM and 1-gamma DRAM [5][29] - The company plans to continue investing in its manufacturing capabilities, including a new high-volume fab in Idaho and expansion in Japan and Singapore [8][9] - Micron aims to leverage its leadership in advanced technologies to maximize ROI and enhance product mix and profitability [5][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in strong demand across various end markets, including data centers, traditional servers, and AI applications [10][49] - The company anticipates continued tightness in DRAM supply and improving conditions in the NAND market [18][19] - Fiscal Q1 guidance reflects expectations for record revenue and EPS, with gross margins projected to strengthen [28] Other Important Information - Micron invested $13.8 billion in capital expenditures in fiscal 2025, with expectations for higher spending in fiscal 2026 [19] - The company achieved a significant increase in productivity through AI applications, with improvements in design and manufacturing processes [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on revenue split between DRAM and NAND - Management indicated that the first quarter will have a heavier DRAM mix than NAND, with expectations for a 580 basis points sequential margin expansion driven by pricing and strong execution [32] Question: Update on HBM total addressable market (TAM) - Management reiterated the expectation for HBM TAM to reach $100 billion by 2030, with HBM bit CAGR expected to outgrow DRAM CAGR [36] Question: Transition from HBM3E to HBM4 - HBM4 production is expected to ramp in line with customer demand, with first shipments anticipated in the second quarter of 2026 [40] Question: DRAM demand sustainability - Management noted strong demand across AI applications, traditional servers, and smartphones, contributing to a healthy demand-supply environment [49] Question: CapEx breakdown for fiscal 2026 - Management stated that the majority of fiscal 2026 CapEx will be for DRAM-related construction and equipment, with a net CapEx guidance of around $18 billion [51]
Micron Technology(MU) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-09-23 20:30
Financial Performance - Micron's fiscal year 2025 revenue grew nearly 50% to a record $37.4 billion[8] - Gross margins expanded by 17 percentage points to 41% in fiscal year 2025[8] - Q4 2025 revenue was $11.3 billion, up 22% Q/Q and 46% Y/Y[50, 51] - Fiscal year 2025 revenue was $37.4 billion, up 49% Y/Y[52, 53] - Non-GAAP gross margin for FQ4 2025 was 45.7%[66] - Non-GAAP operating income for FQ4 2025 was $3.96 billion[66] - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for FQ4 2025 was $3.03[66] Data Center Business - Combined revenue from HBM, high-capacity DIMMs, and LP server DRAM reached $10 billion, a more than five-fold increase compared to the prior fiscal year[8] - Micron's data center business reached a record 56% of total company revenue in fiscal year 2025, with gross margins of 52%[24] - HBM revenue grew to nearly $2 billion in fiscal Q4, implying an annualized run rate of nearly $8 billion[24] Market Outlook - The industry expects calendar 2025 DRAM bit demand growth to be in the high-teens percentage range[45] - The industry expects calendar 2025 NAND bit demand growth to be in the low-to mid-teens percentage range[45] Guidance - Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue is guided at $12.50 billion ± $300 million[77] - Fiscal Q1 2026 gross margin is guided at 51.5% ± 1.0%[77] - Fiscal Q1 2026 diluted earnings per share are guided at $3.75 ± $0.15[77]
Micron Technology(MU) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-06-25 21:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Micron reported record revenue of $9.3 billion in fiscal Q3, up 15% sequentially and 37% year over year, exceeding guidance [29] - DRAM revenue reached $7.1 billion, up 51% year over year, representing 76% of total revenue [29] - NAND revenue was $2.2 billion, up 4% year over year, representing 23% of total revenue [29] - Gross margin for fiscal Q3 was 39%, up 110 basis points sequentially and 250 basis points year over year [32] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.91, above guidance, with 22% sequential growth and over 200% year-over-year increase [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Compute and networking business unit revenue was $5.1 billion, up 11% sequentially, driven by nearly 50% sequential increase in HBM [30] - Storage business unit revenue was $1.5 billion, up 4% sequentially, primarily due to increased consumer-oriented revenue [31] - Mobile business unit revenue was $1.6 billion, up 45% sequentially, driven by reduced customer inventories and strong demand [31] - Embedded business unit revenue was $1.2 billion, up 20% sequentially, supported by growth in industrial and consumer embedded markets [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data center DRAM revenue reached a new record for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by strong growth and share gains [14] - The company expects the CY25 server market to grow in the mid-single digits percentage, largely driven by significant growth in AI servers [13] - The smartphone market is expected to grow in low single digits in calendar 2025, with increasing adoption of AI-enabled devices [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Micron completed a strategic reorganization around key market segments to capitalize on AI growth opportunities [7] - The company plans to invest approximately $200 billion in the U.S. over the next 20 years, including $150 billion in manufacturing and $50 billion in R&D [10] - Micron is focused on transitioning to new technology nodes, including one gamma DRAM, which offers significant improvements in performance and efficiency [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a robust demand environment, expecting revenue growth of 15% sequentially in fiscal Q4 [7] - The company anticipates industry DRAM bit demand growth in the high teens percentage range and NAND bit demand growth in the low double digits [23] - Management noted that customer inventory levels are healthy, with a constructive demand environment expected for the remainder of the calendar year [90] Other Important Information - Micron's operating cash flows were over $4.6 billion in fiscal Q3, with free cash flows of over $1.9 billion, the highest in over six years [33] - The company is on allocation for D4 products due to increasing shortages, with final shipments expected in two to three quarters [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: How do you see the HBM TAM scaling with the Accelerator TAM? - Management expects HBM revenue to grow from $18 billion in 2025 to approximately $35 billion, with significant growth in HBM demand [41] Question: What is driving the upside in gross margins? - The increase in gross margins was driven by strong sequential volume growth and better-than-expected pricing [48] Question: What is the current status of HBM market share? - Micron is already at a run rate of over $6 billion for HBM and expects to achieve industry share for HBM earlier than previously anticipated [60] Question: What is the plan for NAND utilization moving into next year? - The company plans to manage NAND utilization based on market conditions, with leading-edge NAND fully utilized [68] Question: How is the qualification of HBM4 progressing? - HBM4 is on track for customer qualifications, with strong performance expected in power efficiency and overall capabilities [96]