大为股份在回答投资者提问时表示，公司全资子公司大为创芯主要产品覆盖DDR3、DDR4、LPDDR4X 及DDR5等DRAM产品，以及eMMC、BGA NAND Flash等Nand Flash产品，广泛应用于多个领域。公司 正积极推进LPDDR5认证与试产工作，开展高性能存储芯片产品及解决方案研发，为后续业务发展奠定 基础。具体经营情况请关注公司定期报告和临时公告。 ...

Counterpoint Research此前预测，长鑫存储2025年DRAM出货量将同比增长50%，在整体DRAM市 场的出货份额预计将从第一季度的6%提升至第四季度的8%，其中DDR5和LPDDR5产品占比将分别增 至7%和9%，公司有望成为全球增长最快的存储芯片厂商。 财务数据显示，2022年至2024年，长鑫科技营收分别为82.87亿元、90.87亿元及241.78亿元。而 2025年前三季度，营收同比增长近100%至320.84亿元。不过，长鑫科技仍在亏损中，据招股书披露， 公司至2025年6月30日累计未弥补亏损达408.57亿元。长鑫科技解释称，其未盈利原因主要来源于 DRAM行业规模导向显著，公司持续提升产能规模，厂房及产线建设等需要高额固定资产投入，而新增 产能带来的规模效应尚未完全显现。同时，DRAM行业具有极高技术门槛，公司研发投入增加。 历时两个多月，国内"内存一哥"长鑫科技集团股份有限公司（简称"长鑫科技"）冲刺科创板取得关 键进展。 12月30日，上交所官网显示，长鑫科技的科创板IPO申请已获受理。根据招股说明书（申报稿）， 公司拟募集资金295亿元。从募资规模来看，长鑫科技IPO ...

2022年~2024年及2025年上半年，长鑫科技营收82.87亿元、90.87亿元、241.78亿元、154.38亿元。 12月30日晚间，上交所官网显示，长鑫科技科创板IPO申请获受理，拟首发募资295亿元。长鑫科技同日披露了招股书。 目前两类主要的存储芯片DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）和NAND Flash（NAND 闪存）都由海外厂商占据大部分市场。 作为国内最大的DRAM存储芯片厂商，长鑫科技的业绩和市占率情况备受外界关注，此次招股书披露了一些数据。 营收持续增长的同时，公司仍在亏损。2022年~2024年及2025年上半年，长鑫科技分别亏损83.28亿元、163.4亿元、71.45 亿元、23.32亿元，2022年~2024年亏损超300亿元。截至今年6月底，公司累计亏损408.57亿元。今年前9个月，长鑫科技 营收则为320.84亿元，同比增长97.79%，亏损52.8亿元。 | 项目 | 2025年6月30日/ | 2024 年12月 31 日/ | 2023 年 12月 31 日/ | 2022 年 12月 31 日/ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

按2025年第二季度DRAM销售额计算，长鑫科技在全球DRAM市场中的份额为3.97%。 12月30日晚间，上交所官网显示，长鑫科技科创板IPO申请获受理，拟首发募资295亿元。长鑫科技同日披露了招股书。 长鑫科技称，2022年及2023年是行业下行周期，DRAM销售价格大幅下滑，在这轮周期内，业内企业出现普遍性亏损。 长鑫科技主要的DRAM产品在2023年、2024年的销售单价变动幅度分别为-43.54%和55.08%。 今年存储需求在AI的带动下明显增长，一些存储原厂为将产能给AI数据中心常用的先进制程产品，决定将停产DDR4产 品，进而影响消费类电子存储产品的供应，促成多类存储产品缺货涨价。长鑫科技表示，今年第三季度，公司营收同比 增长148.8%，综合毛利率有所上升，是受到了DRAM产品市场价格上涨、公司产销规模提升等的带动。 随着这种周期变动持续，长鑫科技未来的盈利状况也受到影响。 目前两类主要的存储芯片DRAM（动态随机存取存储器）和NAND Flash（NAND 闪存）都由海外厂商占据大部分市场。 作为国内最大的DRAM存储芯片厂商，长鑫科技的业绩和市占率情况备受外界关注，此次招股书披露了一些数 ...

东方证券研报指出，兆易创新持续受益存储涨价，推进端侧AI布局。在价格方面，兆易创新预计未来2 年左右利基型DRAM市场仍将处于供应相对紧张的环境，价格有望在明年维持相对较好的水平。在产品 方面，兆易创新持续推动DRAM新产品布局，LPDDR4预计在26年上半年推出产品，在下半年实现量 产，并着手规划LPDDR5小容量产品的研发；基于新产线的DDR4产品预计在26年下半年推出样品。在 产能方面，兆易创新与核心供应商积极协商，争取得到产能和价格上的支持，有望充分受益存储涨价周 期。公司推进端侧AI领域布局，定制化存储解决方案进展顺利。NORFlash受益端侧AI需求，公司继续 推动市场份额提升。根据可比公司26年平均65倍PE估值，给予257.40元目标价，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected trend of rising smartphone prices, which contradicts Moore's Law that suggests prices should decrease as technology improves. This price increase is attributed to significant cost hikes in memory components, driven by supply shortages and increased demand from AI servers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increases in Smartphones - Xiaomi's new model, the Xiaomi 17 Ultra, has a starting price of 6,999 yuan, which is an increase of 500 yuan from the previous model. The price hike is attributed to substantial increases in the costs of key components such as processors, cameras, and memory [2]. - Other major smartphone manufacturers like OPPO and vivo have also raised prices for their flagship models compared to previous generations, indicating a broader trend in the industry [2]. Group 2: Memory Supply Shortages - The supply of LPDDR4X memory has seen a shortage of approximately 15%-20% due to a shift in production lines, particularly affecting low-capacity products [4]. - The demand for LPDDR5X memory has surpassed 50% penetration in global smartphones, while LPDDR4X is primarily used in mid-range devices. The tightening supply of LPDDR4X is expected to drive prices up and accelerate the transition to LPDDR5X in the smartphone industry [4]. Group 3: Impact of AI on Memory Supply - AI servers are increasingly consuming memory production capacity that was previously allocated to smartphones and computers, leading to supply constraints in the non-server market [6][7]. - OpenAI's partnership with Samsung and SK Hynix for AI data centers is expected to significantly increase memory demand, with projections of up to 900,000 DRAM wafers needed monthly [7]. Group 4: Domestic Manufacturers' Opportunities - The shift of major manufacturers towards high-margin AI storage has created opportunities for domestic DRAM manufacturers, with the storage index rising over 70% this year [9][11]. - Domestic firms are positioned to fill the supply gap in standard DDR5/RDDR5, with expectations of a 15%-20% supply shortfall by 2026. They can leverage lower technical barriers and cost advantages to provide competitive solutions in the PC and server markets [11][12].

兆易创新 603986.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 2.47、3.96、5.00 元（原 25-26 年预测为 2.38、3.04 元），主要调整了营业收入与费用率。根据可比公司 26 年平均 65 倍 PE 估值，给予 257.40 元目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 需求复苏不及预期、价格上涨不及预期、新产品进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,761 | 7,356 | 9,452 | 12,461 | 15,871 | | 同比增长 (%) | -29.1% | 27.7% | 28.5% | 31.8% | 27.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 120 | 1,117 | 1,678 | 2,751 | 3,585 | | 同比增长 (%) | -94.6% | 832.8% | 50.2% | 63.9% | 3 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the critical role of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) in supporting AI technologies, highlighting its evolution from a niche technology to a necessity for AI performance [1][2][15] - A comprehensive roadmap for HBM development from HBM4 to HBM8 is outlined, indicating significant advancements in bandwidth, capacity, and efficiency over the next decade [15][80] Understanding HBM - HBM is designed to address the limitations of traditional memory types, such as DDR5, which struggle to meet the high data transfer demands of AI applications [4][7] - The architecture of HBM utilizes a 3D stacking method, significantly improving data transfer efficiency compared to traditional flat layouts [7][8] HBM Advantages - HBM offers three main advantages: superior bandwidth, reduced power consumption, and compact size, making it essential for AI applications [11][12][14] - For instance, training a model like GPT-3 takes 20 days with DDR5 but only 5 days with HBM3, showcasing the drastic difference in performance [12] HBM Generational Upgrades - HBM4, expected in 2026, will introduce customizable base dies to enhance memory performance and capacity, addressing mid-range AI server needs [17][21] - HBM5, anticipated in 2029, will incorporate near-memory computing capabilities, allowing memory to perform calculations, thus reducing GPU wait times [27][28] - HBM6, projected for 2032, will focus on high throughput for real-time AI applications, with significant improvements in bandwidth and capacity [32][35] - HBM7, set for 2035, will integrate high-bandwidth flash memory to balance high-speed access with large storage needs, particularly for multimodal AI systems [41][44] - HBM8, expected in 2038, will feature full 3D integration, allowing seamless interaction between memory and GPU, crucial for advanced AI applications [49][54] Industry Landscape - The global HBM market is dominated by three major players: SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, which collectively control over 90% of the market share [81][84] - The demand for HBM is projected to grow significantly, with the market expected to reach $98 billion by 2030, driven by the increasing need for high-performance computing in AI [80] Future Challenges - The HBM industry faces challenges related to cost, thermal management, and ecosystem development, which must be addressed to facilitate widespread adoption [86] - Strategies for overcoming these challenges include improving yield rates, expanding production capacity, and innovating cost-reduction technologies [86]

在AI推动存储需求爆发的背景下，市场预期美光一财季业绩大幅增长，DRAM与NAND供需失衡强化定价权。多家投行上调目标价，但公司股价在财报前出现回调，期权显示波动加 剧。美光退出消费业务、聚焦高利润数据中心，被视为中长期增长关键。 硬·AI 作者 | 张雅绮 编辑 | 硬 AI 美光科技将于周三美股盘后公布第一财季业绩，在人工智能浪潮推动存储芯片需求激增的背景下，华尔街普遍预期其营收与利润将录得爆发式增长。尽管该股今 年以来已上涨近三倍， 但近期在财报发布前夕出现高位回撤，市场正密切关注这份成绩单能否成为股价重拾升势的关键催化剂。 受此乐观预期推动，多家投行在财报前上调了美光的目标价。Needham分析师Quinn Bolton和Wedbush分析师Matt Bryson均将目标价上调至300美元，理由是 数据中心建设对高带宽内存（HBM）等高价值产品的需求持续强劲。根据Visible Alpha编制的市场共识，分析师预计美光第一财季营收将同比增长约48%至创纪 录的129.3亿美元，调整后每股收益（EPS）预计为3.96美元，较去年同期实现翻倍增长。 尽管基本面强劲，但市场情绪近期趋于谨慎。美光股价在上周触 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth expectations for Micron Technology's Q1 performance driven by AI-induced demand for storage chips, with a focus on the supply-demand imbalance enhancing pricing power [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Performance - Micron is expected to report explosive revenue and profit growth in Q1, with analysts predicting a year-over-year revenue increase of approximately 48% to a record $12.93 billion and an adjusted EPS of $3.96, doubling from the previous year [4]. - Despite a nearly threefold increase in stock price this year, Micron's shares have recently retreated from a high of approximately $264.75 to around $232, indicating cautious market sentiment ahead of the earnings report [4]. - The options market indicates that traders expect a potential stock price volatility of up to 9% post-earnings, suggesting a possible breakout above $258 or a pullback to around $217 [4]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - Analysts believe that Micron is benefiting from rising storage chip prices and supply constraints, with demand expected to exceed supply throughout 2026 [6]. - The demand from hyperscale cloud service providers and increased capital expenditures in the cloud sector are driving the consumption of Micron's high-value products, which supports the company's average selling price (ASP) and gross margin [6][8]. Group 3: Strategic Shift - Micron is undergoing a strategic shift by exiting its Crucial consumer business to focus on high-margin enterprise and commercial sectors, a decision driven by the surge in demand for storage and memory due to AI [8]. - This strategic move is seen as a commitment to high-value end markets, with management emphasizing the importance of converting existing capacity into sellable output for high-profit cloud and data center products [8]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Outlook - Despite significant stock price gains, analysts consider Micron's valuation to be reasonable, with a forward P/E ratio around 12, similar to the beginning of the year [9]. - Analysts have high expectations for Micron's upcoming guidance, with projected Q2 revenue of $14.33 billion, a 78% year-over-year increase, and an EPS of $4.78, reflecting a 206% growth [9][10].