早上关于富联的小作文传的沸沸扬扬了，各种各样的都有。 首 先是下面 这个： 当然也有针对上面这个辟谣的小作文： 这件事的来龙去脉 这个事件的源头是一位分析师在纬创第三季度财报电话会议上表示，从明年的 Vera Rubin 平台开 始， 英伟达可能会直接向合作伙伴供应 Level-10 系统 ，以规范机架设计并显著缩短产品上市时间。 所以第一个图上面说的L6-L12拿回去自己做，肯定是错误的，目前所有的新闻都是说可能会做到 L10，目前英伟达只做到了L6。 关于L0-L12的定义如下： 1. NV将切入L10 (假) 标准化的L10是产业趋势， #但NV不会切入OEM环节 ，会降低公司利润 率。 (NV在上个业绩会中承诺，接下来的毛利率会维持在70以上) 2. 公司下修业绩(假) 我们预计公司四季度机柜交付环比增长30%以上。 展望一季度，虽然是传 统电子产业的淡季，但依旧会实现环比Q4的增长。 这里 还有个重点就是目前还只是有这个可能性，没有任何的官方确认 。 再有就是关于Q4的业绩指引下调，这个其实很不合理，10月29号才刚发布了三季报，这还不到一个 月，就要下调Q4的业绩指引？ 在工业富联其他业务没有明显 ...

"综上，第三财季数据中心总营收达到490亿美元是合理的，而游戏业务因第一财季基数过高将面临更大 增长压力。关于中国市场，可能存在部分计提减值后可重复使用的H20库存，但我们相信英伟达在获得 H20许可后已下达新的Hopper晶圆订单，且仍在开发Blackwell版本——我们认为美国政府很可能作为协 议的一部分，提高对华销售许可上限。" 该机构乐观预计，在与美国政府达成协议后，英伟达每季度可增收数十亿美元。该协议允许其销售H20 芯片，并以15%营收作为回报。 "我们预计第二财季(7月)营收约460亿美元(较上季度超预期约10亿美元)，第三财季(10月)剔除中国市场 的营收指引约为540-550亿美元，若包含中国市场则可达570亿美元。根据我们对生产供应链的调研，在 第二财季350亿美元计算业务收入基础上，第三财季该业务环比增幅可达20-25%——仅此一项就能带来 70-80亿美元的环比增长。我们对数据中心网络业务部分的判断稍显谨慎，因供应链存在800G产品短缺 问题，但仍认为第三财季60亿美元网络收入目标可实现(环比增长近10亿美元)。" 智通财经APP获悉，在英伟达(NVDA.US)财报发布前，瑞银将该股目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis predicts that Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is likely to exceed expectations, but the stock price has already priced in many positive factors, making significant upward movement more challenging [1][3]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position and Catalysts - Nvidia's market capitalization has reached $4.34 trillion, surpassing Japan's annual GDP, driven by expectations of a dominant position in the AI era [3]. - The company has established a strong competitive moat not only through GPU performance but also by building an ecosystem around chips, networks, memory, and supply chains [4]. - Future catalysts for Nvidia include significant growth in data center capital expenditures, with major cloud providers planning substantial investments [6][10]. Group 2: Cloud Providers' Capital Expenditures - Major cloud giants are expected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, with Amazon forecasting $100-120 billion for FY2025, Microsoft exceeding $900 billion, and Google raising its forecast to $85 billion [10][13]. - The combined capital expenditure of these four giants is projected to reach approximately $364 billion in 2025, a 57% year-over-year increase, accounting for 77% of global cloud capital expenditure growth [13]. Group 3: Demand for AI Infrastructure - The demand for Nvidia's GPUs is surging, with new cloud service providers and AI infrastructure companies purchasing them in large quantities [13][22]. - ODM server manufacturers are experiencing explosive demand, with Foxconn's AI server business growing by 60% year-over-year and expected to increase by 170% in Q3 [23][25]. - Global AI server shipments are projected to grow by 24.3% in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 27% from 2022 to 2027 [25]. Group 4: Software and Ecosystem Monetization - Nvidia's CUDA ecosystem, relied upon by over 6 million developers, is a core barrier to entry, allowing the company to convert hardware advantages into recurring software and cloud service revenues [27]. - The introduction of services like DGX Cloud is expected to generate significant annual revenue potential, showcasing the "compute as a service" model [28]. Group 5: Institutional Support and Market Sentiment - Major Wall Street institutions have raised Nvidia's 12-month price targets, with an average target of $194, indicating over 10% upside potential [31][32]. - Institutional holdings in Nvidia have increased, with a notable rise in the number of hedge funds holding significant positions, reflecting a bullish sentiment [38][39]. Group 6: Risks and Market Dynamics - The market's tolerance for risk is low, and any earnings report that merely meets expectations may not result in significant stock price increases [40]. - Concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments and potential market corrections are prevalent, with comparisons drawn to the dot-com bubble [41][43]. - Nvidia faces uncertainties in the Chinese market, with recent production halts for specific AI chips, but is reportedly developing a new chip to regain market share [44][47].