机器之心报道 编辑：泽南、杨文 网友：Deep Think 简直太疯狂了。 本周五，谷歌宣布向 Google AI Ultra 订阅用户推出 Deep Think 功能，并将全版本的 Gemini 2.5 Deep Think 模型（用于 IMO 竞赛）提 供给部分数学家使用。 新版本融合了一系列早期测试人员的反馈和研究突破，比今年 I/O 大会上首次发布的版本有了显著改进。 谷歌表示，2.5 Deep Think 是最近在今年国际数学奥林匹克（IMO）比赛中获得金牌的模型的变体。虽然该模型需要数小时才能推理 复杂的数学问题，但今天发布的版本速度更快，日常使用体验也更佳，根据内部评估，其在 2025 年 IMO 基准测试中仍能达到铜牌 级的性能。 Google DeepMind 表示，Gemini 2.5 Deep Think 对于正在解决难题的研究人员、科学家和学者很有用。它不仅能回答问题，还能运用 并行思维和强化学习技术进行头脑风暴。 谷歌展示了一名数学家 Michel van Garrel 使用深度思考能力证明猜想的经历。 现在， Google AI Ultra 订阅用户可以在 Gemini 应用中使用 ...

Core Insights - Google has launched Gemini 2.5 Deep Think, an optimized internal model variant that recently won the IMO 2025 gold medal [1] - The model's speed has improved, and its mathematical capabilities can reach the level of the IMO 2025 bronze medal [1] - Two versions of Deep Think have been released: a daily-use version for Ultra subscribers and a competition-level version for top mathematicians [1]

Core Insights - Alphabet is expected to report a 10.9% increase in revenue and 15% growth in earnings per share for the second quarter [1] - The company has faced challenges in stock performance compared to other major tech stocks, primarily due to concerns over AI chatbots impacting its search competitiveness [2] AI Developments - Google launched a new subscription tier, "Google AI Ultra," priced at $249.99 per month, providing access to advanced AI features [3] - The company announced the "AI Futures Fund" to invest in AI startups, offering financial support and resources [4] - Google has made significant talent acquisitions, including a $2.4 billion deal for Windsurf CEO Varun Mohan and other AI researchers [6] Cloud and Partnerships - OpenAI has added Google as a supplier for its ChatGPT service, utilizing Google's cloud infrastructure, which is a positive development for Google's cloud unit [5] - Google Cloud revenue for the quarter was reported at $13.11 billion [9] Operational Updates - Alphabet has implemented workforce reductions and buyouts across various divisions [7] - Waymo, Alphabet's self-driving car unit, achieved 100 million fully autonomous miles driven and is expanding into new markets, including plans for manual driving in New York [7][8] Financial Performance - Alphabet's total revenue for the quarter was $93.94 billion, with earnings per share at $2.18 [9] - YouTube advertising revenue was reported at $9.56 billion, and traffic acquisition costs were $14.18 billion [9] Challenges - The company experienced significant global outages in its cloud services, affecting major internet services [10]

Core Viewpoint - Google is expected to report strong revenue growth in Q2 2025, with projected revenue of $93.75 billion and diluted EPS of $2.25, driven by its services and cloud segments [1][12]. Group 1: Financial Projections - Analysts have adjusted EPS expectations for Google, with 17 upward revisions and 13 downward revisions in the past 90 days [1]. - For FY 2025, Google's total revenue is projected to reach $389.37 billion, with a significant increase in operating margin [3][11]. - Google Cloud revenue is expected to grow substantially, reaching $13 billion in Q2 2025, with an operating margin of 17.83% [6]. Group 2: Segment Performance - Google Search & Other is projected to generate $216.14 billion in FY 2025, while YouTube Ads are expected to reach $39.41 billion [3]. - The Google Cloud segment is experiencing increased demand, with a remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $92.4 billion, primarily related to cloud services [4]. - The Other Bets segment is projected to generate $1.96 billion in FY 2025, although it continues to operate at a loss [3]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Google is actively expanding its AI capabilities, recently acquiring Windsurf for $2.4 billion to enhance its software development lifecycle [7]. - The company is leveraging its AI models, such as Gemini, to enhance its advertising capabilities, which is a key growth driver [8]. - Waymo is expanding its autonomous taxi services into new regions, potentially outpacing competitors like Tesla [9][10]. Group 4: Valuation Insights - Based on a projected EV/EBITDA of 13.55x for FY 2026, Google's fair stock price is estimated at $185 per share, indicating potential for multiple expansion [13][14]. - Google's current valuation is lower than its peers, which average an EV/EBITDA of 22.90x, suggesting room for growth post-Q2 earnings [14][16].

Product Update - Gemini now allows users to transform photos into eight-second videos using Veo 3 [1] - The feature is currently experimental and available to Google AI Pro & Ultra subscribers [1] Availability - The feature is rolling out on Android, iOS, and Web platforms [1] - Global availability is planned [1] Use Case - The company suggests using the feature to animate artwork [1]

Core Insights - Google is facing significant challenges as generative AI reshapes the search landscape, similar to the challenges Yahoo faced during the dot-com era [3][4] - The company is adapting its strategies to maintain its market dominance, which includes evolving its ad models and introducing new AI-driven services [7][8] Market Position - Google holds an 80% market share in search as of today, down from 60% at the end of 1999, while Yahoo's share has dwindled to 3% [2] - OpenAI's ChatGPT commands an 80.1% share of the generative AI market, with Google at only 5.6% [3] Investor Sentiment - A recent debate among over 200 investors revealed mixed sentiments about Google's future, with concerns about share loss and monetization challenges [5][6] - Despite these concerns, there is a strong base of bullish sentiment regarding Google's potential to adapt and innovate [5] Competitive Landscape - The rise of AI competitors like ChatGPT and Meta AI, which has 1 billion monthly users, poses a threat to Google's traditional search model [10][12] - ChatGPT's web visits have increased significantly, now accounting for over 7% of Google traffic, up from 2% earlier in the year [10] Strategic Changes - Google is transitioning to a "multimodal intelligent assistant" and has introduced new bidding strategies for advertisers [8] - The company is also launching paid AI subscriptions and embedding AI features into its existing services [8] Revenue Implications - The shift towards AI responses may lead to lower revenues from high-value commercial queries, with "zero-click searches" rising to 27.2% of queries in the U.S. [9] - The average AI search visitor is reported to be 4.4 times more valuable than traditional search visitors based on conversion rates [7] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Google's future will depend on its ability to adapt its technology and strategy in a rapidly changing AI landscape [13] - Small- to medium-sized businesses are expected to be significantly impacted by these changes, with their survival hinging on their ability to embrace AI [14]

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet is experiencing investor anxiety due to recent attacks on Waymo self-driving cars during protests in Los Angeles, which could impact the company's growth strategy and lead to short-term volatility and financial losses [1][2] Group 1: Waymo and Market Impact - Waymo is a crucial part of Alphabet's future growth strategy, with the potential for public relations setbacks to affect investor confidence [1] - California is a key market for Waymo, covering approximately 20% of all rides in San Francisco, and any delays in infrastructure expansion could create further challenges [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Alphabet reported a 14% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $90.2 billion for Q1 2025, with significant contributions from core segments like YouTube and cloud services [3] - Google Cloud achieved $2.2 billion in operating income for Q1 2025, reflecting a 28% year-over-year growth [3] Group 3: Valuation and Revenue Streams - Despite strong performance, Alphabet's stock appears undervalued with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio under 19, significantly lower than AI competitors like NVIDIA, which has a PE ratio of 46.47 [4] - YouTube's advertising and subscription services generate approximately $10 billion per quarter, enhancing Alphabet's financial resilience [5] - The company is also focusing on monetizing AI tools, with plans like Google AI Pro at $20 per month and Google AI Ultra at $250 per month [5] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Betting against Alphabet's stock due to potential short-term setbacks from the Waymo incidents may be risky, as the company's diverse revenue streams are likely to facilitate recovery from short-term volatility [6]

Market Overview - The market is expected to show a pattern of index fluctuations with large-cap and quality indices outperforming [2][3][18] - Current economic fundamentals are stable, with no significant decline in exports due to external changes, and domestic demand policies are still in a preparatory phase [3][19] - Concerns about real estate sales remain, but overall corporate profit expectations are likely to remain stable [3][19] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on quality and cash flow-based approaches as manufacturing financing demand remains weak and capital expenditure continues to decline [3][18] - The upcoming implementation of new regulations on algorithmic trading is expected to reduce trading activity, impacting small-cap stocks negatively [3][20] Sector and Industry Recommendations - Recommended sectors for June include automotive, non-ferrous metals, defense and military, retail, beauty care, and chemical pharmaceuticals, focusing on traditional capacity clearance and the rise of new consumption [4][8][22] - The external tariff uncertainties may pressure domestic economic growth, necessitating more supportive policies for stable internal growth [4][22] Economic Indicators - Total demand growth remains stable at around 4%, with industrial enterprise revenue growth at 3.6% [28][30] - The investment side faces significant pressure, with new construction in real estate and manufacturing investment continuing to decline [19][35] Financial Policies and Market Sentiment - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to announce significant financial policies aimed at stabilizing economic and market expectations [25][49] - The market is currently experiencing limited inflow of incremental funds, with insurance capital being the main force in increasing A-share holdings [20][22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [31]. Core Insights - The TMT sector experienced varied performance in the week of May 19-23, with declines in major segments such as electronics (-2.17%) and computing (-3.02%), while sub-sectors like other communication equipment (+1.81%) showed positive growth [3]. - The AI ecosystem is continuously improving globally, highlighted by Nvidia's introduction of NVlink Fusion, which allows partners to integrate their CPUs or ASICs into Nvidia's architecture, enhancing AI system customization [3]. - In China, Huawei's launch of PCs running on the Harmony OS marks a significant step in domestic operating system development, potentially challenging Windows and MacOS market shares [3]. - Xiaomi's release of self-developed chips, including the 3nm process-based Xuanjie O1, positions the company competitively in the global SoC market [3]. Weekly Market Review - The TMT sector's performance from May 19-23 showed declines across major industries, with the media sector down by 0.16%, electronics by 2.17%, communication by 2.31%, and computing by 3.02% [3]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included other communication equipment (+1.81%) and gaming III (+1.63%), while the worst performers were communication network devices and components (-3.87%) and integrated circuit packaging and testing (-3.50%) [3]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Significant events included Nvidia's announcement of new AI technologies at Computex 2025 and Google's I/O developer conference showcasing a 50-fold increase in AI usage [3][17]. - Huawei's launch of Harmony OS PCs and Xiaomi's introduction of self-developed chips are pivotal in advancing domestic technology and reducing reliance on foreign systems [3][19]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of AI applications, with companies like OpenAI and Google making strides in AI capabilities and market penetration [3][19].

Group 1 - ByteDance issued a compliance notice urging business partners not to give gifts or cash to employees, emphasizing a zero-tolerance policy towards corruption and bribery [2] - Kuaishou faced allegations of requiring employees to use its app for one hour daily, which was later denied by internal sources, stating that while usage is encouraged, it is not mandatory [3] - Kunlun Wanwei's newly launched AI product experienced high user traffic leading to service limitations, indicating strong initial demand [4] Group 2 - The co-founder of Zero One Everything, Gu Xuemai, has left the company to pursue new entrepreneurial ventures, as the company shifts its focus towards lightweight model training and application [5] - A paper published in a top journal was found to contain inappropriate language, prompting an investigation by the journal [6][7] - Elon Musk announced his return to a 24/7 work schedule, emphasizing the need for operational improvements at X and Tesla [9][10] Group 3 - NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU set a new record for AI inference speed, achieving 1000 tokens per second per user, showcasing advancements in AI processing capabilities [11] - Apple plans to open its AI models to third-party developers to stimulate new application development, aiming to enhance its competitive position in the AI market [12] - OpenAI is acquiring AI device company io for $6.5 billion, marking its largest acquisition to date and expanding its hardware capabilities [13] Group 4 - JD.com is investing in ZhiYuan Robotics, indicating strong interest in the embodied intelligence sector, with the company positioned among the top players in this field [14] - Google announced the launch of Google AI Ultra, a comprehensive AI suite aimed at enhancing productivity across various industries [18][19] - Tencent introduced a smart agent development platform and plans to open-source multiple models, reflecting its commitment to advancing AI technology [21][22]