证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 元件 鹏鼎控股(002938) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 全球 PCB 龙头卡位算力赛道，AI 驱动第二成长曲线 ——鹏鼎控股更新报告 投资要点 ❑ 核心逻辑 公司作为全球领先的电路板供应商，深度绑定消费电子头部客户，当前正从消费 电子向 AI 算力及高阶通信板领域打开新的成长方向，算力相关业务有望超预 期。 ❑ 算力 PCB 加速扩张 公司加大投入布局，持续扩产 AI PCB 产能。公司加速布局 AI 应用市场产品， 下游终端市场包括服务器、AI 端侧、低轨卫星等高潜力赛道，终端产品包括高 阶 HDI（含 SLP）、HLC 等高端产品。公司泰国园区投资 42.97 亿元，加强 AI "云-管-端"全产业链产品矩阵，实现全球化布局。全资子公司庆鼎精密竞得淮 安工业用地，以承接 PCB 产业投资需求，为未来扩张打好坚实基础。 ❑ 技术优势持续体现 持续研发布局前沿技术，未来有望深度收益 AI 发展新需求。公司推出适配 GPU 和高速传输接口的高阶 HDI，光通讯领域，公司利用过去在消费电子领域积累 的 SLP 技术，设计高阶 mSAP 导入 800G/1.6T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in PCB supply, expanding from consumer electronics into AI computing and advanced communication boards, with potential for exceeding expectations in computing-related business [1] - The company is accelerating its investment in AI PCB capacity, targeting high-potential markets such as servers, AI edge devices, and low-orbit satellites, with significant investments in Thailand and new industrial land in Huai'an [2] - The company continues to demonstrate technical advantages by developing advanced HDI products suitable for GPUs and high-speed transmission interfaces, leveraging its SLP technology for optical communication applications [3] - The parent company is increasing investments in AI server PCB products, with plans to expand production capacity in Huai'an and Thailand, leading to a significant expected increase in related revenues in 2026 [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 415.92 billion, 490.54 billion, and 580.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 17.9%, and 18.3% respectively; net profit is expected to reach 45.98 billion, 55.76 billion, and 72.44 billion yuan, with growth rates of 27.0%, 21.3%, and 29.9% [5][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities highlights that Pengding Holdings is investing 4.3 billion RMB to enhance its AI "cloud-edge-end" full industry chain layout in Thailand [1] Investment in Thailand - The total investment of 4.297 billion RMB will be used for the construction of production facilities and supporting infrastructure in Thailand [1] - The investment will also include the capacity expansion for high-end HDI (including SLP), HLC, and other products to provide comprehensive PCB solutions for the rapidly growing AI application market [1] Expansion of AI Product Line - The company aims to further expand its AI product line capacity and enhance its technical strength and mass production capabilities in the AI computing power field [1] - This investment is expected to drive technological and product upgrades across various product lines [1] Acquisition of Huayang Technology - The company plans to acquire a 53.68% stake in Huayang Technology to strengthen its capabilities in the automotive electronics sector [1] - This acquisition will deepen the company's expertise in advanced PCB processes and system integration for automotive applications [1] Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]

Group 1 - The company announced an investment of 4.297 billion RMB to build production facilities and supporting infrastructure in a Thai park by 2026 [1][2] - The investment aims to expand the production capacity of AI product lines, including advanced HDI and HLC products, to provide comprehensive PCB solutions for the rapidly growing AI application market [2] - The company plans to acquire a 53.68% stake in Huayang Technology for 360 million RMB, enhancing its capabilities in the automotive electronics sector [2] Group 2 - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 38.45 billion RMB in 2025, 45.20 billion RMB in 2026, and 54.02 billion RMB in 2027, with net profits expected to be 3.82 billion RMB, 5.25 billion RMB, and 6.77 billion RMB respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company plans to invest a total of 42.97 billion RMB in its Thailand park to build production facilities and supporting infrastructure, which will enhance its AI product line capacity [5][6] - The company intends to acquire a 53.68% stake in Huayang Technology for 360 million RMB, strengthening its position in the automotive electronics sector [6] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 384.5 billion, 452.0 billion, and 540.2 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 38.2 billion, 52.5 billion, and 67.7 billion RMB [7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price of the stock is 48.64 RMB, with a total market capitalization of 1,128 billion RMB [4] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.4% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.18 [4] - Projected revenue growth rates are 9.59% for 2024, 9.42% for 2025, 17.56% for 2026, and 19.52% for 2027 [9][10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.65 RMB, 2.26 RMB, and 2.92 RMB respectively [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced a significant investment plan of 4.3 billion yuan in Thailand to enhance its production capacity for high-end HDI and HLC products, aiming to capture the growing AI application market [1]. Group 1: Investment Plans - The investment in Thailand will focus on constructing production facilities and increasing capacity for high-end HDI (including SLP) and HLC products, targeting the AI server and low-orbit satellite markets [1]. - The project is expected to be completed throughout 2026, with the second phase of production anticipated to start by the end of 2026 and the third phase by mid-2027 [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - Short-term revenue for M10 and M12 was reported at 4.22 billion and 3.82 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 3.1% and 5.6%, respectively, attributed to earlier customer inventory adjustments [2]. - The company has successfully passed factory certifications for its AI capabilities at both its Huai'an and Thailand bases, positioning itself for future growth in the AI PCB sector [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The company anticipates a three-year upward cycle driven by hardware innovation and AI integration, with significant product innovations expected from key clients between 2025 and 2027 [3]. - The company is actively expanding its GPU/ASIC terminal customer base and increasing production capacity for high-end HDI and HLC products, which is expected to drive new growth opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to invest 4.3 billion yuan in its Thailand base in 2026 to expand production capacity for high-end HDI and HLC products, aiming to provide comprehensive PCB solutions for the rapidly growing AI application market [6]. - The investment project is expected to enhance the company's AI PCB production capacity significantly, potentially reaching over 6 billion yuan in output value by 2027 [6]. - Short-term revenue for the company has shown a decline due to earlier customer inventory adjustments, with Q4 performance expected to be under pressure from exchange rate challenges [6]. - The company is well-positioned for medium to long-term growth, driven by hardware innovations and AI applications across various sectors, including wearable technology and robotics [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 38.3 billion, 47.9 billion, and 57.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.95 billion, 5.33 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 32.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 11%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10% in 2024 and 9% in 2025 [12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.42 yuan in 2023, increasing to 3.03 yuan by 2027 [13]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 33.8 in 2023 to 15.8 in 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation as earnings grow [13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 11.4% in 2023 to 17.8% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 47.89 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][4]. Core Views - The company is expanding its AI production capacity in Thailand, which supports its "cloud-edge" full industry chain strategy. This investment is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the AI application market [4][6]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 411.55 billion, RMB 501.93 billion, and RMB 591.50 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 45.45 billion, RMB 57.76 billion, and RMB 67.39 billion. The price-to-earnings ratios for these years are estimated at 24.4, 19.2, and 16.5 times [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company’s main revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 41,155 million, with a growth rate of 17.1% compared to the previous year. The EBITDA is projected to be RMB 7,170 million, and the net profit is expected to reach RMB 4,545 million, reflecting a growth rate of 25.5% [5][10]. - The company’s capital expenditure reached RMB 49.72 billion by the end of Q3 2025, indicating a significant increase in investment compared to the previous year [6][7]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 268.55 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.34%, with a net profit of RMB 24.07 billion, up 21.23% [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in various locations, including Huai'an, Thailand, and Kaohsiung, Taiwan, to meet the growing demand for AI-related products [6][7]. - The strategic investment in Thailand, amounting to RMB 42.97 billion, aims to build production facilities and enhance the company's product offerings in high-end HDI and other advanced PCB solutions [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest a total of 4.297 billion RMB in its Thailand park for the construction of production facilities and supporting infrastructure in 2026, aiming to capitalize on the growing AI application market [1] Investment Plan - The board of directors has approved the investment plan for 2026, which includes the construction of production plants and related facilities in Thailand [1] - The investment will also focus on increasing production capacity for high-end HDI (including SLP), HLC, and other products [1] Market Strategy - The investment is aimed at providing comprehensive PCB solutions across various fields, including servers, AI edge products, and low-orbit satellites, to meet the demands of the rapidly growing AI market [1] - The project is expected to enhance the company's "cloud-edge-end" full industry chain layout and accelerate its global business expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Pengding Holdings, has approved an investment plan for 2026 to invest a total of 4.297 billion RMB in a production park in Thailand, focusing on the rapidly growing AI application market [1] Investment Plan - The investment will be used for the construction of production facilities and supporting infrastructure in Thailand [1] - The investment includes the capacity expansion for high-end HDI products, including SLP and HLC, to provide comprehensive PCB solutions across various fields such as servers, AI edge products, and low-orbit satellites [1] - The project is scheduled to be completed throughout the year 2026 [1] Strategic Goals - The investment aims to capitalize on the AI trend and leverage the ONEAVARY product technology platform [1] - The company intends to accelerate its full industry chain layout for AI, covering cloud, management, and edge [1] - This move is part of the company's strategy to enhance its global business footprint [1]