证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 鹏鼎控股（002938.SZ） 43 亿泰国基地扩产计划，进一步加速海外 AI PCB 产能布局 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：12 月 15 日公司公告对外投资计划：2026 年向泰国基地投资 43 亿元（自 有或自筹资金），用于建设生产厂房及配套设施，并同步布局高阶 HDI（含 SLP）、 HLC 等产品产能，为快速成长的 AI 应用市场提供涵盖 AI 服务器、AI 端侧产品、 低轨卫星等多领域的全方位 PCB 解决方案。本次投资建设项目周期为 2026 年 全年。结合公司近况，我们点评如下： ❑ 风险提示：地缘政治冲突加剧带来潜在的关税风险，需求低于预期、同行竞 争加剧、扩产进度及产能爬坡低于预期、客户新品拓展不及预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 32066 | 35140 | 38303 | 47879 | 57455 | | 同比增长 | -11% ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid financial performance for the first three quarters of the year, with revenue of 26.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.41 billion yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in both revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 10.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 was 1.17 billion yuan, down 1.3% year-on-year but up 57.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 23.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 was 11.1%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Acquisition and Strategic Moves - The company announced a cash acquisition and capital increase of 357 million yuan for Wuxi Huayang Technology, which will result in a 53.68% stake in the company [1] - Wuxi Huayang Technology specializes in the production of vehicle-mounted modules and the research and development of sensors, enhancing the company's competitiveness in the automotive electronics sector [2] - The acquisition is expected to strengthen the company's capabilities in advanced processes and system integration in automotive PCB applications [2] Market Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in profits in Q4, driven by strong sales of major clients and increased orders in the supply chain [2] - The company is also expanding its AI-PCB high-end capacity, with successful certification from key clients, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [2] - The period from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be a significant innovation phase for major clients, with new product developments expected to drive demand and technological advancements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent financing and expansion plans of major PCB companies are primarily driven by the increasing demand for AI technologies and high-end PCB products, indicating a significant shift in the industry towards advanced manufacturing capabilities [1][3][6]. Group 1: Company Expansion Plans - Huadian Co. disclosed a new project for high-end printed circuit boards (PCBs) with an investment of 4.3 billion yuan, which began construction in June 2023 and is expected to start trial production in the second half of 2026 [1]. - Shenghong Technology completed a fundraising round of 1.9 billion yuan, with allocations of 850 million yuan for an AI HDI project in Vietnam and 500 million yuan for a high-layer PCB project in Thailand [1]. - Eight PCB manufacturers have announced new financing and expansion plans since July 25, focusing on enhancing their capabilities in HDI, HLC, and SLP products [1][2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Trends - The demand for high-density and high-layer PCBs is expected to grow significantly due to advancements in AI, satellite communications, and automotive electronics, with the HDI market projected to reach 17.037 billion USD by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.4% [6]. - The complexity of PCB production processes is increasing, necessitating higher precision and efficiency in manufacturing equipment, particularly in plating and drilling stages [6][7]. - The shift towards high-end PCB products is driving upgrades in core materials such as copper foil, electronic cloth, and resin, which are essential for meeting the demands of high-speed signal transmission [7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The expansion of PCB production is anticipated to create a favorable cycle for the industry, benefiting upstream material and equipment companies as demand for high-end PCBs rises [7]. - The global market for PCB-specific equipment is expected to reach 10.765 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.7% from 2024 to 2029 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of listed companies in China's economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing innovation as a key driver for high-quality growth [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Pengding Holdings, established in April 1999 and listed in September 2018, is recognized as the global leader in the PCB industry, maintaining its top position for eight consecutive years from 2017 to 2024 [2]. - In the first half of this year, Pengding Holdings achieved a revenue of 16.375 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.75%, and a net profit of 1.233 billion yuan, up 57.22% [2]. Group 2: Research and Development - The company has invested over 8.597 billion yuan in R&D from 2021 to the first half of 2025, with 1.072 billion yuan allocated in the first half of this year [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, Pengding Holdings has applied for 2,732 patents, with 1,525 granted, and was recognized as a "National Enterprise Technology Center" in 2023 [4]. Group 3: Product and Market Position - Pengding Holdings offers a diverse range of PCB products, including FPC, SMA, SLP, HDI, RPCB, and Rigid Flex, with a global market share of over 30% in the FPC sector, making it the largest FPC manufacturer worldwide [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investments - The company plans to exceed 10 billion yuan in R&D investments during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on AI servers, optical modules, and AI edge products [5]. - Pengding Holdings is investing a total of 8 billion yuan in its Huai'an park for high-end HDI and SLP projects, with production expected to ramp up during peak seasons [5]. Group 5: Digital Transformation and Sustainability - Since 2019, the company has been implementing smart factory planning, aiming for intelligent manufacturing and digital transformation, with 13 smart factories established by the end of 2024 [7]. - In 2024, Pengding Holdings' environmental investment exceeded 80 million yuan, with operational costs around 260 million yuan, achieving a carbon reduction of 579,139 tons, equivalent to a 62% decrease in total carbon emissions [8]. Group 6: Shareholder Returns - Since its listing in 2018, Pengding Holdings has distributed over 9.7 billion yuan in dividends, reflecting its strong financial health and commitment to shareholder value [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 20.93% in the first half of 2025, despite a slight decline in net profit, indicating resilience in a challenging global economic environment driven by trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 reached 7,095,186,521.63 CNY, up from 5,867,141,061.12 CNY in the same period last year, reflecting a growth of 20.93% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 649,550,970.36 CNY, a decrease of 1.06% compared to 656,532,509.80 CNY in H1 2024 [3]. - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 537,390,109.68 CNY, down 9.02% from 590,670,835.34 CNY year-on-year [3]. - Total assets increased by 10.62% to 21,287,462,378.19 CNY, while net assets attributable to shareholders grew by 0.34% to 11,351,767,534.73 CNY [2][3]. Industry Trends - The PCB industry is experiencing structural growth driven by advancements in AI hardware, automotive ADAS, and high-end consumer electronics, despite global economic uncertainties [2]. - The demand for high-density interconnect (HDI), high-level circuit (HLC), and flexible printed circuit (FPC) boards is increasing, necessitating higher customization and advanced manufacturing capabilities [2]. Company Strategy and Operations - The company operates six production bases in China and is establishing a production base in Thailand, aiming for a sustainable international supply strategy [4]. - In the AI server sector, the company has accelerated mass production and enhanced its HDI capabilities, responding to high demand for high-end products [4]. - The company is upgrading its existing facilities and expanding its production capacity for high-end HDI to support AI servers and data centers [4]. Product Innovations - The company has achieved significant technological breakthroughs in high-frequency and high-speed communication products, including advanced HDI and multi-layer PTFE boards [5]. - In the automotive electronics sector, the company has become the largest automotive PCB supplier globally, focusing on high-level intelligent driving applications and expanding its customer base [6]. - The company is actively exploring new business opportunities in emerging fields such as humanoid robots and low-altitude aircraft, leveraging its expertise in automotive electronics [7]. Consumer Electronics - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI-driven consumer electronics, including AI phones, PCs, and smart home devices, by leveraging its technological advantages in high-density boards [7].

Core Viewpoint - Pengding Holdings is actively investing in the AI server and optical module markets to establish a comprehensive AI cloud-edge ecosystem, while maintaining stable costs through the use of imported high-end copper-clad laminate materials [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Pengding Holdings achieved total revenue of 16.375 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.233 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.22% [1]. - The increase in revenue is attributed to a higher proportion of consumer electronics and automotive products, which have higher gross margins compared to communication products [1]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is launching advanced HDI products for AI servers and automotive PCBs, with automotive server board revenue reaching 0.805 billion, a year-on-year increase of 87.42% [1]. - Pengding Holdings plans to invest a total of 8 billion in its Huai'an park to expand production capacity for SLP, high-end HDI, and HLC products, targeting the rapidly growing AI application market [2]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The first phase of the Thailand park is expected to be completed by May 2025, with partial production starting in the fourth quarter, focusing on AI servers, automotive, and optical communication sectors [2]. - The second phase of the Thailand facility has also commenced construction [2]. Raw Material Management - The company primarily uses imported high-end copper-clad laminate materials, which have relatively stable market prices, thus limiting the impact on overall costs [2]. - Pengding Holdings is enhancing cooperation with upstream raw material suppliers to ensure stable supply and is optimizing product structure through technological upgrades to mitigate the pressure from rising raw material prices [2]. Market Outlook - The demand for PCBs is expected to surge due to increased AI computing power, leading to a heated upstream materials market, although the price of copper-clad laminates remains uncertain due to fluctuations in copper prices [3].

Group 1: AI Server Market and Production Plans - The company is actively investing in the AI server and optical module markets to establish a comprehensive AI cloud-edge-end layout, with production capacity in Huai'an and initial production in Thailand expected in Q4 2025 [2][3] - The first phase of the Thailand plant was completed in May 2025, focusing on AI servers, automotive, and optical communication products [2] - The company plans to invest a total of 8 billion RMB in the Huai'an park to expand production capacity for SLP, high-end HDI, and HLC products, with the investment period from H2 2025 to 2028 [3] Group 2: Cost Management and Material Prices - The impact of rising prices for upstream copper-clad laminates on overall costs is limited due to the company's reliance on imported high-end materials, which have relatively stable prices [3] - The company is enhancing cooperation with upstream suppliers and optimizing product structures to mitigate the pressure from rising raw material prices [3] - The price of copper-clad laminates is subject to fluctuations in copper prices, leading to uncertainty in price trends for the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Growth Drivers - The company's strong performance in H1 2025 is attributed to an increased revenue share from consumer electronics and automotive products, which have higher profit margins compared to communication products [3] - New production lines showed significant improvement in yield rates in Q2, contributing to better cost control [3] - The server and automotive PCB business achieved revenue of 805 million RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 87.42% [3][4] Group 4: Funding Sources for Investments - The 8 billion RMB investment for the Huai'an industrial park will be funded through the company's own resources [4]

Expansion Investment Overview - The company plans to invest a total of 5 billion RMB in the expansion of its Zhuhai Jinwan base, with an estimated payback period of approximately 7.5 years, including the construction period [1][2] - The investment will be implemented in phases, including the renovation of existing facilities and the construction of a new high-end HDI factory, expected to produce 800,000 square meters of high-end HDI by mid-2026 [1][2] Market Demand and Feasibility - The expansion is driven by the high demand for high-end PCBs, particularly in AI servers and high-speed network infrastructure, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 15.7% for multilayer boards with 18 layers or more from 2024 to 2029 [1][3] - The company has over 30 years of experience in PCB manufacturing and has established a solid technical foundation and customer base at the Zhuhai Jinwan base, ensuring the feasibility of the expansion project [2][3] Strategic Alignment - The investment aligns with national industrial policies and meets the long-term, high-standard demand for high-end PCBs in emerging fields, enhancing the company's competitive advantage in high-end products [3][4] - The project supports the company's strategy to focus on AI and expand its second growth curve, aiming to increase the proportion of high-end products in its portfolio [3][4] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.343 billion RMB, with a net cash flow compound growth rate of 21.34%, indicating a strong financial position to support the investment [5] - The funding will come from self-owned or self-raised funds, and the company plans to optimize its capital structure and financing costs to ensure sufficient funds for the project [5]

Core Viewpoint - Company plans to invest 5 billion yuan in the expansion project at Zhuhai Jinwan base, focusing on high-growth areas such as AI computing power, high-speed network communication, and automotive intelligence [1][3] Group 1: Investment and Project Details - The total investment for the expansion project is estimated at 5 billion yuan, with a post-tax investment payback period of approximately 7.5 years, including the construction period from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The expansion will be implemented in phases based on market demand and business progress [1] - The project aims to enhance production capacity for high-end PCBs, particularly in AI computing, high-speed networking, and automotive intelligence [1][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - Recent technological breakthroughs in large models and generative AI have driven significant innovation in technology hardware, leading to a high demand for high-end PCBs [1] - Prismark forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 15.7% for multilayer boards with 18 layers or more and 6.4% for HDI from 2024 to 2029, driven by AI server and high-speed network infrastructure [1] - The high-end PCB market is expected to grow due to increasing requirements for advanced technology and higher product value, while competition in ordinary products is intensifying [1] Group 3: Strategic Alignment and Future Outlook - The expansion project aligns with national industrial policies and industry development trends, addressing the long-term and high-standard demand for high-end PCBs in emerging fields [3] - The company aims to enhance its technological innovation capabilities and increase the proportion of high-end products, focusing on AI to create a second growth curve [3] - The expansion is expected to improve the company's economic efficiency, expand operational scale, and strengthen its competitive advantage in high-end products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced a 5 billion yuan expansion investment plan for the Zhuhai Jinwan base, focusing on enhancing production capacity for high-end HDI, HLC, and SLP products in AI computing, high-speed network communication, automotive intelligence, and AI edge applications [1] Group 1: Investment and Expansion - The investment plan includes technical upgrades to existing facilities, new AI server HDI production lines, and the construction of a new high-end HDI factory [1] - The expansion aims to integrate resources at the Zhuhai Jinwan base and strengthen the company's manufacturing capabilities for high-end products [1] - The construction period for the expansion is set from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Capacity - There is a projected rapid growth in demand for high-layer boards and high-end HDI thick boards in the AI server market, with current high-end capacity being relatively tight [1] - The company is expected to make significant progress in high-end product technology for core computing clients both domestically and internationally [1] - The existing production capacity at the Zhuhai Jinwan factory includes 1.2 million square meters of high-layer boards and 300,000 square meters of HDI/SLP boards [1] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company maintains previous revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, with expectations of increased orders from North American clients due to the accelerated investment in AI PCB capacity [2] - The company is well-positioned in various downstream application fields, with ongoing product introductions in data communication and automotive sectors [2] - The upgrade of high-end computing capacity is anticipated to open up long-term performance and valuation growth opportunities for the company [2]