近期，泡泡玛特旗下热门IP LABUBU在二手交易市场的价格出现显著回调，部分系列商品转手价甚至 低于官方原价，引发市场关注。 1月7日，记者在闲鱼二手交易平台观察到，LABUBU 3.0"前方高能"系列整端6盒的转手价格已跌至400 元，较官方指导价明显缩水。此外，LABUBU部分款式近7日平均成交价格出现下滑态势。具体来看， LABUBU系列在2025年12月30日的近7日平均成交价为83.5元，而到2026年1月7日，这一价格已降至 78.5元。 业内分析人士指出，LABUBU二手价格的理性回归，根本驱动是市场增长逻辑的切换：商业模式正从 依赖"投资品"预期，回归到"消费品"本质。当二手市场炒作退潮，支撑高估值的故事也随之改变。 二手平台： LABUBU部分款式价格走低 超六成用户看跌后续走势 1月7日，记者在闲鱼二手交易平台观察到，LABUBU 3.0"前方高能"系列整端6盒的转手价格已跌至400 元，较官方指导价明显缩水。这一价格走势与数月前该系列盲盒预售"秒空"、二手市场溢价数倍的盛况 形成鲜明对比。 2025年4月，在泡泡玛特中国内地线上平台，LABUBU第三代搪胶毛绒产品一上线便迅速被抢光，秒 ...

LABUBU二手交易价格开始回归理性，甚至低于原价。 左图来源二手交易平台，右图来自天猫。 潮流网购社区得物APP显示，星星人美味时刻盲盒的价格也出现下滑。1月5日，其成交均价为143.7元，而在高峰时期其成交均价为359元。 1月5日，智通财经从二手交易平台获悉，部分LABUBU 3.0前方高能系列整端6盒的转手价为400元，远低于官方价。同日，LABUBU天猫旗舰店的同款6盒 不重复的价格为1168元，整端塑封未拆的价格为1198元。 泡泡玛特产品价格下滑，主要是受到供给增加的影响。在2025年6月18日LABUBU 3.0"前方高能"系列首次开启全球范围线上预售后，官方随即在各地线下门 店及线上多个渠道进行了大规模补货。 泡泡玛特天猫旗舰店显示，包括"前方高能""心底密码"等多个LABUBU系列，目前不仅能直接下单单盒或整端盒，而且都标明"48小时内发货"。这和几个月 前预售"秒空"的情况形成较大反差。 随着官方不定期增加供应，市场预期发生转变，投机情绪开始退潮，也成为泡泡玛特产品二手价格回落的重要原因。有媒体报道称，一些经营二手商品的商 家表示"暂缓收购LABUBU系列"。投机性资金离场后，价格支撑减 ...

比3.0更晚推出的LABUBU 4.0心底密码系列，似乎更早与"稀缺"无缘。早在该系列发售初期，便有消费 者向记者表示，只要保持对门店补货动态的关注，即使是4.0系列端盒也并非难事。12月30日，记者走 访泡泡玛特广州某门店时，就有店员表示，店内有LABUBU 4.0心底密码系列的现货，"现场买了就可 以直接带走。" 在LABUBU转售价大跳水的同时，在两年时间里股价翻了十余倍的泡泡玛特，在8月触及高点339.8港 元/股后，股价便进入了下行区间，截至目前累计跌幅约40%，总市值蒸发超过2000亿港元。 【#LABUBU部分二手价低于官方价#，#LABUBU放量任买48小时发货#】LABUBU已从"理财产品"回 归为普通消费品。 1月3日，记者发现，泡泡玛特天猫旗舰店里，LABUBU多系列已不再缺货。前方高能、心底密码、慵 懒瑜伽、怪味便利店等系列均可购买单盒或端盒（即一盒数个完整"端下"，保证常规款不重复）。在数 月前，连预售订单都需要靠抢才能得到的同款产品，如今已是48小时内保证发货的现货状态。 "有心理预期，想着肯定有这么一天。但就我自身情况而言，还能接受，因为之前每次买的时候，都是 原价购入的，没选择 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The LABUBU secondary market prices have plummeted, leading to a significant decline in the stock price of Pop Mart, despite the company's strong fundamentals and impressive revenue growth [2][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 27, Pop Mart's stock price closed at HKD 233.40 per share, down over 30% from its historical peak, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding HKD 140 billion [2][7]. - The LABUBU series, once a hot commodity in the secondary market, saw its average transaction price drop from over HKD 1,100 to around HKD 200, with specific hidden variants falling to approximately HKD 700 [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a staggering revenue increase of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, continuing the high growth trend from the first half of the year [9][11]. - Revenue growth was particularly strong in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year increase of 185% to 190%, and online channels experiencing a growth rate of 300% to 305% [9][11]. - The overseas market showed even more remarkable performance, with a year-on-year revenue surge of 365% to 370%, particularly in the Americas, which saw a growth rate of 1265% to 1270% [9][11]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Predictions - Following the impressive earnings report, several brokerage firms raised their profit forecasts for Pop Mart, with target prices and ratings reflecting a positive long-term outlook [9][11]. - High-profile analysts, including those from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have adjusted their ratings and earnings predictions upward, citing strong IP momentum and supply capacity expansion as key drivers [11][12]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The decline in LABUBU prices has led to a rational reflection on the sustainability of high growth, causing some investors to sell off shares, while others, particularly mainland investors, have shown a strong willingness to buy during the dip [2][13][15]. - There is a notable divergence between mainland and foreign investors, with mainland funds increasing their holdings while foreign institutions have been reducing their positions in Pop Mart [13][15].

Core Insights - The LABUBU secondary market prices have plummeted, leading to a significant decline in the stock price of Pop Mart, known as the "king of trendy toys," which has dropped over 30% from its historical peak, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over HKD 100 billion [1][3] - Despite the stock price decline, Pop Mart's fundamentals remain strong, with a projected revenue increase of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, driven by explosive growth in both domestic and international markets [1][6] - Following the earnings announcement, several brokerage firms raised their profit forecasts for Pop Mart, maintaining optimistic long-term valuations and recommending buy or hold ratings [1][6] Market Dynamics - The LABUBU series was once a "hard currency" in the second-hand market, with prices reaching as high as HKD 1.08 million for unique items, but recent supply increases have caused prices to crash to around HKD 200 [2][3] - Pop Mart's strategy to increase supply and optimize distribution channels has led to a significant drop in secondary market prices, which has raised concerns among investors [4][6] - The company's proactive approach aims to stabilize prices and enhance consumer experience, although it has temporarily driven speculative funds out of the market [4] Financial Performance - Pop Mart's Q3 2025 financial report indicates a substantial revenue growth of 245% to 250%, with the Chinese market growing by 185% to 190% and international markets, particularly the Americas, experiencing a staggering growth of 1265% to 1270% [6][8] - Brokerage firms have adjusted their revenue forecasts for Pop Mart, with the average projected revenue for 2025 rising from approximately HKD 300 billion to nearly HKD 350 billion [6][8] Investor Sentiment - There is a notable divergence in investment behavior, with mainland investors showing strong interest in "bottom-fishing" during the stock price decline, increasing their holdings from 1.92 billion shares to 2.12 billion shares [9] - In contrast, foreign investors have been reducing their stakes in Pop Mart, with significant sell-offs reported by major institutions like UBS and HSBC [9][14][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and popularity of the "Star People" IP under Pop Mart, highlighting its successful marketing strategies and emotional connection with consumers, which have led to significant sales and market interest [7][11][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the National Day holiday, Pop Mart's "Star People" IP launched multiple pop-up stores and themed exhibitions in major cities, aiming to capture high foot traffic [7]. - The new "Star People Delicious Moments Series" blind boxes sold out instantly on the official platform, with secondary market prices soaring. For instance, the hidden "Little Bear Biscuit" pendant's official price was 59 yuan, while its market price reached 929 yuan, a 16-fold increase [9][11]. - As of mid-2025, the "Star People" IP generated revenue of 390 million yuan, making it the fastest-growing new IP for Pop Mart [15]. Group 2: Emotional Connection and Branding - "Star People" was created in 2020 as a healing character, designed to resonate emotionally with consumers, which has been a key factor in its popularity [11][12]. - The character's design and backstory focus on themes of healing and emotional connection, appealing particularly to the younger generation [11][15]. - The emotional resonance of "Star People" aligns with market trends, as 78% of Generation Z consumers are willing to pay a premium for products that evoke emotional responses [15]. Group 3: Marketing Strategies - Pop Mart has implemented a comprehensive marketing strategy for "Star People," including various themed series and merchandise, such as phone cases and candles, to enhance both utility and collectibility [17][19]. - The introduction of a low-priced "Freestyle" series aims to attract a broader consumer base, creating a product hierarchy that balances mass appeal with high-end collectibles [19]. - Collaborations with other established IPs, such as MOLLY and DIMOO, have been utilized to leverage existing fan bases and enhance visibility for "Star People" [20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current success, "Star People" is still in the early stages of content and story development, which is crucial for long-term sustainability [22]. - The article notes that while "Star People" has shown promising growth, it still has a long way to go to reach the level of established IPs like LABUBU, which has a more extensive revenue base [22][24]. - The market's attention may shift to new IPs as trends evolve, posing a challenge for Pop Mart to maintain the momentum and extend the value of "Star People" [25].

Core Insights - The "childlike economy" is gaining traction, appealing not only to children but also to adults, as seen with the popularity of LABUBU blind boxes and the opening of the first LEGO theme park in Shanghai [1][2][6] Group 1: Market Trends - LABUBU blind boxes are experiencing significant demand, with hidden variants selling at over 20 times their original price in the secondary market [1] - The LEGO theme park in Shanghai has seen a surge in ticket sales and hotel bookings since its opening on July 5 [1] - The overall market for IP toys in China is projected to grow from 48.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 75.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.68% [7] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The primary demographic for purchasing blind boxes is between 25 to 35 years old, accounting for 60% to 70% of buyers, who seek emotional value and low-cost happiness [7] - The rise of social media has transformed niche interests like blind boxes into mainstream trends, enhancing consumer engagement and interaction [7] Group 3: New Business Models - The demand for doll clothing has surged, with one store owner reporting a production capacity of 30,000 units per day, half of which are for overseas orders [3] - The emergence of "doll modification" services has created new job opportunities, with one artist's orders fully booked until August [5] - The integration of toy culture with tourism is exemplified by the collaboration between TNTSPACE and Impression West Lake, which launched a successful blind box series [6] Group 4: Economic Impact - The "childlike economy" is fostering new business ecosystems, including custom doll clothing, modification services, and themed accessories, enhancing user engagement and creating new job opportunities [6] - The transformation of traditional shopping areas into hubs for trendy toys has led to significant increases in foot traffic and sales, with one mall reporting a 60% year-on-year increase in revenue during the 2024 National Day holiday [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the explosive popularity of the LABUBU series from Pop Mart, highlighting its transformation from a niche toy to a cultural phenomenon driven by celebrity endorsements and emotional value [1][8][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - LABUBU's revenue surged from 263 million yuan in 2022 to 3.68 billion yuan in 2023, and is projected to exceed 3 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 726.6% [5]. - Pop Mart's overall revenue reached 13.04 billion yuan in 2024, with LABUBU significantly contributing to this growth [5][7]. - As of June 6, Pop Mart's market capitalization was 328.8 billion HKD (approximately 301.2 billion yuan) [7]. Group 2: Celebrity Influence - The popularity of LABUBU was significantly boosted by Thai celebrity Lisa's social media posts, leading to increased demand in both domestic and international markets [8]. - Other celebrities, including Rihanna, have also been spotted with LABUBU products, further enhancing its status as a social currency [8]. Group 3: Emotional and Psychological Factors - The "variable reward mechanism" of blind boxes creates a gambling-like thrill, making the unboxing experience addictive [9]. - LABUBU's design features, such as its childlike characteristics, resonate with consumers' preferences for cute items, while its rebellious aesthetic connects with urban youth culture [9]. Group 4: Marketing Strategies - Pop Mart employs "hunger marketing" tactics, creating scarcity through limited releases, which has successfully positioned LABUBU as a luxury item [10]. - The brand's limited editions come with certificates and artist signatures, enhancing their perceived value and desirability [10]. Group 5: Ecosystem Development - The popularity of LABUBU has led to a self-sustaining commercial ecosystem, with secondary markets thriving and generating additional revenue streams [11]. - Social media platforms have become vital for promoting LABUBU, with unboxing videos garnering millions of views and driving consumer engagement [11]. Group 6: Challenges and Concerns - The surge in demand has led to incidents of violence and chaos during product launches, prompting Pop Mart to suspend sales in certain locations [14]. - Quality control issues have emerged, with numerous consumer complaints regarding manufacturing defects, raising concerns about the brand's reputation [15]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The article draws parallels between LABUBU and Bearbrick, suggesting that LABUBU may face similar challenges in sustaining its popularity amid market saturation and counterfeit products [16][17]. - Recommendations for sustainable growth include enhancing brand storytelling, improving anti-counterfeiting measures, and fostering community engagement among consumers [18][19][20][21].

Core Insights - Pop Mart has established a significant position in the trendy toy market through continuous innovation in its IP and diverse product offerings, particularly with the LABUBU series, which has gained immense popularity among international celebrities on social media [1] - The strong market demand has led to a surge in sales of LABUBU's blind boxes and figurines on major e-commerce platforms, with popular items frequently sold out, indicating a growing supply-demand imbalance [1] - The secondary market has seen a phenomenon of premium resale for certain limited-edition items, with resale prices on second-hand platforms reaching 2 to 3 times the original price, exemplified by a unique mint-colored LABUBU selling for 1.08 million yuan at an auction [1] Market Trends - The unique nature of blind box products creates a situation where consumers often purchase multiple times without obtaining their desired items, further driving demand for specific LABUBU models on second-hand platforms [1] - Platforms like Xianyu have introduced rental services for LABUBU figures, catering to various scenarios such as photography and event decoration, with daily rental prices ranging from 30 to 80 yuan [3][10] - Since June, the search volume for LABUBU-related products on Xianyu has increased tenfold compared to May, and the transaction volume for rentals has doubled, indicating a growing trend in the rental market [10] Consumer Behavior - The rise of LABUBU's rental and premium trading models reflects a robust demand for trendy cultural consumption, with consumers opting for rentals to lower costs while still engaging with the product [10] - However, there are concerns regarding the significant price inflation of limited items in the secondary market, which may not reflect the actual value of the products, suggesting a potential bubble [10] - The current rental services lack standardized hygiene and damage compensation protocols, highlighting the need for consumers to confirm deposit return terms and product condition assessment processes [10]