新易盛（300502.SZ） 客户提货节奏短暂影响三季度，产业景气下增长动能充沛 TMT 及中小盘/通信 2025 年 10 月 25 日，新易盛发布 2025 年三季度报告。25Q3 营业收入 165.05 当前股价：406.1 元 亿元，同比增长 221.70%；归母净利润 63.27 亿元，同比增长 284.38%。25Q3 单季度营收 60.68 亿元，环比下降 4.97%；归母净利润 23.85 亿元，环比增长 0.63%。公司 Q3 业绩增速环比短期回落，主要系大客户提货节奏影响，硅光模 块逐步上量叠加部分物料的紧缺改善，算力高景气度下，公司增长动能充沛。 ❑ 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、技术升级风险、贸易摩擦与汇率波动风险、下游 客户 Capex 不及预期的风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 3098 | 8647 | 25611 | 36855 | 45900 | | 同比增长 | -6% | 179% | 19 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit and revenue for the first nine months of 2025, driven by the demand from AI data centers, achieving a revenue of 1.068 billion RMB and a net profit of 680 million RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 28% and 65% respectively [6]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of data center switches in the internet industry, benefiting from increased capital expenditures from clients and ongoing improvements in operational efficiency [6][9]. - The report anticipates that major internet companies will begin a new round of bidding for data center equipment in 2026, which will further solidify the company's market share [9]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 34.08% in the first nine months of 2025, a slight decrease of 1.42 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased competition and cost-cutting demands from clients [8]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the upcoming years, with projected revenues of 11.699 billion RMB in 2024, 15.153 billion RMB in 2025, and 18.670 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 1.36%, 29.52%, and 23.21% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 574.08 million RMB in 2024, 1.202 billion RMB in 2025, and 1.735 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 43.09%, 109.36%, and 44.36% respectively [5]. Market Position - The company holds a market share of 20.2% in the Ethernet switch market and 25.6% in the data center switch market, ranking third in China [7]. - The company has maintained its position as the top supplier of 200G/400G data center switches for 14 consecutive quarters [7]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the expected increase in capital expenditures from major internet firms, with ByteDance and Alibaba projected to invest 160 billion RMB and 120 billion RMB respectively in 2025 [9]. - The company has launched a new stock incentive plan to enhance internal operations and motivation among employees [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 10.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 282.64% [1][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2025 was 3.942 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 355.68% [1][7] - The strong performance is attributed to the mass shipment of 800G optical modules and improvements in yield rates [1][7] - The company is expanding its production capacity in Thailand, with total optical module capacity increasing by 43.4% to 15.2 million units by the end of H1 2025 [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 25.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 196% [2] - Expected net profit for 2025 is 9.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 231% [2] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 407.2 in 2023 to 29.9 in 2025, indicating a potential valuation re-rating [2][7] Performance Metrics - The company’s point-to-point optical module sales volume reached 6.95 million units in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 112.5% [7] - The gross margin for point-to-point optical modules improved to 47.78%, up 4.12 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 72.8% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-speed optical modules driven by AI data center construction [7] - The report anticipates further growth in revenue and net profit for 2026 and 2027, with projected revenues of 36.86 billion yuan and 45.90 billion yuan, respectively [2][7] - The company is expected to continue enhancing its product offerings, including advancements in 1.6T and LPO optical modules [7]

Core Insights - The Data Center Interconnect (DCI) market is expected to exceed $40 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% driven by policies and the demand for AI applications [1][2] - Companies in the DCI sector are experiencing significant revenue growth, with Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue projected to reach 23.862 billion yuan in 2024, a 122.64% increase year-on-year [2] - The demand for high-speed optical modules, particularly 800G and 1.6T products, is surging due to the global competition for computing power [2][4] Industry Growth - The DCI technology facilitates high-speed data transmission between data centers, which is crucial for managing the heavy computational load of AI data [2] - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang are leading the market with substantial increases in revenue and profit, indicating a robust demand for their optical communication products [2][3] - Other companies in the supply chain, such as Shenzhen Xianying Technology and Guangdong Tongyu Communication, also reported net profit growth exceeding 100% in the first quarter [3] Company Strategies - Zhongji Xuchuang is solidifying its market position by continuously innovating and expanding its product offerings, including the successful launch of 800G and 1.6T optical modules [4] - Companies are focusing on developing new technologies, such as linear drive pluggable optical modules, to meet the increasing market demands for high-speed data transmission [4] - Jiangsu Hengtong Optic-Electric is actively engaging in research and development of key materials for hollow-core optical fibers, indicating a commitment to advancing technology in the DCI space [5] Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more efficient optical components, with a focus on compact design and high integration to meet the rigorous demands of the market [4] - Companies are also exploring flexible direct current transmission technologies to support the rapid development of data centers [6]