泡泡玛特早盘低开低走，截至午间收盘，报201港元，跌幅达8.22%。与此同时，市场看空情绪持续升 温。12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空金额从2.41亿港元大幅上升至6.23亿港元。消息面上， 摩根士丹利近 期报告指出，泡泡玛特正从过去两年的"爆发式增长"过渡到未来的"可持续增长"，预计2026年Labubu收 入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单一爆款转向非Labubu IP的多元化驱动。泡泡玛特第三季度业绩亮 眼，整体收益同比激增245%-250%。其中，中国市场收益同比增长185%-190%。海外市场收益同比增长 365%-370%。不过，上述业绩并未阻止股价下跌。此前，伯恩斯坦驻香港亚洲消费股高级研究分析师胡 美林指出，围绕Labubu系列玩具的狂热情绪，正逐渐重现20世纪90年代"豆豆娃"从鼎盛走向崩盘的周 期。她认为市场对泡泡玛特下一个销售增长引擎存在质疑，这意味着股价上行空间有限。 泡泡玛特早盘低开低走，截至午间收盘，报201港元，跌幅达8.22%。与此同时，市场看空情绪持续升 温。12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空金额从2.41亿港元大幅上升至6.23亿港元。消息面上， 摩根士丹利近 期报告指出，泡泡玛特正从 ...

泡泡玛特(09992.HK)股价今日持续下行。截至发稿，跌8.95%，报199.40港元。 消息面上，据每日经济新闻报道，摩根士丹利（简称"大摩"）近期报告指出，泡泡玛特正在从过去两年的"爆发式增长"阶段，过渡到未来的"可 持续增长"阶段。该机构预测泡泡玛特2026年Labubu的收入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单一爆款转向非Labubu IP的多元化驱动。 该公司曾在2025年第三季度交出一份颇为亮眼的业绩，整体收益同比激增245%-250%。业绩大增主要是得益于泡泡玛特此前推出的Mini Labubu、SP不眠剧场等新品，叠加二季度预售发货的收入确认，直接推动业绩增长。此外，核心IP Labubu延续全球热度，成为关键增长动力。 | 十田 = | 期末息股本(万股) | 定容公用 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 卖空股数(万股) ; | 金额(亿元) ; | | 2025-12-08 | 134,294.32 | 305.12 | 6.23 | | 2025-12-05 | 134,294.32 | 161.70 | 3.51 | | 2025-12-04 | 13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. stock market and the structural trends in the Hong Kong stock market, analyzing the implications of tariff revenues and inflation on economic conditions and investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - Tariff revenues have significantly increased, with May's revenue reaching $22 billion, doubling from April's $16 billion, contributing to a total federal revenue increase of $48 billion year-over-year [2][3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable in May, with overall CPI and core CPI increasing by 0.08% and 0.13% respectively, leading to a year-over-year increase of only 1.6% [7][11]. - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, focusing on the future impacts of immigration policies on the labor market and wages, with current job openings and private non-farm payrolls showing positive trends [11][20]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Prices - The impact of tariffs on prices has been slow to materialize, with only specific categories like digital appliances seeing price increases, while core prices remain stable or declining [17][20]. - Future tariff negotiations could lead to an average increase of 10% in tariffs, which may improve price expectations in the U.S. [20]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced two major opportunities this year, driven by a re-evaluation of Chinese assets and an influx of liquidity due to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's actions [22][23]. - The current low borrowing costs in Hong Kong may continue to drive asset re-evaluation, particularly in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [24]. Group 4: Investment Performance - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio achieved a weekly return of 1.3%, outperforming major indices, with a total absolute return of 91% since its inception [27][29]. - Key contributors to the portfolio's performance included significant gains from stocks like Pop Mart, which saw an 11.4% increase due to strong market demand for its products [31]. Group 5: Stock Contributions - The portfolio's performance was bolstered by stocks such as Pop Mart and Disney, while stocks like Alibaba and Kweichow Moutai faced declines due to external market pressures [32]. - The analysis of individual stock movements highlights the importance of market sentiment and external factors influencing stock performance [32]. Group 6: Asset Allocation - The Alpha Dolphin portfolio is currently balanced with approximately 52% in equity assets and 48% in defensive assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds [33].

Group 1 - The Labubu toy series from Pop Mart has gained immense popularity both domestically and internationally, becoming a top search term on platforms like AliExpress, with over sixty pages of products listed and thousands of sales per store [1][3][10] - Labubu's appeal is attributed to its cute design and versatility, attracting a wide range of fans, including celebrities like David Beckham and members of Blackpink [5][10] - The success of Labubu reflects a broader trend of Chinese cultural products gaining traction overseas, moving beyond low-cost items to high-quality, innovative products that reshape foreign perceptions of contemporary China [3][11] Group 2 - The pricing of Labubu blind boxes in overseas markets typically starts at over $10, with some unique plush toys priced at over $100, indicating a successful premium positioning strategy [10] - Pop Mart's overseas revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 1.46 billion yuan, marking an 834% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from its official website and social media platforms [10] - The rise of Labubu and other Chinese toy brands like TOP TOY and 52 TOYS demonstrates a shift in the Chinese toy industry from OEM manufacturing to innovative brand development, with substantial export growth [11]