Core Insights - The report focuses on a trading timing strategy based on win rate, optimizing a multi-signal trading strategy structured around "trend identification, rhythm control, and signal integration" for interest rate futures T and TL [1][11][46] Group 1: Trading Timing Strategies - The report distinguishes between fundamental timing and trading timing, with fundamental timing focusing on macroeconomic factors and trading timing emphasizing market behavior and technical indicators [1][12] - A multi-signal strategy is proposed to enhance robustness, combining various sub-strategies to maintain signal stability and reduce trading frequency [3][45] Group 2: Sub-Strategies Overview - The report introduces several sub-strategies including low-latency trend identification, moment-based timing, single/double moving averages, channel filtering, and nine-turn sequence recognition [29][39][42] - Each sub-strategy is designed to address specific issues such as lagging signals and high-frequency noise, aiming for clearer structures and better adaptability in the interest rate futures market [28][30][38] Group 3: Performance Metrics - Backtesting results show that the multi-signal strategy for T yielded an annualized return of 8.63% with a Sharpe ratio of 3.04 and a win rate of 70.37%, while TL achieved an annualized return of 23.22% with a Sharpe ratio of 3.78 and a win rate of 80.77% [3][46][48] - The multi-signal strategy effectively mitigated significant drawdowns in February and July 2025, demonstrating strong defensive capabilities during volatile market conditions [47][48]

Product Update - CMC app now features RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators [1] - Users can now analyze charts and trade with these indicators on the CMC app [1] Mobile Trading - CMC provides access to favorite indicators on mobile devices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of simplifying trading strategies by focusing on a few reliable indicators rather than overwhelming oneself with numerous signals and tools [1][3][4] Group 1: Trading Strategies - Many retail investors tend to collect various trading indicators, leading to confusion and ineffective decision-making [3][4] - Successful trading requires a focus on a limited number of reliable signals, akin to a hunter tracking prey with a few well-practiced traps [4] - The article suggests that traders should eliminate unnecessary indicators and simplify their trading plans to enhance effectiveness [4] Group 2: Market Behavior - The chaotic nature of trading can be likened to a novice sailor overwhelmed by too many tools, which ultimately leads to disorientation [3] - The experience of seasoned traders shows that relying on a few key indicators can lead to significant gains, as demonstrated by an old trader who successfully used only a 60-day moving average and volume [4] - The article advocates for a disciplined approach to trading, where clarity and focus on essential signals can lead to better outcomes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator, describing it as a "trend detector" in the stock market that helps investors understand price movements and market sentiment. Group 1: MACD Overview - MACD consists of two lines (DIFF and DEA) and a histogram (energy bars), which visually represent market trends and momentum [3]. - The white line (DIFF) is the fast line, while the yellow line (DEA) is the slow line, with red and green bars indicating bullish and bearish momentum respectively [3]. Group 2: Practical Techniques - **Golden Cross and Death Cross**: A golden cross occurs when the DIFF line crosses above the DEA line, signaling a potential buying opportunity, while a death cross indicates a selling signal when the DIFF crosses below the DEA [4]. - **Energy Bars**: The appearance of red bars indicates bullish strength, while green bars suggest bearish pressure. The length of these bars reflects the intensity of the market movement [4]. - **Divergence**: A top divergence occurs when the stock price reaches a new high but the MACD does not, indicating potential weakness. Conversely, a bottom divergence suggests a possible reversal when the stock price hits a new low but the MACD does not [4]. Group 3: Practical Considerations - MACD is best suited for analyzing medium-term trends, such as 30-minute or daily charts, while it may be too sensitive for short-term analysis [5]. - In a volatile market, relying solely on MACD can be misleading; it is advisable to combine it with other indicators like moving averages for better accuracy [5]. - It is crucial to consider volume alongside MACD signals to avoid false indicators, as a lack of volume during a golden cross may suggest a weak signal [5].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing effective trading tools to achieve profitability in a competitive financial market. ZFX Shan Hai Securities offers a variety of powerful trading tools and technical support to help investors identify market opportunities and develop sound trading strategies for asset growth. Group 1: Market Analysis Tools - ZFX Shan Hai Securities provides various technical analysis tools, including moving averages (MA), MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands, to help traders capture market fluctuations. For instance, a short-term moving average crossing above a long-term moving average indicates a potential upward trend, suggesting a bullish entry point [3] - The MACD golden cross signals potential upward movement, while the death cross indicates possible downward opportunities. Combining these indicators can assist traders in accurately determining entry points [3] Group 2: Risk Management - Effective risk control is essential for trading success, and ZFX Shan Hai Securities offers automatic stop-loss and take-profit features. Traders can set stop-loss points at 1-2% below the entry price to minimize losses during market reversals [4] - Setting realistic profit targets based on market volatility rather than unrealistic expectations is crucial. The platform's automatic execution features enhance the scientific and disciplined nature of trading [4] Group 3: Automated Trading Strategies - ZFX Shan Hai Securities supports intelligent automated trading (EA systems), which is particularly beneficial for small traders seeking consistent profits. Traders can create or import automated programs that respond quickly to market changes, reducing emotional trading errors [5] - Strategies can be developed based on trend-following or breakout patterns, allowing for automatic opening and closing of positions when conditions are met [5] Group 4: Diversification of Assets - Investors can operate across multiple asset classes, such as forex, precious metals, commodities, and indices, on the ZFX Shan Hai Securities platform. Proper asset allocation can achieve risk diversification and reduce the impact of volatility from single trades [6] - The platform also provides asset correlation analysis tools to help traders adjust their portfolio ratios scientifically, enhancing capital efficiency [6] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis - Combining technical analysis with fundamental data significantly increases the success rate of trades. ZFX Shan Hai Securities offers real-time economic calendars and market news to help traders understand macroeconomic trends [7] - Key events, such as central bank interest rate decisions and non-farm payroll data, can lead to significant market movements. Utilizing the platform's resources for market predictions allows traders to position themselves effectively around critical data releases [7] Group 6: Practice and Strategy Optimization - The availability of free demo accounts on ZFX Shan Hai Securities allows traders to test strategies and hone their skills in a real market environment. Continuous simulation and optimization of trading rules can lead to a mature trading system [8] - This practice enables traders to better manage their positions and indicators, ultimately achieving stable profitability in real trading scenarios [8] Group 7: Trading Discipline and Psychology - While technical tools are essential, strong psychological resilience and discipline are fundamental to profitability. Traders should adhere to their trading plans and avoid impulsive decisions during volatile market conditions [9] - Utilizing ZFX Shan Hai Securities' risk monitoring and psychological support resources can enhance self-control, which is vital for achieving long-term profitability [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the financial products industry [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of momentum-driven technical analysis and risk management in the financial products sector, highlighting the dual framework of momentum and risk control [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Momentum-Driven Technical Analysis - The report discusses the momentum effect, indicating that assets generally exhibit a certain degree of trend persistence in the short term [13]. - Moving averages (MA) are defined as a key indicator for assessing momentum, helping to smooth price fluctuations and identify potential trends [14][15]. - The report categorizes moving averages into short-term, medium-term, and long-term, each serving different market analysis needs [16]. - The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is introduced as a significant technical analysis tool, consisting of the DIF line, DEA line, and MACD histogram, which helps investors grasp market trends [25][26]. - The report also covers the JAX (Jian Line) indicator, which combines price and volume data to assess medium to long-term trends and trading opportunities [34][35]. 2. Risk Management - The report introduces the Risk Degree Indicator (TR), which evaluates the relative position of assets in terms of risk, considering both spatial and temporal dimensions [45]. - The TR indicator operates within a normal range of 0 to 100, with higher values indicating increased investment risk and lower values suggesting reduced risk [50]. - Statistical analysis shows that the TR indicator effectively identifies local tops and bottoms in the A-share market, with a 45.74% probability of local lows occurring when TR is below 20 [50][51]. 3. Risk Trend Model - The report outlines a risk trend model that incorporates both momentum and risk dimensions to score assets, aiding in the development of timing strategies [44][49]. - It emphasizes the need for dynamic adjustments in parameters based on market conditions to enhance the accuracy of the JAX indicator [41][42]. 4. Timing Strategies - The report suggests constructing timing strategies based on historical data, with a focus on both periodic and non-periodic models to improve predictive effectiveness [44][49].