Core Insights - Anta Sports (02020) is expected to gradually reflect the results of its online and offline reforms, with a strong performance from its multi-brand matrix including FILA and outdoor brands [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating from Zheshang Securities, highlighting the vitality of its multi-brand strategy [1] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - Anta's Q3 revenue growth is in the low single digits, showing slight acceleration compared to Q2, with online growth in the high single digits [1] - Offline discounts are at 71%, year-on-year stable, while online discounts are at 50%, slightly deepening [1] - Inventory turnover ratio has slightly exceeded 5X due to increased stocking for Double Eleven [1] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's Q3 revenue growth is in the low single digits, with a slight deceleration compared to previous quarters, attributed to the delayed sales of autumn apparel due to higher temperatures in September [1] - Offline discounts are at 74%, while online discounts are at 58%, remaining stable on a month-on-month basis but slightly deepening year-on-year [1] - The inventory turnover ratio has increased to 6X due to Double Eleven preparations, with expectations to return to 5-6X by year-end [1] Group 3: Outdoor and Other Brands - The outdoor brand matrix continues to perform strongly, with Descente brand revenue growing by 30% in Q3 and KOLON brand revenue increasing by 70%, both maintaining a healthy discount of 90% [2] - Maia Active, a women's sports brand, saw a revenue increase of 45% in Q3, enhancing its brand influence and channel layout [2] - The global business of Wolf Claw has been consolidated since June, with an active brand revitalization strategy being developed [2]

Core Insights - The report from Zheshang Securities expresses optimism about Anta Sports' (02020) ongoing online and offline reforms, as well as the strong performance of its FILA and outdoor brand matrix, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [1] Group 1: Anta Sports Performance - Anta's Q3 revenue growth is in the low single digits, showing slight acceleration compared to Q2, with online growth in the high single digits [1] - Offline discounts are at 71%, remaining stable year-on-year, while online discounts have deepened to 50% [1] - The inventory-to-sales ratio has slightly exceeded 5X due to increased stocking for the Double Eleven shopping festival [1] - Adjustments in the e-commerce organizational structure are ongoing, focusing on inventory management and enhancing content on social media platforms like Douyin [1] - New store formats such as Champion, SV, and Palace are performing well, and the Super Anta store format is being actively refined [1] Group 2: FILA and Other Brands - FILA's Q3 revenue growth is in the low single digits, with a slight deceleration compared to previous months, attributed to delayed sales of autumn apparel due to higher temperatures in September [1] - Offline discounts for FILA are at 74%, while online discounts are stable at 58%, with the inventory-to-sales ratio increasing to 6X due to Double Eleven preparations, expected to return to 5-6X by year-end [1] - FILA held a strategic launch event in Q3, announcing Yun Chaoke as the brand ambassador and collaborating with Beijing Sport University and Beijing Institute of Fashion Technology to create a closed-loop ecosystem [1] - FILA is also the exclusive sports footwear and apparel sponsor for the China Open Tennis Tournament [1] Group 3: Outdoor Brands Performance - The outdoor brand matrix continues to thrive, with Descente achieving a 30% revenue growth in Q3, and KOLON seeing a 70% increase, both maintaining a healthy discount rate of 90% [2] - Maia Active, a women's sports brand, reported a 45% revenue growth in Q3, enhancing its brand influence and channel layout [2] - The global business of Wolf Claw has been consolidated since June, with an active brand revitalization strategy being developed [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports Products Limited (2020 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 110.90, reflecting a potential upside of 26.3% from the closing price of HKD 87.80 [2][5][9]. Core Insights - The third quarter performance showed weak revenue growth, leading management to lower the full-year guidance and adjust profit forecasts downwards. The main brand, Anta, is expected to see low single-digit growth, while FILA and other brands maintain mid-single-digit and over 40% growth expectations respectively [3][9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 1-3% due to a slowdown in industry recovery and increased competition, resulting in a 5-10% decrease in net profit projections for the same period [9][10]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term growth potential of the multi-brand strategy and operational resilience in a complex environment are viewed positively [9][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections (in million RMB) for the years ending December 31 are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 - 2024: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,080 - 2026E: 85,159 - 2027E: 91,473 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline from 16.2% in 2023 to 7.4% in 2027 [4][21]. - Net profit projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2023: 10,236 - 2024: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,320 - 2026E: 14,804 - 2027E: 15,927 - The expected earnings per share (in RMB) are projected to be 3.57 in 2023, increasing to 5.50 by 2027 [4][21]. Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue growth is expected to be low single-digit, with inventory turnover slightly above five months. The company is optimizing its channels, having completed around 100 store renovations [9][10]. - FILA's revenue growth has slowed to low single digits, with inventory turnover increasing to about six months due to preparations for the Double Eleven shopping festival [9][10]. - Other brands, such as Descente and KOLON, continue to show strong growth, with respective revenue increases of approximately 30% and 70% in the third quarter [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue and profit both showing double-digit growth, exceeding market expectations [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 increased by 14.3% year-on-year to 38.54 billion yuan, while operating profit grew by 17% to 10.13 billion yuan [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 7.031 billion yuan, with a comparable year-on-year growth of 14.5% after excluding one-time gains from the Amer Sports listing [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 1.37 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 50.2% [1] Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue was 16.95 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year, accounting for approximately 44.0% of total revenue [1] - Fila brand revenue reached 14.18 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase, with online sales growing at a double-digit rate [2] - Other brands, including Descente and Kolon, generated revenue of 7.412 billion yuan, a significant increase of 61.1% year-on-year [2] Channel Analysis - E-commerce revenue grew by 18%, accounting for 34.8% of total revenue, up from 33.8% in the first half of 2024 [3] - The number of offline stores showed slight changes, with Anta adult stores totaling 7,187, a net increase of 52 stores since the beginning of the year [3] Operational Efficiency - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4%, while the operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 26.3% [3] - Cash flow from operating activities increased by 29% to 10.9 billion yuan, with free cash flow remaining stable at 7.548 billion yuan [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company established a joint venture "MUSINSA China" to explore the integration of the fashion and sports industries, aiming to launch products that cater to young consumers' dual demands for functionality and style [4] - The company adjusted its annual guidance due to weaker consumer demand, with Anta's growth forecast revised from high single-digit to mid-single-digit growth [4] Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on its multi-brand matrix, anticipating continued growth potential despite the current challenges [5] - Net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 13.41 billion, 14.70 billion, and 16.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19, 18, and 16 times [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing stable growth in its main brand and FILA, while all other brands are showing rapid growth driven by the outdoor sports trend [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the main brand recorded low single-digit year-on-year growth, while FILA achieved mid single-digit growth, and all other brands saw a significant increase of 50-55% [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the main brand achieved mid single-digit year-on-year growth, FILA recorded high single-digit growth, and all other brands experienced a growth rate of 60-65% [1]. - The main brand's retail growth in Q2 was slightly below expectations, prompting a focus on the effectiveness of online and offline channel enhancement plans [1]. Group 2: Brand Performance - FILA's Q2 retail growth was in line with expectations, achieving mid single-digit year-on-year growth [2]. - The outdoor industry is thriving, with high demand for premium outdoor brands like Descente and KOLON, contributing to the rapid growth of all other brands [2]. - Maia Active is gaining momentum, with a new endorsement deal and the launch of a Yoga Studio store format expected to enhance brand visibility [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is recognized as a leading player in the sports footwear and apparel industry, with a strong competitive edge and significant growth potential through multi-brand operations and overseas expansion [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 13.5 billion, 15.567 billion, and 17.163 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -13.44%, 15.31%, and 10.25% [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to the stability provided by its main brand and FILA, along with growth potential in the outdoor segment [3].