盈利预测与投资建议 智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，维持安踏体育(02020)"买入"评级和目标价112.89港币，其联 营企业Amer Sports, Inc(亚玛芬体育)三季度业绩优异，公司旗下Fila、迪桑特、可隆等品牌在双十一表现强 劲，增长动力充足，体现了公司多品牌全球化的运营能力。 东方证券主要观点如下： 业绩表现 公司联营企业Amer(公司是其第一大股东)近日公布25年第三季度的经营业绩，营收同比增长30%，营业 利润同比增长22%，整体超过之前市场的预计。第三季度亚玛芬在全球四大区域市场均实现双位数营收 增长。其中，亚玛芬大中华区实现营收同比增长47%。伴随三季报，Amer同时上调25年全年的收入增 速由之前的20%-21%至23%-24%。该行认为Amer优异的三季报再次展现了公司收购其以后在全球化、 多品牌方面优秀的运营能力(除了始祖鸟，Amer旗下的萨洛蒙和威尔胜也开始焕发强劲的增长潜能)，同 时也部分反映之前的烟花事件对实际的销售影响相对有限。从财务角度，Amer业绩优异为安踏公司投 资收益提供了良好的保障。 Fila保持稳健增长，以迪桑特和可隆为首的其他品牌有望延续高增态势， ...

Core Insights - Anta Sports (02020) is expected to gradually reflect the results of its online and offline reforms, with a strong performance from its multi-brand matrix including FILA and outdoor brands [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating from Zheshang Securities, highlighting the vitality of its multi-brand strategy [1] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - Anta's Q3 revenue growth is in the low single digits, showing slight acceleration compared to Q2, with online growth in the high single digits [1] - Offline discounts are at 71%, year-on-year stable, while online discounts are at 50%, slightly deepening [1] - Inventory turnover ratio has slightly exceeded 5X due to increased stocking for Double Eleven [1] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's Q3 revenue growth is in the low single digits, with a slight deceleration compared to previous quarters, attributed to the delayed sales of autumn apparel due to higher temperatures in September [1] - Offline discounts are at 74%, while online discounts are at 58%, remaining stable on a month-on-month basis but slightly deepening year-on-year [1] - The inventory turnover ratio has increased to 6X due to Double Eleven preparations, with expectations to return to 5-6X by year-end [1] Group 3: Outdoor and Other Brands - The outdoor brand matrix continues to perform strongly, with Descente brand revenue growing by 30% in Q3 and KOLON brand revenue increasing by 70%, both maintaining a healthy discount of 90% [2] - Maia Active, a women's sports brand, saw a revenue increase of 45% in Q3, enhancing its brand influence and channel layout [2] - The global business of Wolf Claw has been consolidated since June, with an active brand revitalization strategy being developed [2]

Core Insights - The report from Zheshang Securities expresses optimism about Anta Sports' (02020) ongoing online and offline reforms, as well as the strong performance of its FILA and outdoor brand matrix, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [1] Group 1: Anta Sports Performance - Anta's Q3 revenue growth is in the low single digits, showing slight acceleration compared to Q2, with online growth in the high single digits [1] - Offline discounts are at 71%, remaining stable year-on-year, while online discounts have deepened to 50% [1] - The inventory-to-sales ratio has slightly exceeded 5X due to increased stocking for the Double Eleven shopping festival [1] - Adjustments in the e-commerce organizational structure are ongoing, focusing on inventory management and enhancing content on social media platforms like Douyin [1] - New store formats such as Champion, SV, and Palace are performing well, and the Super Anta store format is being actively refined [1] Group 2: FILA and Other Brands - FILA's Q3 revenue growth is in the low single digits, with a slight deceleration compared to previous months, attributed to delayed sales of autumn apparel due to higher temperatures in September [1] - Offline discounts for FILA are at 74%, while online discounts are stable at 58%, with the inventory-to-sales ratio increasing to 6X due to Double Eleven preparations, expected to return to 5-6X by year-end [1] - FILA held a strategic launch event in Q3, announcing Yun Chaoke as the brand ambassador and collaborating with Beijing Sport University and Beijing Institute of Fashion Technology to create a closed-loop ecosystem [1] - FILA is also the exclusive sports footwear and apparel sponsor for the China Open Tennis Tournament [1] Group 3: Outdoor Brands Performance - The outdoor brand matrix continues to thrive, with Descente achieving a 30% revenue growth in Q3, and KOLON seeing a 70% increase, both maintaining a healthy discount rate of 90% [2] - Maia Active, a women's sports brand, reported a 45% revenue growth in Q3, enhancing its brand influence and channel layout [2] - The global business of Wolf Claw has been consolidated since June, with an active brand revitalization strategy being developed [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports Products Limited (2020 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 110.90, reflecting a potential upside of 26.3% from the closing price of HKD 87.80 [2][5][9]. Core Insights - The third quarter performance showed weak revenue growth, leading management to lower the full-year guidance and adjust profit forecasts downwards. The main brand, Anta, is expected to see low single-digit growth, while FILA and other brands maintain mid-single-digit and over 40% growth expectations respectively [3][9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 1-3% due to a slowdown in industry recovery and increased competition, resulting in a 5-10% decrease in net profit projections for the same period [9][10]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term growth potential of the multi-brand strategy and operational resilience in a complex environment are viewed positively [9][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections (in million RMB) for the years ending December 31 are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 - 2024: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,080 - 2026E: 85,159 - 2027E: 91,473 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline from 16.2% in 2023 to 7.4% in 2027 [4][21]. - Net profit projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2023: 10,236 - 2024: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,320 - 2026E: 14,804 - 2027E: 15,927 - The expected earnings per share (in RMB) are projected to be 3.57 in 2023, increasing to 5.50 by 2027 [4][21]. Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue growth is expected to be low single-digit, with inventory turnover slightly above five months. The company is optimizing its channels, having completed around 100 store renovations [9][10]. - FILA's revenue growth has slowed to low single digits, with inventory turnover increasing to about six months due to preparations for the Double Eleven shopping festival [9][10]. - Other brands, such as Descente and KOLON, continue to show strong growth, with respective revenue increases of approximately 30% and 70% in the third quarter [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" [2][5][10] Core Views - In Q3 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA achieved low single-digit growth, while other brands experienced a significant growth of 45-50%. The overall growth of the Anta Group remains stable, but the growth rate has slowed compared to Q2 [3][4][6] - The management has lowered the annual revenue guidance for the Anta brand but maintained the operating profit margin guidance and revenue growth guidance for FILA and other brands [4][5][10] - The consumer market continues to face pressure, and the management has adjusted the annual guidance to low single-digit growth due to uncertainties in the fourth quarter [5][10] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth, while FILA also achieved low single-digit growth. Other brands continued their high growth trajectory [3][4] - The inventory turnover ratio is healthy, influenced by promotional stock preparations, with the end-of-quarter inventory turnover ratio approaching six months [4][6] Brand Performance - Anta brand's Q3 revenue growth was low single-digit, with online discounts slightly increasing and stable offline discounts. The performance of running shoes and technological new products was notable [6][7] - FILA's Q3 revenue growth was also low single-digit, with a healthy inventory turnover ratio and stable discount rates [8] - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, saw revenue growth of 45-50%, with Descente growing approximately 30% and KOLON growing 70% [9][10] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit for Anta from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 13.24 billion, 15.22 billion, and 17.16 billion yuan respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of 11.0%, 15.0%, and 12.7% [5][12] - The reasonable valuation range is adjusted to 116-121 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23-24X for 2025 [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding the "Anatomy of the Ancestor Bird" event has negatively impacted Anta Sports' stock performance and raised concerns about its ESG ratings due to governance and ecological risk management failures [2][3][4][5] Company Performance - Anta Sports' stock price fell by 2.22% on September 22 and continued to decline by 0.95% on September 23, bringing its total market capitalization to 263.2 billion HKD [3] - The company reported a revenue of 38.544 billion CNY in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.031 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.9% [7] ESG Considerations - The incident has the potential to negatively affect Anta Sports' ESG ratings, particularly in environmental and governance dimensions, as sub-brands' actions are included in the overall assessment [4][5] - The response to the controversy will significantly influence the extent of the impact on Anta's ESG ratings, with effective remedial actions potentially mitigating negative effects [5] Multi-Brand Strategy - Anta Sports has pursued an aggressive multi-brand acquisition strategy, acquiring brands such as Amer Sports, FILA, and Descente, which has contributed to revenue growth [7][8] - However, the complexity of managing multiple brands has led to increased operational challenges, including a rise in average inventory turnover days to 136 days, an increase of 22 days compared to the previous year [8][9] Market Challenges - The competitive landscape in the sportswear industry is intensifying, with Anta facing challenges in maintaining brand identity and operational efficiency across its diverse portfolio [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Negative public opinion is currently limited to the brand Arc'teryx, which is owned by Anta's joint venture partner Amer Sports [1] - Anta's direct outdoor brands, Descente and Kolon, are likely to be minimally affected [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on Anta with a target price of HKD 111.60 [1] Company Analysis - The negative sentiment surrounding Arc'teryx does not extend to Anta's other brands [1] - The impact on Anta's direct brands is expected to be negligible, indicating resilience in its portfolio [1] Market Outlook - Citigroup's positive outlook on Anta suggests confidence in the company's performance despite external challenges [1] - The target price reflects potential growth opportunities within the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group is committed to a global strategy that emphasizes local market adaptation while maintaining brand identity, aiming to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia over the next three years [2][3]. Group 1: Global Strategy and Market Expansion - Anta Group has established its Southeast Asia headquarters in Singapore, using it as a base to strengthen market advantages and expand into South Asia, Australia, and New Zealand [3]. - The company employs a direct-to-consumer (DTC) approach, utilizing a "single platform, multiple brands, all-channel" model to operate various brands, including Anta, Fila, Descente, Salomon, and Wilson [3][4]. - In Southeast Asia, Anta Group is leveraging sports resources by collaborating with local sports organizations to host events and create job opportunities, with over 400 local positions created at the Singapore headquarters [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - Anta's revenue in the Southeast Asian market is projected to grow nearly 100% year-on-year by the first half of 2025, while overseas business revenue has increased by over 150% due to new operations in the U.S. and the Middle East [5]. - The company has adopted a strategy of acquiring high-end brands to penetrate competitive markets in Europe and North America, establishing a strong global brand image from the outset [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - Anta Group maintains a strategic focus on "single focus, multiple brands, globalization," aiming to meet diverse consumer needs across various categories and scenarios [6]. - The global sports goods market presents significant growth potential for Anta's multi-brand strategy, which is expected to drive long-term performance and open up broader premium pricing opportunities [6].

Core Insights - Anta Sports announced its goal to implement a thousand-store plan for the Anta brand in Southeast Asia over the next three years [1] - The company's Southeast Asia business revenue is expected to nearly double year-on-year by the first half of 2025, driven by high-value products, localization, and digital strategies [1] - Anta's strategy of "single platform, multiple brands, and all-channel" has successfully expanded into Southeast Asia, validated through operations of other brands like Fila and Descente [1] Group 1 - Anta Sports participated in the third Asian Vision Forum in Singapore to share its globalization strategy and progress in the Southeast Asian market [1] - The company has established its Southeast Asia headquarters in Singapore to strengthen its market position and expand into South Asia, Australia, and New Zealand [1] - Anta's overseas business revenue has increased by over 150% year-on-year, supported by new offline operations in the US and the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes a strategy of "global thinking and local execution" in Southeast Asia, exploring replicable models for overseas expansion [1] - Anta and Amer Sports have nearly 30% of their global market share outside of China [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group announced its goal to implement a thousand-store plan for the Anta brand in Southeast Asia over the next three years, aiming for nearly double year-on-year revenue growth by the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Globalization Strategy - Anta Group's globalization process is divided into three phases: establishing international brand presence in China, expanding global brand operations, and promoting Chinese brands globally [1] - The company is currently focused on the third phase of its globalization strategy [1] Group 2: Southeast Asia Operations - Anta Group has established its Southeast Asia headquarters in Singapore to strengthen its market position and plans to expand into South Asia, Australia, and New Zealand [1] - The company employs a "single platform, multiple brands, all-channel" model to operate various brands under Anta Group and Amer Sports, including Anta, Fila, Descente, Salomon, and Wilson [1] - This model aims to create a seamless online and offline sales ecosystem for each brand [1]